Will Hillary march forth?

The New York Times's election blog explains the stakes of tomorrow's big vote:

[F]our primary contests on Tuesday could extinguish Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s hope of overtaking Senator Barack Obama. ...

Yet the hinge could still swing either way. If Mrs. Clinton carries the behemoths of Ohio and Texas — despite her opponent’s momentum and financial advantage — Mr. Obama may rue this week as both an end and a beginning.

Specifically, Tuesday could be the end of his coronation as Democratic standard-bearer and the beginning of a wrenching springtime struggle. With Clinton victories on Tuesday, neither political realities nor “delegate math” would preclude it.

As an explanation of that last line, the Times goes on to note that "[u]nless Mrs. Clinton quits, either candidate will need votes from the so-called superdelegates." Although that's technically true, it should be noted that there's a huge difference between needing a handful of superdelegates to shore up a clear pledged-delegate majority, versus needing a large majority of superdelegates to overturn a clear pledged-delegate majority. For instance, if Obama continues winning delegates at his current pace, he'd finish with a lead of 1,718 to 1,498. Out of the 820 superdelegates and Edwards delegates*, Obama would need just 306 (37.3%) while Clinton would need 526 (64.1%). How she could possibly convince nearly two-thirds of the unpledged delegates to buck the popular will is beyond me. So I think the "delegate math" is still a major problem for her.

Nevertheless, the Times is right in the big picture: if Obama doesn't land a knockout blow tomorrow, or at least a punch that starts a slow bleed which would get Hillary out of the race within 3-10 days, then this race is going to continue well into the spring. There's nothing on the calendar (with the exception of various low-profile delegate selection events that won't generate any momentum) between next Tuesday (Mississippi) and April 22 (Pennsylvania), so if Hillary isn't out of the race by, say, next Thursday, I can't see what would convince her to get out before late April.

(Hat tip, sorta, on the headline, to C. Stephen Ludlow.)

*This assumes that Edwards gets his 14 Iowa delegates, which is unlikely, as I explained here. But since the fate of those delegates remains uncertain, it makes sense to count them in the non-Clinton/Obama category for now.

P.S. Interesting aside: tomorrow is the original "Super Tuesday." The reason such phrases as "Super Duper Tuesday" arose to describe February 5 was to differentiate it from the true "Super Tuesday," March 4. But as more and more states moved their primaries to February 5, people simply stopped using the "Super Tuesday" label to describe March 4 and started applying it, sans "Duper," to February 5 instead. Yet here we are, on the eve of the original Super Tuesday, and it's more "super" than ever: the entire Democratic race hangs in the balance.

Comments

[Angrier and Angrier]

I haven't seen Cloverfield, so I don't know how they take out the monster. However, I imagine something along those lines will be required to get Hillary out of the race.

[Joe Loy]

"...if Obama doesn't land a knockout blow tomorrow, or at least a punch that starts a slow bleed which would get Hillary out of the race within 3-10 days, then this race is going to continue well into the spring...if Hillary isn't out of the race by, say, next Thursday, I can't see what would convince her to get out before late April."

Neither can I, nor can I see what really should so convince her.

Proceeding on your premise of a Hillary performance tomorrow sufficient to be ruled No Knockout nor unstanchable Bleedout, it looks to me like the the post-tomorrow Probabilities would then line up as follows, "wins" [sic :] listed chronologically for each candidate ~

Obama: Wyoming (caucuses), Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota. Clinton: Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico.

Among the serious candidates who in what I'd regard as Modern Times :} went All The Way To The Convention notwithstanding that their chances of finishing other than #2 on the Roll Call were plainly slim-to-None: 1960 (D), Lyndon B. Johnson; 1964 (R), William W. Scranton; 1968 (D), Eugene J. McCarthy; 1976 (R), Ronald Reagan; 1980 (D) Edward M. Kennedy; 1984 (D), Gary Hart; 1988 (D), Jesse Jackson.

Granted there's been (given my "serious candidates" criterion above) a bit of a Hiatus during the most recent Four cycles :> but why shouldn't Senator Clinton resume the venerable Fatlady's Song Tradition of howling 'til the Last dog is Hanged? ;} I say if it's Good enough for Huckster then it's good enough for Hil :>.

Btw most of the Runner-ups named above, plus several that I omitted so as to spare them the sheer numerical embarrassment, Fought On despite the knowledge that they would ~ and indeed Did ~ finish the rollcall Far Behind the winner. The outstanding exception, and the likely Proportional (& Tactical**) Template for an Obama-Clinton August Endgame, is Reagan '76:

▪ Gerald Ford (inc.) - 1,187 (52.57%)
▪ Ronald Reagan - 1,070 (47.39%)
▪ Elliot Richardson - 1 (0.04%)

**I say Tactical as well as Proportional because the above outcome was almost Perfectly predicted by the vote on a Reagan-sponsored last-minute Rules change (Yes 1,069, No 1,180) which would have required each candidate to disclose his choice of Runningmate before the presidential nomination rollcall. Since Reagan had already designated the veryliberal Sen. Richard Schweicker, R(? :)-PA, as his VP and had spent every day since such announcement trying to Mitigate the fierce Blowback from his own ranks, whilst net-gaining essentially Squat from the Other side, this proto-Clintonian unusual ;> parliamentary maneuvre, rather optimistically designed to somehow Force Ford into making a countervailingly Stupid error, was promptly, brilliantly & correctly dubbed "The Misery Loves Company Amendment" by the Fordies and summarily Shot down in a robust demonstration of their Modestly Mighty majority on the convention Floor. /// My Point here being, quite transparently :), that the foregoing is a plausible Model, substantively & statistically, for the probable & prophetic disposition of Hillary's putative Convention Challenge (in This particular thought experiment :) to the Credentials Committee's Report re the Ineligibility of her Hillaryite Michigan & Florida Rump Delegations to deposit their respective rumps in the Seats reserved for those two great States. :)

(Note: notwithstanding the rejection of the Misery Loves Company Amendment, the 1976 Repub VP Rollcall was decidedly nonunanimous. Bob Dole did obtain over 85% of the delegate vote but still, the redoubtable Jesse Helms fought Abstaining Status ;> to a draw at 103 votes each; and the sainted Mister Fuhbuckey (RIP) pulled Four. Many many others also Ran. :)

This concludes tonight's Premonitory saunter down Memory Lane & we return you now to the obligatory Coverage of tomorrow's dreary 4-state 2-Step. / But just Remember: come August, when Sen. Clinton tearfully declaims in Denver that she'd Thought it might be a shining City upon a Hil: you heard it here First. :)

[Alasdair]

Following upon Loy the Elder's analysis cum reminiscence, and its description remarkably close to an RPG, please allow me to inject the note that Gary Gygax failed his last Saving Throw today ... some details here ...

I wonder how Gary would have classified Senators Clinton and Obama, respectively ?

Chaotic Evil Level 13 Harpy Clinton, perhaps, with a Charisma of 1 or 2 ?

Neutral Neutral Level 2 MillardFillmore Obama, perhaps, yet with a Charisma of 14 or 15 ?

[Alasdair]

Oh - and before I forget ...

Since Senator Clinton is running second right now, shouldn't there be something like steaming third before she can march forth ?