Drudge, Russert say it's over

I just got home after my drive from Nashville, and upon getting out my computer, I'm greeted by news of a shrinking Clinton lead in Indiana (1.4 percent, or 16,609 votes), a prediction by Gary's mayor of a "possible Indiana shocker," and a report by Matt Drudge that "Hillary plans to huddle with undecided super delegates tomorrow; gauging if she can go on." And then there's Drudge's bold headline:

The link goes to this video clip of Tim Russert -- the emperor of MSM conventional wisdom -- declaring the race over:

Will Hillary really drop out (or "suspend" her campaign, or whatever) immediately before two states -- West Virginia and Kentucky -- that she could potentially win by 30 or 40 percentage points? I'm still skeptical. But if Obama can pull out Indiana, the chorus calling for her exit could become overwhelming. And unless she gets a fundraising surge like she did after Super Tuesday and again after Pennsylvania, the money problem may decide the issue for her.

Key fact: Obama's whopping popular-vote margin in North Carolina -- more than 233,000 with 99% reporting -- makes it, I think, impossible for Hillary to "win" the national "popular vote" using any remotely, arguably legitimate metric. I'll run the numbers tomorrow, but I think she can probably still "win" if you count her votes in Michigan and don't give Uncommitted's votes to Obama, thus giving Hillary the benefit of a Saddam Hussein-style 328,000 to zero victory. But that's obviously, facially absurd; it has nothing whatsoever to do with the "will of the people," and absolutely no one outside of Hillary's most devoted circle of shameless sycophants will buy into it. And, even if you give her every other benefit of the mathematical doubt (counting Florida, excluding the four caucus states, counting her 90,000-vote victory over Uncommitted in Michigan, etc.), I think it's now impossible for Hillary to "win" the "popular vote." Thus, we can now say with confidence that, when all is said and done on June 4, Obama will have more delegates and more votes. Clinton will therefore be left trying to spin a loss into a win, and to convince a supermajority of superdelegates to overturn the clearly expressed will of the people. She'll fail. Drudge and Russert are right: it's over.

UPDATE: As noted above, CNN called Indiana for Clinton a couple of minutes after I published this post. The other networks have called it, too. It will be a very slim margin, however -- so slim that it seems entirely possible, if not likely, that Hillary owes her victory to Rush Limbaugh. In a race this close, "Operation Chaos" may well have made the difference.

P.S. Hillary's assertion that Indiana "broke the tie" in the PA-NC-IN trifecta is quite possibly the most pathetically unconvincing piece of election-night spin since Joe Lieberman's "three-way split decision for third place" in New Hampshire four years ago.

P.P.S. An astute post on Obsidian Wings, declaring the race over and explaining why.

Comments

[Lauren]

Brendan, we must have been typing on your blog at the same time. Please tell me you are watching cnn!! Unreal.

[Brendan]

Alas, I am not, so I missed all the entertaining stuff you mentioned in your previous comment.

"Not God Bless Wolf Blitzer! God DAMN Wolf Blitzer! That's in the Bible!"

(j/k Wolf! Call me!)

[Lauren]

In rereading my comment on the other post I realize I might have been going a little crazy. I can't help it, Blitzer just does that to me. But he did legitimately say "will win, will win Indiana." Sigh.

[Brendan]

Teehee.

[Duck]

I just wish Russert could try to disguise the fact that he just wet his pants and is happy about it.

[Sandy Underpants]

Hillary will never quit, and she will never drop out. She's made of the same mettle as the original Terminator. She will press on, borrowing money and living off food stamps, but she will never quit, not even in the aftermath of a Puerto Rico landslide. She refuses to accept defeat.

[Joe Loy]

Well I have my Own complaint about the Cable Guys and by God I'm going to voice it here. / Again.

For no discernible reason whatsoever ~ apart from one obvious, unstated, unprovable, and altogether unworthy Possibility ~ they keep dissing Puerto Rico.

I'm serious here. / And the political likelihood that their Mathematical point is now Moot in no way diminishes the legitimacy of my grievance.

I've heard (especially) Chris Matthews repeatedly express his plainly-disapproving Amazement at the prospect that Puerto Rico (!!) might actually decide (!!!) the Democratic nomination for President. I've heard such similarly-snide remarks, usually accompanied by Snickers & Smirks, also from some of the Other learned Commentators. I've heard Expert Rumination that surely Americans will think ill of the Democratic Party if it permits Puerto Rico (!!!!) to be its Queenmaker. (Again: the new Fact-on-the-Ground, that this almost certainly Won't Happen now, is irrelevant to my point.)

Only last night that I heard MSNBC's Chief Numbercruncher, Chuck Todd, allow as how Clinton can no longer win the cumulative popular vote, 'maybe unless you want to count Puerto Rico.' (That's paraphrased, but Closely so.)

Gentlemen: KINDLY TELL US JUST WHAT THE HELL IT IS THAT YOU FIND SO WRONG ABOUT PUERTO RICO.

The Commonwealth (el Estado Libre Asociado de Puerto Rico) has been sacred American soil since we Captured the island from Spain by military force in 1898. Most of its four million inhabitants are native-born United States citizens.

While PR (like other U.S. Territories) has not been granted any Electoral Votes to cast in presidential Elections, it (again like other Territories) has long been allotted Delegate votes, by both the Democratic and Republican parties, at their Nominating conventions. Accordingly PR (like other territories) conducts presidential primaries and/or caucuses to select, and/or allocate to PresCandidates, such delegates.

So, again: exactly Why is it that I (emulating the abovecited Experts) am supposed to be Amused, Amazed, Annoyed, Alarmed, or All of the above, if it should come to pass that Puerto Rico's (or Guam's for that matter) duly-authorized votes make a Decisive difference in such a Nomination contest?

(And, as a corollary question, why Shouldn't I be equally flabbergasted & chagrined if the Dispositive ballots were to be cast by ~ to pick a place a random, let's say ~ North Carolina?)

In summary: Fie. / I believe I am not a person Easily Offended. But this crap does offend me. It really does.

And I'm not even Puerto Rican. Not hardly. Hell, I'm only Irish. ;>

[Joe Loy]

Sany Underpants: please Understand ;} that my above Rant is not applicable to your PR reference, which I hadn't seen til after I posted, and which isn't of the same ill ilk :> as what I'm griping about anyway. :}

[Andrew]

Notwithstanding my affection for "Operation Chaos" and my sincere desire that the Democrats continue this self-destructing nomination battle, I really do think HRC should remain in this until the end. I mean, what the hell is the point of running 24 miles of a marathon and then giving up? Just run the last 2 miles and 385 yards and finish the race! Yeah the outcome will already be known, but finishing the race is a laudable accomplishment all on its own -- especially if Obama has not reached the magic number of 2,025 votes and clinched the election.

[Joe Loy]

Notwithstanding my affection for Barack Obama and my sincere desire that Rush Limbaugh fall on his ass in a mudpuddle on a weekly basis, I really do Agree with you, Andrew ~ and furthermore I think she will Do it.

In addition to Your good points: for one thing, IF she can recalibrate it as a still Resolute yet Kinder & Gentler Campaign from here on out she will do Honor to her (almost) half of the party, and to Herself ~ and if handled Very deftly, this can actually Enhance the prospects for party unity at the conclusion of a spirited-but-not-spiteful Convention. / And for Another good thing, it will annoy the hell out of Chuck Todd when he learns that Yes, he does have to Count Puerto Rico ;}.

[Alasdair]

Elder Loy - do you *really* believe that Senator Clinton will continue in second place all the way to the Convention to show what a Good Sport she is ? If you do, have *I* got some waterfront property for sale to you in Florida at each end of the Verezzano Bridge (which I can also get you a good deal on !) ...

I am arriving more and more at the realisation that, at about the time of the Convention, a select group of Super-Delegates will find out why a bunch of FBI files were "accidentally" found at the White House between 1993 and 2000 ... and, "For The Good Of The Party, And The Nation, And, Of Course, For The Children", with much expression of sadness, said Super-Delegates will find that their vote goes to Senator Clinton rather than to Senator Obama ...

Remember, she showed her ability to persevere against difficulties with HillaryCare, now, didn't she ?

And if the FBI files don't work, she can always fall back on having a few of the hold-outs Fosterized ...

[Jim]

Joe: It's my understanding that Puerto Ricans don't pay federal income taxes. They do pay payroll taxes, but not income tax.

It also has no votes in Congress.

It's essentially a non-entity as far as our political process goes, except for this one case.

So some people may feel that going from this nearly non-existent status in our politics to possibly deciding who the next president is is a little much.

[Joe Loy]

Youngblood Alasdair :} ~

(1) No I do not believe, either *really* or *virtually*, that she will do that to show her Good Sportswomanship. I believe she will do it ~ Positively & Peacefully, as I suggested ~ (a) to show her Biceps on the Rollcall, and (b) to loyally Support her legion of loyal Supporters, thus (c) to Preserve her party Position for the future, and also (d) for the Present, to remain Available from June through August in the event of exhumation of any *really* (not just *wrightfully* :) scary Skeletons from the legendary political Graveyards of Chicago.

(2) I assume that your fairly-frequent commentpost allusions to Fosterization are intended as hyperbolic Satire (not to say, Black humor) (you should Pardon the expression :) (or should it be, dark humour? :). I.e., not to put too fine a Point on it: you don't ***really*** believe that The Clintons are The Sopranos, do you? ;|

(3) A propos (pardonnez l'expression :) of which, wouldyez kindly quit yer oul' conflatin' of Signor Giovanni da Verrazano wid yer man Señor Juan Ponce de León. Florida, Schmorida: a Bridge too Far, indeed. Meet me on Staten Island down at the far tip of The Keys and we'll Settle this thing. (Or, to put it Your way: Speed, bonnie boat, like a bird on the wing / Onward! the sailors cry :)

[Joe Loy]

"...So some people may feel that going from this nearly non-existent status in our politics to possibly deciding who the next president is is a little much."

Jim, I can Understand that feeling, even while feeling Differently about the matter myself. / Really that feeling ~ like my own ~ goes to the core of the Big question of the political Status of Puerto Rico. / Those who feel as you so well describe, also feel ~ some consciously, some not ~ that PR should be an independent Nation of, and On, its own. / Those who feel as I do, intuit (again, some of us Consciously, some all Unawares) that the Lovely Island should be a full-fledged, fully-Enfranchised & fully-Obligated, U.S. State. / Sadly, among the lovely Islanders themselves ~ whose ancestors saw their homeland's transfer by Force from Spain's empire to Our ancestors' own hemispheric Dominion ~ the Close Question has for long years been: between (a) full Statehood and (b) the present problematic muddle of Commonwealth condition. Independence has been ~ politically, economically, demographically, democratically ~ Not an Option.

But for the present moment, here & now in May 2008, the point is this: it's Way Too Late in This electioncycle's calendar to suddenly decree that Puerto Rico's "possibly deciding who the next president is" [actually, the next DemPres Nominee / - the commenter] "is a little much."

Iow: arguably PR shouldn't have a Rules-authorized Role in the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominating processes. / If indeed it Shouldn't, then presumably neither should any of the other Electoral-voteless (and possibly Tax-advantaged) United States imperial pseudopods (e.g. Guam, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas Islands, Democrats Abroad, Republicans in Exile, etc. :) which currently conduct Primaries and/or Caucuses for to send voting Delegates to the party Conventions. (OK, OK, so I just Made Up the Republicans in Exile. Gimme a break; I used to Be one. :)

But for THIS nominating season, per parties' rules long since In place, these various-&-sundry American Entities still DO have Votes in the process. / And we can't just instantly Repeal them upon becoming belatedly Aware of it. / You wanna Complete the disfranchisement of Puerto Rico, put in an Amendment for Next time around. But when you do ~ Remember:

"Immigrant goes to America,
Many hellos in America,
Nobody knows in America:
Puerto Rico's in America!"

:)