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About me


I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

I'm a big-time sports fan, a politics, media & law junkie, an astronomy buff, a weather nerd, an Apple aficionado, a Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter fanatic, and an all-around dork. My blog is best-known for its coverage of Hurricane Katrina, but I blog about anything and everything that interests me.

You can contact me at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com, or donate to my "tip jar" by clicking the link below:

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Iran

Diplomacy is not appeasement

By Brendan Loy

Since I keep referencing it, but I haven't actually stated my position on it, I figured I should probably weigh in on yesterday's controversial statement by President Bush at the Israeli Knesset:

Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: "Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided." We have an obligation to call this what it is – the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.

Now, let me begin by pointing out that I myself have made the "appeasement" argument before. Specifically, in response to posters that were plastered around USC's campus in the immediate wake of 9/11 by anti-war activists (against the Afghanistan war, mind you), which stated "WAR IS ALSO TERRORISM," I made some rebuttal signs that stated, "APPEASEMENT IS ALSO SURRENDER." When I chose those words, I was responding to the then-common far-left credo that our reaction to 9/11 should involve withdrawing from the Middle East, closing our bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, etc. -- in other words, making specific, substantive concessions to Al Qaeda's demands.

Similarly, in 2005, I wrote on the blog that we should not withdraw from Iraq simply because the terrorists want us to:

The Islamist radicals don’t just want us out of their backyards — they want to take over ours. Just like we were foolish to ignore Hitler’s long-term goals for “Greater Germany” and pretend that he would be satisfied with a few incremental concessions here and there, we are foolish to ignore the Islamists’ long-term goal of a worldwide Islamic state.

Withdrawing from Iraq for fear of further attacks would not stop them — it would not even slow them down. On the contrary, it would encourage them, because it would show them that they can convince us to change our policies by terrorizing us. It would give them reason to hope that, with a few more attacks and a few more surrenders, maybe they really will be able to see the Islamic flag flying over the whole world. We must not feed that fantasy.

That’s not to say the Iraq war is necessarily justified — that’s a separate debate, but the debate must be conducted on our terms, not theirs. Whatever else might be said about Iraq, the terrorists’ ire is NOT a valid reason to consider withdrawing. Appeasement is not the answer.

Again, in raising the specter of "appeasement" and World War II, I was addressing a specific substantive concession that I believed we should not make, at least not for the reason stated. Now, you can argue the merits of my point, but it is at least within the realm of rationality to claim that such an action would indeed be "appeasement."

President Bush's comment, by contrast, is not within the realm of rationality. He is claiming that the mere act of sitting down and negotiating with an enemy is tantamount to "appeasement." That is absolutely absurd. Bush needs to look up a dictionary definition of the damn word he's talking about. American Heritage defines "appeasement" as "the policy of granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." Concessions. Not negotiations. In no version of reality is the mere act of negotiating "appeasement."

Now, it's perfectly fair to debate whether Obama's stated willingness to meet with Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad without preconditions is a good idea. I'm not at all sure it is, and my uncertainty on that point is one reason (among many) that I'm undecided between Obama and McCain. The mere act of engaging in negotiations does have certain potential negative consequences, particularly when you're the world's unipolar power -- it tends to bestow a certain veneer of legitimacy to the other side, it can be a propaganda coup, etc. These factors need to be considered, and weighed against the potential positive consequences. That is an important debate to have.

But regardless of where you come down in that debate, calling the simple act of negotiating "appeasement" is clearly incorrect. It's not "appeasement" unless you concede something. Period.

If you want to argue that merely negotiating with one's enemies is itself inherently a "concession," then what do you make of the many times throughout our history that U.S. presidents, Republican and Democrat alike, have met with our enemies, sometimes with great success? Remember "only Nixon can go to China"? How about Reagan's meetings with Gorbachev, which helped end the Cold War? (Hat tip: David K.) Were those revered Republican presidents "appeasing" China and Russia, merely by meeting with them? Or does the substance of the negotiations determine whether they engaged in "appeasement"?

The answer is head-smackingly obvious, to the point that anyone who responds incorrectly is either an idiot or a liar. It is substantive concessions that matter. Thus, for instance, it is fair to argue -- not necessarily correct, but plausibly arguable -- that President Clinton "appeased" North Korea by essentially paying them off to halt (or pretend to halt) their nuclear ambitions. It is not, however, fair to argue that a President Obama would inherently be "appeasing" them merely by re-opening direct talks. You can't make any kind of judgment on the issue of "appeasement" without getting into the substance of the potential talks.

The last time I checked, neither Barack Obama nor any other major Democratic figure is promising any specific substantive concessions to Iran, nor to any other "terrorists [or] radicals." Bush himself actually acknowledged this point, unintentionally no doubt, when he mockingly described the Dems' position as a belief that "some ingenious argument will persuade [the terrorists and radicals] they have been wrong all along." If that were really the Dems' goal, as Bush asserts, then it would be foolish and naive, but it would not be "appeasement." Even if we credit Bush's own straw-man version of the Democrats' position, he's still wrong. Trying to convince someone they're wrong is not the same thing as "appeasing" them!

Of course, in reality, the goals of diplomacy are varied and complex, and again, we can and should debate what those goals should be, whether direct negotiation is worth the costs, etc. But dismissing the whole project as, by its very nature, "appeasement," is simply a lie.

Nor is this just some minor semantic debate. The word "appeasement" has a very specific and loaded historical meaning in geopolitical discourse, as Bush knows perfectly well. He made this explicit with his reference to Hitler, but he didn't need to. Everybody knows, when you're talking about "appeasement," that you're referring to Neville Chamberlain and his decision to give Hitler the Sudetenland, in hopes of achieving "peace in our time." That foolish action was, of course, a textbook case of "granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." That was appeasement.

But the mere fact that Chamberlain talked to Hitler wasn't "appeasement"! What made it "appeasement" is what he did at those talks: he made a concession that he shouldn't have made. Bush has offered no evidence, nor even an argument, that the Democrats would follow the same course as Chamberlain in that regard. He therefore has no business invoking Chamberlain and Hitler to make his point.

What's really sad about this whole kerfuffle is that, as I said, there is actually a very serious and important issue that underlies all this bulls**t and malarkey. But now that's all become obscured by Bush's despicable rhetoric and the Democrats' justifiably angry rebuttals. Basically, what's now happening to our political discourse on the important issue of how we should approach diplomacy with our enemies is precisely what happens on the Internet whenever somebody breaks Godwin's Law and inappropriately invokes Hitler. Our president yesterday became a glorified message-board troll.

One other point: I don't personally get too riled up about the whole "politics stops at the water's edge" thing. I'm not saying it isn't a good principle, necessarily, but it's just not something that personally makes my blood boil. However, it is something that Republicans and conservatives tend to get very worked up over. God forbid a liberal public figure should ever say anything critical of our foreign policy overseas! Any time they do so, even arguably, the right wing predictably erupts in a paroxysm of rage. For heaven's sake, Natalie Manies of the Dixie Chicks was pilloried for the fact that she dared speak ill of President Bush in England, and she's a freakin' singer. And I know there are examples of even more righteous outrage when it's an actual Democratic politician who does this, though I can't remember details off hand. The point is, this is very much a sore spot on the Right.

So, against that backdrop, it is totally hypocritical for anyone who has ever invoked the "politics stops at the water's edge" principle to in any way condone Bush's remarks yesterday. He went before the legislature of a foreign nation and, acting in his capacity as head of state, made a clearly political argument designed to attack the other party and its presumptive nominee. (And don't even start with the "he wasn't referring to Obama" nonsense, or the "Obama doth protest too much" absurdity. Just don't. That's beyond Hillaryesque in its disregard for the truth. Of course he was talking about Obama, you nitwits. And acknowledging that obvious fact in no way acknowledges the truth of the criticism. Go back to third grade art class and rejoin the discussion when you have something meaningful to contribute.) As such, he has specifically validated the practice of taking our internal political debates overseas, in the most ostentatious way imaginable. If you're okay with that, fine. But don't you dare ever criticize any Democrat or liberal ever again for doing the same thing in reverse.

World War III delayed by spook nuke rebuke

By Brendan Loy

Between college football chaos and baby preparations, I haven't had much time to follow the news lately, but the big story from a couple days ago is that Iran apparently isn't going nuclear after all, at least not as imminently as we feared:

A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.

The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to reshape the final year of the Bush administration, which has made halting Iran’s nuclear program a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran is likely keeping its options open with respect to building a weapon, but that intelligence agencies “do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.”

Iran is continuing to produce enriched uranium, a program that the Tehran government has said is designed for civilian purposes. The new estimate says that enrichment program could still provide Iran with enough raw material to produce a nuclear weapon sometime by the middle of next decade, a timetable essentially unchanged from previous estimates.

But the new estimate declares with “high confidence” that a military-run Iranian program intended to transform that raw material into a nuclear weapon has been shut down since 2003, and also says with high confidence that the halt “was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure.”

The estimate does not say when American intelligence agencies learned that the weapons program had been halted, but a statement issued by Donald Kerr, the principal director of national intelligence, said the document was being made public “since our understanding of Iran’s capabilities has changed.”

Rather than painting Iran as a rogue, irrational nation determined to join the club of nations with the bomb, the estimate states Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.” The administration called new attention to the threat posed by Iran earlier this year when President Bush had suggested in October that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to “World War III” and Vice President Dick Cheney promised “serious consequences” if the government in Tehran did not abandon its nuclear program.

I haven't read much of anything in the way of commentary on this, so I can only assume that the right is spinning this as "Iran is still a threat, those intelligence guys are a bunch of liberal ninnies anyway" and the left is spinning it as "See! See! We told you! Bush lies! It's a rush to war!" But if anyone can point me to some actually insightful commentary on the issue, I'd certainly be interested in reading it.

Personally, my initial take is that, first of all, this report, if accurate, is obviously a good thing, notwithstanding the fact that it gives Mad Mahmoud an opportunity to declare "victory" (he's kind of a cheap date, ain't he?), because Iran without nukes > Iran with nukes, and also, no war > war. It's only if those two equations come into conflict that we have a major problem, and this report -- particularly the part I boldfaced in the last blockquoted paragraph -- seems to suggest that maybe, just maybe, they might not come into conflict after all.

Also, frankly, even if we still have to eventually confront Iran over its nuclear ambitions (or about something else), it would be far better if we can wait until the president is no longer named Bush. He's damaged goods both internationally and domestically, and his incompetent administration has generally proven incapable of successfully carrying out its objectives even when those objectives are correct. So even delaying a confrontation would be a good thing, in my mind (provided that the delay doesn't worsen the problem, obviously), though obviously not as good as avoiding it altogether.

Secondly, the release of this report is actually a major rebuke to the "Bush lied" crowd. If the administration was the evil, soulless, fascist warmongering machine that so many on the left believe it is, then how did this report even get released? It sure throws a monkey wrench into the "Bush's rush to war" narrative when the president's own administration is releasing reports (with a big media splash, no less) that discredit said alleged rush. And if you want to respond that "Bush doesn't control these people," that rather seriously complicates the argument that he muzzled them in the run-up to Iraq. Either the spooks are his puppets or they're not, and if they're not, they must have actually believed the faulty intelligence on Iraq's WMD, no? In which case, Bush didn't lie! Either way, the release of this report almost seems to suggest that most people in the administration (possibly even including the president!) actually, you know, care about the facts, and are motivated by a genuine desire to do the right thing (leaving aside the separate question of whether that desire is misguided in a given instance), rather than by a motivation to take over the Middle East for oil profits, or kill all the brown people, or whatever it is the Kos & Kucinich Kidz are accusing them of these days. I am shocked, shocked I tell you.

Anyway, in summary, No Iranian nukes = good. No World War III = good. Honesty with the American people = good. Bush = incompetent, not evil. And that's about as sophisticated as my commentary is going to get at the moment. I'm curious what y'all think, though.

P.S. In other news, Dick Cheney says Democratic representatives John Dingell and John Murtha have small penises. Hey, remember that time Dick Cheney shot a guy in the face? HAHAHA. That was awesome.

S**t, fan on collision course

By Brendan Loy

Pakistan continues to go to hell in a handbasket, and Iran's nuclear ambitions have reached a critical, potentially war-triggering juncture.

Why do I suddenly have Tom Lehrer running through my head? "This is the song that some of the boys sang as they went bravely off to World War III..."

Anyway, this has been your international news update. We now return you to your BCS controversy, Hollywood writer's strike, and Trials of the Century (O.J. and Barry), already in progress.

Will Israel bomb Iran?

By Brendan Loy

The Times of London reports:

A claim by President Ahmadinejad that Iran has 3,000 working uranium-enriching centrifuges sent a tremor across the world yesterday amid fears that Israel would respond by bombing the country’s nuclear facilities.

Military sources in Washington said that the existence of such a large number could be a “tipping point”, triggering an Israeli air strike. The Pentagon is reluctant to take military action against Iran, but officials say that Israel is a “different matter”. Amid the international uproar, British MPs who were to have toured the nuclear facility were backing out of their Iran trip.

Even before President Ahmadinejad’s announcement, a US defence official told The Times yesterday: “Israel could do something when they get to around 3,000 working centrifuges. The Pentagon is minded to wait a little longer.” US experts say 3,000 machines running for long periods could make enough enriched uranium for an atomic bomb within a year.

Somebody get Les Miles over there, stat.

Bush warns of "World War III" if Iran gets nukes

By Brendan Loy

I have no problem with hawkish bloggers and columnists saying things like this, but, um, shouldn't the President of the United States be a little bit more circumspect with his rhetoric?

"We've got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel," Bush said at a White House press conference after Russia cautioned against military action against Tehran's supect atomic program. "So I've told people that, if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon," said Bush.

I agree that Iran's nuclear ambitions are a grave threat to world peace, and not just because there are some trigger-happy people in the White House right now (though, that too). But I'm not convinced that having the president say things like this, in public -- even if arguably somewhat true -- makes things better. Perhaps I'm wrong, though. Thoughts?

UPDATE: Via Hot Air by way of InstaPundit, here's the video:

In a related story, Bush still can't say "nuclear."

Vlad & Mahmoud

By Brendan Loy

This picture makes me nervous, somehow:

Story here.

Quote of the day

By Brendan Loy

Justice Clarence Thomas: "About the only way I would get invited to Columbia is if I was a Middle East dictator with nuclear weapons." Heh! (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

Hook 'em, Hitlers!

By Brendan Loy

Following hot on the heels of yesterday's proof that Bush is Hitler, now we have proof that the Texas Longhorns are evil -- or at least, that they're supported by both President Bush, who the Left believes is Hitler, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who the Right believes is Hitler! Texas: favorite team of the Little Hitlers! Mack Brown, Colt McCoy and Limas Sweed are the new axis of evil!

P.S. This post invokes Godwin's Law on the Texas football season, which means the Longhorns are now obligated to forfeit all of their remaining games. Congratulations, Oklahoma, you've just won the Big 12 South. :)

There are no cats in America gays in Iran

By Brendan Loy

So says Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It would be funny, because of its blatant absurdity, if it weren't coming from someone whose government executes gays as a matter of policy.

Also, it seems Columbia President Lee Bollinger gave Mad Mahmoud quite a mouthful in his introductory remarks. (Hat tip: InstaPundit.) I haven't watched the video yet, but it sounds like a pretty awesome, and well-deserved, "string of insults," as Ahmadinejad put it later, taking umbrage just as he took umbrage at Mike Wallace daring to ask direct and forceful questions on 60 Minutes. (You'll have to forgive Mahmoud; he's not too familiar with the whole "free speech" thing.)

Less awesome is the fact that, apparently, Ahmadinejad got a good reception from some of the far-left idiots in attendance at the Columbia event. Anybody who childishly mimicks anti-Bush talking point is okay by them, I guess. Some think he's "entirely reasonable." Some even have crushes on him! And some were utterly humiliated by President Bollinger's factually accurate "insults," and cheered and applauded Ahmadinejad when he criticized Bollinger's lack of "manners." I guess some folks weren't really interested in a free and unfettered exchange of ideas, including harsh criticisms and tough questions for Dear Leader Mahmoud?

But hey, although they might not realize it, those Ahmadinejad-apologist fools are actually an unwitting testament to what's great about America: in this country, you have the unalienable right to be an idiot -- and more to the point, the unalienable right to speak out against your government, no matter how wrong-headed your views might be. Imagine if George W. Bush (or, ahem, perhaps a slightly more articulate American leader) came to speak at a university in Iran, and started reciting anti-Ahmadinejad talking points. There might be some Iranian dissidents who would cheer, but they would do so at great personal risk, as they could potentially be arrested or even killed if the government deemed them enough of a threat. Certainly, the government would do everything in its power to exclude them from the lecture hall if it could identify them in advance, thus producing a mirage of monolithic anti-American sentiment. In this country, by contrast, no such effort was made; the government did not try to "manage" the event so as to make sure the audience response was uniformly anti-Ahmadinejad. The marketplace of ideas was allowed to do its thing, unfettered and unimpeded, and thus, unlike in Iran, and unlike in the fanciful dystopia that some radical lefties erroneously believe they are currently living in -- y'know, Chimpy W. Hitler's fascist police state of Amerikka -- the result was the gloriously messy cacophony of viewpoints that can only happen in a free country. Somehow I suspect the amazing virtue of that reality will be lost on Mahmoud, but we shouldn't let it be lost on us.

U.S. v. Iran: stepping up the warmongering

By Brendan Loy

"Did Mr Bush last week set America inexorably on a path to the next war?"

If so, I somehow think the fallout (no pun intended) will last a wee bit longer than three days.

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