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About me


I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

I'm a big-time sports fan, a politics, media & law junkie, an astronomy buff, a weather nerd, an Apple aficionado, a Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter fanatic, and an all-around dork. My blog is best-known for its coverage of Hurricane Katrina, but I blog about anything and everything that interests me.

You can contact me at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com, or donate to my "tip jar" by clicking the link below:

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Pajamas Media BlogRoll Member

College Football

Uga is dead, long live Uga

By Brendan Loy

Uga VI, the mascot of the Georgia Bulldogs since 1999, has died.

Uga2

He will be buried alongside his predecessors, Uga I through V, in a vault inside the football stadium. And he will of course be replaced by Uga VII.

I'm not a Georgia fan, obviously, but Uga (pronounced "uh-guh") is pretty freakin' cool. Not as cool as Traveler, of course, but cool nonetheless. R.I.P., Uga VI.

A house divided

By Brendan Loy

You know those "House Divided" license plates -- they're really popular here in the South -- for families in which the spouses root for rival schools? Well, the governor and first lady of California have something similar going on, except it relates to politics rather than sports, and it's on their house instead of their car:

Ahnoldmariaobamamccain2

Heh.

Of course, while the Schwarzenegger-Shriver split gets front page treatment in the New York Times, the same thing happens every day in the Carville-Matalin household. :)

(As for those license plates, I need a customized USC/Notre Dame version that says "A Man Divided." Heh. Okay, not really, but it'd look cool, anyway...)

More politics-as-sports

By Brendan Loy

Last week, I confessed that, although the rational side of my brain is undecided between Barack Obama and John McCain, the "portion of my brain that views politics as a sport can't help 'rooting' for Obama" because he is "the scrappy mid-major going up against the staid, boring, established program; he's Boise State against Oklahoma ('They said this day would never come: a WAC team in a BCS bowl! Yes, we can!'), he's Appalachian State against Michigan... or, as McCain might prefer to say, he's Hawaii against Georgia."

Now, Ben Smith uses a college-football metaphor, saying that Obama's 50-state, expand-the-map strategy is the political equivalent of the "spread offense."

If so, Obama's definitely going to win Michigan. :)

The latest California couple

By David K.

Gays aren't the only new couples in California. USC and the Coliseum have patched up their differences and worked out a deal to keep the Trojans playing at the Coliseum for another 25 years, about the same time Coach Carroll will be ready to retire.

The Pac-10 knows how to schedule

By Brendan Loy

The ACC and Pac-10 have the least despicable non-conference schedules in college football. And when you consider that the Pac-10 plays a nine-game, true round-robin in conference, their schedules are the most respectable by a mile.

Which conference has the cupcake-iest schedules? The Big Ten, of course. Though the SEC and Big 12 are nipping at its heels.

Charity Bowl '08: represent, USC & ND!

By Brendan Loy

Every Day Should Be Saturday is running a contest that gives all you college sports fans an opportunity to help the victims of the recent spate of disasters -- the Burma cyclone, the China earthquake, the Midwest tornadoes -- while simultaneously showing your team pride. Here's how it works:

1) Make a donation online to the American Red Cross, CARE, or the International Rescue Committee.

2) Email the donation confirmation to kevin@fanblogs.com and state your team affiliation by 8pm EDT on Wednesday, May 14th.

3) Results will be displayed at Every Day Should Be Saturday and Fanblogs throughout the week, with the final results shown by Thursday, May 15th.

4) The winning school will have its colors displayed at EDSBS and logo/mascot shown on every page at Fanblogs.

Things are looking dismal in the current standings for both USC and Notre Dame. Neither school shows up in the Top 10, and in fact, if EDSBS is counting ND as part of the "Big East" for purposes of their conference standings, it appears that zero dollars have been donated by fans of either school. (The Pac-10 and Big East are tied for last place with $0.)

So, pony up, Irish and Trojan fans! We can't let freakin' Michigan -- in first place with $1,000 -- win this thing.

ASU cheerleading team axed over raunchy photo

By Brendan Loy

[Warning: All of the links below are at least marginally SFW, in that they contain no actual nudity. However, some contain scantily clad women, suggestive material, etc., so depending on your situation and location, you may want to steer clear.]

The Arizona State cheerleading squad survived the uniformed ex-cheerleader in a porn movie scandal, but apparently the specter of six current cheerleaders in their underwear, baring their not-quite-naked bodies on the Internets for all to see, was too much for the university to handle:

[T]he cheerleading squad that performed at Arizona State football and basketball games has been eliminated. Arizona State will instead have "spirit squads" that will be led by the band director.

Why the change? It's not entirely clear, but the Fox TV affiliate in Phoenix suggests that it's because TheDirty.com posted photos of Arizona State cheerleaders in their underwear.

More on this story -- including the photo -- after the jump.

Continue reading "ASU cheerleading team axed over raunchy photo" »

Because 32 bowls just aren't enough

By Brendan Loy

I mentioned yesterday that college football's powers-that-be have once again decided, in their infinite wisdom, that the BCS is just fine & dandy, and playoffs r teh suxx0rs. But I missed this detail: the NCAA has certified two new bowl games, bringing the total to 34.  Because, as AOL Fanhouse says, "that's what the nation really wanted."

This means a total of 68 teams will be goin' bowling. Last year, 71 teams finished with records of 6-6 or better. We're seriously getting into the territory where, in a given season, there might not be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill out all the slots. I expect we'll soon see a rule change allowing in teams with 5-7 records if there aren't enough .500-or-better teams available. (Remember, 6-6 teams have only been allowed in for the last two years, and that change coincided with the expansion from 28 to 32 bowls.)

In any event, 34 bowls means that more than 57 percent of all Division I-A teams will be playing in the postseason. Remember when a bowl bid was actually a meaningful reward for a good year?

Anyway, the new kids on the block are the Congressional Bowl in Washington, D.C., and the St. Petersburg Bowl in St. Petersburg, Florida. Mercifully, a 35th bowl -- the Rocky Mountain Bowl in Salt Lake City, which would have pitted the fifth-place Mountain West team against the fourth-place WAC team -- was rejected.

The St. Petersburg Bowl is still in need of a corporate sponsorship, which gives me an idea. If every college football fan who supports a playoff, and hates the endless proliferation of meaningless bowls between 6-6 teams, were to donate, say, $5, couldn't we make these folks a sponsorship offer they couldn't refuse -- and force them to name their bowl something like the "Utterly Meaningless St. Petersburg Bowl" or the "St. Petersburg Bowl Brought To You By Shameless Greed" or the "Let's Have A Freakin' Playoff Already St. Petersburg Bowl" or the "F***-the-BCS St. Petersburg Bowl"? Cuz that'd be sweet.

Meanwhile, another AOL Fanhouse blogger wonders how on earth USC lost two games (and played poorly in a bunch of other games) each of the last two seasons, given that seven former Trojans were drafted during the first two rounds of the NFL Draft last weekend -- which continues a trend of Trojan dominance on Draft Day. It's a fair question.

Everybody loves the BCS

By Brendan Loy

Well, everybody who matters, anyway.

So which team are you going to root for now, Brendan??

By David K.

The Connecticut legislature reached a compromise with UConn that will allow the university's football team to schedule a six-year series against Notre Dame, even though none of the games will be played in Connecticut. The Irish balked at playing at the Huskies' 40,000-seat home stadium, Rentschler Field in East Hartford, insisting instead that UConn's "home" games played in larger stadiums elsewhere, most likely in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and/or New York. However, Connecticut lawmakers were unimpressed with the idea of UConn outsourcing its home games to other states. In the words of State Rep. Michael Christ, D-East Hartford, who proposed an earlier bill that would have required UConn to play all its home games at Rentschler, "Many of us felt we already had a beautiful facility in Connecticut and it was built for UConn."

The newly announced deal requires UConn to play six home games at Rentschler Field each year, "as long as the NCAA rules permit a 12-game season and permits a team to use one Football Championship Subdivision win per season as a bowl-eligible win." It also reduces the length of the series between UConn and Notre Dame from ten years to six. "I believe we have crafted a reasonable solution," said Christ, who added that he hopes UConn can persuade the Irish to play at Rentschler Field in the future. (Ha! Fat chance.)

The series will start in the 2011 season and go through 2017.  The three home games for the Irish will, of course, be played at Notre Dame Stadium.  The deal still needs to be approved by Notre Dame and venue officials.  Connecticut and Notre Dame already have a separate deal to play next season in South Bend.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN:  Rep. Christ wrote a scathing op-ed about this topic last week in the Hartford Courant. My dad suggested the headline, "Christ to Notre Dame: Screw you." Heh.

Anyway, here's an excerpt:

Loyal Husky fans flock with family and friends to Rentschler for every home game, rain or shine, in support of their beloved team. There are hundreds of stadium workers who depend on a game day payday from parking cars, working concessions and post-game clean-up. Many local school bands and clubs as well as charities also use games to bolster fundraising. Should all those benefits move to Massachusetts? I say no!

If Rentschler Field is too confining for the Leprechaun army the Fighting Irish deploy each week, how come the similar capacity stadium of the Boston College Eagles (formerly of the Big East) is not too small? That series alternates between South Bend and Chestnut Hill, Mass. ...

There is no question Notre Dame will remain the "Wal-Mart" of college football as long as it is able to keep its national television network deal. However, UConn officials can come out of this looking like heroes both here in Connecticut and nationally by saying "no thanks." They could brag that no one, not even the legendary Notre Dame, can tell Connecticut where to play its home games. Even if the Fighting Leprechauns, after a few more years of two-win seasons, do eventually find their television revenue dried up and are forced to finally join a conference, it is very possible that the Irish will abandon their pseudo Big East affiliation and join the Big 10 anyway.

Ahem. It was a three-win season, thank you very much.

Incidentally, to answer the question posed by the title, I will, of course, root for Notre Dame, my alma mater. But as I said in comments, "if I had to pick one game (other than USC) for ND to lose, it would be the UConn game. Imagine what a huge win that would be for the Huskies program."

That said: Gooooo Irish! Beeeeeat Huskies! :)

The Shirt

By Brendan Loy

The Shirt 2008 is out. It was unveiled yesterday. (Hat tip: Lisa.) The money quote is "NOTRE DAME WILL RISE AGAIN," which seems appropriate.

Domersphere reactions? Her Loyal Sons hates it. Rakes of Mallow likes it, although he wishes it was green. Blue-Gray Sky thinks it's "pretty good." Of course, it features the famous quote about "the blue, gray October sky" that BGS is named after, so they would like it. ;)

ND, Michigan battle in Frozen Four

By Brendan Loy

The Frozen Four is underway, and Notre Dame leads Michigan 3-2 with 10:44 left in the second period. It was 3-0, but Michigan just scored two rapid-fire goals to get back in it.

Liveblogs here and here. The game is being televised live on ESPN2. Winner gets Boston College in the national championship game Saturday. GO IRISH!!! BEAT SKUNKBEARS!!!

UPDATE: Michigan tied it at 3-3... then Notre Dame just took a 4-3 lead with less than 9 minutes left.

UPDATE 2: Tie game 4-4, with 5:21 left. Ugh.

UPDATE 3: Overtime. And, alas, I have to go to bed. Go Irish.

UPDATE 4: IRISH WIN!!!! (Okay, so I didn't actually go to bed...) WOOOHOOO!!!

UPDATE 5: The Associated Press is mean. Check out their lede:

Michigan has Notre Dame's number on the football field. Not so the ice.

Jeez! Is that really necessary? The Irish hockey team makes it to the national championship game for the first time ever -- upsetting the #1-ranked team in the country, and becoming the first #4 seed ever to advance this far -- and the first sentence of the AP article takes an irrelevant shot at the football team? WTF?! Is Brian Cook working ghost-writing for the AP or something?

Moreover, it's inaccurate. Yes, Michigan beat Notre Dame -- badly -- in 2007 and 2006, but the Irish won easily in 2005 (when Michigan was ranked #3 in the country, the Irish just #20) and in 2004 (when ND was unranked and Michigan was #7). Michigan won in '03; Notre Dame won in '02. That makes them 3-3 in their most recent series. (They didn't play from 1998 to 2001.)

If you want to go back further, the Irish are 12-11-1 against the Skunkbears since the series was renewed in 1978 after a 35-year hiatus. Michigan leads the overall series 20-14-1, but somehow I don't think the Wolverines' 9-2 record between 1884 and 1943 was what the AP reporter had in mind.

In any event, 20-14 is hardly a massive advantage, and 11-12 isn't an advantage at all, nor is 3-3. However you look at it, you simply cannot construct an accurate historical reality in which "Michigan has Notre Dame's number on the football field," unless you're looking only at the last two years, which is rather myopic and hardly a sufficiently representative sample to make such a sweeping statement. Neither team has the other's number; they've been very even in recent years.

Maybe the AP's hockey writers should stick to talking about hockey. How about that.

Anyway, here's a better ESPN article about Notre Dame's amazing run to the national championship game. In hockey.

P.S. Now, if you want to say that USC currently has Notre Dame's number in football, thanks to six straight wins -- five of them blowouts -- that would be accurate. :) Likewise, it would have been accurate to say that the Irish had the Trojans' number back during their 13-year undefeated streak in the '80s and '90s. But no way does either ND or UM have the other's number right now.

All hail Appalachia

By Brendan Loy

Man, oh man, has it been a great year to be an unheralded, small-conference school in western North Carolina, or what?

First Appalachian State beats Michigan in the Big House. Then Gardner-Webb beats Kentucky at Rupp Arena. And now Davidson -- Appy State's conference-mate -- is going to the Elite Eight.

Just call it the Bermuda Carolina Triangle:


"Abandon hope, all ye major-conference foes who enter here!"

Heady days in western Carolina. HOT! HOT! HOT!

UB football on ESPN2 on Election Night

By Brendan Loy

The University at Buffalo football team will play a home game on ESPN2 on Election Night against Miami of Ohio. It'll be Buffalo's first nationally televised game since moving to Division I-A, and the first-ever nationally televised game out of UB Stadium. And according to UB grad Weston (pictured below with yours truly on the night of the Buffalo-Rutgers game last fall), they're calling it the "Blue vs. Red Game," in reference to its Election Night timing. Heh.

Speaking of Buffalo, the Bulls are currently trying to extend their men's basketball season in unlikely fashion. At 3-13 in conference play and 10-19 overall, UB is the lowest seed in the conference, #12, but they're leading aforementioned Miami, the #5-seed, by a score of 51-42 with 11:39 to go. Can Buffalo get four wins in four days to win the MAC Tournament? Um, probably not. But hey, you never know. Crazier things have happened -- like the UB football team winning five games in a season. :) Winner gets #4-seed Ohio tomorrow.

UPDATE: Buffalo loses, 69-68. :(

LSU contacts USC coach Tim Floyd

By Brendan Loy

Not content with pissing all over USC's football championships, now LSU wants to steal our basketball coach. :P

Floyd responded with a non-denial denial. I'm sure Les Miles will be rushing to the microphone any minute to castigate the media for reporting on such rumors when Floyd is busy trying to focus on winning a Pac-10 and NCAA championship. ;)

(Hat tip: Jay.)

A rivalry tradition renewed

By Brendan Loy

Pete Carroll and new UCLA football coach Rick Neuheisel have reportedly reached an agreement that will allow the Bruins and Trojans to renew the old tradition of both wearing their home jerseys when they play each other.

Sweet.

The Daily Bruin and Bruins Nation have more. (Hat tip: Doc and Chris Newbury.)

Notre Dame finally beats USC in football

By Brendan Loy

Well, in football recruiting, anyway. Today was National Signing Day, and the Irish recruiting class is ranked #2 by both Rivals and Scout. USC is #10 and #13, respectively, their lowest rankings since 2002 (and behind UCLA, according to Scout... ugh!).

Yet another top QB commits to 'SC

By Brendan Loy

USC has had an awfully impressive track record on the recruiting trail in recent years, especially in the area of quarterbacks. John David Booty was the top QB recruit of the Class of 2003; Mark Sanchez was the top QB recruit of the Class of 2005; Mitch Mustain was the top QB recruit of the Class of 2006. All three went to USC (after a brief sojourn at Arkansas, in Mustain's case).

Well, the embarrassment of riches continues: the Class of 2009's top quarterback recruit, Matt Barkley, announced yesterday that he will go to USC. (Hat tip: Andrew Leyden.)

Sweet.

Norm Chow returns to southern California

By Jay Johnson

Looks like Norm Chow is headed back to southern California to assume the role of Offensive Coordinator.

For UCLA.

That is all.

Carroll mum on NFL rumors

By Brendan Loy

Pete Carroll isn't talking about the ongoing speculation concerning his possible return to the NFL with either the Atlanta Falcons or the Washington Redskins. But the Associated Press asserts that the Falcons' hiring of Tom Dimitroff as general manager last weekend "likely will end [owner Arthur] Blank's possible interest in Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll. Carroll has said he would have interest in an NFL job only if given the authority in personnel decisions."

Meanwhile, USC linebakers coach Ken Norton will remain at Troy instead of defecting to his alma mater, UCLA, which had tried to woo him across town. "I'm flattered," he said of the Bruins' interest. "They'll always be a team in my heart . I feel real good about Rick Neuheisel and what he's going to do there. ... The timing just wasn't right. I'm really appreciative of what Pete Carroll has done for me over here, and my business is not finished."

UB boosts Gill's salary, extends contract

By Brendan Loy

Buffalo's Turner Gill gets a contract extension: "Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed but Gill's new salary is expected to put him in the top tier of MAC coaches."

Slap thyself, John L. Smith: Hawaii says no

By Brendan Loy

Ladies and gentlemen, I dreamed the impossible dream, but alas, it looks like that dream -- of former Michigan State coach John L. Smith "doing crazy s**t while wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a lei" -- will not happen. It appears Hawaii is going to keep things in-house, hiring defensive coordinator Greg McMackin as June Jones's successor.

Continue reading "Slap thyself, John L. Smith: Hawaii says no" »

You, too, can apply to be Hawaii's coach

By Brendan Loy

Heh: In the wake of June Jones's departure as Hawaii's head football coach, state-employee union rules have forced the university to post the job on the Internets, available for anyone to apply. "By mutual agreement with the Hawai'i Government Employees Association, the position must be advertised for at least five working days." It was posted on Tuesday, so you have until at least Saturday to apply:

Head Football Coach, position number 80110, UHM Athletics, (Manoa), Duties: Under administrative direction, Coach is responsible for planning, administering, and evaluating the overall operation of the intercollegiate football program to include, but not limited to, academic achievement of student-athletes, recruitment of qualified prospects, supervision of assistant coaches and other staff assigned to the program, compliance, program management (eligibility, scheduling, travel, budget, equipment), and student-athlete welfare. The head coach assumes full responsibility for ensuring that team performance is competitive in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) with the goal of achieving post-season competition.

And so on, and so forth. Applicants must submit a cover letter, a resume, three references, and UH Form 64. (God bless bureaucracy.) "Review of applications will begin on Jan-15-2008 and will continue until the position is filled." They've received 30 applications so far -- including, apparently, one from former Michigan State coach John L. Smith.

This is kind of ironic, at least in the Alanis Morrisette sense, considering that Smith's Spartans lost 41-38 at Hawaii in 2004, then spent the better part of 2006 trying to weasel their way out of a contract to play there again in 2007. They finally succeeded -- though not until after Coach Slappy had already been fired -- paying $250,000 for the right to not play Hawaii.

The scheduling cowardice of Smith & co. helped doom Hawaii to an abysmal SOS rating, while allowing Michigan State (under new coach Mark Dantonio) to go 4-0 in its non-conference slate against cupcakes UAB, Bowling Green, Pitt and Notre Dame. (Okay, so those last two might not have been cupcakes when they were scheduled, but still...)

And now, Smith wants to go to Hawaii. For good. He's not shy about it, either, telling a reporter: "With 18 years of collegiate head coaching experience and over 130 wins, I would hope that would qualify me as a candidate to be the next head coach at the University of Hawaii."

"And if they don't hire me, I'll slap myself," he added.

Okay, maybe he didn't actually say that last part. But oh, John L. Smith, how I've missed you.

Hawaii, please, please, make this happen. It'll be good for college football. Check that: great for college football. John L. Smith doing crazy s**t while wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a lei = COMEDY GOLD.

(Hat tip: EDSBS.)

In other coaching news, it seems a Washington booster offered the school $100,000 to fire Ty Willingham.

Final pick 'em standings

By Brendan Loy

Amid all the excitement of the past few days, I never got around to posting the final standings of the 3rd annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest. Of course, the final point totals are already online, but that's without tiebreakers. Full standings, with tiebreakers, are after the jump.

Continue reading "Final pick 'em standings" »

Pete Carroll to the Atlanta Falcons?

By Brendan Loy

It's January, which means it's Pete-Carroll-to-the-NFL rumor season. This time, though, it sounds like there may actually be something to the rumors:

USC coach Pete Carroll is interested in the Atlanta Falcons' head coach opening and is expected to speak with Atlanta owner Arthur Blank via phone Wednesday, sources at the American Football Coaches Convention in Anaheim told ESPN's Joe Schad.

Blank is expected to offer full control of personnel decisions to Carroll and the sources said that is what intrigues Carroll most.

DAMN YOU, BOBBY PETRINO!!!

(Hat tip: BK.)

P.S. Reaction from around the Trojansphere:

Student Body Right: "Let’s face it, at some point the guy will jump back to the NFL, it seems inevitable, but… Atlanta? Maybe the single worst job in the league right now? Seems a little nutty, if you ask me."

AOL Fanhouse: "It's... interesting to speculate why Carroll would leave a gravy job at USC for a massive rebuilding project in Atlanta."

Conquest Chronicles: "I am a little shocked that the Falcons would even entertain going after another college coach, regardless of [the coach's] success, after the whole Petrino mess. I have said before that I think Pete Carroll will end up back in the NFL but I'm not sure this is right fit for him. ... [But] I think this might the time for him to go. This is an itch he really wants to scratch and you will only get so many opportunities to make the move back into the NFL. Don't get me wrong I want to keep him as long as we can but we need to be realistic that sooner or later this will probably happen."

TrojanWire: "Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, Arizona and Houston have all courted the man, but so far no team has been able to woo him back over. ... [But now Atlanta] is supposedly offering what Pete wants most: full control of all personnel decisions for the Falcons. ... Pete has been quoted saying he'll 'never return' to the NFL, but who knows...if the conditions are right, any man has his price -- even Pete."

Scott Wolf: "About two weeks ago, I  spoke to Carroll about the Falcons job and he was not bullish on it or the organization." And later, a quote from the USC sports information department: "There's nothing going on, no reason to even talk about it." Yeah right -- "Nothing going on . . . except an interview with the Atlanta Falcons today," Wolf adds.

Three plays away

By Brendan Loy

If LenDale White gets a first down on that 4th-and-2 against Texas, if John David Booty doesn't throw an interception with 1:10 left against UCLA, and if Stanford's Tavita Pritchard doesn't complete that 4th-and-goal prayer from the 10 (or the 4th-and-20 moments before), USC is celebrating its fifth consecutive national championship right now.

I know: if, if, if. And throw in two more "ifs," because I'm assuming the Trojans would have beaten Ohio State in the title game the last two years, if they'd made it in (though that seems like a pretty reasonable assumption). Still, it's pretty incredible to contemplate how close 'SC has come to a dynasty like no other.

Ah well. Next year. BEAT THE CAVALIERS!!

I for one welcome our new SEC overlords

By Brendan Loy

Well, not really. But with LSU #1 and Georgia #2 in the final AP poll (just as I predicted), it's sort of inescapable. The drumbeat of SEC chest-beating will be unavoidable between now and next September. OMG BEST CONFERENCE EVAR!1!!

By the way, LSU was not a unanimous #1 -- second-ranked Georgia got 3 first-place votes, third-ranked USC got 1, and seventh-ranked Kansas got 1 -- but this wasn't even close to being a split championship. (Again, just as I predicted.) LSU finished with 60 first-place votes and 1,620 points overall. Georgia got 1,515 points; USC, 1,500.

Of course, as David mentioned yesterday, I'm sure LSU will graciously refuse to accept the Associated Press championship trophy. ;)

After the Tigers, Bulldogs and Trojans comes a tight battle for #4, which Missouri eked out with 1,347 points -- one more point than #5 Ohio State (1,346) and five more than #6 West Virginia (1,342). A bit further behind is Kansas, one of just two one-loss teams in the nation (the other being #19 Hawaii), with 1,303 points.

Rounding out the AP Top 15: #8 Oklahoma, #9 Virginia Tech, #10 Texas and Boston College (tied), #12 Tennessee, #13 Florida, #14 BYU and #15 Auburn. For those keeping score at home, that's five SEC teams in the Top 15. Please shoot me now. ... Of course, if you look at their records, you'll note that Tennessee, Florida and Auburn are the only four-loss teams ranked above #18, which is further evidence of the Kreutz Theorem ("when [pollsters] rank SEC teams, they automatically subtract a loss from their record"). Heh.

Michigan, if you're wondering, finished #18, the highest-ranked non-SEC four-loss team. Who can honestly say they saw that coming back in September? Oh, and Appalachian State got 5 votes, effectively tying them for 34th place with South Florida. HOT! HOT! HOT!

Anyway, on a more serious note: congratulations to the LSU Tigers! Whatever we may think of the BCS, the Bayou Bengals deserve credit for surviving this most turbulent of college-football seasons and earning, at last, an undisputed national championship... sort of. :) Well done, guys. Way to geaux.

P.S. This is the first time two teams from the same conference have finished the season ranked #1 and #2 in the AP poll since 1971, when the top two were #1 Nebraska and #2 Oklahoma of the Big Eight. (And it didn't stop there. Fellow conference-mate Colorado was #3!)

UPDATE: In the final USA Today coaches poll, USC edged Geogria for the #2 spot, 1,380 points to 1,370, and Ohio State headily beat Missouri for the #4 spot, 1,287 to 1,241, with West Virginia close behind Mizzou at 1,239, and Kansas at 1,217. Unlike in 2003, there were no dissenters from the contractually obligatory coronation of LSU as the #1 team.

UPDATE 2: As long as we're talking rankings, Stewart Mandel has posted his preseason Top 10 for 2008. Of course, much depends on various juniors' stay-or-go-pro decisions. But provisionally, he has Georgia at #1, Ohio State #2, Oklahoma #3, USC #4 and Missouri #5. LSU, which he says "will be hit harder by graduation than any of the other top teams from 2007," is #9.

Putting the "student" back in "student athlete"?

By JLR

In yesterday's Washington Post, there was a decent article examining the pros and cons of a playoff system for college football.  I've already explained my position, and I've heard numerous arguments from the Brendansphere.  However, with a 2-loss "champion," I need to say it again: the BCS system sucks.  If App State can figure out how to have their students take their final exams even though they have playoffs, why can't Virginia?  (UVA purposely declined their invitation to the Champs Sports Bowl because it would have conflicted with exams).

And now I need to stop and look at what I wrote.  I'm a teacher, for chrissake ... A teacher who sometimes resents ploys arguments like this from athletic departments.  Somefeel the stress is too much ... maybe.

Some of the Appalachian State football players felt that way, crammed into the ballroom some 48 hours before playing the most important game of their season. Afterward, though, they also agreed the stress was worthwhile. Years from now, unlike whichever team wins tonight [OSU. or LSU -ed], the merits of their national championship will not be questioned.

I was a student athlete in high school (though not in college, I'll admit).  Classwork comes first.  If there was a conflict, I went to the teacher and worked something out.  Period.  Almost every teacher I know would be willing to give students other opportunities to make up work (or an exam) if they had a legitimate reason for missing class--and I think playoffs would qualify.  True, it might be tough, but isn't that what being a student athlete is about?

Go Buckeyes! Go Obama! Go McCain!

By Brendan Loy

My two favorite sports, college football and presidential politics, converge tonight. The BCS national-title game is underway (LSU is up 17-10), and the first New Hampshire primary results will be available in less than three hours, as the polls open -- and close -- in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location. I don't know how many people will be flipping between Fox and C-SPAN around midnight, but I know I will be!

UPDATE: LSU was up 34-10, but Ohio State just scored a crucial touchdown to cut the Tigers' lead to 34-17 late in the third quarter.

UPDATE 2: Still 31-17 with 5:43 left, and after two straight interceptions by LSU, it's pretty much over.

Meanwhile, back on the political front, here is some corroboration of what Matt Drudge was reporting earlier today.

UPDATE 3: LSU 38, Ohio State 24, final. (It was 38-17, then tOSU got a garbage-time touchdown with 1:13 left.)

So, um, yeah, nevermind. ;)

The Fox analyst says Ohio State "could very well be back in this game next year." Oh good lord.

Now, over to C-SPAN...

UPDATE 4: WTF?? C-SPAN does not appear to be showing Dixville Notch live!! Why does C-SPAN exist, if not to allow political nerds to watch live coverage of ridiculous, nonsensical, meaningless political traditions?

UPDATE 5: Phew, CNN is live from Dixville Notch!

UPDATE 6: It's midnight, and the New Hampshire primary is underway! Four of the 17 residents of Dixville Notch have already voted absentee, and the other 13 just dropped their ballots into the ballot box. ... And the polls are closed!

UPDATE 7: This is riveting.

UPDATE 8: Duncan Hunter is there. In Dixville Notch. Heh.

And they're about to announce the results!

UPDATE 9: McCain 4, Romney 2, Giuliani 1. No love for Hunter!

UPDATE 10: Obama 7, Edwards 2, Richardson 1. w00t!

Ohio State will win tonight

By Brendan Loy

Back on December 3, the day after the BCS pairings were announced, the always eloquent Sunday Morning Quarterback had an excellent post about LSU and SEC fan hubris in anticipation of the Mythical Championship Game showdown between the Buckeyes and the Tigers. I meant to blog about it earlier, but never got around to it. Now, with the game mere hours away, seems like the perfect time to finally do so. Quoth SMQ:

The worst result of last year's mythical championship game was the growth and perpetuation of this absurd notion of superior "SEC speed," based not on the collective 40 times and shuttle drills of hundreds of players on a couple dozen teams that make up the SEC and Big Ten, but on a handful of plays in a single game that was decidedly outside the season-long patterns of both participants, and not demonstrably decided by "speed" (unless you're willing to suggest Tennessee and Arkansas were done in a week earlier by "speed," too, which was at least as plausible). ...

One would think the false sense of inevitability that followed Ohio State prior to last year's championship (or USC the year before that, or that very, very fast Miami team in 2002, or, I don't know, LSU, Ohio State, West Virginia, USC, Oregon, Michigan, Oklahoma, California, Florida or LSU again prior to stunning upsets over the last three months) would demonstrate the virtues of humility to fans everywhere, and lead them to stop for a second to recognize - last year's anomalous championship beatdown is a great example of this - that anything can happen in one game, on one night, and "anything" will not necessarily reconcile itself with the accumulation of disparate performances that precedes it. It only adds to the accumulation; it doesn't define it. Based on everything we know from the dozen "samples" on both sides leading up to last January, that Florida team couldn't beat that Ohio State team by 27 points again in a whole season of trying. There's a reason the Gators were underdogs, and it's not because they kept the fast guys under wraps when squeaking out wins against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Based on everything we know from both teams' performances this season, Ohio State and LSU should be a close, hard-hitting game between two of the few teams that still operate largely from traditional two-back sets on offense and do not hesitate to run old-fashioned isos, counters and traps into the line. It's an interesting collision of style and persona between loose cannon Les Miles and icy, understated mercenary Jim Tressel, and their emphases on emotion, "poise" (as Miles likes to repeat to his oft-flagged charges) and discipline. But it will be decided by the side that executes and catches the right breaks under the specific set of circumstances that unfold on Jan. 7, at which point, of course, that team will be instantly refashioned into gold-drenched superheroes with inherent abilities far beyond those of mortal men. Naturally: We are the champions! These are the myths we make.

But the athletes, the speed, all of that is a given. LSU and Ohio State have both turned in top ten recrutiting classes each of the last four seasons. They've all got the athletes. They've all got the speed. The differences in raw talent on this level are nil. This championship, like all championships, will be about combining management, strategy and execution in the moment, and probably a bounce or timely flag or two. Not as catchy as "SEC Speed," but anything more precise than wrongheaded, bumper sticker hubris rarely is.

Indeed.

Anyway, you may notice that in the title of this post, I'm going out on a limb, aligning myself with the 27 out of 90 Bowl Pick 'em contestants and 25.3 percent of ESPN readers who believe the Buckeyes will prevail. I am predicting this not because I'm pro-OSU but because I'm anti-CW (conventional wisdom, that is), and I see no particular reason to believe that Ohio State can't win this game. This isn't an SEC-Big Ten Challenge (which the former would certainly win), it's a game between two specific teams from those conferences, and while I won't be particularly surprised if either one wins -- such is the chaotic nature of college football, especially this season -- I think a Buckeye blowout would be the perfect conclusion to the season, in the sense that it would turn conventional wisdom on its head one last time. And the Buckeyes certainly have plenty of motivation, while the homestanding Bayou Bengals could easily fall into the trap of reading their press clippings a bit too much. Also, for the love of God, I don't think I can handle the SEC chest-thumping if the Tigers win. So: Ohio State 27, LSU 10.

Oh, and the talk about a split national championship? Forget about it. This is, as I keep saying, a Mythical Championship Game in the sense that there's no particularly compelling reason to believe that these are actually the two best teams in the country, but at the same time, nobody else stands out as being worthy, either. The problem this year, unlike in all past BCS controversies, isn't that there are too many championship-worthy teams, it's that there are too few. My USC Trojans, for one, really and truly should not be in this discussion at all, and it's frankly an embarrassment that they are. Yes, they'd probably win a playoff, but who cares? We don't have a playoff system, we have a system where you're judged on your body of work, and USC lost to Stanford and beat next to nobody. As for the others -- Georgia, Kansas, West Virginia, Missouri (!) -- they all, like USC, are nice teams, but none of them scream "national champion" and all have glaring flaws. So will the LSU-OSU winner, of course, particularly if it's the two-loss Tigers. But in this strangest of all seasons, sheer inertia should result in the Mythical Championship Game winner being recognized by both polls. If Hawaii had beaten Georgia, it would have been a different story, but of course, that rather emphatically did not happen. So tonight's game is for all the marbles: BCS and AP. That said, the phrase "undisputed champion" would not be proper. There's plenty of cause to dispute the result. It's just that no single alternative stands out, so tonight's winner gets the consensus title by default.

Go Buckeyes.

Seth Carmack wins pick 'em contest

By Brendan Loy

Tulsa leads Bowling Green, 21-0 at the end of the first quarter of the GMAC Bowl, and the Golden Hurricane is threatening to score again. That's bad news for Trisha Neudorff and good news for Seth Carmack, who, as noted earlier, will clinch the 3rd annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest if Tulsa wins tonight.

UPDATE, 10:35 PM: It's 42-7 Tulsa with 11:20 left in the third quarter. I'm going to bed now, but I think we can safely declare it over: Tulsa wins, and Seth Carmack is the 2007 Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest champion!

Carmack is the first winner to clinch the contest prior to the BCS title game. That's partly the result of how heavily favored LSU is -- just three of the current Top 15 contestants picked Ohio State, so most of them have no opportunity to gain any ground on Carmack, who went with the majority and picked LSU -- and partly the result of my blatant editorializing in making the Mythical Championship Game have an equal point value to the other BCS bowls. If the title game was worth 8 points, like last year, Neudorff would still be alive to win. But it's only worth 5, and she trails by 6, so the best she can do is lose by one point.

Anyway, congratulations, Seth!

UPDATE: The final score was 63-7. Pick 'em standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Seth Carmack wins pick 'em contest" »

Carmack can clinch contest tomorrow

By Brendan Loy

Rutgers's 52-30 win over Ball State in the International Bowl means that Seth Carmack will clinch the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest if Tulsa beats Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl tomorrow night.

Trisha Neudorff needs for Bowling Green to win tomorrow, and then for Ohio State to upset LSU in the BCS title game Monday. If Tulsa wins tomorrow, Neudorff will be too far behind Carmack to catch him, even if the Buckeyes win.

After the jump, complete standings plus each contestant's predicted winners of the final two bowls. (The GMAC Bowl is worth 1 point; the BCS title game, 5 points.) Standings are also here.

Continue reading "Carmack can clinch contest tomorrow" »

Fighting Manginos win Orange Bowl

By Brendan Loy

It's Kansas 24, Virginia Tech 14 with 5:51 left in the Orange Bowl. Hokies ball on their own 22.

As I mentioned earlier, if the Jayhawks win, the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest will become a two-person race between Seth Carmack and Trisha Neudorff. If the Hokies rally, Brian Dupuis will clinch the contest.

UPDATE: Awesome touchdown catch by Kyle Harper for VT, and after a 15-play, 78-yard, 2-minute-51-second Hokies drive, it's 24-21 Kansas with three minutes left. Finally, a competitive BCS game!

UPDATE 2: Kansas wins! So, Dupuis is eliminated. Carmack leads the pick 'em contest, and can clinch early if Rutgers and Tulsa win the International and GMAC bowls, respectively. If either Ball State or Bowling Green (or both) win, Neudroff stays alive heading into the BCS title game, needing an Ohio State victory over LSU to move ahead of Dupuis.

Complete standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Fighting Manginos win Orange Bowl" »

Dupuis on verge of another pick 'em win

By Brendan Loy

Brian Dupuis, a.k.a. DUP, who won the first annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest in 2005-06, can clinch the third annual contest tonight if Virginia Tech beats Kansas in the Orange Bowl.

If Kansas wins, Dupuis will be eliminated, and the contest will become a two-person race between Seth C. and Trisha Neudorff. Neudorff would win if Ohio State beats LSU in the title game and either Ball State or Bowling Green (or both) win the International or GMAC bowls, respectively. If LSU wins, or if both Rutgers and Tulsa win, Seth C. would win the contest.

Current standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Dupuis on verge of another pick 'em win" »

Chooooooooooke-lahoma

By David K.

With less than 6 minutes remaining the Mountaineers of West Virginia are dominating the Oklahoma Sooners 48 - 28.  A win would not only be a huge upset (for instance only 17 of the 90 entrants in the bowl pool picked WVU and over 84% of the voters in the ESPN Bowl Mania challange picked the Sooners, with an average confidence of 24.5 out of 32) but the first win of the bowl season for a team playing with an interim coach.  Oklahoma is looking at another loss in the Arizona desert, although not nearly as exciting as last years to Boise State.  And its been a messy game too, 21 penalties so far and 225 penalty yards between the two teams, a dubious Fiesta Bowl record.

Oh and one more thing, the next time someone complains about USC only playing one song I'm going to tell them to watch an Oklahoma game, that stupid Sooner ditty is ridiculous.

UPDATE:

Final score 48-28 WVU, congrats to the Mountaineers.  If West Virginia is smart they'll hire interim coach  Bill Stewart right after the game.  He got this team to play for him when no one else believed in them.

Glad to see the BCS is working

By Jay Johnson

We've had some excellent, very competitive BCS bowls so far.

I mean, this Fiesta Bowl is practically a nailbiter, with West Virginia struggling to hold on to a 20 point lead over Oklahoma.

48-28, WVU with 9 minutes to go in the game.

Sheesh.

Fight on!

By Brendan Loy



Loyette and I are watching the Rose Bowl in the hospital (well, she's asleep, but she's sitting on my lap while I watch it, anyway), and so far, we like what we see: the Trojans lead 21-3 at halftime.

UPDATE: USC 49, Illinois 17, final. w00t!

Meanwhile, Georgia and Hawaii are underway in the Sugar Bowl. Thom Brennaman and Charles Davis -- the same announcing team that called last year's Boise State win in the Fiesta Bowl and this year's Appalachian State upset of Michigan -- are calling the game. I sense an upset!

UPDATE 2: Or not. Georgia 24, Hawaii 3 at halftime.

UPDATE 3: Nope, definitely not. Georgia 41, Hawaii 10, final.

Remember how everyone wanted to see USC vs. Georgia instead of putting them in separate bowls? Tonight pretty well demonstrated why, no? It's not the Rose Bowl's fault that a Trojans-Bulldogs matchup didn't happen, but man, it would have been pretty awesome. The BCS sucks.

Meanwhile...

By Brendan Loy

Although I suddenly find college football considerably less interesting than staring dumbfoundedly into my daughter's eyes, nevertheless a bunch of bowl games are happening today. And things are going well so far for the hometown team, as Tennessee leads Wisconsin 21-7 near the end of the first half.

Later, of course, it'll be USC vs. Illinois in the Rose Bowl and Georgia vs. Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl. Loyette says, "Fight on Trojans, and Go Warriors!" Okay, actually, Loyette just sort of let out a sleepy squeak, but that's how I interpret her sentiments. :)

Also about to begin: the Sabres-Penguins outdoor hockey game, with 73,000 crazed Buffalonians packing the Bills' iced-over football stadium. Kevin at Bfloblog calls it "the biggest sporting event to occur in the City of Buffalo in my lifetime."

Now if you'll excuse me, Becky and Loyette are both napping at the moment, and I'm going to try and do the same. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last 36 hours (something I know will be quite common for the next several weeks/months/decades), and I gotta rest up before the Rose Bowl!

Mike Tran says, "Fight on!"

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

That's USC alum Michael Walsh, a.k.a. lex icon, at left, and UCLA alum Mike Tran at right, looking pretty sanguine under the circumstances.

(This is all because I won a bet, in case you forgot.)

In accordance with the terms of the bet, Tran's ride will be flag-adorned all day today and tomorrow. So there will be one extra Trojan car driving around the streets of L.A. (or Orange County, whatever) during the Rose Bowl.

Hopefully Mike will manage to contain his self-loathing enough not to drive across the center line or anything. ;)

Here's another shot of just the car with the flag:

Fight on Trojans, Beat the Illini!!!

Strickland still leads contest

By Brendan Loy

Alabama's win over Colorado in the Independence Bowl kept Hal Strickland in sole possession of the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest lead. Things could change a lot tomorrow, though, with six bowl games worth two points apiece. Strickland picked Air Force, Georgia Tech, South Florida, Kentucky, Clemson and Oklahoma State. Everyone else's picks can be viewed here and here.

Current standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Strickland still leads contest" »

Pick 'em standings

By Brendan Loy

Penn State beat Texas A&M in the Alamo Bowl, so the top six in the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest remain unchanged from the last update.

If Alabama beats Colorado in the Independence Bowl tomorrow, Hal Strickland will remain in sole possession of first place. If Colorado wins, D. Brooks will tie him for the lead.

Full updated standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Pick 'em standings" »

Strickland takes pick 'em lead

By Brendan Loy

Hal Strickland took sole possession of first place in the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest moments ago as Mississippi State beat Central Florida, 10-3 in the Liberty Bowl.

Strickland picked Penn State in the evening's final game, the Alamo Bowl against Texas A&M. But he will stay in first place at the end of the night even if the Aggies win.

Mark Gardner and 2005-06 pick 'em winner Brian Dupuis are tied for second place, one point behind Strickland. They also picked Penn State, as did Scott Fort, Courtney Tawresey and D. Brooks, who are tied for fourth place, two back of Strickland.

All of the bowls for the remainder of 2007 are worth two points each; the non-BCS New Year's Day bowls are worth three apiece; and the BCS bowls are worth five each. Current standings after the jump.

Continue reading "Strickland takes pick 'em lead" »

UCLA reportedly hires Neuheisel

By Brendan Loy

ESPN's announcer for the Meineke Car Care Bowl just stated that the AP is reporting that UCLA has hired former Washington coach and Bruin alum Rick Neuheisel, who left a trail of recruiting-violation carnage in his wake at both UW and Colorado, as its new head coach.

Hahahahahaha.

The score, by the way, is Wake Forest 17, UConn 10 in the closing seconds, with the Demon Deacons running out the clock.

UPDATE: Wake wins, 24-10. Hal Strickland and Mark Gardner are now tied for the lead in the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest. One of them will take sole possession of the lead depending on who wins the Liberty Bowl: Strickland if Mississippi State wins, Gardner if UCF wins.

Meanwhile, here's an article about Neuweasel.

And in basketball, Tennessee and Gonzaga are underway. Go Zags!

Bowl update

By Brendan Loy

After Boston College's win over Michigan State in the Champs Sports Bowl, there's a four-way tie atop the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest among Gerry deSimas, Mark Gardner, Anthony H. and Hal Strickland. All four picked Oregon State over Maryland in the currently-underway Emerald Bowl, but in the also-underway Texas Bowl between TCU and Houston, deSimas picked Houston while the others picked the Horned Frogs. So deSimas will take sole possession of the lead if the Cougars win. If TCU wins, it'll be either a three-way tie among Gardner, Strickland and Anthony H. (if Oregon State wins) or a six-way tie among those three and JLR, Chris Healey and Lane Buchan (if Maryland wins). Both games are currently tied in the third quarter.

UPDATE: TCU wins, 20-13. So it'll be either a three-way or six-way tie. Oregon State leads Maryland 21-14 with 6:39 to go.

UPDATE 2: Beavers win! Finally, the Pac-10 pulls one out. Latest pick 'em contest standings here and after the jump. Also after the jump, scenarios for who will have the lead at the end of the day tomorrow.

Continue reading "Bowl update" »

Say it ain't so, D-Mac!

By Brendan Loy

Did Darren McFadden just ruin one of the few intriguing-on-paper matchups of this wretched bowl season by rendering himself ineligible?

UPDATE: Apparently it ain't so. The TV station that initially reported the story has retracted it and apologized.

A&M pep rally: Paterno on "death bed"

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

More here. And here's the video.

UPDATE: Here's the key part of the video:

UPDATE 2: More Joe Paterno humor here. "I'm not Hugh Hefner, you know!" (Hat tip: Jim.)

Holiday Bowl continues crazy 2007 football season

By David K.

Up 21-0 it looked like Texas was about to put the nail in the coffin with a recovery of a backwards lateral and return by the Longhorns, until, that is, the instant replay showed that as the ball was bouncing backwards towards the Texas sideline, a Texas coach/ballboy reached out for the ball and tipped it with his thumb before he drew back his hand*.  The result?  A unsporstmanlke conduct penalty that resulted in the ball being given back to ASU plus half the distance to the goal, 4 and 3 on the 7 yard line.  Carpenter tossed a short pass for a touchdown on the ensuing play, and proceeded to hold texas to a 3 and out on the next drive to get the ball back on the Texas side of the field.  WIth 10 minutes remaining in the first half, plenty of time for the Sun Devil's to make a comeback.

* Some may dispute whether the ball touched the young man's hand or not, it was tough to tell from some of the angles, however there were clearly Texas players and coaches on the field which would also have been an unsportsmanlike penalty anyway.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Aaaand Arizona State lays a massive egg for the Pac-10, committing five turnovers en route to a 52-34 Texas win. Dammit, Sun Devils!

In the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest, it's now a six-way tie for first place among Gerry deSimas, Hal Strickland, Mark Gardner, Chris Healey, Anthony H. and D. Brooks. Updated standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Holiday Bowl continues crazy 2007 football season" »

Bowl update

By Brendan Loy

Purdue leads Central Michigan 48-41 with five minutes left in the fourth quarter of the Motor City Bowl. Purdue led 34-13 at halftime, but the Chippewas have stormed back to make it a ballgame. If they complete the comeback and win, Andrew Long and Joey Kaufman will be tied for the lead in the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest; if the Boilers hang on to win, it'll be a nine-way tie among the other current co-leaders.

UPDATE: Tie game! CMU just scored a touchdown, and it's 48-48 with 1:09 left.

UPDATE 2: Purdue gets a field goal as time expires, and the Boilermakers win 51-48. Beat the drum!

So it's a nine-way tie. Updated standings here and after the jump.

P.S. Tomorrow at 8:00 PM on ESPN, San Diego will host the first bowl worth two points in the pick 'em contest: Arizona State vs. Texas in the Holiday Bowl. (Go Sun Devils!) Of the current co-leaders, David K., John Chung and Timugen picked ASU; Anthony H., D. Brooks, Gerry DeSimas, Hal Strickland, Mark Gardner and Chris Healey picked Texas. Overall, 48 contestants picked the 'Horns; 42 picked the Devils.

Continue reading "Bowl update" »

East Carolina stuns Boise State

By Brendan Loy

Boise State went from being last bowl season's Cinderella to this bowl season's most overwhelming favorite, according to the contestants in the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest -- and it seems the Broncos preferred the glass slipper. Boise lost to East Carolina last night, 41-38 in the Hawaii Bowl.

Only five people in the Pick 'em Contest -- Chris Healey, Edward Eylar, Larry Caplin, Marge, and Becky Loy -- saw that coming. The other 85 contestants picked the Broncos. That's 94.4%, the largest percentage picking any one team in the bowl contest's three-year history. (111 of 118 contestants, 94.1%, picked Texas over Iowa last year, and were just barely right.)

This isn't the first time a huge majority in the Pick 'em Contest has been wrong. In 2005-06, the two heaviest favorites both lost: Nebraska stunned 115-13 favorite Michigan, and Utah defeated 119-9 favorite Georgia Tech. Last year, the five most lopsided games, prediction-wise, all went according to form, but the sixth-biggest underdog, Florida State, beat a UCLA team that was favored 99-19.

Anyway, East Carolina's win means that nobody has a perfect prediction record in this year's Pick 'em Contest. Healey joins the previous co-leaders in an 11-way tie for first with 5 points out of a possible 6. In the contest's three-year history, this is the earliest point, by far, that everyone has missed at least one game. Mark Gardner, Darrin Bartley and Carl Lindecrantz started 10-0 in 2005; Colin Pedicini started 11-0 last year.

Complete standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "East Carolina stuns Boise State" »

Mormon miracle in Las Vegas

By Brendan Loy


Oh, sweet schadenfreude...

It looked like UCLA was going to pull a stunning comeback against BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl moments ago, as the Bruins -- whose kicker had previously hit field goals from 50 and 52 yards -- needed only a 28-yarder as time expired to win the game. But a BYU player got a hand on the ball and it fell just short of the goal post, giving the Cougars a dramatic 17-16 win (and changing the planned title of this post from "BYU cougs it" to the headline you see above). Somewhere, Mitt Romney is cheering.

Said ESPN announcer Brad Nessler, referring to UCLA defender Bruce Davis: "He played his guts out tonight, literally." Wow, that sounds painful. Though I suppose it's better than being literally on a roller coaster to hell...

Anyway, BYU's win means that 10 contestants in the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest are still perfect at 5-0. It also means that Becky and Alphadog finally got one right; they were 0-4 through the first four bowls, but they both picked BYU over fUCLA. Latest standings here and after the jump.

Continue reading "Mormon miracle in Las Vegas" »

FSU - 36 = ?

By JLR

FSU has 36 players on its roster that won't be playing in the Music City Bowl due to injury, rule violations, or academic dishonesty.

Brendan, is it too late to change our picks? ;-)

Bowl update

By Brendan Loy

Bowl season is barely underway, and already we have our first game-changing blown call. Sorry, Navy!

Meanwhile, after Florida Atlantic's 44-27 win over Memphis, only 15 people are still perfect in the 3rd annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest. Both of the winners so far were underdogs, according to the contestants: 57 of 90 picked Navy over Utah, and 56 picked Memphis over FAU.

Now underway is the second-most lopsided bowl game of the year, prediction-wise: 84 contestants picked Cincinnati, while only 6 picked Southern Miss in the Papa Johns Bowl. But so far, the underdogs are (again) ahead: Southern Miss leads 7-0 with 10:08 left in the second quarter.

None of the 15 co-leaders picked the Golden Eagles, so if they win, there will be no one left with a perfect record in the contest.

Later today: the New Mexico Bowl and the Las Vegas Bowl. (GOOOOO MORMONS, BEEEEEAT BRUINS!) Schedule here.

UPDATE: Cincy wins. Still a 15-way tie for first, at 3-0.

With Chow out, is it Oregon's Belotti to UCLA?

By David K.

LA Daily News is reporting that Oregon Coach Mike Belotti has met with UCLA officials regarding the Bruins' head coaching position. Norm Chow, former USC offensive guru, has announced he is not interested in the job (followed by a collective sigh of relief from Trojan nation). Rick Neuheisel, the scourge of both the Colorado and Washington programs, is also still in the running.

Utah strikes first

By David K.

Utah has scored the first points of bowl season, scoring a touchdown in the second quarter of the Poinsettia Bowl. Plenty of time for more action, but only 32 of the 90 contestants in the pool picked the Utes to win, a victory here would put a lot of people in second place!

UPDATE

Utah wins 35-32, holding off a last minute comeback from Navy who scored on their longest TD pass of the year and recovered the onside kick, but lost the ball on an interception when their receiver slipped. Bowl season starts off with a bang!

Only a few hours left!

By Brendan Loy

Just another friendly reminder that 9:00 PM EST tonight is the deadline to enter (or re-enter) the 3rd annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest. Go Navy, Beat Utah!

UPDATE: Bowl season is underway! And so is the Bowl Pick 'em contest. 90 contestants entered; you can view their picks by bowl or by contestant. The results will be posted here.

On quite a few bowls, the contestants are almost evenly divided. For instance, 48 of the 90 believe Texas will win the Holiday Bowl; 42 believe Arizona State will win. 48-42 margins also exist in the Insight Bowl (Oklahoma State over Indiana) and the Gator Bowl (Texas Tech over Virginia). In the Meineke Car Care Bowl, the split is 46-44 in favor of UConn over Wake Forest. Georgia Tech is favored over Fresno State by the same margin, 46-44, in the Humanitarian Bowl. And the contestants are split right down the middle on the Peach Bowl: 45 think Auburn will win, 45 think Clemson will win.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the most lopsided bowls, prediction-wise, are the Hawaii Bowl (Boise State 85-5 over East Carolina), the Papa Johns Bowl (Cincinnati 84-6 over Southern Miss), the Rose Bowl (USC 83-7 over Illinois), the Las Vegas Bowl (BYU 81-9 over UCLA... hahaha) and the Capital One Bowl (Florida 80-10 over Michigan).

Rose Bowl aside, the favorites in the other BCS bowls are Georgia in the Sugar Bowl (51-39 over Hawaii), Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl (73-17 over West Virginia), Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl (58-32 over Kansas), and LSU in the Mythical National Championship Game (63-27 over Ohio State).

Bowl pick 'em reminder

By Brendan Loy

If you haven't yet entered the 3rd annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest (hey, come to think of it, I haven't entered yet!), you (and I) have just over 32 hours left to do so. The deadline is 9:00 PM EST tomorrow, which is when people across the country will drop whatever they're doing, sit down on their couches, turn on their TVs, and unite as one nation to watch the eagerly anticipated San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl between a team that notched its first win of the season against UCLA (Utah) and a team that won for the first time in 44 years over another team notched its first win of the season against UCLA (Navy).

Speaking of UCLA... hey Mike, how's it coming on that car flag?

Er, so anyway, sign up now! And if you already made your picks but want to change 'em, just enter again. The deadline is the same regardless; your last entry will be the one that counts.

Washington DC given the ax

By David K.

Some critics of Tyrone Willingham believed it was his unwillingness to make staff changes that led to his ouster at Notre Dame 3 years ago. Whether that was true or not, it can't be said this time, as he has fired Defensive Coordinator Kent Baer along with Special Teams coach Bob Simmons. Defensive struggles were one of the Huskies' lowlights this season, and many were pushing for Baer's firing.

L.A. Coliseum to seek corporate sponsor

By Brendan Loy

There finally appears to be some progress in the negotiations between USC and the L.A. Coliseum Commission... but this part concerns me:

The school...will allow the commission to pay for a stadium overhaul -- one that would cost in the neighborhood of $50 million -- by allowing the use of USC's logos in a stadium naming-rights deal.

"In the interest of getting a deal done we have ... agreed to allow the commission to do a naming-rights deal and cooperate with the commission to get a single, prime naming-rights sponsor to name the Coliseum and put together a package," Dickey said. "As long as the money that was raised from that will go toward improving the Coliseum, based on the list of improvements that we feel are necessary and the specific deadlines by which they must be done."

Does this mean the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is going to become the Office Depot Coliseum of Los Angeles or some such blasphemy? Good lord.

(Suggested corporate sponsor via Boi From Troy, who blogged about this possibility way back in September.)

Vintage college football calendars

By Brendan Loy

Since my shameless plugs for Julie worked, I figured I might as well try another sort of shameless plug... one that could make me money!

I recently got an e-mail from a fellow at Asgard Press inviting me to check out their selection of Vintage College Football calendars. They're pretty nifty, if you're into old-timey-lookin' football type stuff. Here, for instance, is what the cover of their Notre Dame calendar looks like:

They've got a ton of other schools, too, including Tennessee. Alas, no USC -- that's in the works for next year.

Anyway, they make great stocking-stuffers... if you have an enormous stocking. :) Okay, okay, they make great gifts, anyway, for the old-school football fan in your life. Go over and see for yourself! And if you decide to buy one, be sure to use that link to get to it: you'll get a 10% discount, and I'll get a 15% cut. So everybody wins! :)

Saban to WVU?!

By Brendan Loy

With Rich Rodriguez leaving West Virginia to become, at long last, the new coach at Michigan, the question now becomes who will be West Virginia's new coach, and it appears that a possible candidate is... that's right, kids...

Nick Saban.

Sources close to University President Mike Garrison have informed WBGV that Nick Saban's agent has contacted WVU regarding our vacant head-coaching position.

These sources tell us that Saban is extremely unhappy in Tuscaloosa and has failed to recapture the situation he had in Baton Rouge with LSU. The purpose of the agent's call was to express initial interest in the position and to have WVU athletics put together a compensation package enough to lure Saban from Alabama.

LOL!! Just when you thought Bobby Petrino might take over the title of "most blatantly disloyal sleazeball coach east of the Mississippi Dennis Erickson," King Saban reasserts his claim to the throne...

Chow-fUCLA update

By Brendan Loy

The Tennessee Titans have given UCLA permission to interview offensive coordinator Norm Chow for the Bruins' head coaching position, and the interview reportedly took place Saturday night in Kansas City.

Appy State vs. Delaware: Hot! Hot! Hot!

By Brendan Loy

Speaking of college football playoffs... tonight in Chattanooga, it's Appalachian State (12-2) against the Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (11-3) for the Division I-AA national championship. With a win, the Michigan-conquering Mountaineers can earn an unprecedented third straight title -- and maybe, just maybe, quarterback Armanti Edwards can establish himself as a legit candidate for the 2008 Heisman Trophy. The game is at 8pm EST on ESPN2.

No Dorrell for Duke... it's Cutcliffe

By Jay Johnson

Looks like the Dookies have stolen themselves a coach from Tennessee.  According to local reports, Tennessee offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe has been offered and is expected to accept the head coaching job in Durham.

Best wishes to Coach Cut.  I hate to see him go, but I certainly understand the desire to make about 3 times what he's making as OC here.  He's going to have a long tough road to get any football success at Duke, but I certainly think he'll do a fine job.

Fight on!

By Brendan Loy

The USC Trojans are your 2007-08 college football national champions! Well, sort of.

The Michigan saga continues

By Brendan Loy

MGoBlog: "Something is rotten in the state of Schembechler, and it will not yield the throne."

Dorrell to Duke?

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

That reminds me, I saw a UCLA Bruins football calendar selling for $0.49 at a Knoxville store yesterday. Seemed like a pretty fair price to me. I was sorely tempted to buy it and send it to Mike Tran, with the price tag still attached. ;)

Ty stays but Turner goes?

By David K.

Interesting follow up to the news that Ty Willingham will have at least one more year as Washington's coach.  Athletic director Todd Turner, the man who brought him in and one of his most vocal supporters has resigned.  Some are pointing to his support of Willingham, which seems strange considering the recent decisions to keep him on and the continued support of UW President Mark Emmert for the coach.  Others point to his difficulty in raising funds for Husky Stadium renovations and fallout over remarks made last year when holding up Northwest rival Oregon as an example for the Huskies to follow. 

A nationwide search for a new AD will be conducted and in the interim UW Vice President for external affairs, , will act as athletic director.

Meanwhile in the Pac-10, reports are that Washington State is going to hire Eastern Washington coach Bob Wulff as their next head coach.  Wulff is a WSU alum, where he played from 1985-1989 under current Arizona State coach Dennis Erickson.  Wulff has coached at the 1-AA EWU since 2000 and has been named three times as the Big Sky conference Coach of the year since then.  His Eagles lost to Appalachian State in the 1-AA Quarterfinals earlier this month.

Norm Chow to fUCLA?

By Brendan Loy

Rumors on the Internets are that he's been offered the job. That'd certainly be interesting.

P.S. The Daily Breeze also reports that Chow is a top candidate. And late last month, Conquest Chronicles quoted ESPN's Bruce Feldman as reporting that, according to a source, "Chow really wants the job." We shall see.

Shocking upset at Heisman ceremony!

By David K.

Naw just kidding, Tebow won. :)

Tebow, a Florida sophomore, is the first underclassman to win the award, and could potentially repeat at least once to tie Archie Griffin, the only two-time winner. Heck, Tebow could even become a three-time winner. It'll be interesting to see if he can live up to expectations over the next few years, and even more interesting to consider if he can exceed them. Congratulations Tim Tebow, Heisman Trophy Winner 2007.

Score one for diversity

By David K.

Amidst all the discussion of diversity in the coaching ranks of Division 1-A football, Navy has hired what is believed to be the first polynesian head coach in the league's history by promoting assistant coach Ken Niumatalolo to the academy's top football job. Niumatalolo is a graduate of the University of Hawaii, where he was a three time letterman at quarterback and led the Rainbow Warriors to their first postseason bowl game in 1989.

Heisman history set for tomorrow night

By Brendan Loy

For the first time in history, a sophomore will win the Heisman tomorrow night. The finalists are Florida's Tim Tebow, Arkansas's Darren McFadden, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Hawaii's Colt Brennan, but the result is already a foregone conclusion: Tebow will win, according to StiffArmTrophy.com, which tabulates actual declared ballots, and has never been wrong.

In other Heisman-related news, sports writers Don Jaeger and Jim Henry are releasing a book in January called "Tarnished Heisman," containing transcripts of conversations of Reggie Bush supposedly "acknowledging he owed money" to his would-be New Era agents. The upshot is that, at the least, Bush could lose his Heisman if the transcripts are taken seriously. As always, Yahoo! Sports is at the forefront of reporting this story, though their headline is oddly uninformative and actually kind of funny: "Bush hit with book." I have this mental picture of somebody whacking Reggie over the head with a Harry Potter book or something. Heh.

UPDATE: James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal had a slightly different take, prefacing its reference to the headline "Bush hit with book" by quipping, "That Laura Sure Can Throw." Heh.

I wonder which book Bush was hit with?

The media's obsession with race is hurting black coaches

By Brendan Loy

Quick, everybody get out your race cards! Apparently the reason Nebraska hired LSU's Bo Pelini instead of Buffalo's Turner Gill is because Gill is black. Yup, there's no other possible explanation. Cornhusker Nation is a bunch of dirty racists!! [rolls eyes]

Look, it sucks that there are only five black head coaches in Division I-A college football. (Based on percentage of the population, there should be 15.) But it truly boggles my mind that the race-obsessed media doesn't grasp the degree to which they're making the situation worse by focusing so heavily on race, to the exclusion of other relevant issues, whenever a black coach is hired, fired or considered for a coaching job.

Continue reading "The media's obsession with race is hurting black coaches" »

Get your facts straight, people!

By Brendan Loy

ESPN has posted its official bowl preview, and I have to say that I'm really, really annoyed by this factually erroneous statement about the USC-Illinois Rose Bowl game:

The Tournament of Roses chose tradition (sorry, Georgia) over a better matchup.

I've seen numerous sports "journalists" make similar statements over the last few days. Only problem: it's not true. The Rose Bowl did not have Georgia as an option.

Continue reading "Get your facts straight, people!" »

Willingham not fired

By Brendan Loy

Washington will not fire Ty Willingham. (And thank goodness. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton might have led a march on Pac-10 headquarters if Dorrell and Willingham had both been fired in the space of a week.) There is speculation, however, that the Huskies will "clean house" with regard to the defensive coaches, starting with coordinator Kent Baer. That would please resident BrendanLoy.com Husky fan David K., who commented Sunday that "the biggest failure is our defense and our DC needs to be gone now. If Willingham does not fire him, I will move towards the fire Willingham camp." That's what a lot of Irish fans were saying back in 2004 with regard to Ty's coordinators, including Baer (who followed him from Notre Dame to UW), and it didn't happen, but hopefully this time Ty won't make the Bush-esque mistake of putting loyalty before competence.

In other Washington-state sports news, #17 Gonzaga lost to #8 Wazzu last night, the Zags' first-ever loss at home while ranked.

3rd annual Bowl Pick 'em: enter now!

By Brendan Loy

It's that time of year again... time for the 3rd annual Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest!

Actually, I'm getting the contest started a little earlier this year than I did in 2005 and 2006, because you never know when the baby might come, and I want to be sure this is all set up in advance. :) The deadline to enter is December 20 at 9pm EST, which is when the Poinsettia Bowl kicks off.

Anyway, you can sign up now! If you wish to change any of your picks before the deadline, you can simply enter again. Only your last entry will count.

More details after the jump.

Continue reading "3rd annual Bowl Pick 'em: enter now!" »

Irish Trojan doubleheader on ESPN

By Brendan Loy

ESPN's Irish Trojan doubleheader at Madison Square Garden, a.k.a. the Jimmy V Classic, is going well for the good guys so far. Notre Dame leads Kansas State, 59-53, with four minutes left. Luke Harangody is more than holding his own against the Wildcats' much-hyped Michael Beasley, with 19 points and 14 rebounds to Beasley's 17 and 11.

After ND and KSU finish up, it's USC vs. #2 Memphis and O.J. Mayo against Derrick Rose.

UPDATE: Irish win, 68-59! Kyle McAlarney finished with 18 points, including a clutch three-pointer from the top of the key with a couple of minutes left that essentially sealed the win.

UPDATE 2: At halftime, it's 29-24 Trojans. Nice!

UPDATE 3: OVERTIME! Daniel Hackett missed a free throw that would have put USC up 1 with 5.9 seconds left... and Taj Gibson has fouled out, so overtime may not be in our favor here.

UPDATE 4: Memphis survives, 62-58 in OT. It was a sloppy game all around, but with a lot of good defense. Nice effort by the Trojans, who lose their second down-to-the-wire decision against a Top 4 opponent in the last 72 hours. If only Hackett had hit that foul shot...

Dorrell done

By David K.

Karl Dorrell has been officially fired by UCLA.  The Bruins schizophrenic season pretty much mirrored the chaos of the football season overall, but even his near miss at the Rose Bowl wasn't enough to assuage the Bruin nation (think that loss to Notre Dame hurt a bit?).  So who will be the next coach forced to face off against Pete Carroll and the Trojans?

Defensive Coordinator DeWayne Walker will serve as interim coach for the teams bowl game against BYU.

The BCS Bowl system for Division I-A football sucks

By JLR

As Brendan has posted repeatedly over the last 48 hours, the whole BCS process sucks the sweat off a dead man's balls. (Kudos to you who get the reference...)  But I thought I'd take my power as a guestblogger to make this a post.  Not that I'm actually expecting the NCAA to take notice of this post, or actually care what college football fans want or anything, but I feel it needs to be said quite explicitly.

The BCS Bowl system for Division I-A football sucks.

Continue reading "The BCS Bowl system for Division I-A football sucks" »

College football's perfect storm

By Brendan Loy

An odd analogy occurred to me yesterday, one that links two of my great passions: hurricanes and college football. The analogy is this: in a way, the 2007 college-football season reminds me of the 2005 hurricane season. Both featured a series of absolutely extraordinary events, one after another after another -- each of which seemed so improbable as to be almost impossible, and yet no matter how unlikely, they just kept happening. Each event would have been incredible by itself; in combination with all the others, they got to the point of defying all adjectival description. All you could really do is sit back and say, "Wow." At some point, you just had to concede that this season simply didn't follow the rules.

Seven named storms in June and July. A Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane in July. Four Cat. 5s during the course of the season, including three of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded -- all in the space of seven weeks. A monster hurricane threatening Houston three weeks after another monster hurricane destroyed New Orleans. A two-mile-wide pinhole eye rotating around the edge of a 40-mile-wide outer eye. A tropical storm making landfall in Spain. A cold-water hurricane that seemed to defy the laws of thermodynamics. A grand total of 28 storms, shattering the old record and pushing us into the Greek alphabet by mid-October. Two Greek-alphabet hurricanes, one of them a major hurricane. The season's final storm forming on December 30 and lasting until January 6.

Appalachian State winning at Michigan. Syracuse, a 37-point underdog, winning at Louisville. Stanford, a 41-point underdog, winning at USC. Navy beating Notre Dame. Thirteen Top 5 teams losing to unranked teams. The #1 and #2 teams both losing in the same weekend three separate times -- including both of the last two weekends of the regular season. Ohio State twice rising from #3 to #1 as a result of those double-upset weekends. LSU twice losing while ranked #1, yet still finishing the regular season ranked #2. West Virginia choking away a national-title shot at home, at night, against 4-7 Pitt, a 28-point underdog. UConn a co-champion in the Big East. Buffalo a co-champion in the MAC East. Kansas and Missouri, national-championship contenders. South Florida, briefly ranked #2 in the land. Notre Dame going 3-9. Illinois going to the Rose Bowl. Hawaii going to the BCS. Cal going from the nation's unofficial #1 team for a few hours to 6-6 seven weeks later. Oregon, similarly, going from 8-1 and #2 in the nation to 8-4 and unranked. Nebraska giving up 76 points to Kansas one week, dropping 73 on Kansas State the following week, and losing 65-51 in its finale. North Texas 49, Navy 45... at halftime. The Play II. A hyperactive coaching carousel, complete with SEC coach-swapping (kinky!). Les Miles going, in the space of 12 hours, from allegedly leaving LSU for Michigan to unexpectedly leading LSU to the BCS title game. An Ohio State team that many suspected of being fraudulent even when it was undefeated, losing at home to an unranked team in Week 11, falling to #7, rebounding to #5 with a win in Week 12, then rising all the way back to #1 by the end of Week 14 without playing a game. LSU climbing from #7 in the second-to-last BCS standings to #2 in the final standings -- and going to the championship game as a two-loss team. A sophomore, playing for a three-loss team, about to win the Heisman. And did I mention USC lost to Stanford? At the Coliseum? And that they'd be in the BCS title game if they'd won?

What a year. Truly unbelievable.

P.S. Also yesterday, I thought of an argument for why, even after USC-Stanford, Louisville-Syracuse, and WVU-Pitt, Appalachian State over Michigan is still the biggest upset of the year, and for that matter, of all time.

Continue reading "College football's perfect storm" »

Karl Dorrell, you're fired

By Brendan Loy

UCLA's embattled controversial godawful head coach will reportedly be fired this week.

Trojan Nation will miss him dearly. We do appreciate the free touchdown he gave us as a parting gift on Saturday, though. Thanks for the memories, Coach Dorrell!

Beat the Illini!

By Brendan Loy

Here are the final BCS standings, and here is the bowl schedule.

As expected, it's LSU-tOSU for the Mythical National Championship -- a moniker that I'm adopting for this season without a champion -- in New Orleans on January 7.

Also in New Orleans, it'll be Georgia-Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl. If the undefeated Warriors beat the #5-ranked Bulldogs (which I seriously doubt they will, but if they do), they should win the AP championship. ("Should" as in "it would be just," not as in "I predict it would happen." No, definitely not the latter.)

Possibly holding a more realistic chance of capturing the AP championship is Oklahoma, which will face West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl. SMQ writes that OU has "a distant chance to challenge LSU for a split title in the AP ballot if the respective margins of victory work in the Sooners' favor." But good lord, if LSU were forced to share another national championship, their fans would be insufferable. It's the opposite scenario -- LSU winning an AP title, but not a BCS title -- that would have been delicious; a repeat of 2003-04 would just be annoying. I doubt it will happen, though, in any event. 96 points is a lot to make up.

In the Orange Bowl, Virginia Tech will play Kansas. Yes, Kansas got the last at-large bid (not counting the automatic at-large, Hawaii). Sorry, Arizona State. Whether or not it's because the BCS hates the Pac-10, the fact is that the Sun Devils are going to the Holiday Bowl to play Texas. Also on the outside looking in: two-loss, #6-ranked Missouri, which came into the season's final weekend ranked #1 in the land, then fell all the way to the Cotton Bowl (vs. Arkansas) with its loss in the Big 12 title game. Is it fair that #13-ranked Illinois and #8-ranked Kansas got into the BCS ahead of #6-ranked Missouri, which beat both of those teams? No, of course it's not, but then, nobody ever promised "fairness" when it comes to the non-title-game BCS bowls. And hey, Chase Daniel vs. Darren McFadden? I'll watch that game. Er, if I'm not in the hospital on New Year's Day with a laboring wife or a crying newborn, that is.

But anyway, enough of all that, let's talk about the Grandaddy of Them All.

The Rose Bowl, for the first time ever, will feature USC and Illinois. I know some Trojans are underwhelmed by this matchup, especially considering the more compelling possibilities we thought we might see, like USC-Ohio State or USC-Georgia. Personally, though, I'm excited. My mom went to Illinois, as did my friend Dmytro, so this will be a good opportunity for some friendly and familial trash-talking. Plus, the Illini and their fans will undoubtedly be very excited about their fifth-ever Rose Bowl (and first since 1984), so it'll be especially fun to squash their dreams like a little bug. :) As for Ohio State: we'll get 'em next year.

Fight on, Trojans!! Beat the Illini!!

It's LSU

By Brendan Loy

The coaches poll is out, and LSU is a solid #2, well ahead of Oklahoma, Georgia and Virginia Tech. I don't think there's any serious doubt now that it'll be tOSU vs. LSU in the Mythical National Championship game. Also: another first-place vote for Hawaii!

1. Ohio State (46) 1,469
2. LSU (11) 1,418
3. Oklahoma (2) 1,331
4. Georgia 1,277
5. Virginia Tech 1,242
6. USC 1,227
7. Missouri 1,104
8. Kansas 1,099
9. West Virginia 1,010
10. Hawaii (1) 994

UPDATE: Okay, so let's do some bowl projections. The title game is tOSU vs. LSU. The Rose Bowl gets first pick to replace the Buckeyes, but they can't pick Georgia without the Sugar Bowl's consent under Rule 3C of the Team-Selection Procedures. So you can forget about the folks in Pasadena eschewing Big Ten-Pac 10 tradition to set up a USC-Georgia matchup. They probably wouldn't have done that anyway, but even if they want to, they can't. So it's USC vs. Illinois in the Rose Bowl. (No other potential USC vs. Somebody Else matchup is sufficiently compelling to even make the Rose Bowl think about not selecting a Big Ten team.)

The Sugar Bowl will pick Georgia to replace LSU. Virginia Tech is automatically slotted into the Orange Bowl and Oklahoma into the Fiesta Bowl. Then each of those bowls picks from the pool of available teams in the following order: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar. West Virginia (as Big East champion) and Hawaii (as WAC champion in the Top 12) must be given bids. Contenders for the one remaining genuine at-large spot include Missouri, Kansas and Arizona State. Boston College or Clemson might be in the mix at #14, but no way are they getting picked. And for that matter, neither is Missouri. Basically, it's between Kansas and ASU for the final spot.

So anyway, who does the Orange Bowl pick to play Virginia Tech? The conventional wisdom has been that they choose West Virginia, but now the two-loss Mountaineers are damaged goods. Then again, so is everybody else! But Stewart Mandel thinks they'll pick Kansas, which would send West Virginia to Glendale and Hawaii to New Orleans. Alternatively, if the Orange Bowl picks WVU, the Fiesta Bowl can either set up Oklahoma vs. Kansas (a Big 12 game that never happened this season) or Oklahoma vs. Arizona State. I'm guessing it's the latter, but I could be wrong. Obviously it won't be Oklahoma vs. Missouri again. And obviously Hawaii is going to the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia no matter what.

So really, the Orange and Fiesta Bowls are the only question marks. The MNC, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are set. As for the others, I'm going to buck the Mandel Thesis and assume the Orange Bowl picks WVU, in which case:

Mythical National Championship Game: Ohio State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State (or possibly Kansas)

P.S. I can't resist an I told you so. This is what I wrote immediately after LSU's loss to Arkansas last week:

[D]on't believe anyone who says "LSU's title hopes are dead." They're not. All the Tigers need is for West Virginia to lose (to UConn tomorrow or to Pitt next Saturday) and Oklahoma to win the Big 12, and they'll be right back in the hunt. ... [LSU would have] a more compelling case than any of the others would be able to make. So I think LSU is still effectively fourth in the BCS pecking order, behind the winner of tomorrow's Kansas-Missouri game (#1), West Virginia (#2) and Ohio State (#3).

I may do a whole post on this later, but the fact that so many pundits didn't see this coming -- to the point of declaring LSU's title hopes unequivocally dead as late as 8:11 PM yesterday, declaring the soon-to-be #2 team in the country's season "a disappointment" -- is just another example of the absolute failure of most football writers to have any foresight whatsoever when it comes to the BCS. I'm not saying they should have predicted this, certainly, but they should have recognized it as a possibility. You've got to be able to look past your preconceived notions (e.g., "West Virginia will crush Pitt") and past the current rankings (e.g., "LSU is #7, so they can't possibly reach #2") to think about what will occur if the unthinkable happens. And anyone who did that, realized that LSU was a very serious title contender even after the loss to Arkansas.

UPDATE: Rich Tellshow says "it looks almost certain that it will be OSU vs LSU."

UPDATE 2: Jerry Palm agrees, saying that to deny LSU the #2 spot, "the Harris voters would have to completely go off the wagon. ... [P]oll voters follow certain patterns. I'd say LSU is very safe."

LSU is #2 in AP poll; Hawaii gets one first-place vote

By Brendan Loy

Not that the AP poll matters for BCS purposes, but anyway, it's out.

LSU's margin is comfortable:

1. Ohio State (50) 1,578
2. LSU (11) 1,519
3. Oklahoma (1) 1,423
4. Georgia (1) 1,421
5. Virginia Tech (1) 1,380
6. USC 1,346
7. Missouri 1,195
8. Kansas 1,164
9. Florida 1,071
10. Hawaii (1) 1,050

According to Rich Tellshow's analysis, Virginia Tech will be #2 and LSU #3 in the computers, but with a projected difference of just 0.02 points in the BCS formula. That would mean the Tigers would need only 8 coaches and 16 Harris voters (or something in that neighborhood) to leapfrog them ahead of the Hokies. Given how far ahead LSU is over VT in the AP poll -- and given basic logic and common sense -- that seems quite likely.

But I'm still hoping against hope for LSU to be #3 in the BCS, somehow, so that they can win an AP championship but not a BCS championship, and sweet irony can reign supreme.

UPDATE: This sucks. It looks like the BCS is probably going to give us the result that most pundits wanted, as of last night. That doesn't mean "the system works" -- the system is still fatally flawed, structurally unable to produce a genuinely undisputed champion in a situation like this, or for that matter, any situation where there are more or less than two major-conference undefeated teams -- but some people will doubtless say "the system works!" when they see Ohio State #1 and LSU #2, if that indeed is how it works out. It would have been far better, for purposes of promoting chaos and discrediting the BCS, if Virginia Tech or Georgia were to sneak in at #2. I don't see that happening, though, unless the coaches or Harris voters do something totally out of left field. The pro-LSU consensus in the AP is significantly stronger than I expected, and implies that the coaches and Harris voters will probably see things the same way. Maybe they are a Borg collective consciousness, after all. :)

(And by "genuinely undisputed champion," I mean that just because the pundits and pollsters think Ohio State is #1 and LSU is #2, doesn't mean there aren't a half-dozen other teams and fan bases with extremely legitimate arguments that they belong in those spots.)

Pour some sugar on 12-0 Hawaii

By Brendan Loy

Hawaii is going to the BCS!

Specifically, they're going to the Sugar Bowl, where they'll play either LSU or Georgia. They got there by wrapping up a perfect 12-0 season with a 35-28 win over Washington, scoring 28 unanswered points to rally from a 28-7 deficit.

Now here's a question for you. If a two-loss team wins the BCS title game, and undefeated Hawaii beats the nation's #3 or #4 team in the Sugar Bowl, do the Warriors get a share of the national championship, via the AP? And if not, why the hell not? ... Anyway, more after the jump.

Continue reading "Pour some sugar on 12-0 Hawaii" »

Palm, Edwards predict LSU will be #2

By Brendan Loy

BCS guru Jerry Palm thinks it'll be Ohio State vs. LSU in the alleged title game. So does Brad Edwards of ESPN. Meanwhile, Rich Tellshow hasn't posted anything yet tonight (!), so I don't know what he thinks. [UPDATE: The BCS Guru is also projecting a LSU-tOSU final. (Hat tip: Wiz.)]

I agree that LSU is the most logical, defensible choice*, as I wrote last week. But I don't think it's all that easy to predict what the pollsters will do, because, as I keep saying, they aren't a Borg-like collective consciousness. Tomorrow's poll results will be a chaotic mish-mash of many individuals' disparate and contradictory opinions. Some people will have LSU #2 (or even #1) and some will have them #5 or lower. The entire Top 10 will be a mess, particularly #2 through #7, and so the vote-total gap between teams in that range may be much smaller than usual. Things are just that jumbled. And because the BCS formula looks at vote totals, not ranking numbers, I think the computers may decide this (because there, the formula does look at ranking numbers).

That said, Jerry Palm knows more about the BCS than I do, and he says that, in the battle for #2, "Virginia Tech might have better computer rankings. Oklahoma might be better with the polling numbers. But I don't think either has the combination that LSU will have." He admits, however, that nothing is certain, and quipped, "I'm getting ready to get in the fetal position and crawl under my desk."

*unless Hawaii wins.

UPDATE: Here are Stewart Mandel's bowl projections. He has Arizona State being squeezed out of a BCS bid by the Orange Bowl taking Kansas instead of West Virginia (thus forcing the Fiesta Bowl to choose between WVU and Hawaii, with ASU not an option).

Oh, please, God, let it happen

By Brendan Loy

What if the AP ranks LSU #2 (behind Ohio State), but the BCS ranks them #3? And then the BCS #2 team (Georgia, Oklahoma, USC, whoever) beats Ohio State in the BCS title game, while LSU convincingly wins the Sugar Bowl (which apparently won't be against Hawaii). Guess what? LSU is your AP champion!!!

No doubt they would solemnly reject the honor because "it's the not the system everyone agreed on."

UPDATE: HeismanPundit is thinking the same thing.

P.S. Who would the Sugar Bowl be against? Let's see. Time to update the BCS bowl projections...

Continue reading "Oh, please, God, let it happen" »

Is USC a BCS title contender?

By Brendan Loy

On ESPN, they're talking a lot about the Trojans. Kirk Herbstreit thinks either LSU or USC should be #2. Jesse Palmer thinks the debate should be between LSU, USC and Oklahoma.

Y'all know I'm a Trojan fan, but I'm not seeing it. If you're ranking on resume, well, the Trojans have the worst loss of the bunch (at home to Stanford), and not enough quality wins to make up for it (at 10-2 ASU and... um... vs. 8-4 Oregon State? at 6-6 Cal?). If you're ranking based on "who's playing hot now," you can make a case for the Trojans, but you can make a better case for Georgia. "But Georgia didn't even win its division!" you say. That's true, but now we're talking about resumes again. And as soon as you start talking about resumes, you have to talk about USC's loss to Stanford. And anyway you have to talk about resumes. It's intellectually bankrupt to focus exclusively on "who's playing hot now" while ignoring resumes. By that logic, you could potentially have a three-loss or four-loss team ranked ahead of an undefeated or one-loss team. You have to consider resumes as a significant part of your calculus, and I just don't see how USC has a serious case.

That said, I'm certainly not going to be jumping up and down about the injustice of it all if USC somehow sneaks into the title game. Frankly, no one "deserves" to be ranked #2 at this point. All of the contenders are massively flawed. I think the team with potentially the best argument is the one with no chance at all: Hawaii. And they're losing 21-0 to Washington right now, so never mind.

P.S. On SportsCenter, Pete Carroll made the injury argument: they're healthy now, they weren't healthy earlier in the season, they're the best team in the country when they're healthy. That might be true, but by that logic, why not put Oregon in the title game? They were the second-best team in the country when they were healthy! I know, I know: they're not healthy now, whereas USC is healthy now. But I'm deeply uncomfortable with this line of reasoning. If we go down this road of giving teams free passes because their losses occurred when they had injures, where does it end? Injuries, unfortunately, are part of the game. If you suffer too many of them, if you're not deep enough to withstand them, if your coaches can't game-plan around them, you suffer the consequences. You don't get a mulligan. Playoff opponents constantly say that "the regular season is the playoff." If we can discount USC's losses, particularly the loss to Stanford -- Stanford!! -- because Booty's finger was broken, well then, that argument is utterly exposed as completely bankrupt. If the regular season is the playoff, there is no conceivable way USC can go to the BCS title game.

P.P.S. West Virginia was the #2 team in the land until Pat White got injured tonight. Presumably, he'll be healthy by January 7. So, by Pete Carroll's logic, why not put the Mountaineers in the title game??

Because there's no crying in baseball, and there are no mulligans in football, that's why.

UPDATE: ESPN just had a graphic showing how many wins each contender has over teams with winning records. Virginia Tech has 6; Georgia, LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma all have 5. You know how many USC has? 2. Two. Same as Kansas. And they have a loss to Stanford to boot, by far the worst loss of the bunch. How can anyone possibly argue with a straight face, in light of those facts, that they deserve the #2 spot ahead of their competitors? I hate to argue with such vehemence against my own team, but I'm sorry, there is just no legitimate case for putting USC in the title game. A big win over a slightly suspect ASU team does not a whole season make, not when other teams in the running have their own impressive wins, and more of 'em. Frankly, what is Kirk Herbstreit smoking?

BCS CHAOS!!!!!

By Brendan Loy

PITT WINS!!!

MISSOURI TRAILS BY 14!!!

CHAOS!!!!!!

Kirk Herbstreit says if Oklahoma wins, "the BCS is going to implode. This is their worst nightmare... This is as bad as it's ever gotten. Who are you going to put in there?"

P.S. Why not Hawaii? No, they aren't good enough to be #2 in the country. But neither is anybody else. Faced with a bunch of lackluster choices, why not choose the one that hasn't lost a game? I predict Hawaii will get some unexpected second-place votes in the polls if they win tonight. Not a lot, obviously not enough to even sniff the title game, but a few, because some voters will surely think the same thing.

It's a shame the mid-major conferences weren't able to produce a better undefeated team this season, because a squad like 2007 Boise State or 2005 Utah (i.e., with a more impressive schedule and a record of more consistent performances, especially on the road) actually might get serious consideration in this situation.

Anyway, the more I think about this, the more I realize it's completely and utterly unpredictable who will be #2 in the BCS. Not until the polls actually come out will anyone be able to say with any confidence what is going to happen. As I wrote in comments, "in this situation, it's particularly foolish to think of 'the voters' as if they are a Borg-like collective consciousness. If Missouri loses, there will be massive variations among everybody's Top 10s, and the result will be very unpredictable." You'll have the same team getting second-place votes from some people and sixth-place votes from others, and this will be true up and down the standings. So who the heck knows? It's going to be an absolute mess. And I love it!!

UPDATE: It's official: Missouri loses, 38-17. Chaos reigns!!!!!

UPDATE 2: An interesting poll result over at ESPN. Unscientific, of course, but:

If Ohio State moves up to No. 1, which other team most deserves to play in the title game?

LSU 30.9%
Georgia 19.5%
Hawaii 15.5%
USC 10.3%
Oklahoma 8.7%
Kansas 6.9%
Virginia Tech 6.9%
Missouri 0.7%
West Virginia 0.6%

Win and you're in; lose, and it's chaos

By Brendan Loy

#1 Missouri and #2 West Virginia are both underway -- against Oklahoma and Pitt, respectively -- each needing only a win to earn a trip to the BCS title game. Meanwhile, all across the state of Ohio, they're flipping frantically back and forth between ESPN and ABC, hoping against hope that either the Sooners or the Panthers can make something happen.

Of course, if both the Sooners and the Panthers win, then we have some serious mass chaos on our hands. Georgia, LSU, Kansas and Oklahoma would all be arguing over a spot in New Orleans opposite Ohio State, with Virginia Tech, USC and Hawaii on the periphery of said argument. My guess: it'd be either LSU or Oklahoma. But the pollsters would likely be so divided among themselves about how to rank the entire Top 10 that the actual results might be unpredictable.

Anyway: GOOOO CHAOS!!! BEEEEAT ORDER!!!

UPDATE: Oklahoma and Missouri are tied 14-14 at halftime, and Pittsburgh leads 10-7 late in the third quarter. Chaos!! CHAOS!!!

UPDATE 2: Barring overtime, the Pitt-WVU game will end well before the Oklahoma-Missouri game. If Pitt wins, will the Sooners realize when the score is announced that it means Missouri is no longer the only team at the Alamodome potentially playing for a spot in the BCS title game?

P.S. It's 13-7 Pitt with 6:17 left.

Suppose WVU comes back and wins, 14-13. Lots of people are presumably watching this game at this point, so it's not like the Mountaineers' narrow escape against the lowly Panthers would go unnoticed. Is there any chance the voters think about jumping Ohio State ahead of West Virginia after a thoroughly unimpressive WVU win?

UPDATE 3: Gee, do you think the referees want West Virginia to play for the national championship? Good freaking grief. I am so sick of saying, this season, that "these refs are horrible" -- but THESE REFS ARE HORRIBLE.

UPDATE 4: Pitt leads 13-7, and has the ball, with 49 seconds left! And Missouri is down by 14!

CHAOS!!!!! CHAOS!!!!!!!!

UPDATE 5: PITT WINS!!!!! PITT WINS!!!!!!!!

USC 24, UCLA 7

By Brendan Loy

The Rose Bowl t-shirts!!! Mooooore money!!!

Six Pac-10 titles in a row. Woooo!!!

So... which car flag should Mike buy? ;)

UPDATE: A couple of pictures from the game, courtesy of the L.A. Times:

The Lopez Curse strikes again?

By Brendan Loy

Barring a late turnover returned for a USC touchdown, it looks like Vicki Lopez will once again lose a BrendanLoy.com contest after heading into the final event with the lead. The current USC margin of 17 points would make Sean Sullivan the winner of the USC prediction contest; Lopez would finish second. UCLA has the ball deep in their own territory with less than three minutes left.

UPDATE: UCLA punts it away, and USC has the ball near midfield with 1:44 left. You have to think the Trojans won't be too aggressive with their play-calling, so it looks like UCLA will beat the spread and Sullivan will win the pool.

UPDATE 2: Yup. USC 24, UCLA 7, final. Congrats, Sean!

BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

By Brendan Loy

They're underway at the Coliseum.

They're also underway in the SEC title game, and Tennessee leads LSU 7-6 late in the first quarter.

In the ACC, Virginia Tech beat BC, which virtually guarantees that Illinois will be eligible for a BCS at-large berth, and also helps Hawaii significantly. The only threat to the Warriors reaching the Top 12 now, assuming they beat Washington, is if Arizona State and Tennessee both leapfrog them in the BCS standings. (And even that might be okay, because if Tennessee wins, LSU might fall behind Hawaii.)

UPDATE: Trojans lead 17-7 at halftime. USC dominated the first half, but UCLA drove down the field in the final seconds to make it a ballgame. Dammit.

UPDATE 2: And at the start of the fourth quarter, Tennessee leads LSU, 14-13. If the Vols win, the Tigers won't go to the BCS at all, as UT and Georgia will take the SEC's two spots. Likewise, if Missouri loses to Oklahoma tonight, those Tigers will likely fall out of the BCS altogether as well, as Lex icon explains. So the last two teams ranked #1 in the regular season could both be left out of the big-money bowls! How crazy is that?

As crazy as everything else that's happened this season, I suppose.

UPDATE 3: Trojans looking like crap. This is, like, the opposite of Pete Carroll Second-Half MagicTM. Still 17-7.

UPDATE 4: HAHAHAHA!!! Karl Dorrell sucks!!! HAHAHAHAHA!!! USC 24, UCLA 7, with 12 minutes to go.

For those who missed it: the Bruins had the Trojans stopped near the goal line (I have to think even Pete Carroll would have gone for the field goal), but when faced with a choice of whether to decline a holding penalty and take their chances with 4th and goal from the 2, or accept the penalty and give the Trojans another shot at 3rd and goal from the 12, Dorrell inexplicably chose the latter, USC predictably marched right in for a touchdown, and I'll be mighty surprised if Dan Guerrero isn't calling a press conference to fire Dorrell at this very moment.

UPDATE 5: Meanwhile, Erik Ainge probably just threw away Tennessee's shot at the SEC title. An interception inside the LSU 5 yard line, and LSU has the ball, up by 7, with 2 minutes left. This after an earlier pick-6 gave LSU the lead.

UPDATE 6: LSU wins. The Tigers are going to the Sugar Bowl (barring a trip to the title game if chaos strikes later tonight), where they will almost certainly play Hawaii, if the Warriors beat Washington. With Tennessee losing, there is no way an undefeated Hawaii gets excluded from the BCS.

Virginia Tech is effectively eliminated from any national-title hopes, and Georgia's chances are severely hurt. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose tonight, you have to believe LSU gets the nod over Virginia Tech (which it crushed earlier this season) and over Georgia (a fellow two-loss team from the same conference that didn't even win its own division, whereas LSU won the conference). But it would be a debate among LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma and Kansas. Virginia Tech wouldn't even be in the discussion, IMHO, because of that loss to LSU. Nor would USC, not with the worst loss of the bunch.

Hail to the... Tigers valiant?

By Brendan Loy

Les Miles is staying at LSU.

Championship Saturday open thread

By Brendan Loy

Needless to say, it's a huge Saturday in college football, with championships to be decided in the SEC, Big 12, ACC, Pac-10, MAC, C-USA and Sun Belt... plus Hawaii (and maybe BYU??) playing for a BCS bid... plus West Virginia and Missouri each playing for a spot in the BCS title game, with Ohio State waiting in the wings if one falters, and the tantalizing prospect of mass chaos looming if they both falter... plus Chase Daniel, Matt Ryan, Pat White and Colt Brennan making their final Heisman arguments (although truthfully, Tim Tebow's probably already got it wrapped up, but maybe Daniel could catch Darren McFadden for second place with a big game today)... plus Florida International, against 2-9 North Texas, trying to avoid going winless for the second straight year... oh yeah, and there's also Army-Navy... and the Big Game... and the Civil War... and the Territorial Cup... and I heard a couple of schools in L.A. might be playing a game too. ;) Here's the schedule, and here's the TV listings.

Alas, I don't anticipate having too much time to blog about it all. So I'm posting this open thread, Daily Kos-style, to give y'all a place to comment on the day's action, at least until I post something else (or a guestblogger beats me to the punch).

Oh, and one more thing:

FIGHT ON, TROJANS!!! BEAT THE BRUINS!!!!!

Sullivan, Lopez battle for USC pool win

By Brendan Loy

As some of you have doubtless noticed, I haven't actually gotten around to posting an official update on the USC and Notre Dame prediction contests... all season long. Um, yeah, sorry about that!

Luckily, commenter and contestant Ken Stern has posted several unofficial updates, most recently on November 11... and if that update was correct (and I have no reason to believe otherwise, indeed my spot-checking confirms his calculations), two contestants -- Sean Sullivan and Vicki Lopez -- remain alive to win the USC pool, with the outcome to be decided by tomorrow's USC-UCLA game.

Sullivan and Lopez are among 13 contestants with 9-2 prediction records, but they have the lowest "point differentials" of the bunch, meaning they have come the closest to picking USC's margin of victory or defeat in each game. Lopez is a total of 104 points off to date, while Sullivan is a total of 106 points off. Sullivan picked USC to beat UCLA by 17; Lopez picked the Trojans to win by 27. That means Sullivan will win if USC either loses or wins by 20 points or less; Lopez will win if the Trojans win by 22 or more. If USC wins by exactly 21 points, they would finish tied, with identical point differentials of 110 and no further tiebreakers to separate them.

Interestingly enough, with the point spread set at 20 by most oddsmakers, the prediction contest almost literally comes down to a question of whether the Trojans cover. If they don't, Sullivan wins. If they do, Lopez wins, unless they win by exactly 20 (Sullivan still wins) or by 21 (it's a tie).

Anyway, the big question is, can Lopez (a.k.a. "Vicki from NJ") finally win a BrendanLoy.com contest? Three times -- in the 2005 and 2006 Oscar pools and the 2006 women's NCAA pool -- she has been in position to win heading into the final event of a contest, only to lose at the wire. Can the Trojans win big, and break the "Lopez Curse" tomorrow? :)

In the Notre Dame pool, by the way, Sandy Underpants won, clinching early and never looking back even as he went 1-3 through the last four games of the season. He correctly predicted that the Irish would go 3-9, but he managed to get four games wrong along the way (he thought they'd lose to UCLA and Stanford, but beat Navy and Air Force) to finish with an 8-4 prediction record. That was better than anyone else, though. Andrew Long and Ken Stern, who both thought the Irish would 6-6, tied for second with 7-5 prediction records (both missed the Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Navy and Air Force games); Stern finished second on the basis of a lower point differential (183 to 197). No one else got fewer than six games wrong.

I'll try to post full, official standings of both pools at some point. Maybe by the time the baby starts kindergarten. :)

Nebraska picks Pelini over Gill

By Brendan Loy

Nebraska's new head coach will reportedly be LSU's Bo Pelini, not Buffalo's Turner Gill. YAY!!! (Hat tip: DUP and Scientizzle.)

They're ecstatic over at UBfan.com.

Hopefully this means Gill stays at UB and builds that program for at least a good while longer. He's been mentioned as a possible candidate for some other openings (e.g. Duke, Wazzu), but it was widely believed that Nebraska in particular was the one job he'd drop everything for. If so, then the Bulls have dodged a major bullet. It'd be great to see them continue to build on this year's improvement, with Gill at the helm.

UPDATE: No comment from Nebraska's interim athetic director, interim coach, and possibly interim quarterback and interim kicker, Tom Osborne.

Meanwhile, it's looking like a mass exodus from Baton Rouge, with rumors on the Internets saying that LSU head coach Les Miles already has one foot out the door, heading for to Ann Arbor.

Dorrell blames Willingham Toledo

By Brendan Loy

Karl Dorrell is begging for one more year as UCLA's head coach. In the course of making his case, he says this: "I hate to say it, but the guy who was before me screwed it up for me. And I had to clean it up and then rebuild." That's right, folks, Dorrell is blaming Bob Toledo, who was fired in 2002, for the Bruins' continued woes. And you thought the Notre Dame fans still blaming Ty Willingham were bad!! And this is coming from Dorrell himself!! LOL!! Way to take responsibility. You stay classy, Coach Dorrell.

More good stuff at DumpDorrell.com.

Alas, while I personally would love to see Dorrell stick around as UCLA's coach forever, I'm afraid it is USC's sad duty to dispense with him once and for all tomorrow. Ah, well -- it'll be well worth it, of course, not just for the Rose Bowl bid, not just for the win over our hated rival, but also for the pictures of Mike Tran driving around L.A. in his sweet Trojanmobile on Rose Bowl day.

BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

P.S. I checked the Bruins' roster, and in case anyone was wondering, no, UCLA does not have any sixth-year seniors, so Dorrell can't say he's still playing with Toledo's recruits. ;)

The bet, 2007 edition

By Brendan Loy

Two years ago, Mike Tran and I made a friendly bet on the USC-UCLA game, which, thanks to USC's 66-19 win, resulted in Mike becoming a Trojan for a day.

Last year, we made another bet, and needless to say, things didn't go quite as well for me. The Trojans lost 13-9, so I had to wear Mike's UCLA jersey to our Professional Responsibility class, and publish a blog post about "Why UCLA is superior to USC." The latter was particularly galling because, as a rule, I like to be truthful and accurate in what I post on the blog. Posting such blatant lies was borderline unethical. ;)

Mike and I have made other friendly bets over the last two years on games of peripheral interest (USC-ND, ND-UCLA, UCLA-Gonzaga), most recently resulting in me officially owning him, but it's when our undergrad alma maters meet that the stakes are highest -- and in those contests, we're each 1-1. Tomorrow, though, somebody will break the tie.

Here are the terms: If USC wins, Mike has to buy a USC car flag, and must put it (and keep it) on his car December 31 and January 1. So he'll be driving around L.A. flying Trojan colors on the day before, and the day of, the Rose Bowl... muahahaha. He also has to get a picture, well in advance, of himself with the flag-adorned car, and send me a copy of said picture, so that I can set it to post automatically on the blog on January 1 (in case I'm in the hospital that day, which is a distinct possibility). Oh, and when he's done with the flag, he has to send it to me, and I get to keep it.

If UCLA wins, I have to do much the same thing, but for a longer period of time -- that's our way of dealing with the odds, because USC is favored by 20 points, but we're betting straight-up on the game. So if the Bruins are victorious, I have to buy a UCLA car flag and keep it on my car for seven days: to and from work on five weekdays and all day long on two weekend/holiday days. And I have to post a different picture of it on the blog (presumably via cell phone) every single day. (Ugh... that would be a nightmare, because I probably won't be blogging much in late December and early January, so the homepage would most likely be dominated by pictures of the UCLA flag.)

If UCLA plays in the Rose Bowl, New Year's Day must be one of the weekend/holiday days, unless we spend that day at the hospital. My end of the bargain is more flexible about the dates than his because of the uncertain timing of the baby's arrival. (Obviously, Mike doesn't want me to get credit for leaving the flag on the car while it's parked at the hospital for 48+ hours, out of sight and out of mind.) But I have to do it at some point during bowl season. And, again, when I'm done with the flag, I have to send it to Mike, and he keeps it.

So there you have it. If USC loses, I'm sending Pete Carroll my therapy bills for the humiliation I'll suffer from driving around town looking like a bandwagon fUCLA fan. Ugh. FIGHT ON TROJANS, BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

Turner Gill named MAC's top coach

By Brendan Loy

University at Buffalo head football coach Turner Gill, who was interviewed on Monday for the Nebraska job, has in the mean time been named MAC coach of the year for guiding the historically hapless Bulls to their best Division I-A season ever, with a record of 5-7. Which, incidentally, is identical to Nebraska's record this season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming before the season started.

UPDATE: In a development that should surprise no one, ESPN is reporting that "Nebraska has narrowed its search to two candidates: Turner Gill, head coach at Buffalo, and Bo Pelini, the defensive coordinator at LSU." Those two have been considered the front-runners all along.

Pelini! Pick Pelini!

UPDATE 2: Mum's the word:

As the University at Buffalo football team was being honored at halftime of Thursday’s basketball game against Tulane, the Bulls’ student section made their feelings clear about Turner Gill.

“Turner stay, Turner stay!” they chanted. “Turner stay!”

Afterward, the only thing Gill wanted to discuss was UB football, not the possibility of becoming the next coach at Nebraska. Gill, a front-runner for the job almost from the time Tom Osborne became the interim athletics director at the school, declined comment on anything Cornhuskers related Thursday.

“Unable to comment,” Gill said. “That’s all I can say.”

Also Thursday, Osborne declared himself the interim coach until he hires a successor to Bill Callahan, allowing Nebraska’s beloved former coach to visit prospective recruits and try to prevent the program from slipping during the recruiting contact period. Osborne said he hoped to have a new coach by next week.

Gill, who according to sources met with Nebraska officials Monday, was also asked if he had been contacted by other schools, and also declined comment. Gill’s name has surfaced for openings at Washington State as well as Duke. He said he remains committed to coaching at UB.

The basketball team beat Tulane, by the way.

USC to leave Coliseum, play at Rose Bowl?!

By Brendan Loy

USC says it may move its home games from the Coliseum to the Rose Bowl starting next season, due to a breakdown in negotiations with Coliseum management. Scott Wolf says this announcement, particularly in light of its timing the week before the UCLA game, "really smells like a negotiating ploy by USC to pressure the Coliseum into agreeing to its demands," which Wolf suspects involve not just "improvements" but "revenue-sharing plans (like luxury suites)." Here's how USC's top lawyer, senior vice president for administration Todd Dickey, characterizes the university's demands:

"Our first choice is to play at the Coliseum. However, the Coliseum needs some significant improvements. The sound system is barely audible, the video system is failing, the bathrooms need upgrades, the entrances, the seats, the lighting, just about everything needs work."

Dickey says USC "has offered to make those improvements," but the university doesn't want to "just to hand the money over to the Coliseum Commission" -- it wants to "actually operate the facility." That, naturally, is the sticking point. The quasi-public Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Commission doesn't want to hand over the keys of the kingdom to those high-falutin' University of Spoiled Children snobs. [/sarcasm] The L.A. Times opines: "some political observers have suggested that commissioners would like to avoid making themselves superfluous." You think?

The Rose Bowl is a neat and historic venue (of course, so is the Coliseum!), and this would be a return to tradition of the Trojans and Bruins sharing the same home stadium (the Bruins were at the Coliseum from 1928 through 1981), and perhaps both wearing their home jerseys when they square off each season. But it would stink for USC students. The walk to the nearby Coliseum -- kicking that flagpole for good luck on the way, and then walking past the rose garden, and past the local Mexican food vendors selling churros and such -- is a memorable aspect of football Saturdays at 'SC. Braving traffic on the 110 to Pasadena would be far less romantic, and far more inconvenient.

And of course, it would stink for the L.A. economy, too, from hotels and restaurants on down to those food vendors I mentioned, not to mention the locals who charge obscene prices for parking near the stadium. As a result, Mayor Villaraigosa is raising a ruckus, pontifficating about how he is "absolutely committed" to maintaining the status quo: "USC football is one of the most important economic engines in South Los Angeles and the Mayor has no interest in seeing those jobs leave for Pasadena." I'm not sure whether the Mayor's "interests" matter for present purposes, except perhaps to get the Trojans some bad press from Telemundo, but I suppose he might be able to pressure the Coliseum Commission to make USC happy. [UPDATE: Boi From Troy, who, as an Angeleno, has far better knowledge than I of the strange quasi-governmental structures they have out there, points out that Mayor Villaraigosa "matters because he directly appoints 2 of 9 Coliseum Commission members." Well then! I stand corrected. But my error was totally worth it for the Mirthala Salinas joke.]

In any event, Pete Carroll isn't concerned about a possible move to the Rose Bowl. "It's kind of been our second home since we've been here," he says. Heh. Indeed.

Some players, however, aren't taking the news so well. The Coliseum is "my home," said linebacker Keith Rivers. "I wouldn't want to change that." Added offensive linesman Jeff Byers: "[You can take our lives but] you can't take away the Coliseum. [I AM WILLIAM WALLACE!!]"

I'll just say this. If, heaven forbid, USC loses to UCLA on Saturday, it almost certainly won't be because the players were distracted by this news. But no one will be able to prove that that wasn't a contributing factor, and as a result, people will talk about it, and they'll wonder, and they'll gripe. The university will take a lot of heat for its ridiculously poor (well-calculated, no doubt, but in the grand scheme of things, poor) timing here. And rightfully so.

Of course, there's a simple way to avoid that problem: BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

P.S. On the bright side, a move to the Rose Bowl would mean USC students wouldn't have to deal with being physically assaulted by Coliseum rent-a-cops.

P.P.S. Also, a doubleheader at the Rose Bowl next November 8 -- Oregon State @ UCLA, then Cal @ USC -- would be way fun. Er, except for the hellacious traffic, that is.

It's Nutt-y in Oxford

By Jay Johnson

Ole Miss has hired Houston Nutt to take over the head coaching duties for the nightmarishly bad Rebels football team.

Bowling for mediocrity

By Brendan Loy

Out of curiosity, is anyone excited about any of these projected bowl matchups?

I mean, not that Rutgers vs. Ball State in Toronto won't be awesome... not that a UCLA-BYU rematch in the Las Vegas Bowl wouldn't be thrilling... but it does sort of seem like the craziest college-football season in the history of mankind has left us with, at least on paper, a somewhat lackluster postseason. Of course, what's "on paper" means nothing this year, right? But still.

Personally, if all of Mandel's bowl predictions were to prove correct, here are the Top 5 games I'd be most interested in watching:

Continue reading "Bowling for mediocrity" »

Coaching carousel update

By Brendan Loy

Washington State's Bill Doba: fired.

Georgia Tech's Chan Gailey: fired.

Duke's Ted Roof: fired.

Southern Miss's Jeff Bower: fired.

And finally, Arkansas's Houston Nutt: inexplicably offered a new contract, which he inexplicably turned down, possibly to go to Ole Miss.

P.S. Oh, and Syracuse's Greg Robinson may be next.

UCLA's Karl Dorrell will, of course, have a job for at least five days. I wonder: if the Bruins somehow beat USC and go to the Rose Bowl, will they still fire Dorrell? And if so, will he be the first coach ever to be fired immediately after leading his team to the Rose Bowl? Heh.

UPDATE: ESPN.com has created an incredibly helpful coaching carousel page with a list of all the departing coaches and (eventually) their successors. Cool.

Gig 'em, I guess.

By Jay Johnson

After the monumental failure with the hire of Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M backs up excellent decision making with the hiring of a failed NFL head coach that couldn't get a Brett Favre led team to the Super Bowl in the then-pathetic NFC.

Mike Sherman?  Really?

Way to go Aggies! (False exuberance here.  I see nothing in this hire for anyone at TAMU to be excited about.  This is as lackluster of a hire as could be imagined.)

BYU to the BCS?

By Brendan Loy

BCS analyst extraordinare Jerry Palm confirms what I said yesterday: don't sleep on BYU. (Don't sleep with them, either, unless you're married to them. They're very moral!) The Mormons Cougars could end up in the BCS, if they beat San Diego State on Saturday and everything falls their way:

"It looks like BYU has a chance if the following teams lose: USC, Hawaii, Arizona State and two of [the following] - Tennessee, Oregon and Boston College," said Palm, who operates collegebcs.com. "Even then, it's not guaranteed. Better still if all six lose, and BC losing is the least helpful."

If a two-loss team from a mid-major conference qualifies for the BCS, that would be, well, a perfect ending to this craziest of college-football seasons.

Er, well, "perfect" except in the sense that it would involve USC losing to UCLA. Which is to say, not perfect at all. So nevermind.

Nebraska to interview UB's Turner Gill

By Brendan Loy

Is this the beginning of the end for Turner Gill at Buffalo? UB's athletic director has given Nebraska permission to talk to Gill about its head-coaching vacancy. "I'm happy for Turner and his family about getting the opportunity to talk to Nebraska," AD Warde Manuel said. "He's worked extremely hard and deserves this opportunity."

According to the Lincoln Journal-Star, Manuel said the interview will take place "in the next day or so." He added, "I think it's tremendous. Turner is absolutely ready to coach at Nebraska. He's done a great job, an awesome turnaround. Although I would hate to lose him, he would be a great coach there." Earlier, Manuel was quoted as saying, "I don't want him to leave our program. Obviously, I don't. But without a doubt, Turner Gill, if he can do what he’s done here in two years, there's nobody there in Nebraska that could tell me that he's not deserving of a serious, serious look at being the head coach of Nebraska."

It certainly doesn't sound like UB is jumping through hoops to try to keep him around. (Not like they could anyway, really. It's not like they can even pretend to try and match Nebraska dollar for dollar.) And in light of Gill mentor Tom Osborne's comments about the new Huskers coach needing to understand Nebraska's tradition, this is starting to sound like a slam dunk.

If Gill's tenure at Buffalo is over, he certainly went out in style. Buffalo won in overtime at Kent State on Saturday to finish 5-7 -- easily the best season in Buffalo's nine-year Division I-A history. More here and here.

Must. Beat. UCLA.

By Brendan Loy

With one game to go, the UCLA Bruins could still go to the Rose Bowl -- or no bowl at all. It's up to the USC Trojans to make sure it's the latter. Stewart Mandel explains:

Of all the strange postseason scenarios still floating around, I don't think you possibly find one any more bizarre than the fact that the Bruins, who just reached bowl eligibility this weekend, are still technically alive for the Rose Bowl.

Here's the deal: USC (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10) and Arizona State (9-2, 6-2) are currently tied for first in the Pac-10 standings, with the Trojans holding the tiebreaker following last Thursday's win. Oregon (8-3, 5-3) and UCLA (6-5, 5-3) sit a game behind following the Bruins' 16-0 win over the quarterback-depleted Ducks. If surging Arizona (5-6) upends the Sun Devils (not implausible) and Karl Dorrell's Bruins pull another crosstown upset of the Trojans (highly unlikely), it would create either a three-way tie for first between USC, ASU and UCLA, all of which went 1-1 against each other, or a four-way tie with Oregon. In either case, the Bruins win the tiebreaker due to their victory over the Ducks. (If you dare to figure out how that is, read this).

The craziest part of all is, just as easily as the 6-5 Bruins could go to the Rose Bowl, they could also go to no bowl at all if they lose. If Arizona does beat ASU, it would give the Pac-10 seven bowl-eligible teams for six spots and almost assuredly restrict them to one BCS berth. Guess which would be the odd team out in that scenario? Yep -- the same team that's playing for a Rose Bowl berth next week.

USC needs to beat UCLA not just on general principle, not just for pride, not just for revenge, not just for the Roses, not just so I can win another bet against Mike Tran, but for the good of the whole conference. If the Bruins, who lost to Notre Dame and Utah, and who have done nothing in conference play to merit any sort of respect (no, shutting out an Oregon team playing its 26th-string quarterback doesn't count), go to the Rose Bowl, the Pac-10 will be the laughingstock of the country.

So Trojans, for the love of God, beat the Bruins.

P.S. A minor correction to Mandel's analysis after the jump.

Continue reading "Must. Beat. UCLA." »

Hawaii ranked #12 in BCS

By Brendan Loy

With one week to go in the college-football regular season, Hawaii is finally right where they want to be: #12 in the BCS standings. So, beat Washington and they're BCS-bound, right?

Well, probably. The fly in the ointment is #14 Tennessee. If the Vols beat LSU, they would almost certainly leapfrog Hawaii. It's also possible that #13 Arizona State could jump Hawaii with a win over Arizona, especially if the Warriors win less-than-impressively over the 4-8 Huskies. The Warriors and Sun Devils are really close in the standings at this point.

If Tennessee and/or ASU leapfrogs Hawaii, the Warriors will need somebody (or somebodies) currently ahead of them to fall behind them. #7 LSU might fit the bill, though I'm not sure how far they'd tumble with a loss to UT. Probably just far enough, is my guess. Also, somebody's gotta lose the ACC title game between #6 Virginia Tech and #11 Boston College; BC would certainly fall behind Hawaii with a loss, while VT might or might not. Other possibilities would be Missouri beating #9 Oklahoma and (heaven forbid) UCLA beating #8 USC. The latter scenario could help Hawaii in two ways: by allowing them to jump USC, and by potentially putting them ahead of the Pac-10 champion. If UCLA beats USC and ASU beats Arizona, the Sun Devils would be the conference champions, and it'd be a close call between them and Hawaii. If UCLA and Arizona both win, the Bruins would be the champ (at 7-5 overall...ugh), and would certainly be ranked below Hawaii in the BCS.

Bottom line, if Hawaii beats Washington, the Warriors are probably 90% likely to reach the Sugar Bowl, where they'll play either LSU (if the Tigers beat Tennessee but don't sneak into the title game), Tennessee (if the Vols beat LSU), or Georgia (if LSU beats UT and makes it into the title game). With UConn out of the picture, the Warriors have essentially 0% of going to any other BCS bowl, as all of the other at-large teams will be more attractive to the bowls, and the Sugar Bowl picks last.

P.S. Don't sleep on #19 BYU. If Washington beats Hawaii, UCLA beats USC, Arizona beats ASU, Oregon State beats Oregon, and LSU beats Tennessee, the Cougars would probably be ranked #15 or #16, and ahead of Pac-10 champion UCLA. So the Sugar Bowl would be LSU (or Georgia) against BYU!

Eight teams still alive for BCS title

By Brendan Loy

Missouri is #1 in the new AP poll by a margin of 45 first-place votes to 20, but West Virginia is #1 in the new coaches poll by a margin of 37 to 17 (with 6 first-place votes for Ohio State).

Of course, it doesn't matter who's #1 and who's #2. If the Tigers and Mountaineers both win on Saturday, they'll go to the BCS title game, and they'll decide on the field who deserves to be #1. More significant is who comes after #3 Ohio State in the coaches' poll, since those teams would fighting over the #2 spot in the BCS if Missouri and WVU were to both lose on Saturday.

It goes like this: #4 Georgia (1,232 points), #5 (tied) Kansas (1,161 points), #5 (tied) Virginia Tech (1,161 points), #7 LSU (1,134 points), #8 Oklahoma (1,126 points), #9 USC (1,073 points) and #10 Hawaii (958 points). I have to say, I'm surprised Kansas is still ranked that high; I didn't think the Jayhawks would be in the mix anymore, but they are. Texasyank was right: they could pull a Nebraska, a la 2001. (Though I still doubt it would actually happen.)

Anyway, it would be a hell of an argument among the teams currently ranked #4 through #8 if Mizzou and WVU lose:

• Georgia could claim it's playing the best football right now, but others would point out that they didn't even win their division, a la Nebraska in 2001. And if LSU beats Tennessee, how do you keep out the two-loss conference champion in favor of a two-loss divisional runner-up (that, oh by the way, lost 35-14 to the Vols)? The only reason to favor the Bulldogs over the Tigers is because they lost earlier than LSU did. But is that really a good reason? Also, Georgia has one of the worst losses of the group (at home to a .500 team, South Carolina... if anyone remembers September 8 at this point).

• Kansas could point out that everyone else has two losses, while they only have one. But they, too, have the "didn't win their division" problem, plus they started 11-0 against a very weak schedule and then lost against the first real quality opponent they played. The Jayhawks are in prime position to be leapfrogged.

• Outside of the Top 3, Virginia Tech is the highest-ranked team right now that could potentially win its conference. But can the voters possibly keep the Hokies ahead of LSU, if the Tigers win the SEC, when VT lost 48-7 to LSU back in September? I think VT must hope for Tennessee to beat LSU to have any shot.

• LSU has the 48-7 trump card over Virginia Tech, and the SEC trump card ("champion of the toughest conference in America") over everyone else if they beat Tennessee. But they also suffered a late, high-profile loss, which pollsters hate. If LSU wins, will the voters follow the Kreutz Theorem and leapfrog them ahead of all the non-SEC two-loss teams (and Kansas), or will they continue to punish the Tigers for losing late? LSU needs to root for Virginia Tech to win the ACC, because having that 48-7 win at the forefront of everyone's minds is obviously good for their cause. Other LSU talking points: they played the toughest schedule of the group, and both of their losses were in triple-overtime. Rebuttal: yeah, but a lot of their wins were really close, too. Surrebuttal: well of course they were, because they played the toughest schedule of the group! And the SEC is a war!

• Oklahoma is currently ranked last among the teams seriously competing to take advantage if the Top 2 falter, but they have two advantages: they can make one of those top two falter, by beating Missouri; and in so doing, they can score the highest-profile "quality win" of everyone in the group. On the flip side, like Georgia, they lost to a 6-6 team (Colorado).

I don't think anyone else would really be considered. USC just doesn't have enough of a case to pass Oklahoma or Georgia, even if everybody else loses. Hawaii, right or wrong, is not going to be seriously considered for the #2 spot by the pollsters or the computers, under any circumstances. West Virginia and Missouri won't be able to sneak in the back door after a loss; there are too many other available two-loss contenders. And Boston College, at #12, has too high of a hill to climb, even if the Eagles beat VT.

Personally, I think LSU would be the most deserving if WVU and Mizzou lose and all the two-loss teams win, but that opinion is subject to change depending on how the teams in question look on Saturday.

P.S. Man, wouldn't an eight-team playoff be a great way to settle all this? Just saying!

UPDATE: Rich Tellshow thinks USC will finish ahead of Kansas and Oklahoma if they beat UCLA, and that it could come down to the Trojans vs. the Bulldogs for the #2 spot if Missouri, West Virginia, LSU and Virginia Tech all lose:

If [Mizzou and WVU lose] then LSU could be back with win over UT, with an LSU loss VT would have a claim if they win the ACC, and UGA or USC possibly if LSU and VT lose. I think Kansas is done and OU's computer component will keep them out.

UPDATE 2: Jerry Palm thinks USC has no chance. I tend to agree.

Missouri dominating Kansas

By Brendan Loy

So far, it's all Chase Daniel & co., and Kirk Herbstreit has already described Kansas as being "exposed." Maybe those cupcakes didn't serve their purpose? Anyway, they're just starting the second half, and it's 14-0 Mizzou.

Earlier, West Virginia gave UConn a good old-fashioned whoopin', 66-21. D'oh! So now WVU is a win over Pitt away from the BCS title game. Now, Pitt isn't very good, but do you think they'll be a little motivated to play their "Backyard Brawl" rivals with a chance to derail their title hopes? Remember what happened to USC against UCLA last year, Mountaineers, and be careful: that could be you. (In which case, hello, Ohio State!)

Also, fUCLA shut out Oregon, which means that if they now turn around and lose to USC next week, the Trojans will be Rose Bowl-bound. Thanks, Bruins!! ... Oregon's loss is also good news for Hawaii, as the Ducks will presumably join Texas in dropping behind the Warriors in the BCS standings. (And frankly, if Kansas keeps looking this bad, they might take enough of a plunge in the polls to fall behind Hawaii as well, especially given the weakness of Kansas's prior schedule, which is almost Hawaii-esque.)

Speaking of USC, wins by Georgia and Oklahoma mean the Trojans' slim national-title hopes are probably dashed. I don't think a two-loss USC would finish ahead of the two-loss Bulldogs or Sooners.

P.S. With regard to Hawaii, assuming Kansas stays ahead of them, I think the two major questions are: 1) will Arizona State stay ahead of them? And 2) will Tennessee leapfrog them? If the answer is "no" to both, I see the Warriors at #12 next week, going into their finale against Washington (unless Hawaii can leapfrog someone based on their performance against Boise State).

Meanwhile, the best hopes for a conference champion to finish ahead of, if the Warriors need it (i.e., if they're between #13 and #16), now come from the Pac-10 (if USC loses to UCLA, triggering bizarre tiebreakers extraordinaire) and, of all places, the SEC (if Tennessee beats LSU and doesn't leapfrog Hawaii). The Big 12 and ACC are now guaranteed to have their champions finish in the Top 14, along with the Big Ten and almost certainly the Big East (even if they lose to Pitt, I don't think West Virginia would fall that far).

UPDATE: Kansas rallied valiantly from a 28-7 third-quarter deficit, but Missouri won 36-28. So it's now Missouri and West Virginia in the driver's seat for the national-championship game, with Ohio State waiting in the wings if either of them falter next week, and mass chaos if both falter. (Ohio State vs. ... Georgia? LSU? Oklahoma? USC? Boston College? Virginia Tech? Kansas?? Hawaii???)

Terrail Lambert decapitates Tavita Pritchard

By Brendan Loy

Horrible. Another illegal helmet-to-helmet hit against a quarterback goes uncalled. What the f*** is wrong with these referees? And with college-football referees generally? Good grief.

P.S. Um, but anyway, Go Irish, Beat Farm. It's 14-14, late in the third. Speaking of refs, apparently there was an awful call that robbed ND of a touchdown earlier, though I missed it.

UPDATE: Irish win!

So it's 3-9. Remember "9-3 is not good enough"? ... Still, it could have been worse. Like 2-10.

Ah, well. Next year.

UPDATE 2: Reading this over, I realized it sorta sounds like I'm saying, sarcastically, "Ah, well. Maybe the Irish will got 2-10 next year." That wasn't my intention. I meant "Next year hopefully they'll be better."

Tennessee, Kentucky in triple quadruple OT

By Brendan Loy

It looked like the Wildcats were going to win for sure in the second OT after they intercepted Eric Ainge and just needed a FG to win, but then Tennessee blocked the kick... and looked for a moment like they might run it back for a touchdown, until Kentucky stopped the run by committing what looked like a facemask against the ball-carrier, which was not a penalty "by rule" because Tennessee was on defense in overtime (so I guess a Kentucky player could have pulled out a gun and shot the UT player with the ball, and it would be okay).

Anyway... the SEC really is kind of a war, isn't it?

UPDATE: Tennessee wins! 52-50 in 4OT, and the Vols are SEC East champs! They'll play LSU in the conference championship game in Atlanta.

Go Irish, Beat the Farm!

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame has a 7-0 lead over Stanford early. BEAT THE DRUNKEN TREES!!!

Meanwhile, in Morgantown, UConn took an early 7-0 lead over West Virginia, but the Mountaineers have rallied and are up 14-7 with 4:14 left in the first quarter. WVU's second touchdown came after a devastating UConn fumble on a punt return deep in their own territory. The Huskies' success this season has been based largely on an excellent turnover margin, and now is definitely not the time to stop taking care of the football, with a BCS berth on the line.

Incidentally, the biggest UConn fans in the country right now are in Columbus, Ohio, as a West Virginia loss would send Ohio State to the national championship game (unless a two-loss SEC champion could leapfrog one-loss Ohio State). In addition, a UConn victory would mean that Hawaii, if they get BCS-eligible, would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl rather than the Sugar Bowl. (The Sugar Bowl picks last, the Fiesta Bowl second-to-last, and I imagine the folks in Glendale would prefer Hawaii to UConn if those were their only two options.)

P.S. Tennessee is beating Kentucky, 31-14. Win, and the Vols clinch the SEC East -- and eliminate Georgia from the SEC race, and hurt the slim national-title hopes of both LSU and Georgia, but virtually guarantee Georgia a BCS at-large berth (if the Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech).

Also, Oklahoma is up 14-7 over Oklahoma State at the end of the first. A Sooner victory would largely eliminate the various truly wild BCS title-game scenarios, since the Big 12 would be guaranteed to produce a highly ranked champion. A hypothetical two-loss, Big 12 champion Oklahoma would represent the "floor" for BCS scenarios; anyone who can't finish the season ranked ahead of them would be eliminated. (Whether that would totally eliminate USC, I'm not entirely sure. The computers don't much like Oklahoma.)

Coaching carousel speeds up

By Brendan Loy

Nebraska coach Bill Callahan has been fired, and Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron, a former USC assistant, reportedly will be fired momentarily. All this after Texas A&M's Dennis Franchione resigned yesterday.

Warriors, Broncos battle for WAC & BCS

By Brendan Loy

Hawaii and Boise State are underway in their much-hyped battle for the WAC title and a possible BCS berth. It's 13-7 Hawaii early in the second quarter. (Boise blocked the PAT after the Warriors' second touchdown.)

UPDATE: Very entertaining game so far. Boise State has scored 10 unanswered points, and leads 27-26 with 6:52 left in the third quarter.

UPDATE 2: Now it's 39-27 Hawaii heading into the fourth quarter.

Unlike the Broncos, the undefeated Warriors, if they win tonight and beat Washington next weekend, have a real shot at finishing in the Top 12 and qualifying automatically for a BCS bowl -- now likely the Sugar Bowl against LSU! -- without the need to finish ahead of a big-conference champ or squeeze in because of a glut of SEC and Big 12 teams in the Top 14. And to that end, Texas's loss to Texas A&M earlier today is very helpful.

UPDATE 3: Hawaii 39, Boise State 27, final. The Warriors are WAC champions, and they're 11-0 with Washington coming to town next week.

#1 LSU in trouble loses!

By Brendan Loy

Arkansas leads LSU, 14-6, with 9:40 left in the third quarter. Darren McFadden just rushed 73 yards for a touchdown; he has 151 yards on 17 carries today, making him the first 100-yard rusher against the Tigers this season.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is leading Texas 10-0. A loss by the Longhorns would eliminate the juicy possibility of a USC-Texas Fiesta Bowl, but on the bright side, it would boost the Trojans' extremely slim national-title hopes. (Oklahoma would then need to lose to Oklahoma State tomorrow, but win the Big 12 title game next Saturday. And lots of other teams would need to lose, specifically LSU, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech and Oregon. It also wouldn't hurt if Boston College loses to Miami but then wins the ACC title game... and if LSU loses twice. If all of the above happens, and the Trojans beat the Bruins, that would leave two-loss USC, possibly two-loss UConn, one-loss non-conference-champ Kansas, and perhaps undefeated WAC champ Hawaii arguing over who gets to play Ohio State in New Orleans, and I think the Trojans would win the argument.)

UPDATE: Arkansas wins!! Final score: 50-48 in triple OT.

I had a feeling LSU was going to lose, either today or in the SEC title game. As I wrote last night, it was foolish for anyone analyzing the BCS to just assume the Tigers would win out, as had seemingly become the norm. LSU has been living on the edge all season, and as I put it last week, "I think the Tigers are a bit like Hillary Clinton: they've been at or near the top of the polls for long enough that they are starting to feel inevitable, but they haven't actually done anything to establish that they're head-and-shoulders above everyone else." Tonight, they were brought back down to earth.

That said, don't believe anyone who says "LSU's title hopes are dead." They're not. All the Tigers need is for West Virginia to lose (to UConn tomorrow or to Pitt next Saturday) and Oklahoma to win the Big 12, and they'll be right back in the hunt.

If Kentucky beats Tennessee tomorrow and Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the SEC title game next Saturday would feature the nation's two highest-ranked two-loss teams, LSU and Georgia... and if UConn upsets WVU tomorrow, the two-loss SEC champ would only need Oklahoma to beat Kansas or Missouri to potentially earn a trip to New Orleans to play Ohio State. That scenario would create a debate between Oklahoma and the LSU-Georgia winner, and perhaps USC and Virginia Tech if they win out and win their conference titles, and one-loss, non-champion Kansas. But I think the SEC champ would get the better of the argument, in part because of the Kreutz Theorem ("when [pollsters] rank SEC teams, they automatically subtract a loss from their record") and in part because, well, the SEC champ honestly would probably be the best choice in that situation, unless you want to make an argument for undefeated Hawaii. Particularly if the champ is LSU, they'll be able to say: 1) they won the nation's toughest conference, and 2) their two losses both came in triple-overtime. That's a more compelling case than any of the others would be able to make. So I think LSU is still effectively fourth in the BCS pecking order, behind the winner of tomorrow's Kansas-Missouri game (#1), West Virginia (#2) and Ohio State (#3).

P.S. Oh, and also, Texas lost! Woohoo!!

Beat the Sun Devils!

By Brendan Loy

"It's motherf---in' game day. We're the motherf---in' Trojans."

Fight on USC! Beat ASU!

UPDATE: Trojans lead 17-7 with 3:44 to go in the first quarter.

Ridiculous unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty against Sedrick Ellis just now. The NCAA really needs to reign in the trend among referees to try and take all the emotion out of college football with bulls**t calls like that. It happened to Notre Dame's John Carlson against Duke last week (details here), and this one was equally absurd. Good lord, football is exciting, the players get emotional sometimes, and they celebrate. Big freakin' deal. Unless they're jawing in the opposing players' faces or something, it shouldn't be a penalty. Let them play, you a**holes.

Also, the BCS "analysis" by the ESPN announcing crew and Charles Barkley was insipid. Anyone who thinks it's even a question whether ASU will be "in the conversation" if they win out suffers from a failure of imagination and foresight. In this of all seasons, can't these people wrap their minds around the reality that the landscape changes from week to week, and of course the Sun Devils will be "in the conversation" if they win out? Also, why does everyone just assume that LSU is going to win out?!? LSU has two tough games left, and no one can take anything for granted this season. All the talk is about Kansas/Missouri and West Virginia fighting for the last spot. People, they might both get in. Or they could both lose, along with LSU, and the title game could be Ohio State vs. Arizona State. Or Ohio State vs. Georgia. Or Ohio State vs. USC (!). Lots of crazy things are still possible. It's just plain stupid to look at the current BCS standings and assume nothing will change.

UPDATE 2: It's 27-17 USC at halftime.

UPDATE 3: WOOOOOO!!!! 44-17, late in the third quarter.

I think it's safe to say "Beat the Bruins" with this playing of Conquest. :)

UPDATE 4: Okay, I know the game is over, but how the hell is it "unsportsmanlike conduct" for Sedrick Ellis to briefly and unobtrusively celebrate a sack, but Rudy Carpenter can get in the referee's face about a call, yelling and screaming at him like a second-grader throwing a temper tantrum, and not get flagged? These refs are HORRIBLE.

UPDATE 5: Trojans win, 44-24. Pete Carroll is 23-0 in November.

BEAT THE BRUINS!!!!

P.S. All this talk about USC needing Oregon to lose to reach the Rose Bowl sort of misses the point, in a certain sense. If USC beats UCLA next weekend, they will go to a BCS bowl. The only question is which one: Rose or Fiesta? Frankly, I actually prefer the potential Fiesta Bowl matchup with Texas to a Rose Bowl pre-match with Ohio State, the Trojans' second opponent next season. But regardless, while USC may not control its own Rose Bowl destiny, it does control its own BCS destiny, as a practical matter. I don't think I heard anyone on ESPN mention that all night.

Notre Dame ranked #1 in football!

By Brendan Loy

Well, sort of. (Hat tip: BK.)

P.S. Heh.

CFB road-tripper arrested in Texas

By Brendan Loy

Remember Jonathan Tu, the USC fan and blogger on a cross-country, stadium-by-stadium college-football tour, who Jay and I met up with for the Tennessee-Arkansas game 10 days ago? Well, he got arrested in College Station, Texas on Monday, trying to sneak into Texas A&M's Kyle Field. I kid you not.


Left: Jon in Tennessee. Right: Jon in Texas.

Well, hey, it'll make for an interesting chapter in his book.

25 years ago today...

By Brendan Loy

...this happened:

Longer clip (without background music, and without helpful camera-zoom enhancement) here.

You can read stories about the 25th anniversary here, here and here.

Nick Saban is not at all hyperbolic

By Brendan Loy

Taking a page out of Andrew's playbook, Alabama coach Nick Saban attempted to motivate his team Monday by comparing the Crimson Tide's loss to Louisiana-Lafayette with 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. Heh.

But what would that make Michigan's loss to Appalachian State? Antietam?

P.S. Holocaust-tastic!

P.P.S. I don't know what everyone is so upset about. We all already knew that SEC football is a war! :)

Beginning of the end

By David K.

Michigan coach Lloyd Carr will announce his retirement Monday after 13 seasons at the helm of the Wolverines. Carr had early success, including a 1997 National Championship and a 5-1 record against rival Ohio State through 2000, but in recent years the Maize and Blue have struggled, dropping four straight to the Buckeyes for the first time ever and becoming the first ranked team ever to lose to a I-AA opponent.

Speculation is that LSU coach Les Miles, a former Bo Schembechler player, would be the top choice to replace Carr, but a clause in his contract with the Tigers would cost him $1.5 million for fleeing to Ann Arbor. In addition, there are rumors that Carr, who still carries a significant amount of influence, is not favorable towards Miles.

Continue reading "Beginning of the end" »

Don't look now, but...

By Brendan Loy

...it's Texas Tech 27, Oklahoma 7 with 9:18 left in the second quarter, and OU's starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, is out of the game. Shades of Oregon/Dixon?

An upset by the Red Raiders would be great news for West Virginia, Ohio State and Arizona State, as they could then root for the Big 12 South champ -- be it Oklahoma or Texas -- to beat next week's Kansas-Missouri winner in the conference championship game, thus taking the Big 12 out of the BCS title picture entirely. (Sorry, Kansas, but a one-loss Jayhawks squad would be behind all the other one-loss teams in the pecking order, and possibly also two-loss Georgia, Virginia Tech and USC.)

UPDATE: I'm glad OU is going to lose, but how was that not a touchdown?

UPDATE 2: Texas Tech wins, 34-27. They are the eleventh unranked team to knock off a Top 5 team this season!

Next week: #2 Kansas vs. #3 Missouri! In football! LOL!

P.S. For those keeping track at home, here's an update on USC's slim national-championship hopes.

Continue reading "Don't look now, but..." »

College football: around the country

By Brendan Loy

First things first: Notre Dame 28, Duke 7, final. WOOO!!!! Finally, a home win for the Irish!!!

Meanwhile, here in Knoxville, the Tennessee Volunteers rallied from 15 points down in the fourth quarter to edge in-state rival Vanderbilt, 25-24, and retain control of the SEC East. If the Vols win at Kentucky next week, they'll take on LSU in Atlanta for the SEC championship. If Kentucky wins, the title game will be LSU vs. Georgia instead. (Georgia beat Kentucky today, 24-13.) No offense to the Vols, but given the way the Bulldogs have been playing, I think the Tigers (who beat Ole Miss 41-24 to defend their #1 ranking) will be rooting for Tennessee next week.

In the Big East, UConn's 30-7 romp of Syracuse, combined with Rutgers's 20-16 win over Pitt, guaranteed that next week's West Virginia-UConn game will decide the conference title. The only question remaining is who it'll be deciding between. If West Virginia beats Cincinnati tonight, the Mountaineers and Huskies will play a de facto championship game, with the winner going to the BCS. It would be the second straight year WVU has hosted such a game (they beat Rutgers last year). [CORRECTION: The previous sentence is wrong. WVU did host Rutgers in last year's finale, but by winning, the Mountaineers delivered the Big East championship to Louisville.] If, on the other hand, Cincy pulls the upset tonight, West Virginia will be the Bearcats' proxy warrior next week; a WVU win in that circumstance would mean a Cincinnati title. Either way, UConn is one road win away from an utterly improbable trip to either the Orange or Sugar Bowl. Unfortunately, the Huskies haven't won a road game of any significance all year.

Out in the Big 12, Kansas and Missouri survived the upset bug that has bitten many teams before "showdown" games this year -- think Florida the week before the LSU game, Texas and Oklahoma the week before the Red River Shootout, Ohio State and Michigan last week -- as both won easily today, 45-7 over Iowa State and 49-32 over Kansas State, respectively. So now the archrival Jayhawks and Tigers, neither of whom have won a Big 12 North title in football before, will meet next Saturday for all the marbles. Winner gets Oklahoma in the conference title game a week later, assuming Oklahoma takes care of business in the mean time. (The Sooners can clinch the Big 12 South with a win at Texas Tech tonight. But watch out -- Oklahoma isn't technically ranked #2 yet, but they know they'll be #2 in the new rankings if they win, so that might be enough for the #2 curse to strike!)

As for the Big Ten, Ohio State is once again the champion after beating Michigan 14-3. The Buckeyes will go to the Rose Bowl barring a series of upsets that lands them in the championship game, which could happen -- though I think Arizona State is probably ahead of them in the pecking order, and so, I suspect, is Georgia, despite the Bulldogs' two losses, if Tennessee loses next week, Georgia wins, and then beats LSU for the SEC title. ... Also in the Big Ten, Illinois won over Northwestern, staking their claim on a possible BCS at-large bid. If there are enough upsets above them, the Illini may be able to sneak into the Top 14 by season's end.

Nothing of any significance is happening today in the Pac-10, in terms of the conference race, with Oregon having lost on Thursday night and both USC and ASU idle in anticipation of their Thanksgiving showdown. However, Cal's slide into oblivion continues as Washington picked up its second conference win at the Bears' expense, 37-23. It's a shame the Huskies weren't able to pull out either of their recent close losses (against Arizona or Oregon State), because if they had, they'd be heading into next week's Apple Cup with a shot at bowl-eligibility still alive (though they'd then have had to upset Hawaii in Hawaii the following week).

Last but not least (okay, maybe least), in the ACC, Clemson plays Boston College tonight for the Atlantic Division title. Who will be their ACC title-game opponent? That will be decided by next week's Virginia-Virginia Tech game. Which means that, if West Virginia beats Cincy tonight, next week will feature three head-to-head, BCS conference- or division-deciding games. (UConn-WVU, Kansas-Missouri, and Virginia-Virginia Tech.) Four if you count Boise State-Hawaii, which is now officially all set after Boise crushed Idaho, 58-14.

Are you ready for some football?

By Brendan Loy

Specifically, some #95 vs. #103, 1-9 vs. 1-9, worst-nationally-televised-game-in-history football? It's the Duke Super Bowl, and it's a half-hour away. GOOOO IRISH!!!! BEEEEAT DUKE!!!! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, BEAT DUKE!

UPDATE: "Let's be honest, this is some bad football." --NBC announcer. It's 0-0, late in the second quarter.

UPDATE 2: Notre Dame scored two late touchdowns off Duke fumbles, and it's 14-0 Irish at halftime.

Hawaii survives Nevada scare

By Brendan Loy

Hawaii, sans Colt Brennan (mostly), escaped Reno with a 28-26 win over Nevada last night, thanks to a 45-yard field goal with 11 seconds left (or rather, two 45-yard field goals, as Nevada's coach pulled the timeout trick to force the Warriors' Dan Kelly to kick it twice).

Now, if Boise State can take care of business against Idaho this afternoon, next Friday night's Broncos-Warriors matchup -- with not just a WAC title, but a possible BCS berth, on the line -- will be all set. And Brennan is expected to be back for that one.

So, go Boise... and go Michigan!! (The Wolverines, who could clear the WAC champion's path to the BCS with a win over Ohio State, trail 7-3 at halftime.)

Dixon done

By David K.

Oregon quarterback and Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon is done for the season after tearing his anterior-cruciate ligament in Thursday's game against Arizona. Dixon will need to have surgery with a recovery time of six months.

Blame Canada Ryan Leaf

By Brendan Loy

Oregon's loss is all Ryan Leaf's fault. Heh.

Also: "Remember the implications of this: because of the injury to Dennis Dixon’s knee, we might see literally dozens of football players suffer career-ending injuries in their attempt to carry a victorious Mark Mangino off the field in New Orleans this January."

(For the uninitiated, that would be this Mark Mangino, he of the many cupcakes. h/t.)

UPDATE: Dennis Dixon is out for the season. DAMN YOU, RYAN LEAF!!!

The season without a champion

By Brendan Loy

It's become increasingly common in the sports blogosphere to refer to the BCS title game as the "MNC," meaning "Mythical National Championship." As regular readers know, I despise the BCS, so I agree with the sentiment, but I have nevertheless resisted the "MNC" label because I don't want to confuse people with unnecessary blog-hipster jargon.

That said, never has the label been more appropriate. Unless Kansas goes 13-0, in which case they will have earned the right to be called an undisputed national champ, this year's "champion" will indeed be mythical. Commenter Sandy Underpants expressed this point well yesterday:

It's become fairly obvious that there will not be a National Champion this season. Sure a team (or two (or three)) will get the BCS title and the AP title and the Golf Digest title, but they aren't going to be national champions because they were dominant or the best, they're going to be champs because the season ran out. If we kept going there would be a new number 1 and 2 team during the week of December 8 and a new 1&2 December 15.

Indeed. It's tempting to argue that LSU is somehow above the rest of the pack, and that they would eventually become the obvious choice if the season continued indefinitely, but in light of their close shaves (and their loss, albeit on the road in triple-overtime, to a team that has since been exposed as only slightly above average), I'm not sure that's accurate. I think the Tigers are a bit like Hillary Clinton: they've been at or near the top of the polls for long enough that they are starting to feel inevitable, but they haven't actually done anything to establish that they're head-and-shoulders above everyone else.

Continue reading "The season without a champion" »

Down goes #2 -- again

By Brendan Loy

Arizona 34, Oregon 24, final. The injury-plagued Ducks are the fifth #2 team to lose to an unranked opponent this season.

Ridicluous.

The Big 12 trio of Kansas-Oklahoma-Missouri now unquestionably occupies the #2 spot in the BCS pecking order. #3 is West Virginia. #4? I'd say it's Arizona State, rather than Ohio State; I think the Sun Devils will leapfrog the Buckeyes if both win out. Regardless, the Sun Devils now control their Rose Bowl destiny.

And on that front, how about USC? If the Trojans win out, they can earn their sixth straight Pac-10 title or share thereof. They'll need another Oregon loss to reach the Rose Bowl, though.

Oh, and if eight of the Top 10 teams not named Arizona State lose between now and December 2, the Trojans could be playing in New Orleans on January 7. Far-fetched? Not this season. Fight on!

P.S. I just did a quickie BCS bowl projection update, and, assuming USC beats ASU, Oregon and Texas win out, the Big 12 champion reaches the national title game, and West Virginia wins the Big East, I think this could mean a Trojans-Longhorns rematch in the Fiesta Bowl:

Title game: LSU vs. Oklahoma (or Missouri or Kansas, whatever)
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Texas (!!!)
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Boise/Hawaii/Illinois

At least now, if Oregon wins out, we won't have to see a Rose Bowl pitting either USC vs. Michigan (for the third time in five years) or USC vs. Ohio State (next year's home opener). Frankly, given the competition, I'd rather see the Trojans in the Fiesta Bowl. Playing Texas (or some other Big 12 team, or Georgia, or whomever) would be interesting and fun. The Buckeyes or Skunkbears? Bleh.

On the other hand, what if Michigan beats tOSU on Saturday, and Oregon wins out? We'd be looking at a Rose Bowl rematch of that dreadful Michigan-Oregon game from September. Yikes. Would the never-before-used "greater good of college football" clause be invoked to prevent such a yawner?

Thursday night football

By David K.

I haven't paid much attention to the Thursday night games this year, but with tonights game featuring current #2 Oregon it looks a lot more interesting to Pac-10 fans. Oregon is taking an agressive approach to the game so far and its working for them. Dennis Dixon scrambled 40+ yards on a 4th and 3 to score a touchdown and then they quick snapped for a 2pt conversion. Will Arizona be able to respond? Apparently not as Oregon just intercepted a Tuitama long pass on the Wildcats second play of the night.

Box score here, game is on ESPN.

UPDATE Oregon QB Dennis Dixon, a leading Heisman candidate is likely done for the night after taking a bad step and wrenching his injured knee. The question now is whether he is done for just the night or done for the whole season. Can Oregon win out with Brady Leaf stepping in at QB?

UPDATE x2 Following Dixon's exit from the game Arizona has been on fire especially on special teams and now lead by 17 points going into the half.

UPDATE FINAL Arizona wins the upset 34-24
Oregon becomes the 5th #2 team to lose to an unranked opponent this season. I imagine Coach Stoops (Arizona) will be getting a good phone call from Coach Stoops (Oklahoma) after this game. Dennis Dixon continued an unlucky streak for west coast quarterbacks, we'll see if he is back for next weeks game, but Oregon is out of the picture when it comes to the national championship, can they make it to the Rose Bowl? According to the announcers this will be the first time since 1998 that Arizona has won back to back Pac-10 home games. Yikes.

Hail hail Michigan, defenders of the WAC?

By Brendan Loy

Once upon a time, serial underdog-rooters like myself dared to dream that the November 23 showdown between Hawaii and Boise State would be "an absolutely HUGE game, with not just WAC title implications, but BCS implications" for both teams. Then the Broncos of Boise, the newly crowned Fiesta Bowl champions and mid-major conquering heroes, lost their opener to Washington, and the dream died -- or so we thought. Yet here we are, just over two months later, and the odds are increasing that the Broncos-Warriors clash will be a virtual BCS play-in game (assuming, of course, that both teams take care of business this weekend, and also assuming Hawaii, if it beats Boise State, proceeds to beat Washington the following weekend).

I blogged about this last week, but thanks to the events of this past Saturday -- particularly those in the Big Ten -- and the discovery of a scenario that I hadn't previously considered, it's worth revisiting.

There are three ways for a mid-major conference champion to qualify for the BCS in spite of the bowls' aversion to voluntarily inviting them. One is to finish in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings. Another is to finish between #13 and #16, and ahead of the champion of at least one BCS conference. And the third -- which I hadn't thought of before, until Stewart Mandel mentioned it in yesterday's Mailbag -- is to finish in the Top 14 when four of the other Top 14 teams are ineligible to be invited because of the two-team-per-conference limit, thus forcing the bowls to invite all ten eligible teams, including the "little guy" they'd rather leave at home.

The Top 12 scenario is the easiest to comprehend, but it's also the least likely to occur this season. Hawaii may be able to pull it off, but Boise probably can't, barring several upsets among teams currently ranked a bit above them (e.g., Texas, Florida, etc.).

The Top 16 scenario is much more likely, as I believe both Hawaii and Boise are virtual locks to finish #16 or higher if they win out. The bigger question is whether any BCS champion will finish below them, and while everyone seems to be focusing on the ACC and Big East on that front, I believe the key to the whole scenario is Saturday's game in Ann Arbor. Fans of the Warriors and Broncos may want to wear some maize & blue these next couple of days, and perhaps softly hum "Hail to the Victors" as they go about their business, because their hopes of reaching the BCS may well depend on the fortunes of the Michigan Wolverines. I'll return to that scenario and analyze it in more detail after the jump.

Then there's the Top 14 scenario. In this situation, the WAC champ wouldn't technically get an "automatic" BCS bid, but they'd be guaranteed an invitation anyway because of a glut of SEC, Pac-10 and Big 12 teams in the BCS Top 14. Here's how it would work: if the ACC, Big Ten and Big East champions all finish in the Top 14, and no other teams from those conferences join them there, that would leave seven BCS invitations to go around, but the other three major conferences are only eligible for two invitations each -- a total of six. That leaves one extra, which would of necessity go to a #13- or #14-ranked WAC champ.

More on both of the latter two scenarios after the jump.

Continue reading "Hail hail Michigan, defenders of the WAC?" »

Quote of the day

By Brendan Loy

From Stewart Mandel's Mailbag:

How the heck can college football increase the number of games in a season, keep the same bowl eligibility requirements (six wins), and the Pac-10 still not manage to produce enough teams to fill its bowls?
--Jeff G., Ellicott City, Md.

Two words, my friend: Karl Dorrell.

Heh.

Buffalo football update

By Brendan Loy

Miami of Ohio hosts Akron tonight at 7:30 in a ESPN2 weeknight game that has major implications for the surprising Buffalo Bulls. Here's a detailed rundown of the MAC East scenarios, but basically, because Buffalo squandered its chance to put away the division by losing to Miami 11 days ago, they now need the RedHawks to lose. Thus, it would be really, really helpful for UB's division championship hopes if Akron were to pull the upset tonight. (Miami has two games left: tonight's tilt and a visit to hated UB rival Ohio next Saturday. Buffalo also has two remaining games: vs. Bowling Green this Saturday and at Kent State next Saturday.)

Oddly enough, however, winning a division title might arguably hurt Buffalo's chances of qualifying for a bowl game. If Buffalo and Miami both win out, the Bulls won't go to the MAC title game -- but at 6-6, they'll be bowl-eligible, and believe it or not, they might actually be an attractive option for the International Bowl in nearby Toronto, which has third pick among eligible MAC teams. On the other hand, if Buffalo wins out and Miami loses a game, Buffalo will carry that 6-6 record into the MAC title game, which would be an all-or-nothing proposition for the Bulls: win, and they'd be guaranteed a bowl invitation; lose, and they'd be bowl-ineligible at 6-7. (The NCAA will grant a bowl-eligibility exemption to 6-7 conference champs, but not to 6-7 runner-ups.)

But maybe I'm being a homer (for my, like, fifth-favorite team... heh) in thinking that the International Bowl would give 6-6 Buffalo a second look based purely on location. Presuming that UB fans would travel to Toronto en masse if their team gets a bowl invite would be a leap of faith, to say the least. I think the bowl's decision would depend in part on how many MAC teams are bowl-eligible, and how many of those get to 7 wins. (On both fronts, a bunch of teams are on the bubble at the moment.) Either way, if you're a Buffalo fan, I guess it makes more sense to root for the Bulls to, uh, take the bull by the horns, if you will, and earn their way to a bowl game -- which means winning out, hoping Miami loses, and then winning that MAC title game. Besides, even by getting to the MAC title game, Buffalo would be a national TV, which is almost like a bowl game. So: Go Bulls! And more immediately, Go Akron!

Locker OK

By David K.

Official update during the broadcast of the UW game. UW QB Jake Locker, who earlier left in an ambulance, has been released from the hospital and is returning to the game. Presumably he won't be playing anymore tonight, but with the results from the hospital negative and his being released, looks like there is hope for his return next week. Meanwhile the UW has pulled within 6 points of the Beavers with 7 minutes left in the game. Lets go Dawgs!

UPDATE: The Huskies get a lucky break from what is a horrible call by the refs, who gave the Huskies a fumble recovery on a play where OSU running back Bernard was CLEARLY down at the 3 yard line. However they were able to snap the ball before anyone could call for a review.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Washington lost, 29-23.

Meanwhile, Locker wasn't the only quarterback out west who suffered a scary helmet-to-helmet hit in one of yesterday's late games. Hawaii's Colt Brennan -- who has a showdown with Locker's Huskies on December 1 -- suffered a mild concussion in the Warriors' win over Fresno State:

The Warriors are now 9-0 and 6-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, one of just two unbeaten teams left in the nation. But much of the talk was about Brennan's status after the hardest hit many watching had ever seen in a football game.

The crushing blow (shoulder first, no flag) dealt by Bulldogs linebacker Marcus Riley left Brennan unconscious briefly, and with what was initially diagnosed as a grade 3 (the most severe) concussion. It was later described as "mild" by a UH official, and several people said Brennan was back to normal after the game.

Brennan did not talk to reporters afterward, but did release a statement.

"I'm doing fine," he said through a UH spokesman. "I'd like to thank everyone for the support they gave out there. I'm looking forward to getting back on the field for next week's game against Nevada." ...

[A] UH official described Brennan as "day-to-day" when it comes to football duties. Brennan did not require hospitalization.

Coach June Jones said he does not expect Brennan to miss Friday's game at Nevada.

Today in the ACC

By JLR

Some huge ACC games today--a few of which with national implications.

For starters, I just got home from the BC/Maryland game (Maryland 42, # 8 BC 35)  Maryland's now 5-5 ... One more win (@ FSU or @ NC State) to be bowl eligible.  Let's GOOOOOO MAR-Y-LAND!

All of the other nationally-ranked ACC teams won today (#11 Virginia Tech, #19 Virginia, and #21 Clemson all won).

Even though that was the only real upset today in the ACC, BC's loss and Clemson's victory over Wake Forest today puts Clemson in first place in the ACC-Atlantic Division ... And Clemson plays BC at home next week.  Since that's Clemson's last ACC game this season (they finish the season against arch-rival South Carolina), it's a must-win for Clemson to make it to the ACC championship game against either Virginia or Virginia Tech (who play each other on the 24th in Charlottesville).

Quote of the day

By Brendan Loy

"Hey, I want you to know something. My dad fought in the war so you could have the privilege to say dumb things." --Lou Holtz to Mark May on ESPN's College Football Final, after an argument over whether Kansas (10-0) is the best team in the country.

Heh.

Jake Locker leaves game in ambulance

By Brendan Loy

Scary news from Corvallis:

Washington Husky quarterback Jake Locker was injured and taken off the field on a stretcher and left Reser Stadium in an ambulance tonight in the second quarter of a Pac-10 game against Oregon State.

Locker was hit hard on a scramble with 6:18 to go in the second quarter. The redshirt freshman was attempting to pick up a third-and-six when he scrambled and was hit helmet-to-helmet by Oregon State safety Al Afalava. Oregon State linebacker Joey LaRocque was also in on the play.

Locker landed face down in front of the Huskies' bench at the 45-yard line and did not move while being immediately tended to by trainers.

He was turned over, his facemask was cut off and he was put on a stretcher and lifted into an ambulance after about 10 minutes. Play-by-play radio announcer Bob Rondeau said on KJR-AM that Locker was moving all of his limbs but there was concern about a possible neck injury.

Locker was taken to Good Samaritan Hospital in Corvallis and there was no immediate update on his condition. Washington teammates circled Locker, the team's leader and the centerpiece of the team's future hopes, as doctors worked. Locker's parents, Scott and Anita, moved down to the field, with Anita Locker hugging Huskies coach Tyrone Willingham as doctors worked on her son. Anita Locker rode in the ambulance with her son.

More here. Thoughts and prayers here.

The game is still ongoing. UW trails 16-0, and a loss would mathematically eliminate the 3-6 Huskies from any chance at bowl eligibility, but I imagine that's the least of your average Washington fan's concerns right now.

Trojans win!

By Brendan Loy

USC 24, Cal 17, final.

Fight on! w00t! Beat the Sun Devils!!

Defense? We don't need no stinkin' defense

By Brendan Loy

Navy 74, North Texas 62, final. Good lord. (And they actually slowed down in the second half. It was 49-45 at halftime.)

USC, Cal tied; Vols-Hogs photos

By Brendan Loy

USC and Cal are tied 17-17 with 13:41 left.

Hopefully the end result will be better than the basketball team's opener earlier today. (Again with the Atlantic Sun conference knocking off ranked teams at home!)

Anyway... here are some photos from my afternoon at the Tennessee-Arkansas game:


Bloggers unite! Me with Mark from Loser with Socks and Jonathan from 82 Sluggo Win.


The Vols come in through the "Power T."


Austin Rogers scores Tennessee's first touchdown of the day, and the crowd goes wild.


Arkansas's quarterback passes the ball. Why on earth the Razorbacks did so much of this, I have no idea. They have the country's best running back, Darren McFadden -- and he only ran the ball five meaningful times in the first half. Most of his 22 carries came after the game was already out of hand. Not only that, but on a whole bunch of occasions, he wasn't even on the field on crucial plays. Houston Nutt is a terrible, terrible coach.


Jonathan, Jay and me. (I put on the long-sleeve shirt, and the USC shirt over it, after the Tennessee game ended. It was getting chilly... and it was time to root for the Trojans agaist Cal!)

Illini upset Buckeyes!

By David K.

Illinois was able to hold off Ohio State and came away with an amazing 28-21 win in Columbus to ruin their undefeated season and likely keep them out of the National Championship game.

Who will be #1 next week? LSU, Oregon, or undefeated Kansas?

Update: Heh, looks like someone over at SI.com needs to do some fact checking, their football page currently has the following link: Illinois snaps No. 13 Michigan's win streak.

College Football Update

By David K.

Good afternoon sports fans! With Brendan out celebrating Tennessee's win over Arkansas, a little guestblogger updating on todays football action.

As Brendan mentions below Wisconsin upset Michigan, but a Wolverine win over Ohio State next week would send them to the BCS game (presumeably the Rose Bowl) in January as the Big-Ten representative.

Meanwhile, despite striking early with a touchdown in the first 13 seconds of the game, #1 Ohio State is trailing unranked Illinois 28-21 at home. An Illini win would likely set up a 1 loss team as the new #1 with #2 LSU strong favorites against Louisiana Tech and #3 Oregon having a bye this week (they take on Arizona on Thursday night).

In the SEC, Mississippi State upset 22nd ranked Alabama and became bowl eligible. The scoring in the game consisted of 2 touchdowns and 5 field goals with a final score of 17-12 in traditional SEC style.

Clemson crushed Wake Forest to stay within striking distance of the ACC-Coastal title, they would need to beat Boston College next week and would likely face the winner of the Virginia/Virginia Tech game in the ACC Championship.

Down in the Big 12, Missouri is doing its part to make sure their last regular season game against Kansas would be for the Big 12 North title with a win today over struggling Big 12 South opponent Texas A&M.

#16 Connecticut's Cinderlla season in the Big East is in trouble as they trail unranked (but 7-2) Cincinatti 20-3 in the 3rd quarter. Connecticut would still sit atop the Big East, tied with W Virginia, but the Huskies still have to play the mountaineers at home.

In the Pac-10 #9 ASU is attempting to hold off the schizophrenic Bruins who led early but now trail the Sun Devils by 4 in the 3rd.

USC will take on Cal at 8pm EDT in a game that many had thought might decide the Pac-10 title when the season started.

Finally, Charlie Weis continued to show his patriotism as the Irish lost at home to a strong Air Force team, despite an improved performance from Jimmy Clausen in his return as a starter. The Irish drop to 1-9 for the first time ever but hope remains for their final home game as they take on perennial doormat Duke (who, of course, suck).

WVU wins, keeps pressure on UConn

By Brendan Loy

West Virginia beat Louisville yesterday -- in a game attended by Trojan CFB blog road-tripper Jonathan Tu, who will drive to Knoxville today for tomorrow's Tennessee-Arkansas game -- in Morgantown by a score of 38-31, thereby keeping the pressure on surprise Big East leader UConn. If WVU (3-1 Big East) had lost, UConn (4-0) would have had a two-game lead over everyone in the conference, meaning they could have lost any one of their final three games, including the November 24 game at West Virginia, and still won the conference. Instead, as things stand now, the Huskies can still finish 2-1 and win the conference, but one of the wins must be over West Virginia.

UConn plays Cincinnati, which is also still in the Big East hunt at 2-2, Saturday at Cincy. The Huskies have yet to prove they can beat a quality opponent on the road, so this is a big game, even though UConn could lose it and still win the conference by beating Syracuse and WVU. The Huskies' three consecutive wins over Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers were all at Rentschler Field; their only two victories away from East Hartford have been over Duke and Pitt, and their one loss was on the road against Virginia. Two of their final three games are on the road against tough opponents: the Bearcats on Saturday, the Mountaineers in two weeks.

Also, if UConn beats Cincinnati and follows it up with a home win over lowly Syracuse next week, and West Virginia loses at Cincy next week, the Huskies would clinch the conference before even taking the field against WVU.

I never got around to writing my planned "UConn is for real" post after they beat USF, but Sunday Morning Quarterback had a good post on Tuesday titled "Getting to know UConn." In it, SMQ examines how the Huskies have managed to achieve this level of success, and then asks, "is UConn good? Does it matter?" A comparison to 2006-07 Wake Forest is made. Those guys, you may recall, ended up in a BCS bowl.

Karl Dorrell and the race card

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

Anyone want a Vols-Hogs ticket?

By Brendan Loy

I mentioned yesterday that I'm going to Saturday's 12:30 PM Tennessee-Arkansas game with Jonathan (who will be driving in from Morgantown on Friday after attending the West Virginia-Louisville game Thursday night) and Jay. What I didn't mention is that we have a fourth ticket that needs a home. I've asked a couple of people, but as the ticket is presently still unclaimed, I thought I'd open it up for any Irish Trojan readers who might be in the greater Knoxville area and would be interested in a face value ($44) ticket to see the Vols take on the Razorbacks at 108,000-strong "Fort Neyland." Granted, this could result in my sitting next to some weirdo from the Internet, but so could selling it on Craigslist or StubHub, so why not? :) Anyway, if you're interested, shoot me an e-mail this afternoon or evening at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com. Otherwise, I think I may have a Craigslist buyer. So let me know.

Les Miles liberates Pakistan

By Brendan Loy

First, there was the fake interview with Les Miles. Then, the fake brain x-ray. And now, via the great (and broke) road-tripping Jonathan Tu, this piece of comedy gold:

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN - After four days of martial law and nearly eight years under former President Pervez Musharraf, the Republic of Pakistan was restored to order by LSU (8-1, 5-1 SEC West) head coach Les Miles, who parachuted into the Muslim country in a daring pre-dawn raid.

“People of Pakistan, you are free!” Miles shouted from the highest step of the Pakistani House of Parliament.

Heh.

Next season on 24: Jack Bauer finally meets his match... Les Miles.

Boi criticizes Troy

By Brendan Loy

Scott Schmidt, a.k.a. Boi From Troy, has an op-ed in today's L.A. Times -- in which he criticizes USC. Specifically: "no one should be so arrogant as to think that their talent on the field will excuse their behavior off it. Yet if Heritage Hall celebrates O.J. Simpson the football player while looking away from O.J. Simpson the man, regrettably, that is the idea we're left with."

P.S. But -- through no fault of Scott's, I'm sure -- the headline writer misused an apostrophe in the subhead!!! "The university still honor's Simpson's football career" ... AAAHH!!! Somebody call the grammar police!!

I'm going to Tennessee-Arkansas!

By Brendan Loy

With Jay and Jonathan Tu! (He of the whirlwind, season-long, cross-country college-football odyssey.) For face value! w00t!

Two years ago, I was at the L.A. Coliseum for the game in which Reggie Bush turned out a mind-bogglingly amazing performance that basically clinched the Heisman. At Neyland Stadium on Saturday, will I see the Razorbacks' resurgent Darren McFadden do the same thing? Let's hope not, for Tennessee's sake. Still, I think it's always worthwhile to see great players in person, whichever team they're playing for.

Oh yeah, and Tennessee controls its own destiny for the SEC championship. So that's good too. :) Go Big Orange!

GameDay goes to Williams-Amherst game

By Brendan Loy

ESPN GameDay is going to a Division III game for the first time in its history this Saturday, visiting Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts for the "Biggest Little Game in America," the 122nd annual showdown between rivals Williams and Amherst.

NCAA to meet with Reggiegate snitch today

By Brendan Loy

A cloud of uncertainty hangs over Trojan Nation today, as Lloyd Lake -- the would-be agent, not the body of water -- will meet with NCAA investigators to discuss the Reggie Bush case.

Er, and no, why of course my use of the word "snitch" in the headline doesn't imply that I don't want the truth to come out. What ever would give you that idea? Ahem.

Anyway, it might seem impossible that USC is going to emerge from this clusterf*** unscathed, but you know what they say: Impossible is nothing.

Previous Reggiegate posts here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

UPDATE: Trojan fans, this will make you feel better. Vote for Ruth!!

ND's offense: Bad? Yes. Worst ever? Maybe not.

By Brendan Loy

There's been a lot of schadenfreude-ian talk in recent weeks about how Notre Dame's offense might be the worst in college football history.  One Florida blogger has devoted a special category just to tracking the alleged statistical evidence of this dubious distinction. And the talk hasn't just been coming from the Domer-haters. Even the venerable Fighting Irish blog Blue-Gray Sky conceded last month that ND's offense "could go down in history as one of the worst ever produced, if not THE worst."

Now, I'm not going to sit here and defend Notre Dame's offense. It's been terrible. Awful. Bloody abysmal. But to claim, on the basis of nothing more precise or meaningful than an absolute, context-free measure of yards per game, that it might be the OMG WORST OFFENSE EVER!!!, is an indictment of lies, damn lies, and statistics, more than it's an indictment of Notre Dame's putrid offense (which is bad enough without being indicted for crimes it didn't commit, for heaven's sake).

Continue reading "ND's offense: Bad? Yes. Worst ever? Maybe not." »

Navy cancels classes to celebrate win

By Brendan Loy

Uh-oh. Now we're going to lose the war, and it's all Charlie Weis's fault:

The Naval Academy canceled classes Monday, giving the 4,400 midshipmen another day to celebrate the football team's first victory over Notre Dame in 44 tries.

Charlie Weis: Giving our brave men & women in uniform an excuse to slack off, and thus helping the terrorists win, since 2007. Way to go, Coach.

;) Just kidding, of course.

This year's Boise State: Boise State?

By Brendan Loy

NOTE: An earlier version of this post was based on an incorrect recollection of the BCS qualification rules; I was thinking the Top 14 is the cutoff for automatic at-large qualification by a non-BCS team, but it's actually the Top 12, which changes things significantly. I've altered the post accordingly.

Looking at this week's BCS standings, I notice something very interesting: while Hawaii (8-0), ranked #14 last week, has slipped to #16 (leapfrogged by Texas and Florida), Boise State (8-1) has risen from #22 to #20, thanks to losses by Alabama and Kentucky (previously #17 and #18, respectively).

Hawaii's schedule is so weak -- though no fault of their own, but rather, due to the utter wimpiness of big-time programs who refused to play them despite being offered as much as $500,000 to do so -- that the Warriors don't even register in the computers at the moment. (That is to say, they're outside of the Top 25 in every single computer, so their computer rating for BCS purposes is a big fat .000.) That may change if they win their last four games, including the November 23 showdown with Boise State, but their computer profile will certainly remain very weak. However, I do believe they'll finish in the Top 12 if they win out, and thus get invited automatically to a BCS bowl.

But what about Boise State? If the Broncos take care of business against the absolutely wretched opponents they face the next two weeks (Utah State and Idaho, a combined 1-18), and then beat Hawaii on the 23rd to earn the WAC championship, could last year's Cinderella become this year's big surprise -- the first one-loss team from a non-BCS conference to earn a trip to a BCS bowl?

I think it's entirely possible. Of course, the weakness of their next two opponents will hurt Boise's computer profile -- but then the strength of their final opponent (Hawaii) will boost it. And attrition among higher-ranked teams will inevitably keep their poll ranking moving up over the next four weeks, if they just keep winning. A bunch of teams currently ranked above them are destined to lose sooner or later: for example, only one of the ACC trio Boston College, Virginia Tech and Virginia can make it to the finish line unscathed. Same goes for USC and Arizona State from the Pac-10, Auburn and Georgia from the SEC, and West Virginia and UConn from the Big East: somebody's gotta lose those games, and with all teams involved being ranked #9 or lower, and the pollsters' tendency to punish teams severely for late losses, there's a pretty good chance the losers will fall behind Boise State. Michigan, too, will fall behind the Broncos if they lose to Ohio State. And of course, Boise can take care of #16 Hawaii itself.

Adding it up, I count between five and seven spots that Boise is likely to climb by pure attrition before season's end, if they win out. That would get them to between #13 and #15: not quite good enough, but close. Add in the likelihood of an extra boost from pollsters if the Broncos pull off what would be a high-profile, nationally televised win over Hawaii, and they'd be even closer. Throw in a couple of upsets -- Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks over Florida, anyone? How about Texas Tech and/or A&M over Texas? -- and the Broncos could be in business.

Alternatively, Boise could take advantage of the rule that gives a non-BCS conference champion an automatic bid if they're ranked between #13 and #16 and ahead a BCS conference champ. Scenarios to consider here: UConn, currently #13, loses one of its next three games, but still wins the Big East by beating West Virginia. Michigan, currently #12, loses at Wisconsin, but still wins the Big Ten by beating Ohio State. Florida, Georgia and Tennessee each lose a game, so the Vols, currently #23, go to the SEC title game with an 8-4 overall record... and win. If any of those things were to happen, Boise State would probably be all set, again assuming they win out.

All things considered, I give Boise State a 50/50 chance of making a BCS bowl -- despite that season-opening loss to Washington -- if they win out.

Once upon a time, I thought the Hawaii-Boise State game in three weeks would be "an absolutely HUGE game, with not just WAC title implications, but BCS implications" for both teams. When the Broncos lost to the Huskies on September 8, it looked like that dream was doomed. But maybe not! Go Broncos & Warriors! Beat various & sundry midgets! Bust the BCS! Again! :)

P.S. ESPN's Brad Edwards (subscription required), of "Road to the BCS," is a bit less bullish than me. He thinks Boise State's only realistic hope is the finishing-ahead-of-a-BCS-conference-champ route: "BSU isn't likely to reach the top 12 (needed for an automatic at-large bid), but top 16 is a possibility, which could get them into a major bowl if the champion of an automatic-bid conference (most likely the ACC) is ranked lower."

I disagree with his "most likely the ACC" comment; I think the Big East is the most likely, at least in terms of the ease of concocting the scenario. UConn would certainly plummet with a loss -- the Huskies' national profile is so low that their high ranking is incredibly tenuous -- and wouldn't gain back that much ground by beating West Virginia (a result which would do more to discredit WVU in the pollsters' eyes than to boost UConn's cred). But perhaps Edwards just thinks it's really unlikely UConn beats WVU. In any event, the ACC certainly could fit the bill as well. The best scenario would be if Virginia loses to Miami but then beats Virginia Tech and wins the title game. Alternatively, BC could beat Clemson, lose to Miami, and then win the title game. Those are, I think, the most likely scenarios where the ACC champ could finish below Boise.

UCLA sucks

By Brendan Loy

As an Irish Trojan, I don't subscribe to the notion of the "perfect day" -- a day when USC wins and both UCLA and Notre Dame lose -- but for those more typical Trojans who do, this has to be one of the sweetest "perfect days" in recent memory. USC avenged last year's loss to Oregon State, UCLA got embarrassed by lowly Arizona, and Notre Dame lost to Navy. Man.

As for me, all I can say is Beat the Bears, and Beeeeat Falcons!

And then there were 3

By Brendan Loy

Arizona State's loss to Oregon and Boston College's loss to Florida State mean that the ranks of the unbeaten have shrunk from five to three -- only two of whom are legit national-title contenders. (Hawaii, through no fault of its own, has played such a weak schedule that its computer numbers are way too low to contend for the BCS Top 2; I don't think they have any chance even if the rest of the highly ranked teams suffer a total meltdown over the next four weeks.)

The two remaining unbeatens who matter are #1 Ohio State and #8 Kansas. You'd have to think the Jayhawks, who picked a very good week to pile up some style points against hapless Nebraska, will move ahead of ASU and BC, leapfrog idle West Virginia, and maybe leapfrog Oklahoma too, to reach #5 or #4 next week. The top one-loss teams will be #2 LSU, #3 Oregon and #4/5 OU.

As a side note, can you imagine if UConn had beaten Virginia three weeks ago? The Huskies -- who crushed Rutgers tonight -- would be one of the three remaining unbeatens with a shot at the national title. In football. Unbelievable.

Anyway, back to Kansas. With games coming up against #9 (soon to be #7) Missouri and, if they reach the Big 12 title game, #6 (soon to be #5 or #4) Oklahoma, the undefeated Jayhawks will have plenty of opportunity to earn quality wins before season's end. Notwithstanding the name on their jerseys, I have to believe they'll make it to the championship game if they win out, even if LSU and/or Oregon also wins out.

That brings me to the following scenario. Imagine Ohio State, Kansas and LSU all win out. The Buckeyes and Jayhawks head into the title game with nobody really sure how good they are. Meanwhile, LSU rolls to the SEC championship, the triple-overtime loss at Kentucky their only blemish. Ranked #3 in the final BCS standings, the Tigers go to the Sugar Bowl -- and let's suppose they play a decent, well-respected opponent there. (This is the least likely part of the scenario. The Sugar Bowl picks last among the BCS bowls, so if Hawaii wins out and qualifies, the Warriors will most likely be going to New Orleans. If not, the Sugar Bowl could easily feature some other unwanted stepchild like UConn. But suppose things shake out right, and LSU ends up playing someone like West Virginia, someone they'd get credit for beating.)

Now suppose LSU absolutely crushes its well-respected Sugar Bowl opponent, while Kansas and Ohio State play an ugly, ugly championship game that makes both teams look bad. Let's say Kansas wins. In the process, though, the widespread doubts about both of the relatively untested teams in the title game are confirmed. Do you see yet where I'm going with this? The BCS and coaches poll championship is, of course, awarded to undefeated Kansas, the winner of the title game ... but the Associated Press, in a split vote, gives its #1 spot and share of national championship to the far more impressive-looking Tigers of Louisiana State University, despite their one loss. Suddenly every LSU fan, from sea to shining sea, is forced to go through incredible mental and rhetorical gymnastics trying to explain why their AP championship is legit, while USC only got a "one-peat." Oh, it would be so freaking sweet.

PLEASE, PLEASE, COLLEGE FOOTBALL GODS, MAKE THIS HAPPEN.

Anchors Aweigh

By Brendan Loy

I didn't explicitly say it before, so I just want to echo BGS and say: Congrats to Navy.

They played well, and hard -- as exemplified by this play. They earned this win. They deserve it. Well done, men.

Saban winning loses Saban Bowl

By Brendan Loy

It's Alabama 27, LSU 24 early in the fourth quarter. Will the Tigers go from a national title game contender to missing out on the SEC title game?

Meanwhile, Oregon leads ASU 21-13 at halftime after the Sun Devils' horrible clock management caused them to totally blow a golden opportunity to score before the half.

And UConn is beating Rutgers 18-3. Go Huskies!

Oh, and no score yet between USC and Oregon State. Fight on Trojans! Stuff the Beavers! BTW, for those who, like me, are outside of the ABC regional feed, you can listen live on KSCR.

UPDATE: LSU came back to win, 41-34.

Oregon is up big, 35-16 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. ASU has made a ton of comebacks, but this deficit may be too much even for Dennis Erickson Second-Half Magic to overcome.

And USC leads 10-3.

UPDATE 2: Ducks & Trojans win. USC may yet make it to the Rose Bowl, if Oregon makes it to the BCS title game. The Trojans need to beat Cal, ASU and UCLA, and hope that three of the following four teams lose: Ohio State, Boston College, LSU, Kansas. And BC is losing right now...

P.S. Suppose the title game is Ohio State vs. Oregon. Suppose also that USC wins out and gets picked by the Rose Bowl to replace the Ducks. Who would the Trojans' opponent be? Not Michigan; the Wolverines will fall out of the BCS Top 14 if they lose to the Buckeyes. Not any other Big Ten team; nobody else from that conference will be BCS-eligible, either. Hmm... if LSU loses the SEC title game but is still eligible for a BCS at-large bid, which they probably would be, how about a Trojans-Tigers Rose Bowl?

Navy 46, Notre Dame 44, final in 3 OTs

By Brendan Loy

Let the explosion of anti-Irish schadenfreude begin. From sea to shining sea, every college-football fan who doesn't root for Notre Dame is loving this one. It's Navy's first win over ND in 44 years, ending an NCAA-record 43-game losing streak against a single opponent... and the Irish are now 1-8 this season, 1-10 in their last eleven games. Over at ND Nation, their heads asplode.

Fire Mike Brey Charlie Weis?

P.S. Here's the game story. Linked page also contains a clip of Lou Holtz's ESPN pep talk... for Navy. I guess it worked.

UPDATE: Dylan at the Blue-Gray Sky writes: "Ask not for whom the bell tolls, Charlie. It tolls for thee. Great recruiter. Great coordinator. Not a very good head coach."

ND-Navy close so far; Buffalo up early

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame and Navy are tied at 7 early in the second quarter, as Notre Dame attempts to improve to 2-10 in its last 12 games, while Navy attempts to improve to 1-43 in the last 44 years against the Irish. ND is only a 3-point favorite at home over the Midshipmen. [UPDATE: While I was writing this, Notre Dame scored, and now it's 14-7. GOOOO IRISH! BEEEEAT NAVY!]

Meanwhile, in a game that could determine the MAC East championship, Buffalo -- a 7-point underdog on the road -- is up 7-3 over Miami of Ohio in the first quarter.

But the score of the afternoon right now is this one: Kansas 69, Nebraska 31... with three minutes left in the third quarter.

UPDATE: It's 21-14 Irish at halftime, and 17-7 Miami over Buffalo late in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the final score in Lawrence was Kansas 76, Nebraska 39. Ouch!

UPDATE 2: Buffalo has rallied to tie the game at halftime. Go Bulls!

UPDATE 3: Are we about to witness history? Navy has taken a 28-21 lead with just over 10 minutes left in the game. Sharpley fumbled the ball deep in Irish territory, and a Midshipmen defender rumbled in for a touchdown. ND Nation is in full meltdown mode.

Meanwhile, Buffalo trails 31-20 late in the third quarter.

UPDATE 4: Tie game, 28-28, 3:17 left. Navy ball.

UPDATE 5: The Irish got the ball back, and had a 4th and 8 on the Navy 28, needing only a field goal to win... but instead of trying the 42-yard attempt, they went for it, Sharpley got sacked, and we're going to overtime.

An ND Nation poster writes: "I just don't have any energy left to support Chuck. His playcalling today has been at least as bad as Wild Bill's [Callahan, I think]. His choice to not even attempt that FG was almost as bad as Ty punting from BC's 30. Time to start the coaching search." Lots of other comments along the same lines (though some disagree).

UPDATE 6: Buffalo lost, 31-28. :(

UPDATE 7: Phew! Notre Dame survives overtime #2, managing to hold Navy to a field goal after only getting a FG themselves, and we're going to a triple overtime. 38-38.

UPDATE 8: Navy's quarterback gets his sixth and seventh completed passes of the entire game for a 25-yard touchdown and two-point conversion to open the third overtime. Amazing. 46-38 Navy. Irish ball.

UPDATE 9: Navy wins.

To be honest, I'm glad they got the two-point conversion on the second try, because the interference call on the first try was ridiculous. He went for the ball, and that's exactly what he got. The only thing he "interfered" with was the football, and I'm pretty sure that's allowed. It would have been a travesty if Navy had lost because of that call.

The Teetering Twelve

By Brendan Loy

Last week, for the first time all season, relative predictability reigned in college football. Yes, Georgia upset Florida and Mississippi State stunned Kentucky, and yes, we all learned to our great surprise that UConn is apparently for real... but in the big picture, it was a calm Week 9, at least in comparison to Weeks 1-8.

Of particular note, all five undefeated teams were in action last week -- three of them on the road, three of them against ranked opponents, four of them favored by four points or less -- and yet all five won. That's the first time all season a week has gone by without a previously undefeated team suffering its first loss. So the Fantastic Five is still a Fantastic Five. And only four of the Edgy Eleven one-loss teams lost -- three of them to another one-loss or undefeated team. The only team from last week's list of contenders to lose to someone off the radar was Virginia, which fell at N.C. State. So we're left with a Skittish Seven.

Perhaps it makes sense that last week was relatively predictable, though. After all, I had predicted unpredictability, declaring: "[Nearly] every...team with a zero or a one in the loss column is potentially vulnerable, at least on paper." So, in this season when what's "on paper" matters less than ever, it figures that the college football gods would defy prediction by being predictable when many people were predicting unpredictability. :)

If that's right, then this week will probably be the upset-fest that I expected last week to be, because -- on paper -- this one looks like it should be a calm week. Of the remaining five undefeated and seven one-loss teams (collectively, the "Teetering Twelve" -- teetering, that is, on the edge of elimination from title contention), aside from the showdown between ASU (8-0) and Oregon (7-1), there are only two road games (LSU at Alabama, Missouri at Colorado), and only one matchup that screams "potential upset" (UConn vs. Rutgers). Most of the teams on our list are expected to handle this week's opponents fairly easily. Which, given the way this season has gone, probably means they won't.

Anyway, without further ado, here are your Fantastic Five and Skittish Seven. Oh, and let's not forget the Terrible Two: Florida International and Utah State, both 0-8. (Marshall earned its way out of the Threadbare Three last week with a win over Rice.) Here goes...

Continue reading "The Teetering Twelve" »

Booty's back

By Brendan Loy

You know it's an unusual season in the land of Troy when you go to usctrojans.com on the Friday afternoon before a football game -- the Homecoming football game, in fact -- and the top story is "USC BASKETBALL 2007: Five Questions For O.J. Mayo." Heh. (The Trojans are #18 in both preseason basketball polls -- one spot higher than their current BCS ranking.)

Anyway, John David Booty will start for USC against Oregon State tomorrow. It'll be his chance to avenge the loss that started his team's recent Pac-10 slide (the Trojans are 6-4 in their last 10 conference games, after winning a zillion in a row prior to last year's loss in Corvallis). But unless we go to a sports bar, Becky and I won't be able to watch it; we'll get Florida State-Boston College instead.

But that's okay, because honestly, I'm more interested in watching the big Pac-10 game of the week (nay, year!), #4 Arizona State at #5 Oregon, especially now that it's been announced that Rudy Carpenter will play for ASU despite a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. That's good news for Stewart Mandel, who wrote that "seven hours is a long way for me to fly to watch some backup," and also for ESPN, which rescued the game from Fox Sports Net oblivion by buying the rights to broadcast it nationally in those regions not served by the originally planned regional FSN telecast. (Sadly for the folks in Oregon and Arizona -- and Southern California, I think -- they still have to watch it on crappy FSN.)

If the Sun Devils, who are 7-point underdogs despite their higher ranking, manage to beat the Ducks this week, and follow it up with a win over UCLA next week (don't count out the worst-coached team in America; following up losses to Utah, Notre Dame and Wazzu with a win over 9-0 Arizona State would be totally in line with Karl Dorrell's baffling of neverending inconsistency), they'd be 10-0 when USC comes to town on Thanksgiving Day. I wonder, if that happens, which of her alma maters would Becky -- who went to ASU for grad school, remember -- root for? Normally she, like me, roots for the Trojans against all comers, but if a USC win would just mean the difference between Some Crappy Bowl and Some Other Crappy Bowl, whereas an ASU win would get the Sun Devils within one win (against Arizona) of the national championship game... I dunno what she'd do. Becky? (Yeah, I could just ask her in person, but asking her over the blog is more fun in this case. :)

Better than Cal-Stanford?

By Brendan Loy

I haven't been able to watch this yet (I'm currently at the airport using a very slow cell-phone connection), but people keep sending it to me, so I figure I'd better post it. From what I'm told, it's the ridiculously crazy ending to a Division III conference championship game yesterday, and the only thing missing is the Stanford band. Enjoy:

Buffalo-Miami a crucial MAC East showdown

By Brendan Loy

The Buffalo Bulls, college football's dormat for so many years, continue to have their most successful season since moving to Division I-A in 1999. They beat Akron yesterday to move to 4-5 overall, and they can now almost assure themselves of a division title if they win at Miami of Ohio on Saturday -- or at least reduce the division race to a two-team battle: themselves against Bowling Green.

The Bulls are 4-1 in the MAC, and more importantly, 3-0 in the MAC East. The division title is actually determined by the teams' intradivisional records, and here's how those standings look right now, with each team's remaining divisional schedules listed after their records:

Buffalo 3-0 (@Miami, BG, at Kent)
Miami (OH) 2-1 (Buffalo, Akron, at Ohio)
Temple 2-2 (at Ohio, Kent)
Bowling Green 2-2 (Akron, at Buffalo)
Akron 1-2 (at Bowling Green, Ohio, at Miami)
Ohio 1-2 (Temple, at Akron, Miami)
Kent State 1-3 (Temple, Buffalo)

So, as you can see, if Buffalo beats Miami, they'd be ahead of everyone else in the conference by two games in the loss column -- with two games to go.

Moreover, the Bulls would own the head-to-head tiebreaker against every two-loss team except Bowling Green (who they haven't played yet). I haven't studied the MAC's multi-team tiebreaker rules, but I assume Buffalo's head-to-head success would mean that, if they win Saturday, they'd be assured of a division title by a single UB win or BG loss in those teams' remaining divisional games. (Buffalo hosts Bowling Green on Nov. 17, and then finishes the regular season at Kent State on Nov. 24; Bowling Green hosts Akron on Friday, and finishes with their visit to Buffalo on Nov. 17. So, if Akron beats Bowling Green and then Buffalo beats Miami, I think the Bulls actually would clinch the division title on Saturday, with two games to go.)

Winning the MAC East title would, of course, put Buffalo in the MAC championship game on December 1. However, although the Bulls could potentially get there with a 5-1 or even 4-2 divisional mark, that would mean they'd have a 6-6 or 5-7 record overall, which would mean they'd have to win the MAC title game in order to qualify for a bowl. Normally, the MAC runner-up gets a bowl bid, but a 6-7 or 5-8 runner-up is not bowl-eligible. (A 6-7 champion, on the other hand, is likely to receive an excemption from the NCAA and be allowed to play in a bowl. As I recall, that happened in the Sun Belt sometime recently.)

Of course, the downside of all this is, the more success UB has, the more likely head coach Turner Gill is to attract Nebraska's attention.

But regardless... GO BULLS!!

P.S. Discussion by UB fans here and here.

USC drops to #13, UConn ranked #16

By Brendan Loy

While Ohio State and Michigan continue to tediously steamroll toward their 836th consecutive Big Ten-deciding showdown (if the Wolverines win, can we please declare Appalachian State the Big Ten champ instead, and let them play in the Rose Bowl?), the rest of the nation's conferences are in total disarray. For instance, raise your hand if you thought any of the following games would potentially have massive BCS implications for both teams:

• Arizona State at Oregon, next Saturday
• Kansas at Missouri, November 24
• UConn at West Virginia, November 24

Seriously, WTF? Meanwhile, USC-Cal has been reduced to a battle to stay out of the Las Vegas Bowl. Oh, and defending champ Florida? At 5-3, they're not even bowl-eligible yet.

Good lord. It's a brave new world out there.

That said, the new AP poll is out, and for the first time in forever, there are no major changes at the top. Ohio State is #1, Boston College #2, LSU #3, Oregon #4 and Oklahoma #5. The latter two switched places from last week (OU was idle, Oregon beat USC), but otherwise the Top 5 is unchanged.

Arizona State moves up from #7 to #6 (leapfrogging West Virginia), and is now getting two first-place votes. Too bad for the Sun Devils that Cal lost two straight before last night, otherwise ASU would probably have jumped to #3 or #4 by beating the Bears. Now the question is, if the Sun Devils can beat Oregon in Eugune next Saturday, how high do they rise? If there's any justice in the world, they should certainly jump the one-loss teams and move up to no lower than #3. (That said, I think Oregon will win. Oregon is good.)

Meanwhile, whereas losing games unexpectedly in the Pac-10 means you're overrated, losing games unexpectedly in the SEC means the conference is "deep" and "competitive" and "a war." At least, that's how I interpret the fact that all four of the ranked three-loss teams are from the SEC (#18 Florida, #19 Auburn, #23 South Carolina, #24 Tennessee), while three-loss Cal -- which, um, beat Tennessee -- is unranked. (The Bears lost to UCLA, Oregon State and ASU, which I'd say is certainly no worse than losing to Cal and getting absolutely destroyed by Florida and Alabama.)

Oh, and USC fell from #9 to #13. They're just behind #12 Hawaii (!).

Elsewhere in the rankings, Kansas and Missouri are now both in the Top 10 (at #8 and #9, respectively). Michigan -- which, as you may or may not recall, lost to Appalachian State earlier this year -- is #15. They're one spot ahead of UConn... yes, UConn... which is now #16. In football. (More on the Huskies in a separate post later.) Also, Boise State has rejoined the Top 25, at #21.

Warning: profanity

By Brendan Loy

Every Day Should Be Saturday, whose head blogger is a Florida fan, summarizes yesterday's Georgia game. Prodigious profanity is involved. Heh.

Vols-Cocks game regains SEC significance

By Brendan Loy

Two weeks ago, it looked like this week's Tennessee-South Carolina game (underway now) would potentially decide the SEC East. The Volunteers and Gamecocks were the only teams in the division that controlled their own destinies. Then last week, Tennessee got crushed by Alabama and South Carolina was upset by Vanderbilt, taking all the air out of tonight's matchup.

Or so it seemed. Incredibly, by kickoff time tonight, UT-USC had regained its former significance. Thanks to the latest round of SEC madness -- specifically, Georgia's upset of Florida and Kentucky's loss to Mississippi State -- Tennessee and South Carolina are again the only SEC East teams that control their own destinies. Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt have three losses apiece; Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina have just two. And since Georgia's two conferences losses are to the Vols and Cocks, the Bulldogs will have to hope that tonight's winner loses another game at some point.

Whoever comes out on top at Neyland Stadium this evening won't need any (more) help. They'll just need to win their remaining games, and if they do that, they'll be playing in Atlanta for the conference championship on December 1.

Remarkable.

I've had limited blogging time today, which is why I haven't said much about the day's other football developments. But I wanted to get this online while the game is still ongoing. As for the rest, including UConn's win over South Florida (!), I'll blog later. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Speaking of "remarkable"... Tennessee blew a 21-0 halftime lead, fell behind 24-21 with 1:24 left, then sent the game to overtime on a 48-yard field goal (after missing a 43-yarder but getting a second chance because the whistle had already blown on a false start penalty) and won in OT. Tennessee 27, South Carolina 24, final.

I'm exhausted, and about to go to bed. I'll try to do some more football blogging tomorrow, but it may not happen until I'm at the Nashville Airport in the late afternoon, if then. Lots of stuff to do. G'nite all.

Oregon 24, USC 17

By Brendan Loy

Dammit.

But hey, on the bright side, Buffalo won! It's the second time this season Buffalo has won and USC has lost on the same day, and both instances occurred on a weekend when I was going to Denver (although in this case I'm not there yet). Is this a sign of some kind? :) Anyway, the Bulls are now 4-0 in the MAC East, and 4-5 overall -- their most wins in a season since joining Division I-A.

We're baaack (quack quack)

By Brendan Loy

Got back from the Smokies around 4:00, and just finished fast-forwarding through the first half of USC-Oregon, stopping to watch almost every play in real time while skipping all the fluff in between. Based on what I saw, I'm not feeling terribly inspired. USC's offense looked terrible, and the defense is trying hard but just isn't as good as Oregon's offense, seemingly. It strikes me that the Trojans are lucky to be within 10-3. Barring some serious Pete Carroll Second-Half MagicTM, I foresee an Duck blowout -- which would be the first time since Becky and I were juniors at 'SC (in 2001) that the Trojans have lost a game that wasn't decided on the final play.

UPDATE: Touchdown Trojans! Sanchez to Turner! 10-10.

UPDATE 2: The Ducks do what the Trojans twice failed to do -- taking advantage of a turnover deep in their own territory -- and it's 17-10 Oregon.

UPDATE 3: F**k!

UPDATE 4: 24-10 Ducks with 11:39 left in the game.

In other news, what the hell is wrong with Fox Sports Net?? The camerawork is AWFUL (I keep not being able to see the quarterback, and the ball is invisible half the time on passing plays because they haven't adequately adjusted their cameras to the shadows now covering the field), and they have entirely missed several plays, including Oregon's 2nd-and-goal run just now. WTF???

UPDATE 5: Touchdown! 24-17 with 4:44 to go!

But again, the camerawork! I couldn't even see that there was a receiver in the end zone until he had already caught the ball! It looked like Sanchez was throwing the ball to nobody, and then all of a sudden, the camera panned down and -- what? there's a guy there! TOUCHDOWN! What a wretched, wretched football broadcast this is.

But enough bitching about FSN. FIGHT ON TROJANS!!! Get the ball back!!

UPDATE 6: Aaaaaand Oregon intercepts it. Ducks win.

Well, it wasn't a blowout, at least. Once again, a USC loss comes down to a final drive. But Oregon was clearly the better team.

Congrats, Ducks.

Harumph.

P.S. Why do the FSN announcers keep saying it looks like the Pac-10 won't get two teams into the BCS? I can see no basis for that statement. If either Oregon or Arizona State makes it to the title game, which is entirely possible, the Rose Bowl will certainly try to replace them with another Pac-10 team, and it seems extremely unlikely that there won't be any other Pac-10 teams in the BCS Top 14 and thus eligible for selection. Either Cal or USC could be there if they win out, as could the loser of next week's Oregon-ASU game if they win out after said game. It's possible the Pac-10 will cannibalize itself enough that only the conference champion will reach a BCS bowl, but it's by no means preordained at this point.

Beat the Ducks!!!

By Brendan Loy

Becky and I plan to drive up into the Smokies in the morning to check out some of the fall foliage. It's really our last chance to see the high-elevation colors near their peak, since I fly out to Denver on Sunday and next weekend the mountains will presumably be past peak. So I'm sacrificing ESPN GameDay and the Rutgers-West Virginia game for the sake of a pretty drive. I know, I'm such a martyr. :)

I hope to be back by 3:00 PM for the USC-Oregon game, but I don't have too much confidence that that will happen; I imagine traffic in the Smokies will be heavy, as I doubt we're the only people with this idea for a Saturday morning/afternoon activity. Anyway, we're TiVoing the game, and if we get back late, I'll be taking a pre-Deathly Hallows-esque vow of Internet avoidance from 3:00 on, in order to maintain the suspense when I fire up the TiVo and pretend I'm watching the game live. So, if I don't blog anything for a while, that's why.

FIGHT ON TROJANS! BEAT THE DUCKS!

Brady Quinn, USC Trojan

By Brendan Loy

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA:

There you have it: the photo evidence of Brady Quinn's lost bet with Rodney Peete on last Saturday's USC-Notre Dame game.

But it gets even better. There's video evidence, too:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

(NOTE: The video clip has changed since I originally uploaded it Thursday night. Among other things, I've added a little musical coda at the end that my Trojan readers will enjoy...)

Thanks to the anonymous commenter who pointed me to the photo. And thanks to Brady-Quinn.org, a fan site, for linking to the video clips on the Browns site and YouTube that allowed me to mash up the above clip.

Of course, even as I glory in it, I can sympathize with Brady's plight. As can Mike Tran. Sometimes friendly bets are a b**ch. :) But kudos to Brady for upholding his end of the deal.

Now then... BEAT THE DUCKS!!!

Woohoo! It's Sanchez against Oregon

By Brendan Loy

Sorry, John David, but I'm happy about this: "Mark Sanchez will start at quarterback Saturday against Oregon, Coach Pete Carroll announced Thursday afternoon."

Meanwhile, Oregon has yet to announce which uniforms it will wear. There are so many choices: the hideous ones, the butt-ugly ones, the gouge-your-eyes-out-with-their-sheer-repulsiveness ones...

Thanks, Jacoby

By Brendan Loy

Thanks to Jacoby Ellsbury's stolen base tonight, Taco Bell will be giving away free tacos on my birthday. Heh.

Anyway, it's 2-1 Sox in the sixth.

Meanwhile, Boston College is staging a late rally after trailing Virginia Tech 10-0 for most of the game. It's 10-7 Hokies with 36 seconds left, and the Eagles are deep in Tech territory.

UPDATE: Touchdown Boston College!! Holy crap!! I think Matt Ryan just won the Heisman... and BC has broken the #2 curse! (Dammit.)

UPDATE 2: ...aaaaand Matt Ryan barfs on live TV.

UPDATE 3: "Ryan for Heismann!" Heh.

Okay, back to the World Series...

UPDATE 4: JACK BAUER IS ON HIS OWN!!!!!

UPDATE 5: Sox win!! 2-1, final. It's a 2-0 series lead for Boston, heading out to Denver.

Free fallin'

By Brendan Loy

The Blue-Gray Sky has an awesome aerial photo of the Army parachuters beginning their jump down to Notre Dame Stadium before Saturday's game against USC. Definitely check it out.

It's been a crazy season...

By Brendan Loy

...but road-tripping USC alum Jonathan Tu has the scoop on the biggest upset of all.

Heh.

Brady Quinn loses bet, wears USC jersey

By Brendan Loy

Heh:

Browns rookie quarterback Brady Quinn reached into the back of his locker, pulled out the cardinal-and-gold No. 10 jersey and gritted his teeth.

"This," he said, "is going to hurt."

Quinn, the former Notre Dame star, then slipped the Southern California jersey over his head and felt his skin crawl.

"That's why I've got extra layers on," he said. "So it doesn't actually touch any part of my body."

Quinn had to wear USC's colors on Wednesday after losing a bet with former Trojans quarterback Rodney Peete over last week's game between Notre Dame and Southern Cal. ...

Surely, Quinn got some points in the wager. After all, Notre Dame is 1-7 and USC is 6-1.

"It's a pride bet," Quinn said. "C'mon now. You don't bet points. I got faith in my guys." ...

When he finished with his interview, Quinn quickly ripped off the jersey and slam dunked it into a nearby garbage can.

Mike Tran should sent Brady a sympathy card. :)

(Hat tip: Scott Wolf.)

Fantastic 5, Edgy 11 and Threadbare 3

By Brendan Loy

This weekend promises to be a pivotal one in the race for college football's mythical national championship. In all but two of the eleven games featuring at least one undefeated or one-loss team, the point spread is less than a touchdown. Homestanding Hawaii and Missouri are favored by 27 and 29 points over New Mexico State and Iowa State, respectively, but aside from them -- and idle LSU and Oklahoma -- every other team with a zero or a one in the loss column is potentially vulnerable, at least on paper. Could this be the week when the ranks of the unbeaten and once-beaten become so thin that we begin seriously discussing the possibility of a two-loss team reaching the BCS title game?

Certainly, there will be at least three losses this weekend among the sixteen teams on our radar: the Fantastic Five unbeatens and the Edgy Eleven once-beatens ("edgy," in the sense of "on edge," because one more loss would well and truly eliminate them from the title race... probably). That's because, of course, #8 Virginia Tech (6-1) hosts #2 Boston College (7-0) in this week's edition of the ESPN Family Of Networks Thursday Night Game Of The Century Week; #5 Oregon (6-1) hosts #12 USC (6-1) in a battle for Pac-10 supremacy on Fox Sports Net (pay no attention to the Bruins and Sun Devils behind the curtain!); and #23 UConn (6-1) hosts #10 South Florida (6-1) in a major Big East showdown that, of course, everyone has had circled on their calendars all season long... right?

So, yeah, three of those six teams have to lose. But lots of other teams from the Fantastic Five and the Edgy Eleven face tough battles this weekend, too. For instance: Arizona State finally puts its undefeated record to the test, albeit at home against a suddenly reeling Cal team. Kansas travels to Texas A&M. West Virginia visits revenge-minded Rutgers. And of course, #1 Ohio State visits #25 Penn State in the OMG Buckeyes If You Win This Game Then All You Have To Do Is Beat A Bunch Of Midgets And Those Guys Who Lost To Appalachian State And You'll Make It To The Title Game Again And Then Lose By Eight Thousand Points To Another One-Loss Team Bowl.

Oh, and lest I neglect the flip side of the college-football coin, let's not forget the BrendanLoy.com winless watch. Colorado State finally won a game last week, breaking an 13-game losing streak. So now the Frail Four is a Threadbare Three. (Hat tip: Patrick, last year.) And one of them is actually favored this week: #118 Marshall (0-7), which hosts #112 Rice (1-6). In fact, the Thundering Herd is (are?) an 8.5-point favorite! That's more than #15 Virginia (7-1) can say about its away game against #82 N.C. State (2-5): the Cavs are only favored by three! Talk about disrespect from Vegas! But anyway, I digress. So yeah, Marshall is favored, and Utah State (0-7) is just a 2.5-point underdog against Louisiana Tech (2-5). Among the Threadbare Three, only Florida International, they of the worst-in-the-nation 19-game losing streak, is seen as a sure loser (at 39-point-favorite Arkansas).

So, whether you're interested in the top of the heap or the bottom of the barrel, this promises to be a very competitive week of college football. And depending on how it goes, maybe I'll have to start tracking two-loss teams next week. (Sigh.)

Anyway, without further ado, here is this week's list of the unbeaten, once-beaten, and constantly-beaten:

Continue reading "Fantastic 5, Edgy 11 and Threadbare 3" »

ASU #4, Oregon #5, USC #12 in BCS

By Brendan Loy

The new BCS standings are out. No surprise that Ohio State is #1, Boston College #2 (just in time to fall victim to the #2 Curse against Virginia Tech on Thursday), and LSU #3. But check out who's next: Arizona State, idle last week, managed to climb all the way from eighth to fourth!

ASU's rise is partially due to attrition, with losses by #2 South Florida, #6 South Carolina and #7 Kentucky over the weekend, but the Sun Devils' impressive victory over the University of Bye was enough to leapfrog former #5 Oklahoma, which barely escaped with a win over lowly Iowa State. And you know who else leapfrogged Oklahoma? The Sooners' BFFs in the Pacific Northwest, the Oregon Ducks! How the formerly #10-ranked quack attack got all the way up to #5 by beating 2-5 Washington, I'm not sure, but I'm guessing a Pac-10 replay crew was involved somehow.

In all seriousness, it's a big-time statistical logjam from #4 through #6; the decimal digits separating ASU, Oregon and Oklahoma really aren't all that significant. Next on the list are #7 West Virginia, #8 Virginia Tech, #9 Kansas, and #10 South Florida.

USC, which visits #5 Oregon next Saturday, is #12. Hey, it's a 5-12 game! It's like March Madness! And we know a scrappy 12-seed wins every year! Woo! Go Trojans! Will O.J. Mayo be suiting up?

Interestingly, the Trojans feature the biggest difference between the polls (which have them #7 and #8) and the computers (which have them #21). I think #21 might be a little harsh, but I certainly think the computers are closer to reality here, recognizing, as they do, that the Trojans have accomplished absolutely nothing of significance on the field so far this season. Let's see 'em beat Oregon and Cal and ASU, and then we can talk about a high ranking, m'kay?

Meanwhile, the football squad from the University of Michigan -- you may recall them as the opening-weekend patsy scheduled by Div. I-AA powerhouse Appalachian State as a tune-up game for the Mountaineers -- has climbed all the way to #20, which just goes to show that even the little guys can succeed if they believe in themselves. Nice going, Michigan. Kitten power!

Oh, and UConn is #23. UConn!!! They're sandwiched between Auburn and Alabama. UCONN!!! In FOOTBALL!!!

Saban Bowl likely to decide SEC West

By Brendan Loy

Wow. What a win for LSU over Auburn tonight. I love to make fun of the SEC -- both because of its homers' over-the-top puffery about the conference's superiority, and because of the league's tendency to produce "thrilling" games with final scores like 9-6 -- but I can't deny that there have been a remarkable number of incredibly exciting big-time SEC games this season, and this was just the latest example.

Thanks to a picture-perfect, highlight-reel, Pontiac-game-changing-performance touchdown with one second left* (pictured above), LSU remains in the national-title hunt -- and the SEC West standings reveal a much clearer picture than in the jumbled East, with just two teams tied at one loss apiece: LSU and Alabama (which humiliated Tennessee earlier in the day).

And, as it happens, the co-leaders play each other in their next game! The Tigers and Tide both get byes next week, and then on November 3, LSU visits Tuscaloosa for a showdown that will likely decide who represents the West division in the SEC championship game. (Auburn is third in the division with 2 losses; everyone else has at least 3 losses.)

LSU-Alabama was always going to be a very big game this year, because it's Nick Saban against his old team. Now it's absolutely HUGE. Methinks Fowler, Kirk and Corso should just book their plane tickets now, because there ain't no other game that day that's going to even be in the running for a visit from GameDay. (Sorry, ASU-Oregon.)

*Well, three seconds, really. Everyone is making a big deal out of the :01 thing, but it was clear that 2-3 extra seconds came off the clock that shouldn't have; I think the clock operator stopped paying attention because he was so stunned by Les Miles's play call. Nevertheless, the Tigers admittedly cut things awfully close, considering they only needed a field goal.

You stay classy, Irish fans

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame fans tend to pride themselves on being "classier" than other fans. And in some cases, it's true. But not in this case:

As USC coach Pete Carroll departed the field, the Notre Dame fans chanted, "F--- Pete Carroll."

Well, that's one way to handle the pain of a 38-point loss. It is not, however, the classy way. And if USC fans did something like that, we'd be hearing all about how it proves that Trojans are classless.

(More after the jump.)

Continue reading "You stay classy, Irish fans" »

Just in case anyone was wondering...

By Brendan Loy

...the grass looks normal length:

:)

Football & baseball update

By Brendan Loy

Washington and Oregon are tied 24-24 in the third quarter. The Huskies trailed 24-17 at halftime but scored first in the second frame, so maybe their second-half woes are finally behind them? We shall see. A win here would be huge for the bowl eligibility hopes of Washington (2-4), which has Arizona and Stanford next on its schedule. The Huskies play 13 games, so they need a 7-6 record to make a bowl game. [UPDATE: While I was writing this post, Oregon scored a TD to take a 31-24 lead with 3:38 left in the third.]

An Oregon loss would mean that Cal and Oregon, who have been the presumptive Pac-10 favorites since USC lost to Stanford, would both have 2 losses in conference, while the Trojans have just one, and Arizona State and UCLA -- yes, UCLA, which got pummelled by Utah and handed Notre Dame its only win of the season -- are both unbeaten in conference play. And with all but one game between and among the Trojans, Ducks, Bears and Devils still to come, it looks more and more like the Pac-10 standings will end up looking a bit like the SEC East. But of course, if that happens, it'll mean the Pac-10 is "overrated," whereas in the SEC, it means the conference is "really competitive."

[UPDATE 2: Um, yeah, so, nevermind. Oregon 55, Washington 34, final. Another second-half Husky collapse -- specifically, a fourth-quarter collapse. It was tied at 31-31 with 1:12 left in the third.]

Speaking of the SEC, Auburn just took a 14-7 lead over LSU. And in the Big Ten, Michigan leads Illinois 17-14 at halftime. GO ILLINI!! BREAK THE SKUNKBEAR/BUCKEYE HEGEMONY!!

Meanwhile, in baseball, the Red Sox appear well on their way (knock on wood!) to erasing their 3-1 deficit against the Indians, tying the series at 3-3 and forcing a decisive Game 7 at Fenway Park tomorrow night. Admittedly, it's only the third inning of Game 6 right now... but it's already 10-1 Boston, thanks in part to a first-inning grand slam by J.D. Drew:

Nice.

Victory

By Brendan Loy

So... who starts at QB for the Trojans next week at Oregon?

And, um, will Navy beat Notre Dame?

P.S. Brian Grummell echoes my thoughts:

I have to be frank here: USC just isn't a very good football team right now. In fact, many of their problems all year manifested themselves in the first half against Notre Dame today. Fortunately for the Trojans, Notre Dame is that much worse of a football team that at one point in the third quarter USC had as many touchdowns as the Irish had first downs. ...

The fact that a shaky USC was able to so easily dismantle a Notre Dame team that was competitive against a highly ranked Boston College tea