Could Obama-Nunn win Georgia?

When I learned yesterday that Bob Barr, the former Republican congressman from Georgia, had won the Libertarian nomination for president, I promptly called my parents and, getting their answering machine, left a message for my dad in which I wondered aloud whether there are any plausible Democratic vice-presidential options from the state of Georgia. The rationale behind my question was the notion, which I also mentioned here yesterday, that the Peach State could be unusually competitive thanks to the combination of: a) Barr's candidacy taking away Republican votes and b) record African-American turnout causing lots of Democratic votes. Thus, the thinking goes, a veep candidate from Georgia could conceivably put Obama over the top. And it's hard to imagine McCain winning the presidency without the 15 electoral votes from Georgia.

Well, the answer to my question is: yes, there is indeed a plausible Democratic vice-presidential option from Georgia. His name is Sam Nunn. Here's what Politico has to say about him:

[A]fter leaving politics in the 1990s, [Nunn] has...appeal as an independent-minded foreign policy/military elder statesman. ... [He] chaired the Senate Armed Services Committee, served on the Intelligence Committee and authored bipartisan legislation creating programs against nuclear proliferation (with Republican Sen. Dick Lugar) and reorganizing the Joint Chiefs of Staff (with Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater). ... Nunn holds positions at various national security organizations and is a professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech.

Nunn has the advantage of helping the Democrats make a play for Georgia. Since Bill Clinton narrowly carried Georgia in 1992, the state has gone Republican, but by inconsistent margins. This election could be the perfect storm for Democrats to turn Georgia blue: Obama likely would inspire high turnout among African-Americans (who represent 30 percent of Georgia’s population); McCain might suffer low turnout among religious conservatives long skeptical of him; and the just-announced Libertarian candidacy of Bob Barr, a recent Republican member of Congress from northern Georgia, could siphon conservative votes from McCain. With this confluence of forces working for the Democrats, Nunn joining the ticket could take Obama over the top in the ninth-largest state.

Five Thirty-Eight gives Obama a 5% chance of winning Georgia, though that's based on old polls that don't factor Barr into the equation. Anyway, what would that percentage rise to if Nunn were on the ticket? 20%? 25%? Perhaps more to the point: is there any realistic chance of Obama-Nunn carrying Georgia in an election where Obama needs it (i.e., a non-landslide)?

Comments

[Mad Max, Esquire]

Nobody knows who Sam Nunn is anymore. He would be like Jack Kemp in '96. Everyone thought Jack Kemp was the second coming. Then, when he was picked by Dole to be VP, the country let out a collective yawn. I imagine this would be the case with Nunn as well.

[Joe Loy]

"...getting their answering machine, left a message for my dad in which I wondered aloud whether there are any plausible Democratic vice-presidential options from the state of Georgia."

Bah. Stupid AT&T Voicemail didn't Record it. Fie. :} Had we connected, I'd have immediately told you that Yes, of Course, probably the Best option among all the Mentionees ~ Bob Barr or No Bob Barr ~ has Always been Precisely the one from Georgia.

Granted, the Sam Nunn Option becomes at least Marginally even better, in terms of potential Electoral math, With Barr than Without that worthy :} ~~ especially since (a) Georgia IS one the the 28 states in which the LP already Has on-ballot Status; and (b) the very Impurities which generated such Ferocity of the opposition to Barr at the LP Convention ~ e.g. his Past record of support for the War on Drugs, the USA Patriot Act, the federal Defense of Marriage Act, and the prohibition of the practice of Wicca in the Military ~ will likely Appeal to Georgia Republicans disenchanted with McCain.

But by far the more Significant reasons for Obama to Run with Nunn are, in Ascending order of importance, that (1) Sam will turn 70 in September, which brings full Maturity to the ticket; (2) Sam's record is that of a center/right Democrat, which brings Balance; (3) Sam is a Military-&-Foreign-Policy Expert, which brings ~ That; and (4) Sam is eminently well-qualified to Be the President, should the need arise.

[JT]

Sam Nunn was a great senator, but he left the senate after he voted against the first gulf war. I would think that at least a few people in Georgia still hold that against him.

[Alasdair]

As I recall, Sam Nunn also was a major force in the adotpion of "Don't ask; don't tell" which will not endear such a ticket to at least one of the Dem party's splinter/victim group components ...

[JT]

Nunn came out against letting homosexuals in the military and got in a huge fight with Clinton about it.

[Youngblai]

I think Nunn would do major damage to Obama's "change" meme. Moreover, Nunn would be an oppo gold mine--the man made more than enough enemies doing dumb stuff in the Senate. Slightly (like, maybe 5%) increasing the chances of carrying Georgia would not counterbalance this, in my opinion.