Obama gaining ground in Pennsylvania
Something strange is happening en route to Hillary Clinton's presumed Reverend Wright-fueled romp in Ed Rendell's not-ready-to-vote-for-a-black-guy Keystone State: Barack Obama is gaining ground, again.
Yesterday, a new Rasmussen poll showed Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania down to 5 points, from 10% a week ago in the same poll. I held off posting anything, because one shouldn't put too much stock in a single poll. But later yesterday, SurveyUSA showed Hillary's lead shrinking from 19% three weeks ago to 12% now. Today, Quinnipiac has her lead at 9%, down from 12% two weeks ago.
And then, of course, there's a one labeled by Drudge as a "SHOCK POLL," the Public Policy Polling survey that shows Obama ahead by 2%. The same poll had Hillary leading by 26 points just over two weeks ago -- a 28-point swing in 16 days!
According to TPM, PPP "has had a solid record this year." Still, TPM says, and I agree, that this Obama-by-2 poll "has to be seen as an outlier, though it is important to note that [it] is the most recent survey." It should also be noted that the RCP average now has Clinton up just 6%.
Relatedly, Mark Halperin looks at What Hillary Clinton Has to Do to Really “Win” Pennsylvania.
Oh, and here are some interesting Electoral College maps, again showing Hillary and Obama having very different strengths (and weaknesses). They appear to confirm something my dad said, way back before Super Tuesday, which I initially questioned but now whole-heartedly agree with: that Obama, electorally, has "both more upside and more downside potential."
Finally, on a totally unrelated note, it looks like Washington state is headed for another Gregoire-Rossi barnburner.
UPDATE: Commenter "yea" writes:
who could have predicted this would happen? obama is trailing by a huge amount in a state he's never been to. he shows up in the state and the margin starts to decrease slowly. all of a sudden he surges and even takes the lead in a few polls. things stabilze as the election gets closer, and then there is a natural drift back to hillary that allows her to win the state. she wins the state be a smaller margin than anyone thought possible 4-5 weeks ago, yet by a bigger margin than most of the late polls indicated. hillary then claims the momentum.
I'm not sure, though, if the Clintons will be able to get the media to buy that load of bull this time around. I'm not totally putting it past them (or rather, past the media to be that dumb, again), but at some point, the reality of, well, reality, as opposed to spin-based unreality, has to take hold, doesn't it?
Look, the following is a fact: whatever barely plausible case Hillary might currently, arguably have that she can still catch up and win the nomination, she will have no such case when April 23 dawns, unless she won Pennsylvania the previous day in a massive blowout (like 15+ points) and thus earns a huge delegate edge there. The delegates to make up Obama's lead have to come from somewhere -- they can't all be uncommitted superdelegates, there aren't enough of those -- and she's running out of chances. She can't beat Obama by running out the clock with a series of delegate draws and claiming "momentum." Momentum is meaningless unless, at some point, it gets her delegates.
I think this is a case of fool me once (New Hampshire), shame on me; fool me twice (Super Tuesday), shame on me; fool me thrice (Texas & Ohio), shame on me; but I'll be damned if you're going to fool me a fourth time. :)