Seat Florida & Michigan?

Daily Kos diarist PocketNines does the delegate math in excruciating detail and concludes that Obama should agree to seat Michigan and Florida in full, because, in the words of the Jed Report's "Cliff Notes version":

Obama is still a lock to win the nomination even if Michigan and Florida are seated in full, and by giving Clinton everything she wants, her rationale for taking the campaign to the convention disappears.

That makes a lot of political sense, but as I said before, the fly in this ointment is that, even if the Obama campaign agrees to seat Michigan and Florida in full -- thus putting Hillaryland and Barackworld in complete agreement -- I still don't see how the Democratic Party can afford to go along.

Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the Rules & Bylaws Committee members' ability to look beyond the current controversy and see the bigger picture. But the long-term reality is that, if they cave on Florida and Michigan, they will have completely ceded their power over the primary and caucus process. Seating Florida and Michigan would be abject surrender to state-by-state chaos.

Think about it. If the Dems do a total reversal now, and undo the penalty they imposed last year, why would anyone take them seriously when, in 2011, more states try to circumvent the official 2012 calendar, and the DNC again threatens to strip those states' delegations? Everyone will know the "penalty" is an empty threat, and that all they'll have to do is cry "disenfranchisement" to get it lifted. It'll be total chaos in future years if the Dems do this.

It's worth remembering that the whole purpose of the delegate-stripping penalty was to eliminate the incentive for states to "cut in line" by denying unauthorized early primaries their influence over the nomination process. Of course, by its nature, this penalty would only have any practical effect in years when delegates actually matter -- i.e., years exactly like this one, where there's a close race to the finish instead of a "presumptive nominee" by mid-February. In other words, the current situation is precisely the situation where the penalty is supposed to kick in.

Now, granted, some of the folks who voted to impose the penalty appear not to have grasped this basic and obvious concept. Instead, they foolishly assumed that delegates would never matter, and thus the penalty was certain to be merely symbolic, because "the nominee" would insist on the delegates being seated. Of course, this is precisely backwards, since in a contested election, the delegates choose the nominee, not the other way around -- and in an uncontested election, delegates don't matter, so the penalty is irrelevant anyway! It's difficult to understand why anyone would vote for a penalty that they expected to have literally zero impact; what's the point? It would be like passing a law saying that something is a crime, but that the maximum penalty for that "crime" is a fine of $0 and/or a jail term of 0 days. Why on earth would anyone vote for such a nonsensical, purposeless law? Nevertheless, this appears to have been the logic of many DNC members who voted last year for the delegate-stripping penalty.

However, the fact remains that, whatever the subjective motivations of the idiots who voted for it, the penalty was, on its face,  designed to do precisely what Hillary Clinton is objecting to, namely denying rogue primaries the ability to help decide the nominee. This is not some unintended consequence that the DNC is being asked to remedy -- rather, it is the intended consequence, the precise point of the penalty. Those who advocate seating Florida and Michigan are truly talking about a complete, 180-degree reversal of the original decision's actual and intended effect. This is crucial to understand.

Now, I suppose the committee could agree to seat the delegates, but make some sort of sternly worded "never again" statement. "Okay, we'll seat your delegates just this once, but dammit, if you pull this sort of stunt next time around, we'll really enforce the penalty! We swear!" But is anyone going to believe that? If they can be pressured into reversing themselves once, they can be pressured into reversing themselves again.

As for those who say it doesn't matter because the parties (or, heaven forfend, Congress or the courts) are going to reform the whole process between now and 2012, I would urge some caution in assuming that such a thing will happen merely because it (arguably) should. The fact that the current process is antiquated, undemocratic and irrational is no guarantee it will be fixed. Just look at the Electoral College (but cf.), or for that matter, the BCS! :) The point is, until we know otherwise, we ought to operate on the assumption that the 2012 process will be a screwed-up hodge-podge just like the 2008 process. And thus, the ability of the national parties to control the state parties (and state legislatures) on an ad-hoc basis will still matter.

Anyway, one possible solution would be for the DNC to seat the pledged delegates in full, but seat none of the superdelegates. I realize they'll never do this, because the supers are powerful people who would scream bloody murder if they were to be denied their privileges, and the party apparatchiks who will make this decision are their natural allies. (Indeed, there is talk that the party might give the Florida & Michigan pledged delegates half-votes, while giving the supers full votes.)

But if the Dems are really concerned about preventing "disenfranchisement," and yet they want a workable way to enforce the party rules in future years, this might be it. The supers are more arguably to blame for what happened in Michigan and Florida than the voters are; they may not have been directly responsible for the decision to move the primaries up (well, not all of them, anyway - e.g., Jennifer Granholm certainly is, and she's a superdelegate, but members of Congress played no direct role in the decision), but surely they could have used their influence to try and prevent it from happening, and instead they chose not to (and in many cases supported it).

Give superdelegates a personal incentive to prevent a repeat of this rogue-primary business -- i.e., if your state does this, you lose your spot at the convention -- and you might actually be able to prevent total chaos in future years. (Merely denying them their voting privileges, and seating them as non-voting delegates, probably wouldn't be enough. Superdelegates don't particularly like to make decisions. They just want to be there for the big party. To make the penalty really hurt, you'd have to deny them their floor credentials. Imagine: the governor of Michigan, forced to mingle with the plebes in the hallway! Now that would be a just penalty!)

Like I said, it won't happen. But maybe it should.

Comments

[MinnesotaGirl]

It looks like Florida already brought a law suit in October 2007. See link below. How is this new law suit any different?

The real problem was that the Republican- controlled Florida legislature had no motivation to respect the DNC rules. It sounds like Florida Democrats made some effort to change the date to be in line with DNC rules, but couldn't.

Still, I don't think the votes were meaningful elections. I do not see how seating the delegates would solve DNC problems, because too many other states already want to "cut in line."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1016/p01s01-uspo.html

[dcl]

Parenting 101 never make a threat you aren't willing to cary out.

[Angrier and Angrier]

I agree. If the DNC gives in this time, all hell will break loose during the 2012 primary season.

[copndor]

If you appease Hillary, she'll only return with greater and greater demands from the West, uh... I mean, demands from Obama.

[dcl]

okay, I know this sounds a little prejudicial and all, but I feel it needs to be said. John McCain's health records were release today and I've got to admit, I'm not too keen on the idea of a president who is on sleeping pills... "I know the country is under attack, but I'm afraid we can't wake the president..." "Why not" "well he just took an Ambin about an hour and a half ago. it will be almost impossible to get him up, and if we do he will be in a sleeping pill induced haze. I mean it says you've got to be able to devote 7 to 8 hours to sleep when you take it." I know it's that ridiculous Hillary 3am thing... but this is kind of serious, it's three am and the phone is ringing, but John McCain won't be up until 5:30 for his seniors yoga class... Now, getting a good night sleep is vitally important, and we should all get our 8 hours to be at our best each day. But if you are going to have a job like President of the United States, you do kind of need to be able to wake up at any hour and be reasonably coherent and focused. I dunno, what do other people think about this? Is it rational to be concerned about having a president on sleeping pills, or is it just some kind of agest or mental health bias that really wouldn't have any impact on job performance?

[Jay Johnson]

The only thing the Florida/Michigan situation reasserts in full effect is that the people of the several states don't actually elect a President (or nominee).

The entire system is completely controlled by the parties. If the parties actually cared about the voters...err, the PEOPLE, then they would let the card carrying members of their party state their preference for a candidate.

The party isn't concerned about the people. They're concerned about the PARTY. They're concerned with power, control, and dictating who we have as our "elected" leader.

But then again, I'm having a jaded approach to the world today, so take it FWIW. Which may not be much.

[Alasdair]

Jay - I seem to recall that the reason for the early Dem Primary vote was because they wanted the vote held at the same time as something else ... they could just as easily have had the Primary vote later and not had this current problem ...

They made a bad decision, and, as dcl says, it's Parenting 101 - for a sanction or threat to be effective, it has to be a promise - and has to be carried out if triggered unless there are *very* strong mitigating circumstances which could not have been foreseen ... and that's not what is happening ...

( I just agreed with dcl - does this mean I won't be allowed to vote for President in November ?)

(Oh, hang on, until I'm a citizen, I don't get to vote ... well, not legally, anyway)

(grin)

[I R A Darth Aggie]

I still don't see how the Democratic Party can afford to go along.

I don't see how the party of every vote must count! can now turn around and say we'll take away your vote, and your little dog, too!.

Physican, heal thyself!

They should have taken a page out of the GOP play book and said you're breaking our rules by moving your primaries up, so we're going to dock your delegates by half. Guess Dr. Dean is too fracking smart to do that, tho?

[Joe Loy]

Alasdair, fer cryin' out loud why don't you get Naturalized? / Perhaps I should Rephrase that ;}. But you know what I mean :>. Couldn't you become a Dual Citizen? Admittedly I have No idea what-all that entails. / Of course I do admire loyalty to one's native land. And when the SNP achieves Scotland's independence you can probably go back and become Minister of Media or somesuch ;]. But in the meantime you could just move to Connecticut. We let Foreigners vote all the time. I know 'cause I've Often queued up at the polls with Puerto Ricans. ;>

Brendan, good analysis.

Re the Unimportant aspect ~ the petty Politics :> ~ having Perused (I won't claim, Scrutinized :) "the delegate math in excruciating detail" as commendably presented by the linked Pocketnines: I'm not Convinced. Pocketnines is obviously Excellent :> and Knows how to Count what Matters here ~ BUT it looks to me like some of his "guaranteed" (his term) impending Obama Pickups are based on Assumptions that are distinctly less than Certainties. / In particular ~ as Pocketnines acknowledges in a PS ~ his Ironclad (and crucial) count of at least 31 diehard Michigan Obalmies being already Selected as "Uncommitted" delegates, is (per an informed commenter) Questionable, given that the MI Dem Party, as it prepares to play Footsie with the Rules & Bylaws Committee, isn't presently Ratifying the validity of such selections.

But in regard to the Significant issue, namely the present-&-Future Integrity of The Process ;}, of course I agree with you, Brendan.

["As for those who say it doesn't matter because the parties (or, heaven forfend, Congress or the courts) are going to reform the whole process between now and 2012, I would urge some caution in assuming that such a thing will happen merely because it (arguably) should." / In a comment to a previous post I Said something to that effect but I was ~ transparently, I trust :> ~ being altogether Satirical in so saying. Of COURSE that won't happen; Arguably it Shouldn't :>; and if it DID it would most likely make matters Worse. :]

Here's my MI & FL plan. (Kindly FWD to the D R&BL Comm :) For each state respectively:

(1) Sh*tcan the Superdelegates.

(2) Seat one-half of the Elected delegates. Such Seat-ees to be drawn at random from [a] a Hillary Hat containing names of the Full complement of Hillarylanders pursuant to the primary results and similarly [b] a Barack Bowler containing the comparable contingent of Obalmies, with All MI "uncommitted" slots deemed Barackista property.

(3) Allot to Each lucky lotterywinner: Two Votes :}, with the stipulation that on the Rollcall these may, at the delegate's option at the time of said late-August rollcall, be Split between 2 candidates if desired (or, of course, One cast and One Abstained; or Both withheld; or, boringly, both cast for One candidate :).

(4) Suspend all MI & FL representation on the Democratic National Committee for the Next-commencing term for each such DNC seat respectively ~ such sanction to be Lifted if & when the state party enacts its own Bylaw mandating its future Compliance with any & all Delegate Selection Calendars decreed by the National party. :>

A note re The Courts, Brendan. When I first heard about the recent Geller lawsuit in FL, my reaction was what you'd Expect :}. Mom had to endure my vehement invocations of the Wasteproduct of el Toro & So forth :>. However, having so Proclaimed, I then Perused the Pleading (scroll to bottom of article where there's a link reading "And here is the lawsuit itself: Download file" ~ and sometime teach he how the hell to Link directly to a PDF :) and now I must admit it looks at least Facially Plausible to me. Geller (himself an attorney & wouldn't ye know his Law Firm is handing the case :) does extensively expound just Why it is that the Democratic National Committee is a Florida State Actor ;} and while Some of that is probably Blown Smoke, OTOH some of it seems pretty strong. / He argues among other things, violations of the 14th Amendment (equal protection ~ what else? :) & of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (DNC didn't get Fed DOJ Preclearance!! :). /// So my Q is: whaddaya think, Counsellor? [only If, of course, you can both Ethically & Safely Say.].

[David K.]

I don't see how the party of every vote must count! can now turn around and say we'll take away your vote, and your little dog, too!.

I don't see how people still don't understand the difference between a constitutionally gaurenteed right to vote in the general election and the not gauranteed whatsoever vote in a private party election...

[Mad Max, Esquire]

If Hillary has her wish, Obama will meet the same fate as RFK in June, so this whole issue will be moot...

http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/05/hillarys_bizarre_rfk_comment.html

[FS Beyond the Grave]

I wonder

George Soros and Shill dog arrive one night at the Obama residence.

Soros proposes that in return for a Billion Dollar pension and MLK-like historical prominence, Obama sacrifice himself to the cause.

Obama becomes a well-funded and well-oiled perfect political machine from 2004-2008, acheiving, as planned, a messianic RFJJFKMLK like Super status, while giving Hillary, in the public eye, the one thing she lacked - humility and grace via trial by fire.

During his final ascension, the hat is tipped to the possibility of lingering racial animus obstacles in the United States.

Obama is dropped one day by an unknown assailant. Factually or facially, he is removed from the national scene. Overnight, the Obama's become a political dynasty and racial tension is revived for another century as unrest spills into the streets.

As the Nation slowly recovers from six weeks of turmoil, martial law, and emergency action, it becomes clear that the greater need is to ensure the transfer of government to liberal progressives capable of resolving the racial and political wounds. Hillary Clinton, all the stigma of second-place long gone following her tearful wreath laying at Obama's coffin and embracing of Malia and Sasha or whoever, steps forward with the remnants of her own campaign and Obama's forces, ready to marshal all forces and enthusiasm for a final routing of the Republican menace.

John McCain loses the popular vote 80/20.

I return to my slumber.

[Leanna]

Any state party organization that claims any other reason for needing to move up their primary than wanting to have the first primary is lying. States have been jockeying for that position ever since New Hampshire's lock on it was picked.

[From the Canadian Border]

I have paid close attention to this race following it on CNN very closely. I will admit before making my comments that I have a little more than a general sense of the US political system due to the Bush and Gore election and now due to the Democratic primaries.

I cannot understand how the rules can be changed at the end of the process to suit a nominee, someone who actually agreed to the rules in the beginning. It is very unfortunate that not all votes will count but this was a part of the agreed upon process.

Hilary should have conceded and although she tries to make her case as the reason for continueing on is for the people this simply is not true. The Clinton's love power and will not relinguish it too easily.

Regardless now of the outcome of this Obama will become the presidential canidate and it will always be tarnished that Michigan and Florida were not counted.

Should this ever go to a convention, the party has then ignored the voters and results to appease a powerful woman and family. The results are the results and the math is the math. Wake up America, there is enough turmoil taking place in your country rather than needlessly adding to it.

MJ
Nova Scotia

[From the Canadian Border]

I have paid close attention to this race following it on CNN very closely. I will admit before making my comments that I have a little more than a general sense of the US political system due to the Bush and Gore election and now due to the Democratic primaries.

I cannot understand how the rules can be changed at the end of the process to suit a nominee, someone who actually agreed to the rules in the beginning. It is very unfortunate that not all votes will count but this was a part of the agreed upon process.

Hilary should have conceded and although she tries to make her case as the reason for continueing on is for the people this simply is not true. The Clinton's love power and will not relinguish it too easily.

Regardless now of the outcome of this Obama will become the presidential canidate and it will always be tarnished that Michigan and Florida were not counted.

Should this ever go to a convention, the party has then ignored the voters and results to appease a powerful woman and family. The results are the results and the math is the math. Wake up America, there is enough turmoil taking place in your country rather than needlessly adding to it.

MJ
Nova Scotia

[Mad Max, Esquire]

"I cannot understand how the rules can be changed at the end of the process to suit a nominee"

Apparently the only one who can understand this is Hillary. If you read through this blog, most people here agree with your point of view.

[Jim Hu]

I have a post about the rules for the convention...

...but it's not about Hillary or Obama...