Will it still be "over" after West Virginia?
Hillary says she'll fight on, though the congealing consensus is that she's likely to behave like Mike Huckabee after Super Tuesday, running a purely positive campaign from here on out. (I'll believe that when I see it.)
In any event, the media CW that "it's over" remains firmly entrenched, as illustrated by the following clip from tonight's CBS Evening News, currently linked at the top of Drudge:
Here's how the New York Times put it: "Very early this morning, after many voters had already gone to sleep, the conventional wisdom of the elite political pundit class that resides on television shifted hard, and possibly irretrievably, against Senator Hillary Clinton's continued viability as a presidential candidate."
But is the shift truly "irretrievable"? The big question in my mind is whether the "it's over" meme will survive Clinton's 30-point win (or more!) in West Virginia next Tuesday, followed by perhaps a 40-point win in Kentucky the following week.
Will the MSM have enough discipline to recognize that, in this primary season where demography is destiny, these inevitable Clinton landslides will tell us nothing new about either candidate, and will not demonstrate that Obama "can't close the deal" or that Hillary is "fighting back"? (In truth, the results will demonstrate only that two of the three most naturally Hillary-friendly states in the nation -- the other being Arkansas -- coincidentally happen to hold their primaries right near the end of the process.)
Or will the MSM once again fall prey to the allure of shiny moving objects, allowing Hillary to successfully use this coincidence of the calendar to generate fake "momentum" down the stretch? Will her utterly predictable blowout wins turn the media storyline back in her favor, freezing the superdelegates and focusing everyone's attention on May 31 and June 1 (i.e., Michigan, Florida and Puerto Rico)?
I honestly don't know the answer to that question, but it will determine whether anyone takes Hillary Clinton seriously during the final month of this long campaign.


My guess would be that Hillary wants the votes in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico so that, when combined with Michigan and Florida, she would have the "lead" in the popular vote. Numbers from RealClearPolitics:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
But for that to work, she'd likely have to discard Iowa, Washington state, Nevada, and Maine completely (since they didn't give actual numbers).
Posted by: JD | May 7, 2008 10:48:49 PM
Never mind. Brendan already covered all of that.
Posted by: JD | May 8, 2008 1:03:34 AM
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?!
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 8:56:23 AM
Heh:
Posted by: Joe Mama | May 8, 2008 9:19:27 AM
Has anyone else been on one of those first dates with a self-loathing gal who, during the course of the evening, gets liquored up and starts talking about God and marriage and ex-boyfriends and won't fucking leave?
That is Hillary Clinton.
Posted by: Angrier and Angrier | May 8, 2008 10:13:21 AM