T.S. Arthur forms

As foreshadowed below, Tropical Storm Arthur has formed -- one day before the "official" start of the Atlantic season -- from the remnants of Pacific T.S. Alma. It was actually designated a T.S. while over the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm out and about right now; details when I get home.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: Arthur didn't form over land; it formed "near the coast of Belize," according to the 1:00 PM special advisory that designated it. It was over land by the time the 2:00 PM advisory was issued, which is what I was reading when I wrote this post on my cell phone.

No word yet from Alan Sullivan considers the NHC's designation of Arthur "count-padding." Anyway...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND LATER TODAY...

... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

After the expected weakening, Arthur could re-strengthen in the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico, according to Eric Berger and Dr. Jeff Masters.

Comments

[Alan Sullivan]

Hi, Brendan. Thanks for the link. I did indeed get a word up on count-padding, just before I saw your post.

Arthur looks real enough. As I said in the post, it could easily have become a hurricane, if there had been a little sea-room. Instead it could become one of those wet, slow depressions that kills more people than a fast moving cat-four.