Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Signing off

By Brendan Loy

G'nite, all. See you on the other side.

The end

By Brendan Loy

Guestblogging is turned off, and I'll be shutting down comments in a few minutes, and redirecting this URL to the new blog shortly thereafter.

Thanks for the memories, everybody.

Oh, and don't be deceived by the title of this post. Much like The Return of the King, this blog will have more than one ending. :) One final "signing off" post will follow...

P.S. Since I'll be signing off as the "Irish Trojan," I should probably link one last time to the post that started it all, in regard to that name.

Apropos of nothing

By Brendan Loy

Somehow, I've had this blog for over six years without ever posting this clip. Well, time to fix that omission while there's still time:

Homosexual eases into 100 final at Olympic trials

By David K.

So, the far-right group American Family Association is one of apparently many right-wing groups that use auto-correct to replace potentially offensive (to them at least) words in articles posted to their news streams.  I don't even know if it's legal to take an AP article and auto-replace words like that.

Well, the AFA has a problem with the word "gay" and so they auto-replace it with the word "homosexual".  (Any of you following the Olympic trials can see where this is going.)  Trouble is that "gay" isn't always used to mean homosexual.  Not only can it mean happy, it also happens to be a not uncommon last name.  Such is the case with Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay.  Which of course leads us to the utterly hilarious headline that is the title of this post.

You can read more about this utterly pointless and unintentionally hillarious pseudo-censorship here.

McCain predicts Bradley Effect?

By Brendan Loy

Hmm... this is interesting:

The presumptive GOP nominee tells voters in an afternoon Pickersville, Pennsylvania town hall that the state will pick the winner in November — and he will be behind until right before the polls close.

McCain's point seems to be simply that he's the underdog, which is undoubtedly true. But, if the election is close, it's quite possible that he'll be literally right; indeed, he might seem to be behind even after some polls close... until the combined impact of the Bradley-Wilder Effect and the Exit-Poll Liberal Selection Bias Effect (see: the Seven-Hour Presidency of John Kerry) is revealed, when actual vote totals -- as opposed to final opinion polls and leaked exit polls -- reveal a narrow McCain victory.

I'm not predicting it. I'm just saying it's a possibility.

"Period. Full stop."

By Brendan Loy

Just a thought: it would be nice to see John McCain clarify his non-answer about Barack Obama's patriotism in the same sort of straightforward, no-nonsense, not-open-to-interpretation way that Obama responded today to Wesley Clark's comments questioning the value of McCain's military service.

The John McCain of 2000 and 2004 would have done it. Will the John McCain of 2008?

P.S. Incidentally, Obama also criticized MoveOn.org -- specifically its "General Betray Us" ad -- in the same speech.

UPDATE: It seems Obama's answer on the Clark front isn't good enough for the McCain campaign, which appears to be implicitly adopting the position that a candidate can be faulted for anything his supporters say, even after the candidate clearly and explicitly disavows it. I trust the McCain folks won't mind when this same standard is applied to them.

McCain's only hope in this election is to make the case that he is the true candidate of change, reform, "straight talk," etc. In short, he needs the "McCain brand" to both survive the collapse of the "Republican brand" and to trump the shininess of the "Obama brand." It's a tough task, but Obama has recently opened the door for McCain with his reversals on several issues, particularly campaign financing. (For that matter, the MoveOn.org thing is something of a flip-flop; Obama pointedly did not vote on the resolution to condemn the ad, back when it was primary season and a "Yes" vote might have hurt him with the base.) McCain is obviously trying to take advantage of the opportunity he's been handed. But, in this still-undecided voter's view, he's doing so in precisely the wrong way.

McCain needs to kill Obama with kindness, honesty and straightforwardness, not heavy-handedly twist and contort his words in a blatant political game that ultimately holds Obama's statements and actions to a standard that McCain himself cannot possibly meet. The latter course might be enough to fool some low-information voters, but those folks aren't paying attention yet anyway, and in the mean time, opinion leaders in the media and blogosphere -- who are crucial to the survival of the McCain brand -- are going to see right through McCain. You can't become perceived as the candidate of the "high road" by taking a short cut on the low road. It just won't work.

I suggest that McCain read Mark Halperin's advice from last week, particularly:

14. Recognize that gimmicks ... are seen as just that — gimmicks. ...

17. Avoid personalizing your disdain for Obama. ...

22. Protect the McCain Brand at all costs – it is the only thing that gives you a chance to win!!

More on the big blog move

By Brendan Loy

In anticipation of the imminent end of this blog -- and redirection of its traffic to a new, weekly blog -- I figured I should give y'all a little more detail on what's happening.

Although I've focused on the weekly blog in discussing this issue, I'm actually replacing "Irish Trojan in Tennessee" with three separate blogs:

• a weekly blog, named "Hopefully Considered";
• a photoblog, named "Light and High Beauty";
• and a moblog, named "Not All Those Who Wander Are Lost."

Yes, the latter two titles are both Lord of the Rings references. :) As for "Hopefully Considered," it is, as I explained before, a reference to my Papa Loy's old newspaper column. I appreciated all of your suggestions, some of which were quite good, but I ultimately decided that I liked my original idea best. (The subtitle is "Brendan Loy's Weekly Musings," adapted from David K.'s suggestion. I decided to drop the "Irish Trojan" moniker altogether, though it's still referenced, at least for now, in the new blogs' sidebars.)

All three new blogs are powered by Blogger and hosted on Blogspot's servers, but with domain redirection to make them look like they're on my server. Thus, the URLs -- which are already active, though the blogs are still works-in-progress -- are weekly.brendanloy.com, photo.brendanloy.com, and moblog.brendanloy.com. (Regular readers may want to bookmark those.)

The major change tonight, aside from some final tweaks to make the blogs ready for prime time, will be that www.brendanloy.com, blog.brendanloy.com, and www.irishtrojan.com -- all of which currently point here -- will instead redirect to weekly.brendanloy.com.

You may be wondering why on earth I'm replacing one blog with three blogs (or four, if you count the Linklog, which is a "companion" to the weekly blog; or five, if you count my Pajamas Media hurricane blogging), when the whole purpose of this switch is to cut back on the time I spend blogging. I know it's a bit counterintuitive. But I actually think it'll work well, when you consider my twin goals of: 1) spending less time blogging, while 2) continuing to have outlets for the types of blogging that I can do without eating up all my free time.

Somebody get this guy a latte

By Brendan Loy

Remember Tom Buffenbarger, the machinists' union blowhard who unleashed a hilariously unhinged anti-Obama rant on Hillary Clinton's behalf during her post-Wisconsin-primary rally back in February? I'll refresh your memory:

[During his speech introducing Clinton,] Buffenbarger derisively dismissed Obama as a mere "wunderkind," a "man in love with the microphone," and "a poet, not a fighter." He repeatedly and pointedly called him "the junior senator from Illinois" (as if Hillary isn't the junior senator from New York?). He compared Obama to "Janus, the two-faced Roman god of ancient times." And then he really got going:

"The Barack Show is playing to rave reviews, sold out on college campus after college campus, standing-room-only crowds to hear his silver-tongued oration. Hope! Change! Yes, we can! Give me a break! I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius-driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust-fund babies crowding in to hear him speak! This guy won't last a round against the Republican attack machine!"

... Buffenbarger [also made the] blatantly anti-intellectual argument -- repeated twice -- that Obama can't "fight" for the working class because he was "the editor of the Harvard Law Review." I guess Hillary's stint as an editor of the Yale Review of Law and Social Action establishes her credentials as a real union stiff?

Buffenbarger blustered so buffoonishly that I proposed a new verb to describe his actions: "to buffenbarger," meaning "to engage in an inappropriately vitriolic attack on a member of one's own political party." (TPM Cafe contributor David Schlitt had a similar idea.)

Well, it turns out ol' Tom is still buffenbargering after all these months:

Now is not the right time for the [International Association of Machinists] to endorse Senator Barack Obama... Our members feel the economy squeezing their family finances for every last dime, every single week ... But those meat and potato issues have not found a place in the message frame developed by Senator Obama's campaign. To us, hope and change are not antidotes to the economic pressures blue-collar families face... In the Machinists Union, a predominately blue-collar union, the impression continues to grow that Senator Barack Obama could care less about folks like us.

McCain-Buffenbarger '08! ;)

Thank you, Brendan...

By Joe Loy

...for all your hyperactively-excellent :} work on This incarnation of the ongoing Brendanblog; and in its Next Generation may you compile a tomorrow worthy of all the yesterdays (but less time-consuming :).

Thank you too, for the honor of having been Included on your suspicious auspiscious roster of usual suspects distinguished Guestbloggers ;]. The opportunity to Ventilate my odd opinions (and in my Own peculiar diction, unpasteurized! :) has been Important to me. Seriously, it has.

You're a Good one, old Kiddoe. / And now (as Nana Loy would say:) ~ Onward & Upward!

Love,
~ Dad

A last guest blogging

By dcl

Brendan said that if you needed to post something best do it now, before it's too late...

So I think, as guest blogs, we all need to make sure we get any and all picking on Brendan take care of and wrapped up before he shuts us all down for good. Like recalling the guy that for months kept calling him Brenda... Or the fact that he still, yes still, wears Velcro shoes (well, last I knew anyway, please Becky, tell me you've fixed this?)... I imagine his daughter will be lacing up her own shoes properly long before Brendan... (Update: In comments, Brendan tells us he is now wearing proper lace up trainers, so I suppose we can't tease him about that anymore.) Anyway, it appears it is last call, so I say we get on with it for a nice good showing these last 20 ish hours.

Really, I'm thinking a good and proper roast for a nice send off...

Update: Or just, you know, say fair thee well and thank you, if that's more your fancy. (Just remember, odd sentence constructions are encouraged.)

One day more

By Brendan Loy

I've been working hard this weekend on the back-end tasks necessary to make the big blog switch happen Monday night, and I think I'll be able to do it on schedule. So, sometime after 7:30 PM EDT, this blog will disappear, and will be replaced with my weekly blog (and my photoblog... and a linklog... and a new "moblog"...).

I'll save the details of the new blog(s) for later, but I wanted to mention this now so you're all aware. Guestbloggers, if you have anything you've been itching to say, today would be the day. :) And readers, if things are a little screwy in this space Monday night, you know why. Hopefully everything will be humming along smoothly by Tuesday morning, albeit in a brave new world wherein I'm no longer a hyperactive blogger.

P.S. Incidentally, I've decided, upon reflection, to drop the "Irish Trojan" moniker from both the titles and subtitles of the new blogs. The sidebar of the weekly blog will still mention my USC and Notre Dame affiliations, and that I used to blog as the "Irish Trojan," but officially speaking, these are my final 24 hours blogging as the "Irish Trojan."

They like WALL·E, they really like WALL·E!

By Brendan Loy

I haven't really been paying any attention to the hype for WALL·E, the Disney/Pixar film that opened Friday, but it's getting absolutely rave reviews from critics -- a 96% "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes! -- to the point where, for example, it made the Wall Street Journal's critic sound veritably Obamaesque in his gushing:

The first half hour of "WALL-E" is essentially wordless, and left me speechless. This magnificent animated feature from Pixar starts on such a high plane of aspiration, and achievement, that you wonder whether the wonder can be sustained. But yes, it can. ...

[T]he film stands as a stunning tour de force. The director has described it as his love letter to the golden era of sci-fi films that enchanted him as a kid in the 1970s. It is certainly that, in hearts and spades. Beyond that, though, it's a love letter to the possibilities of the movie medium, and a dazzling demonstration of how computers can create a photorealistic world -- in this case a ruined world of mysterious majesty -- that leaves literal reality in the dust. ... I must drop my inhibitions about dropping the M word -- especially since I've already used magnificent -- and call "WALL-E" the masterpiece that it is.

See also TNR's Christopher Orr:

For over a dozen years now, the best name in American film has been Pixar. No movie star, no director, no writer, producer, or studio approaches its level of consistent excellence. Even Pixar's weaker offerings (A Bug's Life, Cars, and--in my moderately heretical view--Finding Nemo) have exceptional depth and texture, moral as well as visual. And its best efforts (Toy Story, The Incredibles) are simply transcendent, rivaling the finest live-action films in sophistication and sentiment.

Pixar's newest movie, WALL·E, is firmly in the latter tier, and quite possibly at the top of it. It is, in a word, a marvel, a film that recalls in equal measure Hollywood's most evocative future visions--Blade Runner and Brazil, E.T. and 2001--and the silent intimacies of Buster Keaton and Charlie Chaplin. It is a story about love and loneliness, perseverance and triumph, the possibilities and pitfalls of human existence. That this story is told by way of the exploits of a tiny, faceless robot only makes it more extraordinary.

Wow. I guess I'll have to go see it.

Incidentally, speaking of movies, I finally saw Charlie Wilson's War; Becky and I watched it Friday night on DVD, having rented it from Blockbuster. It's really good, mostly because Tom Hanks and Philip Seymour Hoffman freakin' rock. Watching their witty banter -- fueled also by great screenwriting, by the way -- was just an absolute joy. It's amazing how much you can accomplish in a movie, with apparent effortlessness, when you've got great actors playing the key roles. For a film that didn't exactly have an elaborate or involved plot, it never seemed to drag at all. It was thoroughly enjoyable from start to finish. (Becky, who hates Julia Roberts, thought she was poorly cast and outclassed by her co-stars, and that she brought the movie down a notch. I agree that she was the weakest link, but I don't think she particularly hurt the movie.) If you haven't seen it, you should; it's a great film.

Uga is dead, long live Uga

By Brendan Loy

Uga VI, the mascot of the Georgia Bulldogs since 1999, has died.

He will be buried alongside his predecessors, Uga I through V, in a vault inside the football stadium. And he will of course be replaced by Uga VII.

I'm not a Georgia fan, obviously, but Uga (pronounced "uh-guh") is pretty freakin' cool. Not as cool as Traveler, of course, but cool nonetheless. R.I.P., Uga VI.

N.C. says no to WTF

By Brendan Loy

If you're a North Carolina resident, and you're offended by your own license plate because it begins with the letters "WTF," you can get it replaced for free.

It seems that DMV officials "learned last year the common acronym stands for a vulgar phrase in e-mail and cell phone text messages." Heh. No word on whether the initial discovery of this fact was met with an expression of incredulous disbelief -- for instance, "STFU!"

Coming soon: the N.C. DMV discovers the hidden meaning of "POS" and various other three-letter combinations, and decides to stop making such a BFD out of this sort of BS.

Ugh, powder blue

By Brendan Loy

Clinton and Obama wore (nearly) matching outfits at their Unity event this afternoon: her pantsuit and his tie were both, according to Politico's color-spectrum analysis, powder blue.

Powder blue, of course, used to be a UCLA school color, back when I was at USC. But the Bruins switched in 2003 to a different shade of blue, so I guess I can forgive the Dems for their use of what I've always considered a rather distasteful shade of an otherwise fine color. Still... for future reference, I'd recommend either Notre Dame blue or Newington blue. :)

Anyway, here are some more photos from the Obama-Clinton rally in Unity.

Clinton, Obama join together in Unity

By Brendan Loy

Literally.

Around midday today, the former Democratic rivals will make their first joint public appearance since she dropped out of the race -- and the event will be held in Unity, a tiny town in western New Hampshire where Obama and Clinton each received exactly 107 votes* in the January 8 primary.

Here's a quick primer on Unity, from Wikipedia:

Unity is a town in Sullivan County, New Hampshire, United States. The population was 1,530 at the 2000 census and an estimated 1,715 six years later. The town includes the villages of East Unity, Quaker City, and West Unity. ... The racial makeup of the town was 99.35% White, 0.07% African American, 0.13% Asian, and 0.46% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 0.72% of the population.

The percentages from the 2000 census indicate that Unity had literally one black person, two Asians, seven mixed-race individuals, and eleven Latinos. Oh, and 1,509 non-Hispanic whites. Heh.

Anyway, here's an AP article about how Unity is gearing up for today's big event. It opens with the obligatory quote from a local old lady: "I don't remember having any presidential candidates here in my time," says 84-year-old Roberta Callum. And then there's this, regarding the expected crowd of 2,500: "Locals say the last time there was a crowd that big was for a 1970s performance by folk singer Arlo Guthrie." Heh.

The Concord Monitor is unimpressed with the meta-pun that today's event represents:

[N]o one would have mistaken these two policy wonks for the jokesters of the New Hampshire presidential primary.

Nonetheless, nearly six months after the local vote, Obama and Clinton return today, going to extreme lengths for a corny gag.

They're coming to Unity, N.H. - get it? Unity? It's a place where they split the local Democratic vote, 107-107. It's a place so far out in the boondocks that voters and reporters will require shuttle buses from Sunapee, for Pete's sake.

Ah yes, the bustling metropolis of Sunapee -- population 3,055! And it's only 31 minutes away! Heh.

Individual right to bear arms vindicated; still no right to arm bears

By Brendan Loy

The Supreme Court is expected to rule very shortly on, essentially, what the Second Amendment means, in the Washington, D.C. handgun ban case, D.C. vs. Heller.

SCOTUSblog is liveblogging.

UPDATE: By a 5-4 vote, with no plurality or concurrences -- i.e., the five justices in the majority all agreed on the same rationale -- the "Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm." (That quote is from SCOTUSblog, not from the opinion.)

UPDATE 2: Here's the opinion and the dissents (PDF). Scalia wrote the majority opinion, which was joined by the other four conservative justices. There were two separate dissents, one by Stevens and one by Breyer; each dissent was joined by the other three liberal justices. So, like I said, a clear 5-4 split, with no muddying of the waters by multiple plurality opinions and such.

If you don't want to read the whole thing, some relevant quotes from the majority opinion can be found here. And here's an initial analysis from SCOTUSblog's Lyle Denniston -- although, as the Volokh Conspiracy's Orin Kerr says, "the details of the opinion are critical; it will take a bit of time to read the decision to get a sense of what it means."

Help me name my new blog!

By Brendan Loy

All right, I know I've been dragging my feet on this, but I have indeed decided -- as I alluded last Friday -- to try out the weekly blog format. My intention is to make the switch on Tuesday. (I figure July 1, the halfway point of the calendar year, is a good arbitrary date to make such a change.)

However, the timing of the switch may change, depending on how much free time I have this weekend. There's a lot of back-end stuff that I need to do, both to close down this blog and to set up the new blog. If I don't make the switch on Tuesday, it probably won't happen until July 14 or thereabouts, because Becky and I will be traveling over July 4 weekend, so I won't have much free time again until the weekend of the 12th-13th.

Anyway, I need help from y'all on something. In switching from this "hyperactive" blog to a new, weekly blog, I want to make a clear, clean break by giving the blog a new name. I figure the subtitle could include the phrase "Irish Trojan," in order to maintain some semblance of "brand" continuity, but I want the title of the blog to be something different -- and a more drastic difference than my switch last year from "The Irish Trojan's Blog" to "Irish Trojan in Tennessee." I want a real new name.

Ideally, the new name would in some way emphasize the blog's weekly/occasional nature. But at the same time, I don't want it to be something totally pedestrian, like "Brendan's Weekly Blog" or whatever. The problem is, I'm terrible at coming up with good, non-pedestrian ideas for things like blog names (as the "Ably Nerd On" fiasco demonstrated). So, I need your help. I need some suggestions for what I should call the new blog!

So far, the only decent idea I've had is to call it "Hopefully Considered," which was the name of my Papa Loy's old weekly newspaper column. (The subtitle, I think, would be "The Irish Trojan's Weekly Blog." So, in toto, the title and subtitle would read "Hopefully Considered: The Irish Trojan's Weekly Blog.") But although imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I'm not sure I like the idea of simply copying exactly the name of Papa's column. Something that alludes to "Hopefully Considered," without being precisely the same name, would be great... but I can't think of anything good.

Don't limit yourself to spin-offs of "Hopefully Considered," though. That's just one idea. Any and all other ideas are welcome! Please, submit 'em in comments, and please feel free to comment on other people's ideas as well. This isn't a democracy, exactly, but at the same time, I'm definitely curious to know what my "regulars" think. 

Politics as usual?

By Brendan Loy

Earlier today, I read this article by Bob Beckel making the strategic case for an Obama-Clinton ticket, and I found myself almost beginning to doubt the ferocity of my oft-stated belief that such a choice would be "wolf-face crazy." Then I read the little biographical blurb at the bottom:

Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale’s 1984 presidential campaign.

LOL! And Obama should take this guy's advice on political strategy, why exactly? ;)

Meanwhile, the Washington Post's Dan Balz argues that, so far, McCain vs. Obama is politics as usual:

Whatever substance they may contain has been buried in negative counterattacks from the opposing camp, designed to turn ideas into stereotypes and candidates into caricatures. In the hands of Obama's advisers, McCain is nothing more than the third coming of President Bush. To McCain's staff, Obama is merely a liberal, naive, arrogant extension of what Democrats have been offering for years.

Gone in the early stages of this campaign is any sense of the uniqueness of the two nominees. McCain is certainly no garden-variety Republican and the historic possibilities of Obama's candidacy cannot be overstated. But those realities have been submerged beneath a tactical shouting match that feeds the cable culture of contemporary politics.

Don't blame the media for this. The campaigns have deliberately adopted postures of hyper-aggressiveness to set the early tone. The testosterone levels appear extremely high. No charge however small or incidental can go unanswered. No proposal, no matter how innocuous or provocative, can be discussed calmly or intelligently.

That led a McCain surrogate to respond to Obama's comments on the rights of terrorist detainees, a topic on which reasonable people can differ, as "delusional." It led to an Obama surrogate to describe as "stupid" the positions McCain has taken on the Iraq war, though it is clearly arguable that the surge strategy has helped to reduce violence and U.S. casualties. ...

Of all the candidates who sought the presidency this year, McCain and Obama seemed the least likely to fall so quickly into old habits. The question is whether the opening weeks are a true reflection of their characters and the kind of campaigns they intended to run or a temporary departure.

(Hat tip: Halperin.)

A Dodd scandal, and a Courant catastrophe

By Brendan Loy

The Waterbury Republican-American evidently does not believe in God and Senator Dodd. Well, maybe the former, but certainly not the latter. :) In an editorial Monday, the Rep-Am's editorial board calls Dodd "Tammany Hall's senior senator" and scolds the national media -- as well as, in a subsequent editorial, the Hartford Courant -- for failing to more vigorously cover "the sweetheart mortgages he got from Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Nozilo." (Countrywide is described as "the Enron of subprime mortgages.") "This scandal has legs," the editors assert.

I haven't followed this at all, so I have no idea whether it's a big deal; I just saw the link on InstaPundit, and since it involves Connecticut's, er, other senator, I figured it deserved a post.

Meanwhile, in other Connecticut news -- and speaking of the Courant -- the Nutmeg State's paper of record is eliminating 60 newsroom staffers and reducing the number of news pages in the paper per week from 273 to 206. Here's the memo to staff. (Hat tip: my dad.)

It's times like these I'm really happy I went into law instead of journalism.

On the surge

By Brendan Loy

Ross Douthat has a good post about Iraq and the surge.

Poll shows Obama way ahead nationally; Barr, Nader hurt McCain

By Brendan Loy

The L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll finds the following national breakdown in a four-way race: Obama 48%, McCain 33%, Nader 4%, Barr 3%, Undecided 10%. Even if we assume that most of those 10% will eventually vote for McCain, in accordance with the Bradley Effect, Obama's still clearly winning.

What's particularly intriguing is that, although Nader does slightly better than Barr, their combined effect hurts McCain far more than Obama. When only two candidates are mentioned, it's Obama 49%, McCain 37%. Another 4% volunteer their intention to vote for "someone else," while 10% remain undecided. The poll write-up explains:

Eighty-seven percent of McCain’s voters would stay with him [in a four-way race featuring Nader and Barr], but 11% would vote for another candidate, with 2% undecided.  Almost all of Obama’s voters (95%) would still stay with him even when the race opened up to include more candidates.

More specifically, when the two-way race becomes a four-way race, 5% of McCain voters switch to Barr, and 6% switch to Nader, while 2% say they "don't know" how they'd vote. By contrast, just 2% of Obama supporters switch to Nader, 0% switch to Barr, 2% "don't know," and -- just to prove that you can always find a tiny segment of poll respondents who'll say things that don't make any sense whatsoever -- 1% switch to McCain! (Remember, he's an option in both scenarios; why anyone would vote for Obama in a two-way race, but McCain in a four-way race, is beyond me.)

Other interesting findings:

• "More than 80% of Obama voters said they were enthusiastic about their candidate, including 47% who are very enthusiastic.  It’s another matter for McCain.  Just under half (45%) of McCain voters said they were enthusiastic about voting for him, but 51% were not enthused about the prospect."

• "While almost a fifth of moderate Republicans would support Obama, just 7% of moderate Democrats would support the Republican candidate.  Overall, almost four out of five liberals support Obama, just 58% of conservatives support McCain."

• "[M]en are somewhat divided -- 40% for Obama to 37% for McCain -- but women give the Democratic candidate a 25 point lead (54% to 29%)."

• Among whites, it's McCain 39%, Obama 39%, Nader 5%, Barr 4%, someone else 2%, undecided 11%. (If Bradley/Wilder holds, McCain will get the bulk of those undecideds in the end.) Among blacks, Obama gets "nine out of 10" or thereabouts, while McCain gets just 2%, and 2% are undecided. Obama wins 61-23 among "other ethnic groups."

State-by-state polls, it should be noted, have been trending in the same direction. Five Thirty Eight, which was projecting an extremely close race as recently as a few weeks ago, now has Obama winning 344 to 194 in the Electoral College, with a map that roughly resembles Clinton's win over Dole in 1996.

Caveat: It's still very early, and polls at this point can be extremely misleading, arguably to the point of meaninglessness. It's clear that Obama is doing very well right now; it's not at all clear what, if anything, that means for November.

P.S. It should also be noted that, although some pre-election polls in 2000 showed him in the high single digits, Nader ultimately got just 2.73% that year, and in 2004 he managed a paltry 0.38%. It seems highly unlikely, then, that in a high-stakes election offering such a stark issue-based contrast as Obama vs. McCain, he'll ultimately get anywhere near 4% of the vote. In fact, given that Obama is practically a liberal's dream candidate (at least as plausible Democratic nominees go), I find it hard to believe that Nader will do better than the 0.38% he got in '04, when he was running against the far less dreamy John Kerry. (On the other hand, I suppose Nader's numbers could be boosted by the "racist liberal" vote -- folks who won't vote for McCain because he's a Republican, but won't vote for Obama because he's black.)

The only way I can see Nader breaking 1% is if he truly does pick up a whole bunch of erstwhile McCain voters -- and that itself seems highly unlikely, given how anathema his views are to anyone who is remotely conservative or libertarian-ish. My guess is that those 6% of McCain voters who currently gravitate to Nader in a four-way race are simply disaffected with their candidate, and are casting a "protest vote" for the third-party candidate whose name they recognize, namely Nader. But once they start paying more attention, I'd imagine that most of 'em will realize Nader is really not their kind of guy. Nader is a liberal candidate; it's hard to believe he can build a sizable support base that's based fundamentally on anything other than liberal voters.

In the end, most of the disaffected conservatives/Republicans will either stay home, vote for Barr, or hold their noses and vote for McCain. The "conservatives for Nader" movement is about as plausible as the "elderly Jews for Buchanan" movement in Palm Beach County eight years ago. ;)

What about Zimbabwe?

By Brendan Loy

TNR's James Kirchick asks an intriguing question: "Will the Candidates Recognize Morgan Tsvangirai as President of Zimbabwe?"

Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, is the legitimately elected president of Zimbabwe. Or at least he should be. He won that country's presidential election (and his party won its parliamentary election) on March 29th, a victory that has been denied to him and his colleagues over the past three months as Robert Mugabe has murdered nearly 100 opposition supporters, tortured many more, and driven thousands from their homes. A week after the election, the Zimbabwean junta announced that Tsvangirai did not win an outright majority, thus forcing a runoff scheduled for this Friday. On Sunday, however, Tsvangirai announced that he was dropping out of the election, stating that "we cannot stand there and watch people being killed for the sake of power."

So here's a question for Senators Obama and McCain. Back in April, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer declared Tsvangirai the winner of the March 29th election, and certified that he won over 50% of the vote. Recognition of him as the duly elected president of Zimbabwe -- with all of the diplomatic measures that would imply, specifically spelled out today in a New York Sun editorial -- should have been forthcoming, yet the State Department has been reluctant to go that far. With Tsvangirai hiding in the Dutch Embassy for fear of his life, will either of you call upon the United States to recognize him as the elected president of Zimbabwe?

Sounds good to me. But wouldn't that constitute "regime change"?

Mismanaging the world

By Brendan Loy

"John McCain and the Republicans will lose if this campaign is about issues. They only mismanaged the economy and mismanaged the hurricane and mismanaged the budget and mismanaged the war and mismanaged the hunt for Osama bin Laden and mismanaged the world." --John Brummett, Arkansas News Bureau. (Hat tip: Ben Smith.)

P.S. Meanwhile, on an unrelated note, the Obama campaign takes some MSM heat for its less than entirely progressive attitude toward the American Muslim community. Money quote from Congressman Keith Ellison (he's the guy who was actually photographed being sworn in with his hand on the Koran), regarding Obama's aggressive denials of those pesky "smears" alleging that he's a Muslim: "A lot of us are waiting for him to say that there's nothing wrong with being a Muslim, by the way." More here and here.

Fortune's Favour

By Brendan Loy

The new Great Big Sea album is available on iTunes. Woohoo!

UPDATE: So far, so good; I've listened to tracks 1-4 and 7. "Banks of Newfoundland" is, as I thought it might be, quite dissimilar from (and probably more authentic than!) the Irish Rovers' version; the lyrics are roughly the same, but they're set to a completely different tune. It doesn't have the same hairy-chested, belt-it-out feel as the Rovers' version (or, for that matter, as some other GBS songs like "General Taylor," "Captain Kidd," "The Old Black Rum," etc.), but I still like it, I think. I'll have to listen to it a bunch more times to decide for sure. :)

One song I definitely like is track #3, "England," which contains the lyric that gave rise to the album's title, "Fortune's Favour." It's a very neat little ditty about the first English settlers who came to Newfoundland (or "the New Found Land," as the island was originally known, and as the song initially describes it). "England" has good lyrics, beautiful harmonies, and some nice little nuanced touches in the way the song evolves and the way the boys sing it.

P.S. Appropriately enough -- and, come to think of it, this is probably intentional on Great Big Sea's part -- today is the anniversary of the date in 1497 when John Cabot landed in Newfoundland*, becoming the first European to since the Vikings to reach North America's shores. (Hat tip: My Adversaria.)

*Probably. Various other locations, including Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, claim he landed there rather than in Newfoundland. But it was most likely in Newfoundland, at Cape Bonavista.

Big Brother bans hats in Yorkshire pubs

By Brendan Loy

You can take our lives, but you can never take our silly British hats!!!

Vice President Biden?

By Brendan Loy

Joe Biden: hell yeah, I'd be Obama's veep!

As I've said before, I think Biden is a great choice in theory -- an experienced hand, sensible on foreign affairs, forceful on the war on terror, etc. In practice, he's a bit trickier: he's as slippery and slimy a Washington insider as they come, which doesn't exactly jive with Obama's message of change, and he has a bad habit of putting his foot in his mouth. (See: "articulate and clean," Indians at 7-Eleven, etc.)

Still, since I ultimately rank national security and foreign policy as my #1 voting priority, I'd be reassured by Obama picking Biden. I kind of doubt it will happen, though, especially now that he seems almost to be campaigning for it.

Holy stone and sand

By Brendan Loy

Great Big Sea's new album, Fortune's Favour, debuts tomorrow -- and I just noticed that Track 7 is "Banks of Newfoundland," which happens to be the first Newfoundland song that I ever learned! The chorus, as it's sung by the Irish Rovers (iTunes link here), goes like this:

We'll rub her 'round and scrub her 'round
With holy stone and sand,
And we'll say farewell to the Virgin Rocks
On the Banks of Newfoundland!

My father had (and presumably still has) a vinyl record of the 1969 Irish Rovers album The Life of the Rover, which had "Banks of Newfoundland" on it, and he would play it frequently on our old record player when I was a little kid. It was one of my favorites; I used to love singing that chorus when I was, oh, maybe 5 years old. :) I was also a big fan of the end of the final verse -- "And to the docks, they come in flocks / The pretty girls will stand / Sayin' it's snugger with me than it is at sea / On the banks of Newfoundland!" -- though of course I had no idea what those lyrics meant. ;) In the words of Grandpa Loomer, albeit referring to a different bawdy Irish tune that I famously sung at an even earlier age: "What kind of song is that for a three-year-old?" Heh.

Anyway, as is typical for traditional Irish/Maritime music, there are various different versions of the lyrics floating around, and probably different tunes, too. The snippet of an early Great Big Sea demo of "Banks of Newfoundland" that's played in Canada.com Webisode 11, Part 1, from 5:32 to 6:20, certainly sounds very different from the version I know. (Hat tip: Between The Rock And A Hard Place.) So I really don't know what Track 7 of Fortune's Favour will sound like. But I can't wait to find out! The prospect of hearing my favorite band belt out the hearty chorus of a song that I've known for almost my entire life, a childhood favorite, makes me even more excited than I already was for tomorrow's big debut.

I'll definitely be using a portion of one of my Father's Day presents from Becky -- an iTunes gift certificate -- to buy the album tomorrow. Great Big Sea rocks!

P.S. After the jump, I've posted the lyrics of the Irish Rovers' version of "Banks of Newfoundland," since I couldn't find that particular lyrical rendition online anywhere.

George Carlin dies at age 71

By David K.

Comedian George Carlin, whose off-color comedy caused him to run afoul of the FCC and led to a landmark Supreme Court case on decency and broadcasting, passed away from heart failure on Sunday in Los Angeles.

AP: Panic!!!

By Brendan Loy

The Associated Press says everything seemingly is spinning out of control.

I blame George Bush the media global warming Al Gore the Clintons illegal immigrants Barack Hussein Obama teh gays the Jews Karl Rove Halliburton Canada.

R.I.P., Robbie

By Brendan Loy

I'm afraid I have some very sad news to report. A few days ago, while we were out west visiting Arizona and Colorado, our beloved greyhound, Robbie, died unexpectedly and suddenly of bloat. He was two months shy of seven years old.

It happened overnight last Sunday night at the kennel where he was staying. It wasn't the kennel's fault; bloat strikes rapidly and without warning, and there was no indication anything was wrong until too late. I got a call early Monday morning giving me the news. I didn't mention it here on the blog until now because I wanted to wait till I had had time to put together a proper photographic tribute. I've now done so; you can view 186 pictures and 12 videos of Robbie, from 2004 through 2008, on Flickr. (Slideshow here.)

The photo gallery traces not just Robbie's life, but our lives over the last four-plus years: getting our graduate degrees at ASU and Notre Dame, moving in and out of various apartments, and criss-crossing the country by car, from Mesa to South Bend, then to Glendale and back to South Bend, and finally to Knoxville. In each place, we've found new places for Robbie to play, from Mesa's Quail Run dog park, to the tennis court and lawn at South Bend's Clover Ridge apartments, to Jay & Ashley's back yard in Loudon, among others.

And of course, geographic changes haven't been the half of it. Since adopting Robbie from the Arizona Greyhound Rescue in March of '04, Becky and I have gotten engaged, married, and had a baby. We've both earned graduate degrees, and have gone from being 21- and 22-year-old kids to 26-year-old adults. Oh yeah, and I briefly became a national media sensation -- to the point where Robbie himself made the New York Times. :)

Through all these changes, we've had our gentle giant -- our very own "40 mile-an-hour couch potato" -- as a constant presence in our lives. Needless to say, he will be sorely missed.

Much more after the jump.

Mars probe discovers ice

By Brendan Loy

It's official: there's ice on Mars.

The end of all things -- or not

By Brendan Loy

Two weeks ago, I announced that I intend to close down this blog on July 20 -- one month from today. But, like Frodo standing at the edge of Sammath Naur, looking down into the fires of Mount Doom, I find myself wavering and wondering whether I should "choose to do what I came to do," if you will.

In my June 6 post, I mentioned that Becky had initially suggested an alternative solution to my bloggy dilemma: I could simply "cut back drastically... by maintaining the current blog but committing to do just one post per week." But I explained that I had rejected this idea on the grounds that it "wouldn't work" (because I'd cheat) and that ultimately, "it wouldn't be desirable" (because "the Irish Trojan community would die a slow and painful death," waning due to bloggy inactivity rather than "go[ing] out while I'm on top").

In comments on the post, however, several readers endorsed the weekly-blog idea. Bea, for instance, wrote, "I like Becky's idea of a weekly column of sorts. So what if you spend a little time every week thinking about the topic and a little time on research? I think it's doable, a great outlet and, hey, the WIFE is ok with this!" Christine also made a compelling case:

Life is about limits and prioritizing and relaxing (oh and a few other things). But if you enjoy having a blog (which I get the feeling you do, as well as your mentioned past blog-like antics), then you really should keep going. Just tweek it. ... I LOVE the idea of a weekly column of sorts. Gives you something to ponder (nothing wrong with that) all week AND an outlet! And your loyal fans have something to look forward to! If something is particularly intriguing to you, you can blog more on that topic, but I would hope it would allow you to not feel like a slave to brendanloy.com but still give you the freedom to write and get your ideas out there.

If you have a problem with setting limits, then set some (I personally hate limits) but it's kinda like you're throwing the baby out with the bath water ... Life (or blogs) don't have to be all or nothing.

The more I've thought about it, the more I've come around to the idea that a weekly blog might work, provided that I structure it in such a way as to reduce the temptation to "cheat." The goal would be to create basically the same situation that I described with regard to the photoblog: making the new blog so obviously different from the old that I won't "be overly tempted to co-opt it" for the old-style "hyperactive" blogging, because doing so "would be so foreign to the nature of the blog itself."

If I can manage that -- and if I can prevent my blogging "schedule" from feeling like an obligation or assignment -- then I think a weekly blog would be worth doing, and preferable to the alternative of quitting cold turkey. In other words, I am increasingly tempted to declare: "I will not do this deed. The Blog is mine!" :) But for me, unlike for Frodo, I think this actually might be the correct decision. (And hopefully I won't lose a finger over it!)

For one thing, blogging weekly would be a new challenge, as it would effectively force me to hone a very different writing style: the lengthy, essay-ish, often multi-topic blog post (a la Lileks's "Bleat"), as opposed to the clipped immediacy of hyperactive blogging, usually about one topic at a time (but many per day). To keep things flowing, interesting, and adequately focused in such a format can be difficult, and trying to become as good at writing in that style as I've become in the current format would be a worthwhile endeavor unto itself, methinks.

Furthermore, although my audience would undoubtedly shrink markedly, many of the die-hards would presumably stick around, and that'd be nice; I'd hate to lose touch with the Nadines and kcatnds of the world. :) Also, maintaining a textual blogospheric presence would mean that I won't have to improvise something -- like temporarily co-opting the photoblog -- in the event I'm caught up in breaking news, or otherwise have a burning desire to share my thoughts on a particular topic with, say, InstaPundit's readers. I'd still have a public blog for such things; I'd just use it less often.

But perhaps most importantly, I'd be following the sage advice of the fourth one:

Make sure that, in addition to dedicating yourself to family, career, and community, you have at least one important outlet that belongs just to YOU, and that speaks to you in a way that nothing else does. In my own life, I have found that kind of independence and release to be vital, not only for my own personal well-being, but for energizing me in a way that allows me to give even more to the people I love.

Or, as Alasdair put it, "be careful that you don't make a void in your Life without having something useful and positive with which to fill said void."

The reality, as I said in my June 6 is post, is that "I'll still need some way of expressing myself, of publishing my thoughts to the world, of letting loose the occasional rant; I've always had, and needed, such an outlet, at least since seventh grade." My original thought was to satisfy this need by way of the photoblog and Flickr, my Pajamas Media hurricane-blogging, and perhaps the occasional Facebook post. But if I'm going to post bloggy rants on Facebook anyway, why not channel that aspect of my creative energy in a more productive direction by still maintaining a public blog, just on a weekly basis? With the right amount of structure and discipline, I think the latter solution is better than the former.

Crucially, the calendar gives me time to do a "trial run" of this weekly blog idea, before the impending changes in our lives. If it works, I can keep doing it; if it fails -- whether because I can't resist the temptation to "cheat," or because the scheduled nature of it (most likely, I would try to blog every Sunday) makes blogging feel less fun and more obligatory, or for some other reason -- then I can go back to the original, cold-turkey plan.

I haven't yet finally decided what to do; I'm going to sleep on it this weekend. But if I do decide to switch (on a trial basis) to a weekly blog format, I will actually move up the date of this blog's retirement -- most likely to June 30 -- and start up my weekly blog (which would be a new blog, separate and distinct from this one) in early July. That would give me time to test out the concept and see how it works.

I will, of course, keep y'all informed about what I decide to do. In the mean time, your feedback is much appreciated. One big question for my regulars: do you anticipate that you would continue to regularly read my blog if it were updated only once a week, provided of course that those weekly updates are interesting and worth reading? Also, in terms of keeping the discussion going and the community alive, would it make a difference if I disabled purely anonymous commenting, such that you'd at least need an OpenID account, or perhaps a WordPress.com account, in order to comment?

[Bumped from 12:07 PM to 5:00 PM. -ed.]

A dead heat in Georgia?!

By Brendan Loy

Ladies and gentlemen, we have statistical evidence of the Bob Barr effect! A new poll in the blood-red state of Georgia, where the Libertarian nominee is from, shows a dead heat: McCain 44%, Obama 43%, Barr 6%. Wow!

Now, a major grain of salt is called for here. It's very early, and I seriously, seriously doubt these numbers will ultimately hold up. But this sort of polling data (see also: close races in Alaska, North Carolina) can't make the McCain people happy. Indeed, I bet they're getting some serious heartburn from the combination of: 1) the recent state polling numbers generally, which show a definite Obama bounce in red, blue and purple states alike, and 2) the noises Obama is making (backed with action) about competing in states like Texas and Indiana.

With regard to Georgia and point #2, the real issue is that, in light of Obama's decision to change his mind and reject public financing -- a tactical no-brainer, notwithstanding its dubiousness in principle -- he can afford to put his (abundant) money where his mouth is, and at least force McCain to waste precious resources in these states.

P.S. His mom's white! He's from America! Heh.

Colorado and Arizona

By Brendan Loy

Over on my photoblog, I've posted pictures from my trip to Phoenix and Denver.

We're back safe & sound in Knoxville, by the way. Loyette was once again a champion flyer -- though I think we'll be paying for the disruptions to her schedule in the form of weekend fussiness.

How to be a bandwagon fan

By Brendan Loy

SportsPickle's DJ Gallo writes a handy guide to being a bandwagon fan for ESPN's Page 2. Money quote: "don't let [people] anywhere near your car. They might get the wrong impression when they see that your bumper is covered in Red Sox, Yankees, Lakers, Celtics, Cowboys, Patriots, USC football and Duke basketball stickers. As though it's your fault that you have deep, childhood ties to all those teams!" Heh.

Speaking of which, hey, how 'bout those Cubs? ;)

Black hawk downtown

By Brendan Loy

I mentioned yesterday that I noticed a bunch of military helicopters flying over downtown Denver on Monday night, and wondered what the heck was going on. Turns out I wasn't alone. The Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News report that the city police department received numerous calls from members of the public concerned about the aerial activity. Not to worry, folks were told: this was simply "routine" training related to the war on terror, not a response to, or preparation for, any particular threat or crisis.

Here's some video of the choppers doing their thing:

More detail from the Rocky Mountain News:

The exercise by special ops troops, supported by Denver police SWAT teams and firefighters, is intended to prepare for any terrorism threat in a "realistic urban environment," said Lt. Steve Ruh, a spokesman for the U.S. Special Operations Command, headquartered at MacDill Air Force Base in Florida. ...

"It's all in preparation for anything that could possibly happen with the global war on terrorism," said Ruh, whose command coordinates all the military branches' crack commando units - from Army Rangers to Navy SEALS.

The Special Operations Command calls itself the "Tip of the Spear" against the nation's gravest threats.

Ruh noted that the exercises are conducted in major cities in the U.S., usually at the invitation of the cities, but that doesn't mean those cities are necessarily possible targets for terrorism.

There was apparently conflicting information at first about whether the location of the training is related to the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August, but the official line appears to be that it is not. Meanwhile, there was some controversy about whether the proper notifications were made:

"The federal agencies sponsoring the ongoing multi-agency training in Denver agreed to make the proper notifications regarding the exercises to prevent surprise and inconvenience to Denver residents," [Mayor John] Hickenlooper wrote. "There seems to have been a misunderstanding about the reach and scope of these notifications, and they did not occur in the manner expected by the City.

"Although these exercises are in no way connected to the upcoming Democratic National Convention, Denver officials were well aware that there would be heightened sensitivity to an exercise such as this because of its proximity to the Convention," the mayor continued. "Denver recognizes that these are our federal partners, and we are fortunate that they have chosen Denver for their training exercises. Should there ever be an emergency here that would require federal assistance, they will be familiar with our City and how best to navigate it." ...

"Advance notice was given to the (Denver) civil authorities. We were here as guests," Ruh said. "It would be up to (local authorities) to send it out."

[Denver police Lt. Ron] Saunier said that Defense Department officials asked police to "respond to inquiry only." So he provided a "very generic statement" Monday to police dispatchers in case the public called.

But the official statements were not enough to satisfy some commenters on the Rocky Mountain News website, where the phrase "martial law" appears repeatedly. For example:

This is done to make citizens accustomed to military hardware, and martial law easier to accept. Don't accept it, Posse Commititus puts citizen protection under police authority. Blending police and military is what tin pot dictators do to control their population. ...

just wait until the convention starts, the military, and the local police will be trying out all kinds of toys on the protestors. personally, I cant wait to watch it all unfold on CNN. ...

The military is for wars, domestic protection is up to the police. Bringing the military onto our soil to do the cops' job is martial law, AKA lost liberty ...

This is just great...we now accept the military in our cities...the more we accept this the easier it will be for our government to imprison anyone it deems a "terrorist." We need to fight back NOW ...

[T]he Constitution deems a standing military a threat to freedom...what we need in this country is a militia and for everyone to own a gun...I dont need protection from the big bad terrorists and I don't need blackhawk helicopters flying over our cities...let everyone in this country own a gun with absolutely no restrictions and then we don't need any protection from anybody ...

[T]he first Authorization for Use of Military Force, passed in September 2001 declaring the War on Terror as a war on American soil, the PATRIOT ACT, The Military Authorizations Act, all written to erode our Bill of Rights. These all pave the road to Martial law and suspension of our government. We stand today one national emergency from this possibility. Why do we accept this? ...

The oath of the military is to defend the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. I just hope impending martial law triggers memory of this oath among the current servicemen. I love my country and our constitution, loyal to that document and the people, I work to better it by denouncing the current direction we are headed. ...

Are you ready for martial law? ... We are opening a Pandora's box here. It's fun to play with the hardware...but actually using it domestically is another thing...

We are prepping you for MARTIAL LAW. What are you doing reading anyways, you should be watching the sports games like all the other mindless sheeple who have given up their liberty and freedom for a FALSE Security and who revel in being lied to. Franklin said that YOU deserve neither. So go and vote, doesnt matter to us in the CFR and bildaberg group who OWN both political parties! None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free. Go back to sleep sheeple and dont google CFR or Bildaberg group, its better not to know who controls/owns you! If a nation expects to be ignorant and free it expects what never was and never will be!

Et cetera, et cetera.

(Hat tip: Marty.)

The clock tower and the Moon

By Brendan Loy

Sorry for the lack of posts the last couple of days. I haven't moved up the date of my blog retirement, I promise. :) I've just been super-busy in Denver. And speaking of Denver, here's a cool photo of the D&F clock tower and the Moon last night:

During a previous trip to Denver, it became something of a running joke among Becky, the SHA girls and myself that I was constantly taking pictures of the clock tower. But I think that one's actually pretty neat!

The Moon and clouds weren't the only things in the sky over Denver last night. All evening long, a pair of military helicopters was circling over downtown. They were making a lot of noise, but at some points their lights appeared to be off, as if they were operating in some sort of (admittedly rather ineffective) stealth mode. I have no idea what that was all about ("we're being invaded by Utah," I hypothesized at one point), but it was a little creepy.

Oh, and speaking of, uh, security and stuff: I'm now at the airport waiting for my flight back to Phoenix. This will be my third of four flights in less than a week (Nashville to Phoenix, Phoenix to Denver, Denver to Phoenix, Phoenix to Nashville). So I've been spending a lot of time in airports, and I have a question. It's now been almost two years since the implementation of the "new" security measures involving liquids and gels. Yet all the signs and announcements still talk about these as temporary steps, due to "increased" security. At what point will we end this charade, and acknowledge that these measure