Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Hurricane season preview

By Brendan Loy

My preview of the hurricane season is up on Pajamas Media. Perhaps the most interesting point is this:

There...seems to be a new focus among the [seasonal] forecasters on explaining the uncertainties inherent in their task. NOAA, for instance, now includes percentage probabilities along with its predictions of storm activity, somewhat like the margin of error in a public opinion poll. And the margin is quite high: “an above-normal season is most likely (65% chance), [but] there is a significant 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.” (Definitions here.) “This outlook is probabilistic, not deterministic,” NOAA’s introduction states. It is “based on predictions of large-scale climate factors known to be strong indicators of upcoming seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity,” but there are “uncertainties inherent in such climate outlooks,” which the percentage probabilities are designed to take into account. ...

Still, despite these acknowledged uncertainties, and despite the recent failures, forecasters have soldiered on and tried their best to accurately predict the 2008 season. In fact, the Klotzbach/Gray team has based its forecast on a newly tweaked model, designed to correct some of the errors of previous years. Cynics might compare this to college football’s BCS, which has repeatedly changed its formula to compensate for previous years’ problems — the sports equivalent of “hindcasting” — only to see brand new problems develop in subsequent seasons.

On the other hand, this is how the science evolves, and Klotzbach and Gray are forthright in admitting that it is a work in progress. In any event, “hindcasts” based on the new model come much closer to the mark than the real-time forecasts did in all of the last four years, which is significant, since 2004 and 2005 were both well above average (and were under-forecasted), while 2006 and 2007 were below average (and were over-forecasted). “The new hindcast model improves upon our real-time forecasts by approximately 60%…over the period from 2004-2007,” Klotzbach and Gray write.

Read the whole thing.

P.S. Naturally, the comments are all about... you guessed it... global warming. *sigh*

T.S. Arthur forms

By Brendan Loy

As foreshadowed below, Tropical Storm Arthur has formed -- one day before the "official" start of the Atlantic season -- from the remnants of Pacific T.S. Alma. It was actually designated a T.S. while over the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm out and about right now; details when I get home.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: Arthur didn't form over land; it formed "near the coast of Belize," according to the 1:00 PM special advisory that designated it. It was over land by the time the 2:00 PM advisory was issued, which is what I was reading when I wrote this post on my cell phone.

No word yet from Alan Sullivan considers the NHC's designation of Arthur "count-padding." Anyway...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND LATER TODAY...

... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

After the expected weakening, Arthur could re-strengthen in the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico, according to Eric Berger and Dr. Jeff Masters.

Alma could re-form as Arthur

By Brendan Loy

Will the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season be... the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season?

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.

In some instances, a storm can retain its name when crossing from one basin to another. I forget the exact criteria for that, but I believe it has to do with whether the old storm retains its circulation, as opposed to merely its moisture. Given the NHC's reference to the "remants of former" Alma, and the statement that "a tropical depression could form" (as opposed to re-form), I think they're contemplating designating it as a new storm -- in which case it would be named Arthur, if it reaches tropical storm status in the Atlantic basin. Weather Matrix agrees.

Meanwhile, weather Alan Sullivan, who correctly bucked the predictions of an active season last year, writes: "The Atlantic is way too active for so early in the season."

Alma

By Brendan Loy

The first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season (which starts annually on May 15, roughly two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season) has formed. Its name is Tropical Storm Alma, and it could cause a major flooding disaster in Central America.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Sunday -- not that that means anything, of course. The first named Atlantic storm will be Arthur.

Invade Burma?

By Brendan Loy

Last weekend, there was an interesting discussion in comments here on the blog about the merits of forcably bringing humanitarian aid to the people of Burma/Myanmar, the junta be damned. Now the New Yorker's George Packer ponders the same question, asking, "Should Burma Be Saved from Itself?" He writes:

Forcing the regime to let the rest of the world save its people would have a devastating effect on morale. Burma’s leaders are so isolated and irrational that they actually believe their own propaganda about being the only group that can hold the country together. It’s possible that the junta would collapse out of sheer humiliation. It’s also possible, though it seems unlikely to me, that Burmese military units would be ordered to engage the foreigners. Shots might be fired, people might be killed. No one knows what will happen if British sailors and American airmen arrive on soggy Burmese soil. Hanging over the question is, of course, Iraq. No one expects an intervention to go smoothly anymore; now we expect it to go terribly wrong. I doubt the American, British, French, Australian, and other governments, with or without U.N. consent, will decide to invade Burma with boxes of oral rehydration kits and high-energy biscuits. But if the fear of Baghdad and Falluja is what keeps foreign powers from saving huge numbers of Burmese from their own government’s callousness, that will be one more tragic consequence of the Iraq war.

On the other hand, if it’s going to be done, it should be done quickly. I know all the arguments why we shouldn’t. But there are at least a million counterarguments why we should.

Andrew Sullivan links to Packer's piece, and explicitly jumps on the bandwagon with the title, "Invade Burma, Please." He writes: "A brief, decisive international effort to reach the starving and sick seems important to me. If it helps demystify this vile regime, great. But in its demonstration of humanity, it is also a great way for the US to enhance its soft power in the developing world."

Discuss.

P.S. Meanwhile, Dr. Jeff Masters notes that the seasonal monsoon rains are rapidly approaching the Irrawaddy Delta.

Charity Bowl '08: represent, USC & ND!

By Brendan Loy

Every Day Should Be Saturday is running a contest that gives all you college sports fans an opportunity to help the victims of the recent spate of disasters -- the Burma cyclone, the China earthquake, the Midwest tornadoes -- while simultaneously showing your team pride. Here's how it works:

1) Make a donation online to the American Red Cross, CARE, or the International Rescue Committee.

2) Email the donation confirmation to kevin@fanblogs.com and state your team affiliation by 8pm EDT on Wednesday, May 14th.

3) Results will be displayed at Every Day Should Be Saturday and Fanblogs throughout the week, with the final results shown by Thursday, May 15th.

4) The winning school will have its colors displayed at EDSBS and logo/mascot shown on every page at Fanblogs.

Things are looking dismal in the current standings for both USC and Notre Dame. Neither school shows up in the Top 10, and in fact, if EDSBS is counting ND as part of the "Big East" for purposes of their conference standings, it appears that zero dollars have been donated by fans of either school. (The Pac-10 and Big East are tied for last place with $0.)

So, pony up, Irish and Trojan fans! We can't let freakin' Michigan -- in first place with $1,000 -- win this thing.

Will Cyclone Nargis lead to the downfall of the Myanmar regime?

By Brendan Loy

As the government of Burma/Myanmar continues to show more interest in chasing down CNN reporters than in trying to prevent a holocaust in the Irrawaddy Delta, meteorologist and weatherblogger Dr. Jeff Masters puts the junta's despicable actions in historical context:

[T]he criminal indifference of the nation's leaders towards the plight of the cyclone's survivors will doom hundreds or thousands more to death or terrible suffering. One can only hope that the people of Myanmar will rise up and put an end to Myanmar's dictatorship as a result of this awful tragedy.

There is historical precedent for this sort of occurrence. The deadliest tropical cyclone of all time, the Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970, killed upwards of 550,000 people is what was then called East Pakistan (and now called Bangladesh). A statement released by eleven political leaders in East Pakistan ten days after the cyclone hit charged the government with "gross neglect, callous indifference and utter indifference". They also accused the president of playing down the news coverage. The dissatisfaction with the government response to the disaster boiled over into full-fledged civil war the next year, which ultimately led to the overthrow of the government and the establishment of the new nation of Bangladesh. As bad as the West Pakistani response to the Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970 was, the response of the Myanmar government to Nargis is far worse. The slowness of response to this tropical cyclone disaster is unprecedented in modern times.

It makes the U.S. and Louisiana governments' response to Hurricane Katrina seems like a model of efficiency by comparison. Here's an overview of what's happening:

More aid is on the way to cyclone-ravaged Myanmar - but so is the heavy rain... [and] relief workers, including Americans, [are] still being barred entry. ...

Officials have said only one out of 10 people who are homeless, injured or threatened by disease and hunger have received some kind of aid in the week since the cyclone hit.

The government, which wants full control of relief operations, has less than 40 helicopters, most of them small or old. It also has only about 15 transport planes, primarily small jets unable to carry hundreds of tons of supplies.

"Not only don't they have the capacity to deliver assistance, they don't have experience," said Mark Farmaner, director of the pro-democracy Burma Campaign UK. "It's already too late for many people. Every day of delays is costing thousands of lives."

On Friday, Myanmar's military rulers seized two planeloads containing enough high-energy biscuits to feed 95,000 people sent by the U.N. World Food Program, which briefly suspended help after the action. The U.N. later agreed to send two more planes to help survivors.

The government acknowledged taking control of the shipments and said it plans to distribute the aid itself to affected areas. ...

The U.N. has grown increasingly critical of Myanmar's refusal to let in foreign aid workers who could assess the extent of the disaster with the junta apparently overwhelmed. None of the 10 visa applications submitted by the WFP has been approved. ...

Myanmar says it will accept aid from all countries, but prohibits the entry of foreign workers who would deliver and manage the operations. The junta is not ready to change that position, [Shari Villarosa, the U.S. charge d'affairs in Yangon] said she was told. ...

The junta said it was grateful to the international community for its assistance but the best way to help was to send in material rather than personnel.

Relief workers have reached 220,000 cyclone victims, only a fraction of the number of people affected, the Red Cross said.

"Believe me, the government will not allow outsiders to go into the devastated area," said Yangon food shop owner Joseph Kyaw. "The government only cares about its own stability. They don't care about the plight of the people."

Indeed. F***ing inhuman bastards. May they rot in hell. (And, more immediately, may their "stability" be undermined by their own obsession with it.)

Estimate: cyclone could kill 500,000

By Brendan Loy

Will Cyclone Nargis, the catastrophic storm that ravaged Burma/Myanmar, ultimately be worse than the 2004 tsunami? Christ almighty.

That fearful prediction comes from the Sun, so you may want to take it with a grain of salt. But it's based on an estimate of what could happen "through disease and hunger if the nation's hardline army rulers continue to block aid for the devastated lowlands of the Irrawaddy Delta."

And blocking aid is exactly what these evil rulers are doing. They've seized all food supplies and are preventing it from being distributed to the victims, forcing the U.N. to suspend its relief efforts. Meanwhile, according to Nyo Ohn Myint, leader of an exiled opposition party:

"The bodies need to be collected and burnt as soon as possible or disease will claim many more lives. But the government has organised nothing and its 400,000 soldiers are doing nothing while undistributed aid piles up.

"They are hoping bodies will be washed out to sea so the final count is smaller – but it could kill half a million people within a matter of weeks. The world must know what is going on."

There is a special circle of Hell for these junta bastards.

Incidentally, a death toll of 500,000 would place Nargis on the Top 5 list of deadliest natural disasters in history (excluding famines and diseases). Although, the term "natural disaster" may not be entirely appropriate, as Myint pointed out: "Much of this will be a man-made disaster, caused by the military regime."

P.S. The deadliest tropical cyclone in world history was the 1970 Bhola cyclone in India and Bangladesh, which killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people.

Cyclone death toll could reach 100,000

By Brendan Loy

The worst natural disaster since the 2004 tsunami keeps getting worse:

Stephen Hadley, the White House national security adviser, said 100,000 people had probably been killed, with a large number of others unaccounted for, in a “humanitarian disaster of enormous proportions”. He said that Burma’s junta would “compound the disaster” by denying access to relief groups.

“This is not about politics, this is about helping people in need. And the junta should please open its doors and let the international community provide humanitarian assistance to the people in Burma because they need it desperately.”

Dr. Jeff Masters has more, noting that Cyclone Nargis "took the worst possible track, passing directly over the densely populated and low lying Irrawaddy River delta," and also "came at the worst time possible, during the winter bora rice crop harvest." So the storm's toll will be compounded by further food shortages at a time when the price of rice is already sky-high.

Masters also writes:

In one city alone--Bogalay, about 50 miles southwest of the capital of Yangon--10,000 people are thought to have died. Bogalay is a decrepit city of 100,000 that lies at the head of a estuary that leads to the sea. No doubt this narrow waterway served to funnel a storm surge over ten feet high into the city.

Yikes.

"Disaster of horrific proportions" in Myanmar

By Brendan Loy

Cyclone Nargis has produced a major humanitarian catastrophe in Myanmar (a.k.a. Burma), with perhaps 13,000 dead and the nation's capital -- which suffered a direct hit from the storm -- plunged into a "primitive existence."

Dr. Jeff Masters has a detailed post on the cyclone and its impact.

It's a Kerry flip-flop! Emanuel backtracks on hurricanes and global warming

By Brendan Loy

Kerry Emanuel, the influential M.I.T. climate scientist who has been at the forefront of making the argument that global warming will lead to more intense hurricanes, has released a new study that backtracks on his earlier findings, revealing more uncertainty on the question of whether such a link exists. (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

I've pointed out repeatedly that the question of what global warming would do vis a vis hurricanes is an entirely separate issue -- about which there is much less consensus and much more uncertainty, even among the most ardent AGW true believers -- from the question of whether global warming is happening (and the subsidiary question of whether, and to what extent, human activity is causing or contributing to it). This new Emanuel study basically reinforces that point. Entirely aside from the broader global warming debate, everyone ought to recognize that we really just don't know for sure yet what the impact on hurricanes will be, if any. (cc: Al Gore)

Personally, notwithstanding my entirely tongue-in-cheek headline, I think the most important point is the one made by Eric Berger, the Houston Chronicle's "SciGuy":

This should put to rest a lot of the nonsense about a global warming conspiracy among scientists. Emanuel, faced with new evidence, has moderated his viewpoint. That's what responsible scientists do, and most are responsible. The amount of scientist-bashing when it comes to global warming is generally quite deplorable.

Indeed. (I would have loved to see Glenn Reynolds quote that point, instead of rehashing the silly, trivial and misleading point about a "relative paucity of hurricanes over the last couple of years." See my Pajamas Media article for a full rebuttal to that.) [UPDATE: Glenn has updated his post, adding a link to this post and quoting the very passage I wished he had quoted initially. Thanks, Glenn.]

Berger also points out that "if you're a skeptic, and you welcome these results, please remember that [the climate models used in this new study] are the same climate models you bash when they show global temperatures steadily rising during the next century."

Meanwhile, Becky tells me she saw the National Hurricane Center's new director, Bill Read, talking on The Weather Channel last week about how we need to stop obsessing over the global warming issue when talking about hurricanes, and focus more on promoting greater preparedness. I agree 100% with that, and I would add that we also need to focus on figuring out what to do about runaway coastal development. As I wrote in my PJM article:

[T]he whole argument over global warming really misses the point, in a certain sense. The biggest downside of the politicization of weather is that it has largely blinded us to more pressing issues related to disaster preparedness.

Regardless of whether global warming is real and manmade — and regardless of whether warming ocean temperatures will lead to more active hurricane seasons, which is actually a separate question — it is an undeniable reality that hurricanes are going to become more damaging and deadly in the coming decades because of increased coastal development. It is also undeniable that certain cities (e.g., Houston/Galveston, Tampa, Miami, New York, and, still, New Orleans) are incredibly vulnerable to absolute devastation from a major hurricane, and more steps need to be taken to protect them, regardless of global warming. Disaster preparedness should not be a political issue, but because of intellectual dishonesty and laziness on both extremes in this feud, it has become one.

Whatever our positions on global warming and related political issues, we should all be happy that the 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons have turned out to be relatively less devastating than some other recent seasons — and we should use that relative inactivity not as an excuse to grow complacent, but as an opportunity to get ready for the next big storm. Because there will be another big storm. That’s one inconvenient truth that nobody can deny.

P.S. Commenter Jason Ward points to a statement in early 2006 by Emanuel and other top scientists echoing the above sentiment (or, I guess more accurately, I'm echoing their sentiment):

As the Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, the possible influence of climate change on hurricane activity is receiving renewed attention. While the debate on this issue is of considerable scientific and societal interest and concern, it should in no event detract from the main hurricane problem facing the United States: the ever-growing concentration of population and wealth in vulnerable coastal regions. These demographic trends are setting us up for rapidly increasing human and economic losses from hurricane disasters, especially in this era of heightened activity. Scores of scientists and engineers had warned of the threat to New Orleans long before climate change was seriously considered, and a Katrina-like storm or worse was (and is) inevitable even in a stable climate.

Rapidly escalating hurricane damage in recent decades owes much to government policies that serve to subsidize risk. State regulation of insurance is captive to political pressures that hold down premiums in risky coastal areas at the expense of higher premiums in less risky places. Federal flood insurance programs likewise undercharge property owners in vulnerable areas. Federal disaster policies, while providing obvious humanitarian benefits, also serve to promote risky behavior in the long run.

We are optimistic that continued research will eventually resolve much of the current controversy over the effect of climate change on hurricanes. But the more urgent problem of our lemming-like march to the sea requires immediate and sustained attention. We call upon leaders of government and industry to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of building practices, and insurance, land use, and disaster relief policies that currently serve to promote an ever-increasing vulnerability to hurricanes.

Amen. (Emphasis mine.)

P.S. Since I now have a mini-Instalanche headed my way, which inevitably means a global warming flame-war is imminent, I wanted to quote one other key passage from my PJM article. I've added a few bracketed points for the sake of clarity.

“All scientists agree,” Berger writes, “that a single hurricane season cannot make or break an argument for global warming having a measurable impact of hurricanes.” Alas, this message is often lost on non-scientists in the pro- and anti- crowds.

Just as it was both unsound and unwise for some global-warming advocates to hold up the 2005 hurricane season as proof of their position, it would be equally unsound and unwise for global-warming skeptics to hold up 2006 and 2007 as somehow disproving the existence of global warming [or of a link between global warming and hurricanes]. Such arguments are unsound because they confuse climate, which is comprised of long-term trends, with weather, which chronicles individual events. They are also unwise strategically because they are so vulnerable to attack when things — predictably — turn out differently in future years.

The heavy reliance on 2005 in certain quarters, which gave some lay observers the false impression that all hurricane seasons would henceforth be similar to the freakish ‘05 season, left global-warming advocates open to cynicism, criticism and rebuttal when 2006 and 2007 failed to live up to expectations. Similarly, a global-warming skeptic who claims today that 2007 disproves global warming [and/or an AGW link to hurricanes] is leaving himself open to the argument, if 2008 is an active season, that ‘08 proves global warming is real [and linked to hurricanes] after all. The more honest (and strategically sound) course, for both sides, is to discuss global warming on its actual merits, and not obsess over minor year-to-year variations that tell us very little, if anything, about long-term trends.

Something for everyone, on both sides, to keep in mind as the 2008 hurricane season approaches.

A little piece of history

By Brendan Loy

Digging through some old computer files, looking for job-related stuff, I stumbled upon a text file titled "message to drudge - katrina," dated Friday, August 26, 2005, at 10:23 PM. That would be about 8 1/2 hours after my oft-quoted "New Orleans in peril" post (i.e., the one I read aloud in Spike Lee's movie), less than a half-hour after my post titled "Models 'cluster' on near-worst-case track" -- which accompanied the final westward shift of the National Hurricane Center's official forecast track, which ended up being almost exactly accurate even though it was ~60 hours out -- and an hour before my frequently referenced "get the hell out" post.

Even as all that was going on, the Drudge Report was still focused on the possibility of another Florida landfall (recall that the Sunshine State had been hit by six hurricanes in the preceding 14 months or so, including Katrina's first landfall on the peninsula), and much of the media was following suit, focusing on the Florida panhandle instead of the looming New Orleans doomsday scenario, despite the clear change in the forecast over the preceding 12 hours. Exasperated, I wrote to Drudge using his anonymous tips form thingy. I don't think I've ever published my message before, and I thought it might be of some mild interest, so I've posted it after the jump.

Proto-Pablo fizzles

By Brendan Loy

So much for the 2007 hurricane season ending with -- or the 2008 season beginning with -- an unexpected subtropical storm. Invest 95L, the storm that could have become either Pablo or Arthur, has fizzled.

Another Zeta?

By Brendan Loy

Hurricane season has been "officially" over for almost a month now, but Alan Sullivan notices a borderline tropical-ish storm out in the eastern Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center has apparently chosen not to name. He agrees with the decision to keep the storm nameless. He also compares it with Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on my wedding day two years ago -- and which, I gather, Sullivan believes was an example of NHC count-padding. Whatever. If nothing else, Zeta made for an interesting footnote to my own personal history. (And hey, maybe the NHC will belatedly name this one, too, and the baby will be born on the same day. Wouldn't that be something?)

P.S. FWIW, Pablo would be the name. (Of the storm, not the baby.)

UPDATE: Right on cue...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

I said before that "Pablo would be the name," but actually, that depends on when the storm is named. If it doesn't get a name until after midnight on January 1, it would be Arthur -- the first storm of the 2008 season.

UPDATE 2: Dr. Jeff Masters has more on proto-Pablo/Arthur, as does the Miami Herald.

Surprise!

By Brendan Loy

Olga strengthens -- over land. Didn't see that one coming.

Olga makes landfall

By Brendan Loy

Subtropical Storm Olga is making landfall in the Dominican Republic, and will soon fall apart over the mountains there. Alan Sullivan is unimpressed: "This indignity is a fitting close to the 2007 season. Olga did not properly earn a name." Regardless, major flash flooding is possible.

Heeeeere's Olga!

By Brendan Loy

Subtropical Storm Olga has formed.

UPDATE: Alan Sullivan writes: "At this time the radar display shows violent, twisting thunderstorms, but no distinct core. Olga's inner circulation seems to consist of multiple, orbiting swirls. Central pressure is dropping, however, and if a more distinct core forms, modest intensification could occur. Upper winds remain adverse for the development of a full-blown hurricane."

The first full advisory is here. Discussion here.

Tropical Storm Olga?

By Brendan Loy

In what would be a surprise ending to the just-about-average 2007 hurricane season -- which officially "ended" on November 30, not that Mother Nature cares about such artificial, human-imposed deadlines -- a tropical or subtropical storm may form in the Atlantic several hundred miles east of Puerto Rico over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center has issued two Special Tropical Disturbance Statements on the system today, and Glenn Reynolds actually tipped me off via e-mail to an AP article about it. (That's a first. Heh.)

Alan Sullivan, usually a skeptic when it comes to weakling storms, breathes nary a word about "count-padding" and states that "there is more and more model consensus that a tropical storm may form" out of what is currently being called Invest 94. By contrast, Dr. Jeff Masters is more skeptical, concluding, "I don't expect 94L will ever develop into a tropical storm." We shall see. If 94L does develop into a named storm, its name would be Olga.

Meanwhile, Dr. William Gray has issued his first long-range forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, in which he calls for a moderately above-average season. Of course, as I've stated repeatedly -- most recently in an Instalanched November 26 post -- I think these forecasts do more harm than good because of their inaccuracy, the public misconceptions they inevitably create, and the charged atmosphere created by the politicization of weather that has taken hold in recent years. As Dr. Masters writes:

[Public scorn of these forecasts is] the inevitable result of a culture where seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are not very good, are excessively hyped by both the forecasters and the media. The forecasters have set them selves up for such shrill condemnations by putting out these very public forecasts, complete with press conferences, but not properly emphasizing the uncertainties and low skill of their forecasts.

To their credit, Dr. Gray & co. have tried to emphasize that point this year, stating in the abstract of their report: "These real-time operational early December forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology during the period 1992-2007." In other words, they have no track record of success in meaningfully predicting anything. Dr. Masters writes, "By clearly stating their lack of forecast skill, the CSU team's December 2007 forecast is a great step towards improving this situation. The public needs to know that these December forecasts as yet have no skill, and are unworthy of the media attention they get." Indeed. Take note, MSM. (Eric Berger has a good post on this issue, too.)

College football's perfect storm

By Brendan Loy

An odd analogy occurred to me yesterday, one that links two of my great passions: hurricanes and college football. The analogy is this: in a way, the 2007 college-football season reminds me of the 2005 hurricane season. Both featured a series of absolutely extraordinary events, one after another after another -- each of which seemed so improbable as to be almost impossible, and yet no matter how unlikely, they just kept happening. Each event would have been incredible by itself; in combination with all the others, they got to the point of defying all adjectival description. All you could really do is sit back and say, "Wow." At some point, you just had to concede that this season simply didn't follow the rules.

Seven named storms in June and July. A Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane in July. Four Cat. 5s during the course of the season, including three of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded -- all in the space of seven weeks. A monster hurricane threatening Houston three weeks after another monster hurricane destroyed New Orleans. A two-mile-wide pinhole eye rotating around the edge of a 40-mile-wide outer eye. A tropical storm making landfall in Spain. A cold-water hurricane that seemed to defy the laws of thermodynamics. A grand total of 28 storms, shattering the old record and pushing us into the Greek alphabet by mid-October. Two Greek-alphabet hurricanes, one of them a major hurricane. The season's final storm forming on December 30 and lasting until January 6.

Appalachian State winning at Michigan. Syracuse, a 37-point underdog, winning at Louisville. Stanford, a 41-point underdog, winning at USC. Navy beating Notre Dame. Thirteen Top 5 teams losing to unranked teams. The #1 and #2 teams both losing in the same weekend three separate times -- including both of the last two weekends of the regular season. Ohio State twice rising from #3 to #1 as a result of those double-upset weekends. LSU twice losing while ranked #1, yet still finishing the regular season ranked #2. West Virginia choking away a national-title shot at home, at night, against 4-7 Pitt, a 28-point underdog. UConn a co-champion in the Big East. Buffalo a co-champion in the MAC East. Kansas and Missouri, national-championship contenders. South Florida, briefly ranked #2 in the land. Notre Dame going 3-9. Illinois going to the Rose Bowl. Hawaii going to the BCS. Cal going from the nation's unofficial #1 team for a few hours to 6-6 seven weeks later. Oregon, similarly, going from 8-1 and #2 in the nation to 8-4 and unranked. Nebraska giving up 76 points to Kansas one week, dropping 73 on Kansas State the following week, and losing 65-51 in its finale. North Texas 49, Navy 45... at halftime. The Play II. A hyperactive coaching carousel, complete with SEC coach-swapping (kinky!). Les Miles going, in the space of 12 hours, from allegedly leaving LSU for Michigan to unexpectedly leading LSU to the BCS title game. An Ohio State team that many suspected of being fraudulent even when it was undefeated, losing at home to an unranked team in Week 11, falling to #7, rebounding to #5 with a win in Week 12, then rising all the way back to #1 by the end of Week 14 without playing a game. LSU climbing from #7 in the second-to-last BCS standings to #2 in the final standings -- and going to the championship game as a two-loss team. A sophomore, playing for a three-loss team, about to win the Heisman. And did I mention USC lost to Stanford? At the Coliseum? And that they'd be in the BCS title game if they'd won?

What a year. Truly unbelievable.

P.S. Also yesterday, I thought of an argument for why, even after USC-Stanford, Louisville-Syracuse, and WVU-Pitt, Appalachian State over Michigan is still the biggest upset of the year, and for that matter, of all time.

Hurricane forecasters say seasonal errors are hurting their credibility

By Brendan Loy

The Miami Herald has an excellent article about the third consecutive high-profile failure of seasonal hurricane forecasts to closely approximate reality. (The forecasted storm totals were way too low in 2005, way too high in 2006, and substantially too high in 2007.) The article focuses, quite rightly IMHO, on the fear that these forecasting failures are lowering the public's confidence in the much more important -- and much more accurate -- operational forecasts regarding individual storms that the National Hurricane Center does such an excellent job with. I talked about this issue in my season wrap-up for Pajamas Media, and the Herald keys on it as well. Excerpt:

[G]iven the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good? [Yes. -ed.]

''The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center. ...

Mayfield and virtually all hurricane researchers and forecasters, some of whom were skeptical years ago, now support the issuing of full-season predictions. [Why?? -ed.]

But many openly share concerns about the current system, focusing in particular on NOAA's tendency to subtly link the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County to the seasonal forecasts produced by [Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal forecaster]'s team, which is based in Maryland.

In fact, it is important to emphasize the distinction between the six-month seasonal forecasts and the real-time forecasts of an actual hurricane or other tropical system, which are called "operational forecasts.'' ...

Many [operational forecasters] worry ... that substantial errors in those full-season predictions can undermine faith in their generally accurate forecasts of actual storms.

They note that NOAA, parent agency of the hurricane center and Bell's team, often releases Bell's predictions during pre-season news conferences conducted at the hurricane center.

During other years, the hurricane center's director is ordered to participate in the pre-season news conference, wherever it might be held.

''NOAA has been using the good name of the National Hurricane Center, at least to some extent, to help promote the seasonal product and that's not the mission of operational hurricane forecasters,'' Mayfield said.

''In some areas, hurricane forecasters are losing credibility even though they are not the lead on this -- and that's always a concern,'' he said. "We don't want the credit for the seasonal forecasts.''

Bell said the differences between the two groups should be clear to the public by now. He said South Floridians and other residents of the hurricane zone should never disregard real-time forecasts, especially based on a misconception about the full-season predictions.

''There's no basis for those kinds of comments,'' Bell said, "especially if they're made by people who don't know what they're talking about.''

There might be "no basis" for comments linking operational forecasts and seasonal forecasts -- no valid basis, anyway -- but NOAA is setting itself for the inevitability that such comments will be made, with or without a "basis," when it releases its seasonal forecast with such a media splash and involves the NHC in that splash. So forgive me if I have little sympathy for the hue and cry that people "who don't know what they're talking about" are to blame for this. Ignorant people will always mouth off about things they don't understand, all the moreso when it suits a political agenda. NOAA is squarely to blame for giving them an easy opportunity to do so.

Philip Klotzbach, who issues the Colorado State forecast along with William Gray, "said long-range predictions satisfy the public's 'inherent curiosity'," according to the Herald. Well, he's a scientist, so he can do stuff simply for curiosity's sake if he wants to. But NOAA officials aren't just scientists, they're also policymakers, and they need to base their actions on sound policy judgments -- not just a desire to satisfy idle curiosity. It seems to me that these seasonal forecasts are indeed doing more harm than good, and NOAA should either stop issuing its own forecast or at least vastly scale back the media profile that it chooses to give that forecast. Don't call a press conference, don't do interviews, just quietly release the thing on the Internet (loaded with caveats) and satisfy the weather nerds' "curiosity" that way, without unintentionally (but foreseeably!) misinforming the public at large. And certainly, if you must make a media splash, don't involve the NHC operational forecasters in it, for heaven's sake.

It would also be a good idea to issue a press release, whenever anybody releases a seasonal forecast, reminding the media how generally pointless and useless these things are, that they're really just a curiosity, and that we ought to focus on what matters: preparing for big landfalling storms (which can happen in active and "inactive" seasons alike) and forecasting them accurately when they actually form.

Anyway, read the whole thing. And if anyone is tempted to turn this thread into a global-warming debate, please at least read my PJM piece first, if you haven't already. I address a lot of the obvious arguments there (like the old stand-by, "OMG If They Can't Even Forecast A Hurricane Season, Then How Can They Forecast The Climate In 100 Years?? Al Gore Suxxx!!") and I'd rather not repeat myself.

P.S. I will, however, repeat what meteorology Ph.D. student Charles Fenwick wrote back in August, because he made the point very well:

I don’t take too much interest in [seasonal forecasts] personally and don’t like how they are being pushed to the general public. They are a experimental works in progress and should be treated as such. I am most displeased with NOAA’s trumpeting of their forecasts. It gives the public the sense that these are operational forecasts that are on par with the other forecasts of the National Weather Service and that is definitely not the case. [One blog commenter, responding to a dire track forecast for an individual storm, asked], “Where are all the hurricanes the NHC had forecast for the last 2 years? just curious as to why we should panic over predictions that have little or no accuracy?” This shows the confusion that the hurricane season forecasts cause because the National Hurricane Center is not the agency that puts out the seasonal forecast and, as I just said, the seasonal forecasts do not have the same accuracy as the operational forecasts put out by the NHC. … [The seasonal] forecasts are most useful for people who have a stake in the macro-scale, namely insurance companies. They are of little value to individuals.

Indeed.

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

Cyclone's toll likely to reach five figures

By Brendan Loy

The picture gets bleaker and bleaker in Bangladesh, where aid agencies are now estimating a final death toll from Cyclone Sidr between 10,000 and 15,000.

Sidr death toll over 2,000

By Brendan Loy

The death toll in Bangladesh from Cyclone Sidr is now over 2,000, with "several thousand" still missing.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a helpful map of the storm's path and the population density of the surrounding areas. He predicts that "the death toll from Sidr will go much higher, making the storm the deadliest tropical cyclone the world has seen since Hurricane Mitch of 1998." Mitch killed 9,000 people in Hondruas.

Disaster in Bangladesh: death toll at 500 and rising from Cat. 4 Cyclone Sidr

By Brendan Loy

Remember the tropical cyclone that I said was "threaten[ing] massive loss of life" along the Bengal Bay coast? Well, at least 500 people are dead in Bangladesh -- and because these are early reports, and this is the third world, I have no doubt that the number will rise significantly.

Cyclone Sidr didn't weaken at the last minute, as was predicted, and instead made landfall as a strong Category 4 with 150 mph winds, according to Dr. Jeff Masters. But the real problem isn't the wind; it's the water. As Dr. Masters points out, "The big killer in Bangladesh cyclones is the storm surge. The triangular shape of Bengal Bay funnels high surges into the apex of the triangle where Bangladesh sits, and the shallow bottom of the bay allows extraordinarily high storm surges to pile up."

The good news, relatively speaking, is that "the portion of coast likely to receive the highest storm surge levels of 20-25 feet is virtually unpopulated" -- specifically, the coastal regions of the "Sundarbans Forest, the world's largest forest of mangrove trees ... [which] is the least populated coastal area in the country." However, 10-to-20-foot surge still likely affected "areas with a population of at least a million, to the east of the Sundarbans forest, and inland from the forest."

I assume the death toll will ultimately be well into the thousands, which will make the notion that "it could have been worse," while true, seem rather hollow.

Cyclone Sidr threatens massive loss of life in India, Bangladesh

By Brendan Loy

Category 4 Cyclone Sidr is bearing down on the densely populated coasts of Bangladesh and India along the Bay of Bengal. Dr. Jeff Masters has a full update. Sidr is likely to weaken shortly before making landfall, perhaps to a Cat. 1 or 2, but it could still be devastating. As Dr. Masters points out, nine of the thirteen deadliest cyclones in world history -- all with death tolls of 40,000 or above -- occurred in the Bay of Bengal, where the coasts are low-lying, densely populated, and poverty-stricken. (Hat tip: Aaron.)

An underwhelming hurricane season winds down

By Brendan Loy

My (slightly premature) wrap-up of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season has been posted at Pajamas Media.

They asked me to write something about the slow hurricane season in the context of the global-warming debate. I'm not sure if they got exactly what they expected, but I tried to be fair, balanced, and honest in my assessment. I'm not the person to ask for a dissertation about the science of global warming itself, but if I can convince a few people on either side of the debate -- most likely the skeptics in this particular instance, given PJM's core audience -- to drop some of their more specious arguments, I would consider that a success.

Tropical update: three to watch

By Brendan Loy

I probably won't have too much time for hurricane-blogging over the next few days, but there are three tropical disturbances to watch: "90L" in the Gulf, "92L" near the Bahamas, and "91L" off the African coast. Alan Sullivan, in south Florida, is particularly concerned about 92L, which he is already calling "Noel." (90L is the one I previously called "proto-Noel," but that seems less likely with each passing hour. The real threat, if any, is 92L.) Eric Berger has more.

Noel?

By Brendan Loy

The latest post from Dr. Jeff Masters has an alarming title -- "Bahamas tropical disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico" -- but it sounds like he suspects Proto-Noel won't amount to much:

Any storm that forms is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. However, intensification will be slowed by the presence of all the dry air dragged into the Gulf of Mexico by the upper low, and by the transition of the storm from subtropical to tropical. The models project a landfall in Texas or Louisiana on Friday or Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

On the other hand, we've been reminded by Humberto and Lorenzo -- in case we'd forgotten from 2005 -- that tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico will sometimes take full advantage of even the tiniest window of opportunity to intensify. And Friday/Saturday is a long way off. So Proto-Noel (which is just a mass of thunderstorms with a weak surface rotation at this point, not even a Tropical or Subtropical Depression yet) certainly bears watching. Jeff Gammons has more on it.

Meanwhile, Brian Neudorff is blogging about La Niña. The arrival of La Niña (which, as I'm sure Chris Farley would agree, is Spanish for "the Niña") could herald a busy hurricane season next year. I know, I know, you've heard that one before -- but even storm-count skeptic Alan Sullivan writes: "If La Nina persists through 2008, next year could be a bad one for hurricanes."

Then again, this year may retroactively turn out to have had one more hurricane than we currently think. Max Mayfield says Tropical Storm Karen may be reclassified as a hurricane when the NHC takes a fresh look at the data after the season. Speaking of Karen, Bob King celebrates her demise, but tries not to get too cocky about it:

Two years ago, I was way too quick to gloat over the demise of Tropical Depression 10. But some of 10’s remnants later became Tropical Depression 12, which then grew into Hurricane Katrina, and we all know how that turned out. Hence my ironclad rule: Don’t taunt the hurricanes!

So I’ll just settle for this: Oh ghost of Karen, would you terribly mind not coming back? Pretty please?

Tropical update

By Brendan Loy

Another tropical storm, Melissa, has come and gone this weekend while I've been too busy blogging about college football to pay attention to the tropics. Also since my last update, Lorenzo has made landfall and died over Mexico, and Karen has petered out over the Atlantic. Alan Sullivan explains:

This season is just plain strange: it has brought an exceptional number of duds. Evidently long-range forecasters like Dr. Gray were half-right. Preconditions for a real storm-fest were present, but tropical systems have been snuffed by unusual upper winds that I began to notice in May. Only Dean and Felix escaped, running straight west at very low latitude.

Sullivan also thinks the National Hurricane Center is "getting sensitive to blogosphere charges of count-padding." He notes a line in the discussion from when Karen was designated that he interprets as meaning, effectively, "Hey, guys, we didn’t even want to name this one, so back off."

Another out-of-the-blue Gulf hurricane

By Brendan Loy

Hurricane Lorenzo is about to make landfall along the central Mexican Gulf coast. If you don't remember hearing me mention Lorenzo before on the blog, that's because I haven't: like Humberto before him, Lorenzo blew up very quickly, from a tropical depression as late as 11:00 AM today to a hurricane as of 8:00 PM. Now he's at 80 mph, and some additional slight strengthening is possible before landfall in the next few hours.

Meanwhile, out in the middle of the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Karen, struggling with wind shear and currently no threat to land. That could change eventually, but it's very hard to say at this point. Alan Sullivan writes: "If conditions were right, this would have been a mighty hurricane. As it is, we will see a feeble, sputtering tropical storm headed slowly northwest then west for days to come. The GFS model keeps Karen alive long enough to recover strength off the East Coast, recurve, and pass just off Cape Cod as a sizeable hurricane." That's just one computer model, though, and it's trying to predict something a long way off (like ~10 days), so take it with several buckets full of salt.

Karen and proto-Lorenzo

By Brendan Loy

Tropical Storm Karen, which I first blogged about yesterday, has strengthened to 50 mph and is expected to become a minimal hurricane tomorrow before weakening due to increased shear. Karen appears to be no threat to land. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. It could become T.S. Lorenzo as it meanders westward toward the Mexican coast, but is unlikely to reach hurricane strength. SciGuy has more.

Tropics to heat up this week?

By Brendan Loy

We're two weeks past the climatological peak of hurricane season, but still in the "active" part of the season historically, and it looks like things could get a bit more active this week. Dr. Jeff Masters says "three tropical depressions may form by Wedneday in the Atlantic."

UPDATE: One down, two to go!

MORNING UPDATE: T.D. 12 is now Tropical Storm Karen.

Heeeere's Jerry!

By Brendan Loy

Subtropical Storm Jerry has formed, way out over the Central Atlantic. He is no threat to land.

Once again, Alan Sullivan is unimpressed, declaring Jerry a "marginal designation" and the latest symptom of the National Hurricane Center's "zeal to pin a name on any storm in the Atlantic Basin." In an earlier post, he wrote of Jerry's formation, "Such storms can occur at any season in the North Atlantic. If NHC gets in the habit of designating them, it will be scaring the public with hurricanes in winter."

Of considerably more potential significance are Invest 94L in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 97L east of the Lesser Antilles, and Invest 96L way out in the Cape Verde region. Dr. Jeff Masters and Eric Berger have more on 94L; Sullivan has more on 96L and 97L.

No Jerry for you!!

By Brendan Loy

Tropical Depression Ten is coming ashore near Fort Walton Beach, Florida. Earlier this afternoon, it made the transition from subtropical to tropical, but it did not, and now almost certainly will not, strengthen into Tropical Storm Jerry. So forget "proto-Jerry" -- that will be some other storm, some other time.

Proto-Jerry: what is the deal?

By Brendan Loy

Subtropical Depression Ten has formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It could become "Jerry" as it moves westward toward -- gulp -- New Orleans.  But it's very unlikely to become anything serious.  In Eric Berger's words, "this low-pressure system is running out of time to turn into anything more than a minimal tropical storm as it moves toward New Orleans. It seems unlikely to cause significant damage." However, Berger also opines:

The bottom line is that tropical systems are incredibly unpredictable. Any system in the Gulf is a threat to lots of people because we simply don't know, for sure, where the bad weather will go, nor how bad it will get. It's possible, although unlikely, that this depression could pull an Humberto and strike New Orleans as a Category 1 hurricane tomorrow. Probably not, but we just don't have the knowledge to forecast these things with certainty even a day in advance.

For his part, Alan Sullivan is distinctly unimpressed:

You ever heard of [a subtropical depression] before? In the past these systems were (with some hestitation) given names when and if they got as strong as tropical storms. This one is a joke. ... This is lame, lame, lame. What is happening at NHC? It has become an instrument of alarmism.

The official NHC discussion straightforwardly admits calling this storm a Subtropical Depression "probably strains the definition a bit," given the relative dearth of convection. But they're designating it anyway "because of the potential for additional development right along the coastline." In other words, for fear of Humberto Part Deux.

Anyway, "lame" or not, Tropical Storm Warnings are up from Apalachicola, Florida west to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. But there's no need to "get the hell out" this time, unless perhaps to "get the hell out...to a convenience store and buy yourself an umbrella." Though even that may not really be necessary, according to Dr. Jeff Masters: "with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear [S.T.D. 10] has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat."

There be nothin' brewin' in the tropics

By Brendan Loy

[UPDATE, Friday morning: Arrrgh, I should know better than to say "nothin' brewin' in the tropics" before readin' what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say on the topic, m'lads! Yesterday, Dr. Masters believed that the system near Florida was a threat to the Gulf Coast, but today he says the threat is diminishing. Arrr! Well, that be good news, at least. Shiver me timbers!]

Ahoy, maties, it be a good day for piratin', for Calypso has not seen fit to unleash her fury upon the seas, though it be the climatological peak of hurricane season, arr.

Tropical Storm Ingrid -- the storm that that the skipper of this here blog was so eager so see named "Humberto," so that it could terrorize stripeys and waisters alike with the fearsome name "Hurricane Humberto" -- came to naught, as howlin' wind shear tore her right apart and sent her to Davy Jones' Locker on Monday mornin'.  And naught has followed on Ingrid's heels.  It's slim' pickin's in the latest Tropical Weather Outlook:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARRRRIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BE PRODUCIN' A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO.  YE LANDLUBBERS IN FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTIN' SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  YE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTIN' THE LOW TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR NIGH A HUNDRED LEAGUES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, BUT NEVER FEAR, ME HEARTIES.  UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BE KEEPIN' INGRID CONFINED TO HER WATERY GRAVE.

ELSEWHERE...YE OUGHT NOT TO BE EXPECTIN' ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ARRR.

Walk the plank, Al Gore, you scurvy scum! There be no hurricanes to speak of!

But nay, it still be too early yet to be talkin' about a less active hurricane season than what we was expectin'.  There be a good five or six weeks yet for Calypso to send more storms our way, and we'd best be watchful!  Keep a weather eye on the horizon satellite images, and don't be fooled by the calm! She could unleash another Dean or Felix on us, and then we'll be sorry we rejoiced early, aye!!

Now stop reading this blog and get back to work, you mangy bilge rats!

TV review: K-ville

By Jay Johnson

Since this blog (or at least some incarnation of this blog) largely made its national name during Hurricane Katrina, I thought it might be appropriate to provide my thoughts on the new series on Fox this fall, K-ville.

As you might be able to gather, K-ville is shorthand for Katrinaville, not an affectionate nickname for Knoxville.  The show is set in current day, two years post-Katrina New Orleans.

On the surface, it seems to be your garden-variety cops vs. bad guys drama, focusing primarily on officer Martin Boulet (Anthony Anderson).  Officer Boulet is a resident of the Ninth Ward, where he is the gung-ho leader of the "Let's Rebuild It" movement.  Unfortunately for him, he seems to be the only one interested.

During Katrina, his partner punked out on him in the middle of crisis, and he's been twisted because of that, too.  I'm shocked, really.  A cop, with a lot of stress and problems, in a TV series.  How novel.

His new partner Trevor Cobb (Cole Hauser) is an ex-military man from Cincinnati.  Needless to say, this raises red flags with Boulet.  Talk about adding coals to a fire.  Give a man with trust issues someone new that he has to trust and let's see what happens.

The initial story in the pilot is one that isn't exactly new, either.  Evil corporate types trying to keep the Ninth Ward from actually being built back, so they can profit from the cheap prices on the dirt.

From a cinematographic perspective, the show looks a lot like Blackhawk Down or Syriana, with a gritty, grainy quality that makes it truly seem like a battlefield.  The scenes of NOLA in the show are clearly focused on the destruction from Katrina that remains uncleared.   

There are a number of opportunities to take jabs at FEMA et al., and in that way it ham-handedly makes its political statement.  This, like so much of K-ville, seems very forced and contrived.  I know it's a work of fiction, but it just tries too damn hard to get to where it's going for my taste.

Lots of shoot-em-up scenes, interspersed with post-Katrina wreckage, capped off with the personal trials of Boulet, pretty much takes the whole hour.  It could be an OK cop drama, but I don't know that it's going to hang around long enough to evolve into something really good.

Overall, it's something like a C+ at best. 

Ingrid

By Brendan Loy

Tropical Depression Eight, the storm I wanted to be Humberto, has finally earned the name Ingrid, strengthening to minimal tropical storm status as of 11:00 PM. It lost the "race" by a whopping 33 hours.

Ingrid will probably strengthen slightly in the next day or so, but after that, there's a lot of wind shear in the storm's path, so weakening is likely; indeed, Ingrid may be "completely torn apart" before she can ever amount to much of anything.

Meanwhile Humberto, the storm I wanted to be Ingrid -- because I anticipated it being an "unexciting storm" that I didn't want a "great name" like Humberto to be "wasted on" -- turned out to be anything but "unexciting." On the contrary, it was historic. Cue Forecaster Franklin's 11:00 AM discussion about Humberto's unexpected rapid strengthening:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT [11:00 AM] YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT [5:00 AM] THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

Eric Berger says Franklin's comment is humbling, a reminder that "we understand relatively little about the fundamental physics of hurricanes despite the avalanche of data we collect about them." Alan Sullivan, for his part, has a theory about what happened. And Dr. Jeff Masters says we were lucky: "If Humberto had had another 12-24 hours over water, it could have been a major hurricane that would have hit without enough time to evacuate those at risk."

P.S. Brian Neudorff has a whole post about this issue. In it, he quotes AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi, who seems to think the apparently rapid wind increase is more a result of measurement inaccuracy than anything else, and who concludes, "The true measure of increase in energy was the 15 mb pressure drop from 1001 to 986 in only 12 hours ... This is not that astounding at all in a developing system." Neudorff also quotes former NHC director Max Mayfield, who writes on his blog:

National Hurricane Center forecasters have repeatedly stated that one of their greatest concerns is intensity forecasting. This has been listed as the No. 1 priority to the research community for years. Humberto’s rapid and unexpected strengthening is an example of the need for improved guidance on intensity forecasting. None of the models used as guidance by the NHC indicated such rapid strengthening. ...

One hates to think about the impacts if people had gone to bed expecting a Category 1 and ended up experiencing a Category 3 or higher hurricane. Without improved intensity guidance, one of these days this will happen and the result will be devastating.

P.P.S. In another post, Neudorff notes that Ingrid's formation means 2007 has tied 2006's named-storm total... and we only just passed the climatological peak on the season on Monday.

Hurricane Humberto!!

By Brendan Loy

It's official! Against all odds, Humberto has managed to become a hurricane and, if you will, earn his alliterative stripes. So Texas is about to experience the first U.S. hurricane landfall of the 2007 season -- indeed, the first since Wilma in 2005 -- and it's from a hurricane with a cool-sounding name, to boot.

Here's the live radar view.

Now watch, T.D. Eight will never actually become a hurricane, and my "race for Humberto" post will look utterly foolish.

UPDATE: Humberto made landfall at 3:00 AM EDT as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, all confined to the north side of the eyewall. Here's a radar image of the storm making landfall, and you can clearly see that strong north side where the hurricane-force winds were occurrin