Vols losing; Hilltoppers threatening

It looks like Louisville is about to beat Tennessee. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has mounted a big rally to pull within six points of UCLA with 7:07 left. GO HILLTOPPERS!!!

UPDATE: Louisville wins; Khalil Aboukhaled leads the pool. Jeff Belisle is second; Ryan Morgan drops to third. Full update after the UCLA-WKU game.

UPDATE 2: A valiant effort by Western Kentucky -- and damn, if that three-pointer rattles in, back when it was a four-point game with 5:17 left, who knows? -- but the Bruins win, 88-78. So it'll be UCLA vs. Xavier in the West Regional Final... just like my original bracket predicted (I had Xavier beating the Bruins and going all the way to the title game), before I changed it at the last minute to have UConn beating UCLA and going to the Final Four over the Musketeers. Harumph.

UPDATE 3: As mentioned earlier, Khalil Aboukhaled of South Bend, Indiana (a.k.a. "fezafou") leads the 13th annual Living Room Times men's basketball pool presented by the UCLA Bruins. He has 247 out of a possible 312 points. However, his chances of winning the pool are statistically quite small -- just 0.4% -- in large part because his predicted national champion, Georgetown, has already been eliminated, as has another of his Final Four teams, Pitt.

The mathematical favorite to win the pool is Jeff Belisle of Brooklyn, New York, currently in second place with 242 points. He has a 14.5% chance to win. Belisle is followed in the current standings by Ryan Morgan of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, who had a 14-point lead at the beginning of the day, but went just 2-for-4 on Thursday, having picked neither Xavier nor Louisville. He has 241 points, and a 10.4% chance to win.

Dan Port, Lisa Velte, Bill Rece and Mark Gardner are tied for fourth with 239 points apiece. Alex Whitfield is eighth with 237, Joseph Hiegel ninth with 235, and rounding out the top ten are Kevin Hauschulz, Chuck Wessell, and brother & sister Matt Thomsen and Danielle Thomsen, all tied with 234 points each. Hauschulz and Danielle Thomsen are already mathematically eliminated from winning the pool, however. Here's a full list of possible outcomes.

Complete standings here and after the jump.

13th annual men's NCAA pool presented by the UCLA Bruins
1. Khalil Aboukhaled - 247
2. Jeff Belisle - 242
3. Ryan Morgan - 241
4. Dan Port - 239
4. Lisa Velte - 239
4. Bill Reece - 239
4. Mark Gardner - 239
8. Alex Whitfield - 237
9. Joseph Hiegel - 235
10. Kevin Hauschulz - 234
10. Chuck Wessell - 234
10. Danielle Thomsen - 234
10. Matthew Thomsen - 234
14. Ernesto Lopez - 232
14. Chris Mulvey - 232
14. Conor Sullivan - 232
17. Joe Swiderski - 230
17. Weston Cross - 230
19. Denise Reidy - 229
20. Jennifer Elam - 228
21. Larry Caplin - 227
21. Robert Dokes - 227
21. Jason Rogers - 227
21. Amir Sadaghiani - 227
21. Scott Robertson - 227
21. Nick Surmacz - 227
21. Danny Pilz - 227
21. Liz Janelle - 227
29. Rick Boeckler - 225
29. Matt Scarborough - 225
29. Ken Inadomi - 225
29. Nathan Evangelista - 225
29. Joshua Carpenter - 225
29. Keith Evans - 225
29. Jeff Morrison - 225
36. Gary Atkinson - 224
37. Matt Kagan - 223
38. Shari Long - 222
38. Jeff Vaca - 222
38. Kevin Pilz - 222
38. Amy Greca - 222
38. Steve Hartranft - 222
43. Tony Gjolaj - 220
43. Eric Soskin - 220
43. Jackie Wilson - 220
43. Jeremy Gist - 220
47. Ken Wagner - 219
47. Justin Vale - 219
47. Russell Caplin - 219
50. Abby Smagula - 218
50. Jeremy Kwock - 218
50. Ryan McBride - 218
50. Melanie Peralta - 218
50. Jeffrey Ferguson - 218
50. Dave Martins - 218
50. Mike Deeds - 218
57. James Devine - 217
57. Dave Whelan - 217
57. Scott Loomer - 217
57. Jeff Dickens - 217
57. Jeff Cultrera - 217
--. *ALL FAVORITES BRACKET* - 217
62. Greg Plank - 216
62. Joel Thrift - 216
64. Jay Eysol - 215
64. Ken Stern - 215
64. Jay Johnson - 215
64. Christopher Drewry - 215
64. Brian Rogers - 215
64. Logan Pugh - 215
64. Mark Saviola - 215
71. Dean Thornton - 214
71. Bridget Saviola - 214
73. Ben Eng - 213
73. Scott Paine - 213
73. Cam McLachlan - 213
76. Rachel Wetherill - 212
76. Tyler Condon - 212
76. David Mathues - 212
79. Joshua Krause - 210
79. Cath Doo - 210
79. Derek McDonald - 210
79. Tom Caputi - 210
79. Drew Smith - 210
79. Patrick Cullen - 210
79. Dennis Chow - 210
79. Joe Resper - 210
79. Marlene Saviola - 210
79. Quvondo Johnson - 210
79. Gary Kirby - 210
90. Gordon Strickland - 208
90. Ryan Dalidowitz - 208
90. Lauren Moy-Kim - 208
90. Mike Marchand - 208
90. Charles Susano - 208
90. Akash Patel - 208
96. Soren Hammerschmidt - 207
96. Jay Schwartz - 207
96. Kristy McCray - 207
96. Andrew Hunter - 207
100. Barry McGinnis - 206
100. Gerry deSimas - 206
100. Lauren Taylor - 206
103. Dmytro Aponte - 205
103. Kay Torg - 205
103. Paul Lucht - 205
103. Andrew Long - 205
103. Joe McDade - 205
103. Colin Son - 205
103. Steve Leys - 205
103. Trent Kelso - 205
103. Peter Timbrell - 205
103. Tom Greca - 205
103. Mark Jordon - 205
--. *AGGREGATE PICKS BRACKET* - 205
114. Patrick Roach - 203
114. Brian Neudorff - 203
114. Beth Milewski - 203
114. Roger Snyder - 203
114. Jeff Freeze - 203
114. Dan Dinunzio - 203
114. Jenna Auriemma - 203
114. James McGinnis - 203
114. Adam De Guire - 203
114. Keith DeMonstoy - 203
114. Brian Dupuis - 203
114. Joey Perucki - 203
126. Leanna Loomer - 202
126. Tristin Thomsen - 202
126. John Chung - 202
126. Chai Park - 202
130. Cody Groeber - 201
130. Rick Garnett - 201
130. Michael Hale - 201
130. Matt Wiser - 201
134. Johanna Cummings - 200
134. Ginny Zak - 200
134. Brian Newbold - 200
134. Sean Sullivan - 200
134. Jon Schoenwetter - 200
134. Ian Drayton - 200
134. Kelly Strutz - 200
134. Pat Caplin - 200
134. Ted Zak - 200
134. Brian Kiolbasa - 200
134. Pat Gonzales - 200
134. Crys Dalangin - 200
134. Stephen Copenhaver - 200
134. Emily Wood - 200
--. *BARACK OBAMA'S BRACKET* - 200
148. Duane Homan - 199
148. Brandon Minich - 199
150. Darby Shaw - 198
150. Willie Wheaten - 198
150. Jon Benski - 198
150. Andrew Hiller - 198
150. Chris Aemisegger - 198
155. Jim Wall - 197
156. Sharon Lee - 196
156. Randy Styles - 196
156. Nick Genco - 196
156. Greg Shtraks - 196
156. Esteban Coca - 196
156. Matt Higgins - 196
156. Jake Burke - 196
163. Antonia Namnath - 195
163. Bea Duque Long - 195
165. Blake Hanson - 194
165. Kevin Curran - 194
165. Dave Roberts - 194
168. Michael Tran - 193
168. Kristen Wall - 193
168. Eric Gobel - 193
168. Jessica Fortuna - 193
168. Carolyn Blessing - 193
168. Bob Lutts - 193
168. Marty West - 193
175. Jeff Sklar - 192
175. Robin Crocker - 192
177. Hannah McLaughlin - 191
177. Bill Pancoast - 191
177. M.T. Swanson - 191
177. Brian Nicholson - 191
177. Greg Kagan - 191
177. Colleen Duggan - 191
183. Michael Rosenkrantz - 190
183. Keith Stefanczyk - 190
185. Michael Walsh - 189
185. Tom Keck - 189
187. Katrina Lewonczyk - 188
187. Phillip Price - 188
189. Rachel Luberda - 186
189. Stacey Dubois - 186
189. Jon Caplin - 186
189. Carol LaPlante - 186
189. Frank Rooney - 186
194. Joe Loy - 185
195. Oanh Tran - 184
195. Sandy Berman - 184
195. Meredith Steffen - 184
198. Scott Schmidt - 183
198. Mike Wiser - 183
198. Rob Atherton - 183
198. Steve Koppitsch - 183
198. Katherine Kirkpatrick - 183
198. Jim Hu - 183
204. Josh Rubin - 182
205. Jaime Duque - 181
205. A.J. St. John - 181
--. *JOHN MCCAIN'S BRACKET* - 181
207. George Heidkamp - 179
207. Trisha Neudorff - 179
207. Lauren Davis - 179
207. Benjamin Rumery - 179
211. Jessica Cowans - 178
211. Chris Evans - 178
211. Becky Loy - 178
211. Joanna Rubin - 178
215. Chris Bravo - 176
215. Ian Auzenne - 176
215. Kristy LaPlante - 176
215. Diane Krause - 176
215. Kristin West - 176
220. F. X. McGahee - 174
221. Neil Waechter - 173
221. Rosalie Town - 173
223. Don LaPlante - 172
224. Todd Stigliano - 169
225. Shireen Garcia - 166
225. Yvette Webster - 166
225. Steve Duvernay - 166
228. Brenden Roche - 165
229. Neil Rampal - 164
230. Brendan Loy - 161
230. David Kreutz - 161
230. Mike Dagen - 161
233. Jen Ham - 159
234. Courtney Tawresey - 157
235. Andrew Leyden - 154
236. Bonnie Stone - 153
237. Barbara Cross - 143
238. Susie Ogden - 142
238. Toby, Sasha and Butter Zak Loy - 142
240. Jessica Osborne - 137
241. Robbie Loy - 133

Comments

[Marty West]

I hope Nova can pull it out tonight.

F KANSAS!!!

[Ken]

One comment on the statistical % you are posting. I am assuming that if someone is shown at 10% that means that out of all of the possible outcomes remaining, the person would be #1 in 10% of those outcomes. However...it does not follow that such a person has a 10% chance to win unless one assumes that all possible outcomes are equal.

Otherwise, for example, at the beginning of the tournament, when all outcomes are possible, you would have had to rate as equal someone who had picked an all favorites bracket with someone who had picked an all upset bracket. Just because the same NUMBER of outcomes may exist does not mean that each such outsome is equally likely.

Similarly, at this point if someone has picked the higher seeds and someone else has picked the lower seeds I would suggest that even if the same number of outcomes exists for both to win...that the person who has picked the higher seeds has a better chance to win than the person who has picked the lower seeds. (I'm not saying that the lower seeded picks may not end up prevailing...just that the higher seeded picks are more likely).

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