Does anyone really believe...

...that Obama can "close the door on the nomination with...a narrow loss in Indiana" and a win in North Carolina? Why on earth would Hillary, after a "split" on Tuesday, drop out of the race -- immediately before literally her best two states, outside of Arkansas, in the entire country (West Virginia and Kentucky)? That's crazy.

The only way Hillary drops out, maybe, is if she loses both of Tuesday's primaries outright, and her fundraising dries up as a result -- and even then, I'm not sure. Her path to the nomination no longer depends primarily on the voters; her strategy is centered on the superdelegates, not the pledged delegates (of which probably less than a dozen really hang in the balance in Indiana anyway). We already know she's going to finish way behind in the pledged delegate count; a win in Indiana won't change that, and by the same token, a loss in Indiana won't make the situation meaningfully worse than it already is.

What Indiana will do, of course, is play a big role in shaping the media narrative, which the superdelegates are susceptible to being swayed by. But Hillary knows perfectly well that West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico will swing the narrative back in her favor, if she stays in. Besides, we all know what will happen, narrative-wise, on Tuesday. Even if the media sets "a solid win in Indiana" as Hillary's goalpost now, it will inevitably get moved at the last minute, because on election night, the OMG! EXIT POLLS!! will show Obama winning Indiana by 6 points and North Carolina by 18, or something like that, and every idiotic, short-memoried pundit will declare Clinton's campaign over... whereupon she'll "rally" to win Indiana by 1 (which will look like 3 when Tim Russert goes to bed) and lose North Carolina by "just" 8 (which will look like 5 at Russert's bedtime). Another Clinton comeback!! She's a "fighter," don't ya know!!

*sigh*

Anyway, all things considered, I think this idea that Obama is (again) on the verge of "clinching" the nomination is wishful thinking. Unless the USOs (Uncommitted Superdelegates for Obama) decide to come out of the closet en masse in the wake of Hoosier/Tar Heel Tuesday -- which I suppose is possible, but I think it's unlikely -- or, again, unless Clinton just plain runs out of money, I don't see any "doors" being "closed" yet, and certainly not if Obama loses Indiana by any margin.

In fact, oddly enough, I think Obama's back may be, in a certain sense, more "against the wall" than Clinton's. If he loses Indiana and, let's say, scores a weaker-than-expected victory in North Carolina (let's not even contemplate the horrific prospect of a loss there), the media narrative will turn irrevocably against him for the rest of the primary season, and things could get very ugly. The rest of the calendar is almost all Hillary territory, with no significant Obama "firewall" opportunities. Tuesday is his last chance to even try and force her from the race. If she survives to spin another day, Obama's "run out the clock" strategy is going to become increasingly difficult to maintain through several more weeks of news cycles. The MSM will increasingly portray the race as having no clear winner, with Obama winning the early races but losing all the late races because of Wrightgate and so forth (never mind that geography and demography are way, way more important than "momentum" or scandals or other shifting events in the campaign; the media likes its storylines chronological, dammit). Hillary's "popular vote" arguments will gain ever-increasing traction, and Obama's process-based rebuttals will look increasingly desperate (no matter how correct they are). Michigan and Florida will be front-and-center. And the race will most definitely go on into June, at least.

The only way Obama can even hope to prevent all that, in my judgment, is to win Indiana on Tuesday. A "narrow loss" will not cut it.

P.S. Incidentally, here's a good analysis of what's probably causing Obama's exaggerated exit-poll numbers. (Hint: it's not the Bradley Effect.) The article also contains a good explanation of why some leaks Pennsylvania had Obama up 5, while others had him down 4.

Comments

[Youngblai]

I've said it before and I'll say it again--Tina Turner, steel cage, chainsaws. Only way this is ending before August is if Obama blinks.

Which, quite frankly, I think I could see happening.

[Alasdair]

Youngblai - Obama only blinks if whoever is doing his SuperAnimatronics causes him to do so ...

He's sounding more and more like a super-post-graduate Jenny Craig version of Al Gore ...

[Sandy Underpants]

Hillary lost like 11 contests in a row and didn't quit, why in the world would she quit after losing a couple of the most worthless states in the country?

[copndor]

WTF!? Solely in virtue of the fact that Indiana and North Carolina played no role in producing Sandy Underpants, Indiana and North Carolina are worthwhile states.

[Sandy Underpants]

Well that's not the ONLY reason, but a fairly good point, nonetheless.