A little piece of history

Digging through some old computer files, looking for job-related stuff, I stumbled upon a text file titled "message to drudge - katrina," dated Friday, August 26, 2005, at 10:23 PM. That would be about 8 1/2 hours after my oft-quoted "New Orleans in peril" post (i.e., the one I read aloud in Spike Lee's movie), less than a half-hour after my post titled "Models 'cluster' on near-worst-case track" -- which accompanied the final westward shift of the National Hurricane Center's official forecast track, which ended up being almost exactly accurate even though it was ~60 hours out -- and an hour before my frequently referenced "get the hell out" post.

Even as all that was going on, the Drudge Report was still focused on the possibility of another Florida landfall (recall that the Sunshine State had been hit by six hurricanes in the preceding 14 months or so, including Katrina's first landfall on the peninsula), and much of the media was following suit, focusing on the Florida panhandle instead of the looming New Orleans doomsday scenario, despite the clear change in the forecast over the preceding 12 hours. Exasperated, I wrote to Drudge using his anonymous tips form thingy. I don't think I've ever published my message before, and I thought it might be of some mild interest, so I've posted it after the jump.

About Katrina ... You have to change your headline!!! The story is NOT Florida!!! The story is New Orleans!!! The governor of Louisiana has declared a state of emergency:

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=4836

This hurricane could destroy the city!!!

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

Evaucations need to begin VERY soon if they are going to have any chance of getting people out.

The official track calls for a landfall along the MS/AL border, but that's on the eastern edge of the computer model guidance. The forecast will very likely shift further west tonight and tomorrow. Check out this computer model, showing a LANDFALL ON NEW ORLEANS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_072m.gif

More computer models:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

Also... this hurricane could cause a SERIOUS OIL PRICE INCREASE, depending on where it hits.

Comments

[Tbone]

Sadly, I don't think the MSM has changed much when it comes to hurricane forecasting. They have an important role to provide timely, accurate information to the public but to often focus on the sensational.

It still amazes me Brendan that you were sounding the first real warning bells on Katrina from this little corner of the blogosphere.

[Brendan Loy]

In fairness, several weatherbloggers (particularly Dr. Jeff Masters and Charles Fenwick) were sounding the alarm even before I was, or at roughly the same time. The main thing I had going for me was an Instalanche. :)

Also, the National Hurricane Center was very much on the ball, as I tried to emphasize by mentioning the remarkable accuracy of their 60-hour forecast. Plenty of people with greater weather expertise than I had their hair on fire by Friday night. The problem was with the media and all levels of government (NHC aside), which in many cases failed to grasp the enormity of the situation until way too much time had passed, such that the preparations for the storm (as distinct from the also-flawed response to the storm) were not nearly as comprehensive as they should have been, particularly with regard to evacuation of people who didn't have the means to get themselves out. Everyone involved is incredibly lucky that the consequences of the inadequate preparation/evacuation weren't much more dire -- something like 50,000 people were ultimately rescued from their rooftops, and the vast majority of those people probably would have died if the storm hadn't weakened at the last minute and/or had veered off to the west a couple dozen miles.

[doctorj]

Brendan,
I remember well reading your warnings before Katrina. For me, you were one of the first to report the change in direction. I live just north of Lake Ponchatrain and I am a native New Orleanian. My mother lives on the MS Gulf Coast (Pass Christian). In fact you asked me to keep reporting to you during the storm. Sady I was unable to do so because we lost electricity and were without it and communicaions for 3 weeks. Thanks for the heads up. As for the Drudge tips thingy, I used it to tell Drudge that the Corps of Engineers admitted their negligence in the building of the levees.

[heather]

so what happened? did drudge follow up on your warning? when?