Pennsylvania open thread #2

That's all from me, kiddies. I gotta go to work early tomorrow, so I'm turning off the TV, shutting down the computer, and getting ready for bed. Thanks for all the traffic, and by all means, feel free to keep commenting as the candidates make their speeches, and as the results -- and the spin -- continue to roll in.

Comments

[Andrew]

No matter the final numbers of HRC's victory, I'm quite happy to see the tragicomedy of the Democratic nomination process continue for the foreseeable future. Hooray!

[Andrew]

And remember folks, negative campaigning doesn't work!!!!

[copndor]

I'm glad the myth is still alive that this nomination process is hurting the Democrats, a "tragicomedy," as you put it. Meanwhile the democrats are holding huge rallies and registering record numbers of voters for November. The Republicans? Not so much.

[Andrew]

Looking at CNN's exit poll data, Obama beat HRC 61% to 39% in voters 18-29, but they only were 12% of the vote. Meanwhile, HRC beat Obama by a similar margin among voters 60+, but they were 32% of the vote. I hope these trends hold up and Obama ends up with the nomination, as yet another Dem will go down in flames banking on the black vote and the youth vote to propel their candidacy. Other negative trends: Obama lost the religious vote by a wide margin, and got killed in the Catholic vote. A higher percentage of Dems would not vote for Obama in November than would not vote for HRC, and more Dems defect to McCain if Obama is the candidate. Plus, while Obama is supposedly the candidate with greater crossover appeal, he loses the moderates to HRC and wins the liberals. Obama is weaker with the unions and weaker away from urban centers. Also bad for Democrats in general: Iraq falls to a distant second as the most important issue, behind the economy.

Overall, it looks like Obama is not aging well in the blistering spotlight, now that he has to rely on more than just pure oratorical skill to survive.

[Joe Mama]

Good thing Obama "kept it real" with all those appreciative gun-toting religionists, or Hillary's margin would be even bigger.

[copndor]

Obama was recently down by 20 points in Pennsylvania. That pretty much deflates any argument that Obama is somehow "slipping."
Meanwhile, the notion that there will be a mass exodus of votes from the losing Democratic candidate to McCain is plausible. Yet, I recall hearing the same argument when McCain was getting close to the nomination, and that doesn't seem to have panned out at all. Of course, the dynamic changes entirely when the race becomes a Republican vs. a Democrat, so I wouldn't count too much on those crossover polls.
My bet is to wait until McCain panders to the conservative base when he picks his VP. A Democrat might consider voting for McCain, but if he, in his 70's picks Romney as his VP, he can kiss a lot of the moderate votes goodbye. But if he doesn't pander to the base...

[Roy Cone]

Despite tonight's loss, Obama will ultimately win the Dem nomination. He simply has, and will continue to get, lots of campaign money. He is the new teflon candidate. His supporters, current and new, ignore his roots as a part of the corrupt Chicago Democratic machine. Clinton supporters will vote for him as long as she tells them to.

[Joe Mama]

I'm glad the myth is still alive that this nomination process is hurting the Democrats...

The fact that the geriatric Republican nominee who supports the Iraq war in an indisputably Democrat election cycle is now polling even with either Clinton or Obama might have a little something to do with perpetuating that "myth".

[Roy Cone]

The Dems will unite come convention time, because they realize they'll lose in November if they don't. Once the party unites behind one candidate, that person will look stronger than McCain, who has already peaked in popularity. This is a marathon, and the Dems will prevail in the final phase of the campaign this fall.

[Kenichi Mifune]

The Dems will unite come convention time, because they realize they'll lose in November if they don't. Once the party unites behind one candidate, that person will look stronger than McCain, who has already peaked in popularity. This is a marathon, and the Dems will prevail in the final phase of the campaign this fall.

[Joe Loy]

I didn't hear it explicitly stated on CNN or MSNBC; but Brit Hume & Michael Barone on Fox News did repeatedly declare, prior to their Calling it for Clinton, that there was a strong prior pattern of Exitpoll Overperformance by Obama which was causing them to be very Cautious about the exitpolls' indication of a squeakyclose contest. / I didn't hear them Credit you; but somebody must have been Reading you. (Maybe it was Rove. :)

[Jim]

The massive new registration is definitely a plus for the democrats. While I like to mock Clinton supporters for her staying in, in the end, I think it will be more of a plus than a minus.

[Becky]

If it's a marathon, would you put your money on the spunky septugenarian or the exhausted 40-something black guy coming off an exhausting battle?

[Brendan Loy]

Are you suggesting that black people are better marathon runners than white people? What are you implying, that blacks are only good at athletics? RACIST!

;)

[Joe Mama]

Can we please use a less offensive term than "black guy"?

[Angrier and Angrier]

"Spunky" sounds too much like "uppity" to me. I'm offended.

[anti aging skin care]

It has been suggested that with age“ decreased expression of the transporter for beta- alanine as precursor to carnosine, or a decrease in carnosine sythetase” (13) which quite possibly account for the noticeable decline in intramuscular carnosine levels found in older/ elderly adults (12, 14). More strikingly this contrast was observed in type II muscle fibers (13) and as the result of ageing and denervation (15). Could beta- alanine supplementation help slow or even stop age related muscle wasting.

[copndor]

It has been suggested that with age decreased amount of life can quite possibly account for death. More strikingly this contrast was observed in everyone and as the result of ageing and loss of life. Could life help slow or even stop age related death?