Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Fight on for HRC?

By Brendan Loy

Are Hillary Clinton and her supporters talking themselves into continuing their fight all the way to the convention? Or is the tough talk just posturing?

As Hillary huddles tonight in Chappaqua with her inner circle, I fear there's a real risk of an echo-chamber effect taking hold, and the Hillaryland brigades convincing themselves of the logic of continuing the campaign even after Obama surpasses the magic delegate threshold. She's being deliberately vague about staying in the race "until there's a nominee" -- what exactly does that mean, especially given that delegates can change their minds, and that the "magic number" itself is still in doubt? -- but we'll find out soon enough. If Obama clinches a delegate majority and Clinton doesn't drop out, then we'll know. If that happens, there'll be no preventing a party-crippling floor fight. Once the train leaves the station, it won't be stopped. It's either this week or the last week of August, methinks.

The question is, does anyone in Clinton's inner circle truly understand the depth of the backlash that would occur if she were to attempt such a thing? Do they realize it would be career suicide? Do they understand that these next couple of days represent her last chance to exit the race with some semblance of dignity, such that she and Bill might someday have a chance of rebuilding their image in the party? Or are they so myopic at this point that they'll fall under the spell of their own talking points?

Even if Hillary & co. don't truly believe their own rhetoric, they'd better be careful: their words may become increasingly difficult to back away from. When you've got supporters chanting "Denver! Denver!" (not to mention "McCain! McCain!") and fundraisers saying "August, and no earlier," how do you bow out gracefully -- even if you want to -- without leaving those folks feeling betrayed? Particularly when you've been casting your argument in terms of "upholding bedrock principles" and saving the country from certain doom? If she doesn't at least begin the process of standing down and backing off tomorrow night, the sheer force of momentum produced by her "fighting" rhetoric may carry her all the way to Denver, whether she means it to or not.

P.S. On a somewhat related note, it's incredibly frustrating to keep reading bogus reports -- from legitimate journalists in mainstream newspapers! -- about how the Obama campaign may "reach deeply into its well-stocked coffers" in order to repay Clinton's campaign debt. There's only one small problem: it'd be illegal for Obama to do anything of the sort, as noted here:

Obama is not allowed to take millions of dollars from his own campaign and give them to Clinton's campaign. The most his campaign could legally give would be $2,000. Any deal to help Clinton with her debt would have to be in the form of Obama helping to raise additional money on Clinton's behalf.

This is a very basic piece of essential information, yet it keeps getting utterly ignored by "reporters" when they "report" on this issue. Such inexcusably sloppy reporting is journalistic malpractice, plain and simple.

Fighting fire with fire

By Brendan Loy

A California blogger fights back against the noise pollution emanating from a nearby Cadillac Escalade that was blasting vulgar rap music "loud enough to be heard a block away" ... by cranking up his own car stereo system and blasting the Clancy Brothers.

I ramped up the volume to "11" and let the boys rip into their version of "Whiskey in the Jar" from nigh-on 45 years ago. ... Maybe it was the line about producing my pistol, and then producing my rapier, but after a couple of minutes, my problem was solved. No more boom-boom from said Escalade.

LOL!

Countdown to Obama's victory

By Brendan Loy

Barack Obama needs 25 superdelegate endorsements today and tomorrow -- maybe a few less than that, depending on his Montana and South Dakota margins -- to clinch an outright delegate majority in time for his St. Paul victory speech tomorrow night.

Can he do it? As of this writing, he's gotten two today, so he needs 23 more. Check this link or Halperin for updates throughout the day, as I'm sure there will be more endorsements. Also keep in mind, it isn't the "net" that matters, but the absolute number for Obama.

One key question is when the "Pelosi club" superdelegates, who've said they'll endorse the pledged-delegate winner, will specifically announce for Obama, who has already secured the pledged-delegate majority.

As for those in the alternate Hillaryland reality who want to trump the pesky delegate count by relying on a fundamentally flawed, inherently illegitimate, hotly disputed, and at best extremely narrow "popular vote" victory, here's a handy popular vote scenario tester, where you answer various questions about how the vote should be counted, and the tally updates automatically. There are a grand total of 972 possible scenarios. :)

P.S. Baltimore Sun columnist Paul Rogat Loeb makes an excellent point about Hillary's phony "popular vote" claims:

Given the bitterness of so many Hillary Clinton supporters that the woman they thought would be America's first female president will not be, the more they hear the suggestion that Sen. Barack Obama's win is illegitimate, the more likely they are to bolt. If Senator Clinton's voters embrace the story that "a man took it away from a woman," denying her a victory she deserved, they're at risk of staying home come November, or holding back from the volunteering and get-out-the-vote efforts necessary for the Democrats to prevail.

That's why it's so unfortunate that Mrs. Clinton continues to claim that "we are winning the popular vote." Because that statement is a lie - and it undermines every word she has recently spoken about the need for the party to come together. ...

Every time Mrs. Clinton claims she has a popular majority, she's shattering whatever cease-fire exists and making it that much more likely that her supporters will stay home in November. If she really wants a united party, she needs to stop, and the superdelegates need to hold her accountable.

P.P.S. On a barely related note, Politico quotes a Clinton aide as stating, "It’s clear to us that Barack Obama has won the Drudge Primary, and it's one of the most important primaries in this process." Hmm, does that make Matt Drudge a super-duper delegate?

UPDATE: Obama is definitely hoping to clinch tomorrow:

Looking to bring finality to the Democratic presidential campaign, Barack Obama worked furiously Monday to win over enough superdelegates to clinch the nomination with the final primaries Tuesday.

Obama wants to formally kick off his general election campaign against Republican John McCain in a victory speech Tuesday night as the final primary campaign polls close in South Dakota and Montana.

"Senator Obama is trying to line up people that are going to come out for him tomorrow during the day so that he'll have enough that puts him over the top that he can declare victory tomorrow," said Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire, one of about 200 superdelegates under pressure to take a side in the contest.

For what it's worth, the polls close at 8:00 PM EDT in eastern South Dakota, 9:00 PM in western South Dakota, and 10:00 PM in Montana. Obama's rally in St. Paul is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM EDT, but I assume he won't be speaking until sometime after 10:00. (Montana is expected to be a landslide, so it'll probably be possible to declare it for Obama -- and award him 9 delegates right off the bat -- immediately after the polls close. [UPDATE: Or maybe not?])

Oh, and about those superdelegates: 15 of them, all U.S. Senators, are meeting this afternoon to decide what to do. I imagine a mass Tuesday-morning endorsement by the remaining undeclared senators could go along way toward bringing a few more supers along and putting Obama over the top by 10:00 PM tomorrow.

Hillary's mixed signals

By Brendan Loy

What happens after Obama clinches the delegate majority this week? Well, on the one hand...

Clinton campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe tells my colleague Ken Vogel in San Juan that Hillary Clinton will “probably” continue a retail-level campaign operation after Tuesday’s primaries regardless of what happens in them.

Team Clinton also won’t necessarily consider the campaign over if rival Barack Obama soon reaches the 2,118-delegate threshold necessary to clinch the nomination. ...

[McAluiffe said,] “We’ll see. We’re going to get through Tuesday’s votes. We’re going to see where we are, and we’re going to look at all of our options. Every option is on the table.” ...

And he hinted that the campaign might be targeting some superdelegates committed to Obama. ... “Just remember: No superdelegate is bound until they vote at the convention.”

On the other hand...

Members of Hillary Clinton's advance staff received calls and emails this evening from headquarters summoning them to New York City Tuesday night, and telling them their roles on the campaign are ending, two Clinton staffers tell my colleague Amie Parnes.

The advance staffers -- most of them now in Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana -- are being given the options of going to New York for a final day Tuesday, or going home, the aides said. The move is a sign that the campaign is beginning to shed -- at least -- some of its staff. The advance staff is responsible for arranging the candidate's events around the country.

With the future of her campaign in doubt, Clinton hasn't announced her plans for the final election night of the primary cycle or beyond, but the aides said she would stage her election night event in New York City.

Her home state sounds like a great place to make a concession speech, no? [UPDATE: According to Ben Smith, Hillary's election-night speech will be "at Baruch College in Manhattan. A Clinton source says it'll be 'valedictory' but she seems unlikely to actually drop out and endorse Obama tomorrow." Meanwhile, one of Hillary's top supporters, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, says she should concede after tomorrow's elections.]

Anyway, I don't think anyone knows what Hillary will do yet -- I doubt she herself has even finally decided -- but it's quite possible that McAuliffe's tough talk is largely posturing for negotiating position. Consider this report from over the weekend:

Hillary Clinton will be offered a dignified exit from the presidential race and the prospect of a place in Barack Obama's cabinet under plans for a "negotiated surrender" of her White House ambitions being drawn up by Senator Obama's aides.

Hmm... peace with honor in Vietnam Hillaryland? Well, hey, it could be a good test run for ending the war in Iraq. :) More after the jump.