AP: Obama clinches nomination!

Breaking news:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House. ...

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

(Hat tip: Becky.)

My initial, gut reaction is that this AP report, which Team Clinton will inevitably describe as "premature," actually increases the chances of Hillary fighting on to the convention. I fear they'll say a bunch of things this afternoon and evening that will make it harder to backtrack and drop out once "effectively clinched" turns into simply "clinched."

On the other hand, Mark Halperin says Hillary "underestimates...the number of her staff and top supporters who will not tolerate her campaign continuing beyond Wednesday – and just how gravely they feel about it." He's probably right, and I may well be wrong about the risk of the Clintons talking themselves into a continued fight. But beware of rhetorical momentum!

UPDATE: TPM's Greg Sargent writes:

The AP is including over a dozen super-dels who privately indicated to the news org that they will ultimately back Obama, should the contest continue, but haven't said so publicly. Not everyone counts private commitments; the Obama campaign, for instance, only includes publicly declared supporters in its super-delegate tally.

So this isn't an official clinching of the nomination, obviously. And indeed, it's really a no-brainer that Obama has reached the magic number when you factor in private commitments. It's highly likely that far more than a dozen have privately signaled support for Obama.

And Politico's Ben Smith weighs in:

Not to be a stickler here, but that's not how this has been working, either in our count or in in the Obama campaign's. The commitments that matter are the ones that are public. So the story is trivial: I think you could probably get virtually all of the superdelegates at this point to privately acknowledge that they'll vote for Obama at the convention.

So as far as the (academic) matter of deciding when exactly Obama gets the majority, I'm going to stick with named supporters. Our count, and the Obama campaign's, leave him about 30 shy.

Meanwhile, Halperin puts up this graphic:

P.S. Here's a lengthier version of the AP article, which is essentially a wrap-up of the entire race.

Comments

[Joe Mama]

I can't believe they nominated a muslim ;-)

[Brendan]

Heh.

[CORNHUSKERS 94 95 & 97]

That did'nt take long

[Hillary Clinton]

You've clinched nothing! Nothing, I say!!!

I'm Queen! You hear me! I'm the QUEEN!!!!

[kcatnd]

Hillary will indeed become President and rub elbows with a number of foreign dignitaries and anyone else she meets in the institution.

[CORNHUSKERS 94 95 & 97]

I will not vote for him if he offers her the VP slot. How could you ask her to be your #2 when she has trashed you to the entire world as a black candidate to young to know his ass from his elbow and who looks down on the lower class

[yea]

corn,

because there is too much at stake for us to deal with another republican administration. whoever obama's camp feels will give them a better chance at election is who they should pick. if hillary can sure up woman and hispanic voters then go for it.

[Angrier and Angrier]

Hillary is open to the VP slot, eh? Isn't that like someone beating the shit out of you with a baseball bat in the back alley and then asking you for a job when it's done?

[Becky]

Hmmm. The AP finally reporting what people with a brain have known since Super Tuesday.

[Jim]

well considering how well the predictions worked out of her winning the nomination, I think you'll excuse me if I don't think it's valid to overturn the will of voters over what is at best a marginal perceived strength in november.

[CORNHUSKERS 94 95 & 97]

yea

then his first job as President had better be to hire a body double and a food taster

[Sandy Underpants]

Operation Fugu.

[Alasdair]

Cornhuskers - if Obama has *any* sense, he is already having any and all of his food and drink tasted by Michelle and Rev Wright first, before he even goes near it ...