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I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

I'm a big-time sports fan, a politics, media & law junkie, an astronomy buff, a weather nerd, an Apple aficionado, a Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter fanatic, and an all-around dork. My blog is best-known for its coverage of Hurricane Katrina, but I blog about anything and everything that interests me.

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« Predictions? | Main | Pennsylvania open thread »

And so it begins...

As expected:

Deep breaths, people. Deep breaths. Repeat after me: Obama always does well in the leaked, unweighted exit polls. He then does worse in the actual results than in the exit polls. This has happened over and over and over again. We should no longer be surprised by it. These numbers are therefore completely meaningless. They ought not alter the "expectations game" one iota. If Hillary wins by around 10 points, it will not be a "comeback." It will not be a "surprise." It will be the expected result. These numbers do not change that fact. At. All.

Are you listening, media punditry? Or will you fall into the same trap you did on Super Tuesday (when exit polls had Obama winning New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Arizona -- all of which he lost handily -- and in a dead heat in California) and on March 4 (when exit polls had Obama winning Texas and Ohio), of giving Hillary Clinton undue credit for fully-expected victories?


UPDATE: National Review's Campaign Spot has Obama ahead by 5 points, 52-47.

Again: meaningless! The only reasonable assumption, based on past experience, is still that Hillary will win by a wide margin.

Also remember Politico's Pennsylvania-specific cautionary note about the actual results, once those start trickling in: "Don’t be fooled by early results. The cities and suburbs usually report their returns first, which gives the candidate favored in those areas a quick –- and sometimes fleeting –- lead. The conservative-leaning small towns through the center of the state usually filter in much later in the evening. ... So Obama could show a lead in the early results, but it might be short-lived."

Again, deep breaths, people.


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Actually, the folks at the media decision desks do follow this, and know how to weight the numbers, but they are not the folks writing the breathless headlines. In fact over here (I work at one of the networks) they are eating dinner right now, looking at the numbers, and more importantly - where the numbers come from, so they can work their models. This is normal. At this point, all it gives them is a clue how it will go, and maybe enough of a clue by 8:00 that the can call at poll close - not "how much" someone won by, but if they won

Some say the world will end in fire;
Some say in ice

Clinton-Obama will end in fire.

Tehehe. The three "L" lama, he's Obama.

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