Clinton must not raise the "popular vote" tonight

The last 24 hours have seen an incredibly vigorous guessing game of, "What will Hillary Clinton say tonight?" Here's the New York Times's Adam Nagoruney's take:

Mrs. Clinton’s aides said that, should Mr. Obama cross the line Tuesday night — and be declared at least the presumptive nominee — their candidate would acknowledge his accomplishment, without going so far as to drop out.

That seems quite likely to be true, but in my mind, the big question is, what will she say about her non-concession? Will she make a conciliatory, valedictory speech that's basically mum on her next step, leaving things vague until tomorrow (perhaps at AIPAC) or the next day? Or will she present an affirmative case for her decision to stay in the race, which would almost certainly involve arguing again that "I lead in the popular vote and Senator Obama leads in the delegate count"?

If she does the latter, two major problems crop up immediately. First of all, if her logic is, in essence, "we're tied, because he won more delegates and I won more votes," it's difficult to understand what would change that logic between now and August. The core premise of her argument -- incorrect and illegitimate though it may be -- will remain in place indefinitely; nothing after tonight is going to change the popular-vote math, obviously. So it's hard to see how "he has more delegates, but I have more votes" is an argument for staying in the race tonight but then dropping out later this week. If it's anything at all, it's an argument for going all the way to Denver. (Cue my argument about rhetorical momentum.)

Secondly, even if she does drop out later this week after reiterating her phony "popular vote" argument tonight, she'll have already seriously damaged Obama by implicitly questioning his legitimacy as the nominee on the very night when the party should be starting to formally unify around him. Again, I quote Baltimore Sun columnist Paul Rogat Loeb:

Given the bitterness of so many Hillary Clinton supporters that the woman they thought would be America's first female president will not be, the more they hear the suggestion that Sen. Barack Obama's win is illegitimate, the more likely they are to bolt. If Senator Clinton's voters embrace the story that "a man took it away from a woman," denying her a victory she deserved, they're at risk of staying home come November, or holding back from the volunteering and get-out-the-vote efforts necessary for the Democrats to prevail.

That's why it's so unfortunate that Mrs. Clinton continues to claim that "we are winning the popular vote." Because that statement is a lie - and it undermines every word she has recently spoken about the need for the party to come together. ...

Every time Mrs. Clinton claims she has a popular majority, she's...making it that much more likely that her supporters will stay home in November. If she really wants a united party, she needs to stop, and the superdelegates need to hold her accountable.

In my opinion, making this argument tonight, of all nights, would be absolutely unforgivable. And I bet she'll do it.

Comments

[Jim]

In my opinion, making this argument tonight, of all nights, would be absolutely unforgivable. And I bet she'll do it.

Ha. This is why I read your blog.

[Jim]

(not to say the analysis isn't top notch, but the humorous delivery seals the deal) :)

[Jen]

Brendan, I agree wholeheartedly with your thoughts on Clinton. I've read various theories about the logic behind her actions, but none can account for what seems to be her utter disregard for the best interests of the Democratic party. Her rhetoric is deceptive and shows nothing but contempt for the popular vote that she claims to be courting with so much care. I hope that she doesn't get the nomination for vice president, and that we've seen the last of the Clintons.

Go Obama!!

[Alasdair]

Jen - if Senator Obama allows himself to be the Presidential Nominee on the same ticket where Senator Clinton is the Vice-Presidential Nominee, then he certifies himself as unfit to be President due to insanity just by that act in and of itself ...