Misleading exit poll alert!

Huffington Post says it's Hillary by 5 in IN, Obama by 12 in NC. I predict the actual numbers will be roughly opposite that. She'll win by double digits, he won't, and she'll benefit from another
fake "comeback."

Comments

[Andrew]

Holy crap, a plane has crashed into the building!

[aeromusek]

Hah, I love this plane - it's one of my favorite DIA decorations. And the gardens around it that look like a cross between Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, and something from the ancient Aztec empire.

[Superman]

Wonderwoman forgot to turn the cloak on, again. Dumb amazon b*eeeeooooooorrrrrrspmr. nevermind.

[Jim]

I dunno, looking at his lead, it's pretty large. I doubt she'll be able to get him below double digits.

On the other hand, she's hovering around a 10% lead, but several large population counties haven't reported yet. So we'll see.

[Jim]

Oh, that's in NC/Indiana respectively.

[copndor]

Jim, many of the big population counties are Obama territory. In the northern most part of the state from the Illinois boarder to South Bend is like a suburb of Chicago, and those have yet to report.

[copndor]

Actually Elkhart county just reported and they were 58% for Obama. It's hard to tell how indicative they are, since they're heavily Republican. Obama went door to door there, though.

[copndor]

Also, Marion county, around Indianapolis is 63 percent Obama but only 50 percent reporting. That's a high population area, of course.

[copndor]

If I were to guess, I would think that this lead will be cut to below five points soon in Indiana.

[copndor]

By the way, one of the northern counties, right next to South Bend is Laporte County, and they are notoriously slow every election on tallying up the votes. That's, I would think, Obama country, although less populous than its neighboring counties.

[copndor]

The one's you want to look for if you're rooting for an Obama come-back are Marion, Lake, and St. Joseph counties.

[copndor]

I would be feeling pretty good about Indiana if I were Obama right now. This is going to be closer than expected, as far as I can tell.

[copndor]

St. Joe County is in and Obama won by 3,000. I don't think that bodes very well for his overall performance, but Hillary did spend a lot of time in South Bend, as did he. Meanwhile the corridor to Chicago is initially looking much better for Hillary than expected, although it's too early to tell. There are also a lot of obama votes around Indianapolis left to be counted.

[copndor]

Obama is going to have to dominate the Chicago corridor if he's to have any chance of pulling this one out, especially in Lake County. The Indianapolis vote can only potentially get him within about 4 percent. And even if Obama dominates the Chicago corridor, nothing's for certain. I think he looses this one be a little less than five points, but things could change.

[yea]

no votes in from gary yet. i think hillary still wins but for once obama comes closer than expected.

[Andrew]

aeromusek, I don't get it -- what does the Defense Intelligence Agency have to do with it? Hmmm, a plane once crashed into the Pentagon. Maybe there's a connection here....

[copndor]

This is going in Hillary's favor late. Obama was banking on getting the vote out big in the Chicago corridor, with his Illinois connection, but Hillary's held strong in South Bend, and is currently leading around Gary in Porter county by 18 points! Only 25 percent is in there, though.

[copndor]

Ok. So Marion county just moved to 84 percent reporting and that closed the Clinton lead to 4 points. By the time Marion county and its neighbor Hamilton County finish, Obama will be within 3 or less. But he can't close the deal unless the Chicago corridor, especially Lake County come in huge. Given that neighboring Porter County is going his Clinton, I'm skeptical. Still, it's possible.

[Mad Max, Esquire]

Hillary is done. Obama is going to beat her by double-digits in NC and may actually get within a point or two in Indiana.

[Andrew]

Mad Max, if things finish as you say, that just means Indiana and North Carolina went exactly according to every pundit's expectations. HRC was either "done" before today, or she wasn't. In either case, today's results (if HRC holds onto Indiana) don't change a thing.

[Mad Max, Esquire]

Andrew-

She is done from the standpoint that her argument against Obama - and her kitchen sink strategy - failed. I would have to think that many Super Delegates who were on the fence will now be willing to cast their support for Obama and begin wrapping this up.

[aeromusek]

Andrew -
I'm assuming you're being serious, so...around here 'DIA' stands for Denver International Airport. I had the same confusion in reverse when I started reading Robert Ludlum novels.

[Andrew]

aeromusek... I was kidding.