It's Hoosier/Tar Heel Tuesday!

The polls are open in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. They'll close tonight at 6:00 PM EST in most of the Hoosier State, 7:00 PM in a few western Indiana counties, 7:30 PM in the vast majority of North Carolina, and 8:30 PM in a few N.C. counties.

The RCP poll averages show Clinton up by 5 in Indiana, and Obama up by 8 in North Carolina, so a "split" seems the most likely outcome. But who knows, maybe we'll see an upset tonight. What are your predictions? And what will the outcomes mean? Does an Obama sweep force Hillary out of the race before West Virginia? Does a "split" keep us going to the convention, or just to early June? What if Hillary pulls off a sweep? (Here are my thoughts.)

Whatever your predictions, and whatever your rooting interests, remember: the early, leaked exit polls mean nothing. If Drudge comes out with another late-afternoon "EXIT POLL DRAMA" bulletin, showing Obama leading Indiana by a small margin and North Carolina by a huge one, don't buy it. Obama always does worse in the actual results than in the unweighted exit polls. So don't get excited, and don't buy into this crap again:

[Pennsylvania's] early exit polls had suggested a nail-biter that suggested Hillary might be finished. Yet, much like Super Tuesday, Hillary made a "comeback" over the course of the night, as her vote margin gradually widened. Why, it was almost as though Obama had Hillary on the ropes and she fought him off with pure grit and determination. Impressive! She's back!

That's happened four separate times now: New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, Texas & Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Not again! Enough! The line must be drawn here! Let there be no unearned, fraudulent "spin" boost for Hillary this time, due to poor media memory of recent exit-poll history. PAY ATTENTION, MSM!!!

Anyway... my flight leaves Denver at 7:00 PM EST and lands at 9:25, so it's quite likely that neither state will have been "called" when I take off, and both will have been "called" by the time I land. And, upon landing, I have a 2 1/2-hour drive from Nashville back to Knoxville. So, needless to say, I won't be doing my usual election-night liveblogging. But I might post an update from the airport if there's anything to report (e.g., meaningless exit-poll leaks), and regardless, I've set up an "open thread" to automatically post at 6:00 PM. Also, CNN Breaking News alerts should auto-post a few minutes after Wolf Blitzer, Wolf Blitzer calls each state.

Goooo Obama, Beeeeat Expectations!

Comments

[Sean Braisted]

My mind will be telling me "don't believe the exit polls," but my heart will be saying "yes we can".

[JD]

The exit poll is an indicator nearly as useless as the "Service Engine Soon" light.

[Joe Loy]

"Goooo Obama, Beeeeat Expectations!"

Well, perhaps he will. After all, Hillary beat Uncommitted by a massive 15 points in Michigan's historic Undefining Moment so I see no reason why Barack shouldn't outpace Expectations today :}. Certainly Expectations is both Inspirational and Tough-as-Nails but Its candidacy is way too closely tied to the Mainstream Media, which is widely perceived as controlling Its strategy & tactics week-by-week. The public is getting sick of this. Time for Expectations to fall. ;>

* * * * * * * * * * *

Each of the FOUR possible scenarios for today is also Plausible, i.e., none is Outlandish. They are ~

Obama sweep
Clinton sweep
Conventional split: IN for Clinton & NC for Obama
Inversive split: IN for Obama, NC for Clinton. :)

Obviously the nonpartisan Imp of the Perverse in me loves that Last one :}. Sure, it's the Least likely, but don't write it Off. (Hey, if I could vote I might write in In. / Talk about Beating Expectations. Ol' Expected would just have to Withdraw in Shame. :)

My only Prediction: no matter What today's outcome ~ nor those of the subsequent contests for (a) pledged delegates, (b) unpledged PLEO delegates, and (c) Florida & Michigan Shadowdelegates ~ there will be a Roll Call Vote at the convention, between candidates Obama and Clinton, one of whom will thus Win the nomination by a Small-to-Modest Majority of the total delegates.

Iow, as with Ford-Reagan '76, Carter-Kennedy '80, Mondale-Hart '84 and Dukakis-Jackson '88, neither of these candidates is going to "drop out" in the sense of formally Releasing her/his delegates and "Endorsing" the "winner" until such "winner" has become: not merely the de facto "nominee presumptive" but rather, the Nominee de jure.

Oh, sure, if as June & July roll along the old "Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin" graffito (literally, “It has been counted and counted, weighed and divided” :) were to materialize upon Queen Belshazzer's wall ;>, advising Authoritatively that she's Found Wanting, she'd probably Quiet down and quit Battling and begin chirping about Reconciliation & Unity and all That good stuff which will pay dividends in 2012. / But she, and her People, are going to Have their Day in Denver regardless. I.e. she might ~ inexplicitly, de facto ~ Suspend; but she's not going to Withdraw.

(Now in the Very improbable scenario wherein summer brings the party-pooping Handwriting to King Barack's feast, I dunno What the hell happens. / Nothing Good, I suspect. :)

[B. Minich]

Its the Big Ten/ACC Challenge!

Because the Big Ten always loses, I'm going to pick Hilary (the ultimate loser) to win Indiana, and Obama (the ultimate winner of the nomination) to win North Carolina.

So that's my pick.

[copndor]

Saint Mary's nuns in Indiana told "no ID, no vote."
http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NEWS07/384211351&template=247art

[Dave]

Based on the BLEPT (Brendan Loy Exit Poll Theorem), here are my predictions for tonight:

Clinton sweeps!!

IN: Clinton 54, Obama 45
NC: Clinton 51, Obama 49

Chaos, Wolf Blitzer, Chaos!!!

[JO]

Obama loses Indiana and NC.
All the pent-up rage that his wife talked about reaches a boiling point.
He proceeds to rip the still-beating heart from Hillary and shows it to her.
He gets the nomination tomorrow.

[Mad Max, Esquire]

I see Obama winning in NC with virtually the same percentage Hillary wins by in IN.

[JD]

Let there be no unearned, fraudulent "spin" boost for Hillary this time, due to poor media memory of recent exit-poll history.

What, and deprive the noted Democratic bastions* of West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota of the right to have a say?

*Well, Oregon actually is. The western half, anyway.

[Joe Loy]

copndor, yeah, last night the Cablenewsies were reporting The Nuns Story ;) with a sort of Amused Wonderment ~ apparently incredulous that electionlaw-trained Pollworkers would somehow suppose that a State Photo ID Statute (whose Constitutionality was recently upheld 7-2 by SCOTUS) could actually apply to the Sisters.

As a matter of sound Public Policy I'm not enamored of mandatory photo ID (I agree with SCOTUS that it's constitutionally permissible but that's a Different question). However, given that it IS the law in Indiana, the MSM should stick their Amused Wonderment in their Wimple :}. The law is the law and now that the good Sisters of St. Mary's have learned that they, too, must bring their ID, I'm sure they'll get into the habit :>.