By Brendan Loy
Missouri is #1 in the new AP poll by a margin of 45 first-place votes to 20, but West Virginia is #1 in the new coaches poll by a margin of 37 to 17 (with 6 first-place votes for Ohio State).
Of course, it doesn't matter who's #1 and who's #2. If the Tigers and Mountaineers both win on Saturday, they'll go to the BCS title game, and they'll decide on the field who deserves to be #1. More significant is who comes after #3 Ohio State in the coaches' poll, since those teams would fighting over the #2 spot in the BCS if Missouri and WVU were to both lose on Saturday.
It goes like this: #4 Georgia (1,232 points), #5 (tied) Kansas (1,161 points), #5 (tied) Virginia Tech (1,161 points), #7 LSU (1,134 points), #8 Oklahoma (1,126 points), #9 USC (1,073 points) and #10 Hawaii (958 points). I have to say, I'm surprised Kansas is still ranked that high; I didn't think the Jayhawks would be in the mix anymore, but they are. Texasyank was right: they could pull a Nebraska, a la 2001. (Though I still doubt it would actually happen.)
Anyway, it would be a hell of an argument among the teams currently ranked #4 through #8 if Mizzou and WVU lose:
• Georgia could claim it's playing the best football right now, but others would point out that they didn't even win their division, a la Nebraska in 2001. And if LSU beats Tennessee, how do you keep out the two-loss conference champion in favor of a two-loss divisional runner-up (that, oh by the way, lost 35-14 to the Vols)? The only reason to favor the Bulldogs over the Tigers is because they lost earlier than LSU did. But is that really a good reason? Also, Georgia has one of the worst losses of the group (at home to a .500 team, South Carolina... if anyone remembers September 8 at this point).
• Kansas could point out that everyone else has two losses, while they only have one. But they, too, have the "didn't win their division" problem, plus they started 11-0 against a very weak schedule and then lost against the first real quality opponent they played. The Jayhawks are in prime position to be leapfrogged.
• Outside of the Top 3, Virginia Tech is the highest-ranked team right now that could potentially win its conference. But can the voters possibly keep the Hokies ahead of LSU, if the Tigers win the SEC, when VT lost 48-7 to LSU back in September? I think VT must hope for Tennessee to beat LSU to have any shot.
• LSU has the 48-7 trump card over Virginia Tech, and the SEC trump card ("champion of the toughest conference in America") over everyone else if they beat Tennessee. But they also suffered a late, high-profile loss, which pollsters hate. If LSU wins, will the voters follow the Kreutz Theorem and leapfrog them ahead of all the non-SEC two-loss teams (and Kansas), or will they continue to punish the Tigers for losing late? LSU needs to root for Virginia Tech to win the ACC, because having that 48-7 win at the forefront of everyone's minds is obviously good for their cause. Other LSU talking points: they played the toughest schedule of the group, and both of their losses were in triple-overtime. Rebuttal: yeah, but a lot of their wins were really close, too. Surrebuttal: well of course they were, because they played the toughest schedule of the group! And the SEC is a war!
• Oklahoma is currently ranked last among the teams seriously competing to take advantage if the Top 2 falter, but they have two advantages: they can make one of those top two falter, by beating Missouri; and in so doing, they can score the highest-profile "quality win" of everyone in the group. On the flip side, like Georgia, they lost to a 6-6 team (Colorado).
I don't think anyone else would really be considered. USC just doesn't have enough of a case to pass Oklahoma or Georgia, even if everybody else loses. Hawaii, right or wrong, is not going to be seriously considered for the #2 spot by the pollsters or the computers, under any circumstances. West Virginia and Missouri won't be able to sneak in the back door after a loss; there are too many other available two-loss contenders. And Boston College, at #12, has too high of a hill to climb, even if the Eagles beat VT.
Personally, I think LSU would be the most deserving if WVU and Mizzou lose and all the two-loss teams win, but that opinion is subject to change depending on how the teams in question look on Saturday.
P.S. Man, wouldn't an eight-team playoff be a great way to settle all this? Just saying!
UPDATE: Rich Tellshow thinks USC will finish ahead of Kansas and Oklahoma if they beat UCLA, and that it could come down to the Trojans vs. the Bulldogs for the #2 spot if Missouri, West Virginia, LSU and Virginia Tech all lose:
If [Mizzou and WVU lose] then LSU could be back with win over UT, with an LSU loss VT would have a claim if they win the ACC, and UGA or USC possibly if LSU and VT lose. I think Kansas is done and OU's computer component will keep them out.
UPDATE 2: Jerry Palm thinks USC has no chance. I tend to agree.