Ye Olde Super Tuesday open thread
On this "original" Super Tuesday ("Super Tuesday Classic," perhaps? Nah, I think I prefer "Ye Olde Super Tuesday"), I'm going to do the same thing I did on "Super Duper Tuesday" last month: I'll keep an "open thread" on top of the homepage all night, so y'all can comment in one place and not have the conversation scroll rapidly down the page as new CNN alerts and other posts appear. Of course, you're free to comment on other posts as well.
Anyway, new posts will appear below.
The die is cast.
Posted by: Condor | Mar 4, 2008 3:05:18 PM
To get the conversation started... anyone for some predictions?
I'll say:
Texas (primary only): Obama 51-48
Ohio: Clinton 53-46
Vermont: Obama 61-37
Rhode Island: Clinton 50-49
Oh, and Ron Paul cracks 20% in Vermont's GOP primary. Because them Vermonters is crazy. ;)
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Mar 4, 2008 3:07:10 PM
Texas Primary: Obama 55 Klinton 44
Ohio Primary: Obama 50 Klinton 49 Canada's Conservative Party 0
Vermont: Obama 66 Klinton 33
Rhode Island: Obama 54 Klinton 45
Posted by: Condor | Mar 4, 2008 3:16:53 PM
Kos says Obama will win Texas by 12. He claims, "I've got a good sense of the dynamics in the state." His prediction is in keeping with his February 21 post, which predicted that Obama's "ground game" will cause him to seriously outperform the polls (as he did in Wisconsin). We'll see.
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Mar 4, 2008 3:20:44 PM
In the piece by Noam Scheiber, linked by Brendan in the "Required Reading for Horse-Race Junkies" there is a reference to "NAFTA-gate." Does anyone know what he is talking about? He makes it sound as if it is contributing to Hillary's momentum but I have not heard of it before...
Posted by: Golden Bear | Mar 4, 2008 3:41:51 PM
Here is the quote from Scheiber..."Obama wins both Ohio and Texas. I see almost no chance of this happening after NAFTA-gate."
Posted by: Golden Bear | Mar 4, 2008 3:45:42 PM
This video tells you everything you need to know about NAFTA-gate:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/03/clearing_up_obamas_canadian_pr.html
Posted by: Condor | Mar 4, 2008 3:46:58 PM
texas:
obama 53%
clinton 46%
ohio:
clinton 54%
obama 45%
vermont:
obama 58%
clinton 40%
rhode island:
clinton 62%
obama 37%
Posted by: yea | Mar 4, 2008 4:22:02 PM
Clinton narrowly wins Texas (primary only), wins Ohio by 7.
Oh: My precinct in Houston is Upper Kirby, a kind of yuppie middle-class professional/just-out-of-med-school/just starting in law area south of posh River Oaks.
The area set aside for the Dem Caucus is the local Lamar high school, either in the gym or the expansive adjacent lobby.
The GOP? An office boardroom.
Posted by: texasyank | Mar 4, 2008 5:35:51 PM
I guess that's appropriate. The GOP is where you go to get business done, the Dem. party is where you go for childish games that lead nowhere if you don't eventually grow up.
:P
Posted by: 4-7 | Mar 4, 2008 6:02:04 PM
TX: Clinton 50.5, Obama 49.5
OH: Clinton 52, Obama 48
RI: Clinton 54, Obama 46
VT: Obama 68, Clinton 32
Posted by: Dave | Mar 4, 2008 6:28:56 PM
Obama wins Vermont! I'm shocked, SHOCKED!
Wolf Blitzer reminds us, referring to the delegate allocation, that "it's a proportionate, proportionate distribution."
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Mar 4, 2008 7:02:01 PM
How important is the "big state" argument coming from the Clinton Camp? IMHO it is hard to ignore...
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 8:16:58 PM
It's crap, Marty. Most of Hillary's "big states" mean NOTHING in November. States like Virginia, Iowa and Missouri matter much more than states like New York, California, New Jersey, Texas, etc. I'll give you Ohio (though we don't know yet who won it). But as a whole, this argument is crap, crap, crap. I addressed it in detail here.
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Mar 4, 2008 8:21:54 PM
It looks like Hillary is going to win Ohio and Rhode Island and Obama is going to win (handily) Vermont and Texas.
Posted by: Mad Max, Esquire | Mar 4, 2008 8:30:51 PM
Brendan,
I have to disagree. The majority of 'big states' contain people from all walks of life. Iowa, Virginia, and Mizz are predominantly 'white'. I know at least Iowa is b/c I was there for the caucus this year and I couldn't see one minority voter for miles. States like NY, NJ, and Cal have a nice distribution of whites, blacks, hispanics, etc.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Clinton camp uses this 'big state' argument as a major talking point leading up to my state...PA.
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 8:36:37 PM
A disturbing bit of exit polling just reported on MSNBC....
1 in 5 voters said race played a part in their decision. Of those people 8/10 voted for Hillary.
Myself, I am torn between Hilldog and O. But it's not a matter of race.
Does anyone else find this disturbing?
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 8:38:20 PM
OSU is giving Purdue a run for their money with 7:00 left.
And I hate Brent Musberger.
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 8:58:45 PM
Brendan: I actually figure on nearly identical numbers myself.
Posted by: Jim | Mar 4, 2008 9:13:34 PM
Marty, have I got a drinking game for you. Try the second clip from the top:
http://www.thiswebsitestinks.com/clips.asp?type=extended
Posted by: MHiggo | Mar 4, 2008 9:19:07 PM
MHiggo -
Thanks! That is going to come in handy in the next few weeks/NCAA football season. So awesome.
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 9:25:38 PM
Earlier this season, Brendan posted pics of the polls in TN. Here's a post about voting with my iPhone in TX.
Posted by: Jim Hu | Mar 4, 2008 9:51:55 PM
Marty:
My pleasure, pardner. :)
Posted by: MHiggo | Mar 4, 2008 9:53:54 PM
58-40 Clinton in Ohio with 25% of the precincts reporting... Revival of the Bradley effect?
Posted by: Dave | Mar 4, 2008 9:59:11 PM
I think Karl Rove has a MacBook Air!
Posted by: Jim Hu | Mar 4, 2008 10:09:30 PM
Rove with a MacBook Air, Dmitry Medvedev with an iPhone -- coincidence... or conspiracy?
Posted by: Anonymous Hoosier | Mar 4, 2008 10:13:26 PM
Fox News had a MacBook Air on the Karl Rove Channel!
Posted by: Condor | Mar 4, 2008 10:17:34 PM
Olbermann just said Ohio won't be fully counted until 4:30 AM.
W
T
F
Why does Ohio suck so much balls?
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 10:25:24 PM
Ohio should get stripped of its delegates for sucking.
Posted by: Condor | Mar 4, 2008 10:33:07 PM
Keith Olbermann should be shot into space so that he can be absorbed by the sun.
Posted by: 4-7 | Mar 4, 2008 10:36:53 PM
There has got to be some good jokes about two Democrats complaining about voter disenfranchisement in a party primary. Two democrat adversaries walk into a bar . . .
Posted by: 4-7 | Mar 4, 2008 10:38:20 PM
...and nobody cares 4-7.
Posted by: kcatnd | Mar 4, 2008 10:40:47 PM
The time has come for Olbermann and O'Reilly to fight to the death, preferably of both of them.
Posted by: Condor | Mar 4, 2008 10:41:17 PM
Don't have tivo, so I tried to take a pic of Rove's laptop with my iPhone.
Posted by: Not Dmitri Medvedev's sockpuppet | Mar 4, 2008 10:43:51 PM
LOL, not-sockpuppet-Jim. Looking at the county votes and maps, I can't see Obama making up the gap in Ohio. FNC is hinting they'll make the call soon.
Posted by: Anonymous Hoosier | Mar 4, 2008 10:52:04 PM
Ron Paul has been declared the winner in the primary for his House seat by a large margin.
Posted by: Jim Hu | Mar 4, 2008 11:04:37 PM
Looks like Hill is still in this, and will fight right up to the Democratic convention. The Dems could remain divided over the Obama vs. Clinton battle. As for McCain, he can just sit back and prepare for the general election by taking notes on the Obama vs. Clinton bickering, and raising more money while remaining compliant with fundraising laws. Because of the aforementioned division, the presidential race is McCain's to lose, but he'll still have to play to win.
Posted by: Wurf | Mar 4, 2008 11:04:54 PM
I'm just excited that my states primary will finally mean something! Go PA!!! DECIDE THE NOMINATION!!!!
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 11:07:44 PM
Speech time!!!
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 11:08:49 PM
Hey, aren't those the states Howard Dean promised to win?
Posted by: Anonymous Hoosier | Mar 4, 2008 11:21:18 PM
Echoes of Edwards in her speech?
The blind transvestite veteran......
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 11:23:38 PM
"Yes we will"
WTF? Come on Hilldog.
Posted by: Marty West | Mar 4, 2008 11:30:22 PM
Michele Obama is not proud of you, Ohio.
And now she's looking in your direction, Texas....
Posted by: Joe Mama | Mar 4, 2008 11:38:51 PM
Texas 70, Nebraska 66 in a game as close as 1 in the final minute. Wonder if that had any distracting effect on the caucuses...
Posted by: Anonymous Hoosier | Mar 4, 2008 11:48:50 PM
If Nebrasketball is distracting people and keeping them from voting, I'll be in Australia asking for asylum by Friday.
There are people just now waking up from the Barry Collier era....
Posted by: MHiggo | Mar 5, 2008 12:39:57 AM
Annnnnnnd . . .
FOX calls Texas for Hillary.
Don't wanna hear about caucuses, delegate margin, or how many delegates left.
This night was HUGE for Hillary.
And we so got a ballgame, gang.
Posted by: Texasyank | Mar 5, 2008 12:49:15 AM
"Don't wanna hear about caucuses, delegate margin, or how many delegates left."
aka, why this only delays the inevitable.
Posted by: USC 2L | Mar 5, 2008 12:56:22 AM
USC 2L, yeah, probably it does.
Still huge for Hillary.
Posted by: Texasyank | Mar 5, 2008 1:11:09 AM
Too many links in a blockquote - last comment trapped in the approval queue. Shorter version: I'm not sure about the Red Phone. See why here
Posted by: Jim Hu | Mar 5, 2008 1:11:29 AM
Don't know if anyone is still watching CNN but Bill Schneider just raised his fist in triumph and declared "Senior Power!!" in explaining Clinton's Texas win. It was kinda cute in that old-man way he has. Of course this also misses the fact that McCain is a senior himself and seniors will love him in the general election. But at least Hillary's got that going for her right now.
Posted by: Lauren | Mar 5, 2008 1:14:12 AM