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By Brendan Loy
Just landed in Nashville. It looks like the exit polls were right, for once: a close contest in IN, an Obama landslide in NC. Nice! ... Incidentally, my contrary predictive post below appeared about
an hour after I sent it. Odd.
By CNN
Sen. Barack Obama will win the North Carolina Democratic primary, CNN projects.
By Brendan Loy
Huffington Post says it's Hillary by 5 in IN, Obama by 12 in NC. I predict the actual numbers will be roughly opposite that. She'll win by double digits, he won't, and she'll benefit from another
fake "comeback."
By Brendan Loy
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By Brendan Loy
The polls are closed in most of Indiana. North Carolina will soon follow suit. As mentioned below, I'll be in flight from 7:00 PM to 9:30 PM EST, and driving from Nashville to Knoxville after that, so my ability to post blog updates will be extremely limited. But this is your thread to chat about the results as they trickle out. Comment away!
By Brendan Loy
The polls are open in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. They'll close tonight at 6:00 PM EST in most of the Hoosier State, 7:00 PM in a few western Indiana counties, 7:30 PM in the vast majority of North Carolina, and 8:30 PM in a few N.C. counties.
The RCP poll averages show Clinton up by 5 in Indiana, and Obama up by 8 in North Carolina, so a "split" seems the most likely outcome. But who knows, maybe we'll see an upset tonight. What are your predictions? And what will the outcomes mean? Does an Obama sweep force Hillary out of the race before West Virginia? Does a "split" keep us going to the convention, or just to early June? What if Hillary pulls off a sweep? (Here are my thoughts.)
Whatever your predictions, and whatever your rooting interests, remember: the early, leaked exit polls mean nothing. If Drudge comes out with another late-afternoon "EXIT POLL DRAMA" bulletin, showing Obama leading Indiana by a small margin and North Carolina by a huge one, don't buy it. Obama always does worse in the actual results than in the unweighted exit polls. So don't get excited, and don't buy into this crap again:
[Pennsylvania's] early exit polls had suggested a nail-biter that suggested Hillary might be finished. Yet, much like Super Tuesday, Hillary made a "comeback" over the course of the night, as her vote margin gradually widened. Why, it was almost as though Obama had Hillary on the ropes and she fought him off with pure grit and determination. Impressive! She's back!
That's happened four separate times now: New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, Texas & Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Not again! Enough! The line must be drawn here! Let there be no unearned, fraudulent "spin" boost for Hillary this time, due to poor media memory of recent exit-poll history. PAY ATTENTION, MSM!!!
Anyway... my flight leaves Denver at 7:00 PM EST and lands at 9:25, so it's quite likely that neither state will have been "called" when I take off, and both will have been "called" by the time I land. And, upon landing, I have a 2 1/2-hour drive from Nashville back to Knoxville. So, needless to say, I won't be doing my usual election-night liveblogging. But I might post an update from the airport if there's anything to report (e.g., meaningless exit-poll leaks), and regardless, I've set up an "open thread" to automatically post at 6:00 PM. Also, CNN Breaking News alerts should auto-post a few minutes after Wolf Blitzer, Wolf Blitzer calls each state.
Goooo Obama, Beeeeat Expectations!
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