Obama lines up the supers

On Sunday morning, I wrote:

Assuming conservative projections of 22 pledged delegates in Puerto Rico today, and 8 each in South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, he needs 27 more delegates -- out of 218.5 undeclared superdelegates and Edwards pledgees.

The only question, really, is whether he'll get those 27 delegates by the time he takes to the stage in Minnesota Tuesday night, so he can declare victory then and there. I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of supers declare for Obama within, say, an hour after the polls close in Montana and Souta Dakota.

Now it looks like that's exactly what's going to happen:

Sensing an opportunity to shut down the nominating contest, Obama campaign advisers said that they were orchestrating an endorsement of Mr. Obama by at least eight Senate and House members who had pledged to remain uncommitted until the primaries ended, and that the endorsements would come the moment the South Dakota polls closed on Tuesday night.

Only one problem: the final polls close in South Dakota at 9:00 PM EDT (though polls in most of the state close at 8:00), but Montana's polls stay open until 10:00. So if these supers are really going to "remain uncommitted until the primaries end," don't they need to wait until "the moment the Montana polls close"?

Then there's the Harry Reid theory, which is that the remaining supers should stay mum "until the final votes have been counted." That would mean Wednesday morning at the earliest. But I think Obama has the right idea here. As I wrote last night, I think there's a danger of Hillary & co. talking themselves into continuing their campaign -- or at least taking the "middle option" of suspending-but-not-endorsing -- if the momentum of the moment doesn't very quickly usher them offstage tonight.

Dragging this thing out further is not a good strategy for anyone who wants the campaign to end this week (which is the same thing as saying "end before the convention," because IMHO, it either ends this week or it ends in August). Tonight is the best possible moment to declare a definitive winner and be done with it. If you give Hillary a chance to dither and delay, she'll dither and delay, and when the dust settles, she may well have fallen under the sway of her own (and Bill's) "keep fighting" rhetoric. Far better to rip the band-aid off quickly. Forget about "disrespecting" the Clintons; first of all, they deserve it, and second of all, the pain of that "insult" will fade. The pain of a three-month battle en route to Denver, won't. So, with all due respect to Harry Reid, he's wrong. Once Obama is assured of 2,018 delegates, there's no reason to delay, and doing so could prove grossly counterproductive. He should declare victory tonight, if he can. 

Luckily, it seems I'm preaching to the choir on this; Obama apparently agrees with me. Here's another take on his efforts to end it tonight:

With an expected late wave of support from congressional Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama appeared poised to secure enough delegates to earn his party's presidential nomination, perhaps even before the votes from the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana are counted Tuesday night. ...

A Democratic source said at least five to 10 House members would endorse Obama on Tuesday morning, at least 10 senators will endorse him by the end of the day and an additional 10 superdelegates will also endorse him during the day. That would assure enough delegates by the end of the day to clinch the nomination.

Keep in mind, if the networks are able to immediately "call" South Dakota and Montana (based on exit polls) when the polls close, that'll be 17 delegates right off the bat. Currently, by his own count, Obama is 39 delegates away from clinching an outright majority, so he'll be able to declare himself the presumptive nominee at 10:00 PM -- assuming early "calls" in South Dakota and Montana -- if he gets 22 superdelegate endorsements between now and then. (That's not including his first three supers today -- Clyburn, Lalonde and Chappelle-Nadal -- who are already included in the count.)

P.S. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reports:

The three highest ranking Democrats in Montana plan to wade into the Democratic presidential race as soon as the state's primary is decided tonight, according to a source familiar with the decision.

Gov. Brian Schweitzer as well as Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester have agreed to all endorse the winner of Montana's primary -- almost certain to be Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) -- immediately upon the contest being called. The trio will be joined in the endorsement by state party chairman Dennis McDonald and vice chairman Margaret Campbell.

Politico's Ben Smith writes that the Montana 5 are "likely to be part of a substantial wave that comes to Obama when polls close."

P.P.S. Pablano projects that Obama will win by 18 points in Montana, but only by 5 points in South Dakota. If that's correct, Montana will probably be "called" right at 10:00, but there might not be a clear winner in South Dakota until late into the night, in which case Obama might want to pick up another couple of supers today (perhaps 24 or 25, instead of 22), so he can still declare victory at 10:00 or very shortly minutes thereafter. (He'll want to do so before 11:00, certainly, lest Tim Russert go to bed before Obama's victory speech!)

UPDATE: A potentially significant bulletin from the AP:

Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said Tuesday that once Obama gets the majority of convention delegates, "I think Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."

UPDATE 2: CNN clarifies:

Sen. Hillary Clinton's is "absolutely not" prepared to concede the race for the Democratic presidential nomination to Sen. Barack Obama, her campaign chairman said.

Terry McAuliffe rejected as "100 percent incorrect" an Associated Press report that Clinton is preparing to acknowledge that Obama has the delegates to win the nomination Tuesday night as the five-month Democratic primary process comes to a close.

Obama "doesn't have the numbers today, and until someone has the numbers the race goes on," McAuliffe told CNN.

But that's not much of a denial, or "rejection." He said "until someone has the numbers" -- which could well be tonight! His bluster notwithstanding, the clarification is totally consistent with the earlier report.   

Comments

[Fax Paladin]

Clinton not ready to admit defeat, official tells CNN

[Angrier and Angrier]

I have a feeling that these assholes won't concede until the convention.

[kcatnd]

I think there is an apt quote from the Beatles' "You're Gonna Lose That Girl" for this situation:

If you don't take her out tonight
She's gonna change her mind
And I will take her out tonight
And I will treat her kind.

[kcatnd]

As much as I cringe to type it, I think she'll bow out gracefully tonight once it's clear Obama has clinched it. Until then, it's still a 100%-absolutely-not-conceding tack.

[Sandy Underpants]

How could anyone so greatly over-estimate Hillary's level of class?