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I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

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« Well, there it is | Main | Jerome Armstrong's fuzzy logic »

A more complete election calendar

There will be a lot of talk in the coming days about how only 612 pledged delegates remain to be allocated in the Democratic presidential race; 2,642 have already been given out. However, those numbers aren't entirely accurate, technically speaking.

As I've explained before, most of the states that have held caucuses to date haven't actually allocated their national convention delegates yet. Rather, they've allocated and elected delegates to county, district and/or state conventions, which will in turn apportion and select delegates to the national convention, often in a multi-stage process. For instance, Iowa, the state that got this crazy primary season going just over two months ago, won't actually finish allocating its national delegates until June 14! Anyway, when you add it all up, there are actually 965 pledged delegates still to be allocated.

Rather than recognizing this procedural reality, the media's delegate counts generally extrapolate from the Election Day results and pretend those extrapolations are final, assuming that the various county, district and state conventions will reflect the election results and will produce no surprises. Making such an assumption is probably preferable to simply ignoring the technically-unallocated caucus delegates, as the New York Times is doing, because in truth, major surprises are unlikely -- and ignoring the caucuses altogether is much more misleading, in terms of providing an accurate picture of the "state of the race," than ignoring the formalities.

However, with the candidates scraping and clawing for every delegate, it would be foolish to completely ignore the forgotten election calendar. While major shifts are unlikely, it's entirely possible we could see at least a handful of delegates going in unexpected directions due to procedural snafus and shenanigans, back-room deals, and people simply changing their minds. So, after the jump, I've combined the "forgotten calendar" of low-profile delegate-selection events with the primary and caucus calendar, to produce a more complete picture of what the next few months will look like, if this nomination battle continues into the summer.

NOTE: "CD" means "congressional district." Public elections are in red. Asterisks indicate events that actually select national-convention delegates. Also, for those national delegate-selection events, there is a number in parentheses indicating how many delegates are selected. Double-asterisks indicate delegate selection (not allocation) events in the disputed state of Michigan, which events could affect the delegate balance at the national convention, but only if Michigan's delegation is seated. Information via The Green Papers and Wikipedia. Let me know if you spot any errors.

Now thru March 14: North Dakota legislative-district conventions (selecting delegates to state convention)
Now thru March 17: Colorado county conventions (selecting delegates to CD and state conventions)
*March 8: Wyoming caucuses (7; also selecting delegates to state convention)
*March 11: Mississippi primary (33)
March 15: Iowa county conventions (selecting delegates to CD and state conventions)
March 29: Texas county and legislative-district conventions (selecting delegates to state convention)
**March 29: Michigan CD conventions (determining who gets 36 "Uncommitted" delegates, if Michigan's delegation is seated)
*April 4-6: North Dakota state convention (13)
April 5: Washington legislative-district caucuses (selecting delegates to CD and state conventions)
*April 18-20: Nevada state convention (25)
April 19: Washington county and legislative-district caucuses (selecting delegates to CD and state conventions)
*April 22: Pennsylvania primary (158)
*April 26: Iowa CD conventions (29)
*May 3: Guam convention (4)
*May 3-10: Colorado CD conventions (36)
*May 6: Indiana primary (72)
*May 6: North Carolina primary (115)
*May 13: West Virginia primary (28)

*May 17: Colorado state convention (19)
*May 17: Washington CD caucuses (51)
**May 17: Michigan state convention (determining who gets 19 "Uncommitted" delegates, if Michigan's delegation is seated)
*May 20: Kentucky primary (51)
*May 20: Oregon primary (52)

*May 23-25: Hawaii state convention (20)
*May 24: Alaska state convention (13)
*May 24: Wyoming state convention (5)
*May 31: Maine state convention (24)
June 1-10: Nebraska county conventions (selecting delegates to state convention)
*June 3: Montana primary (16)
*June 3: South Dakota primary (15)
*June 6-7: Texas state convention (67)
*June 7: Puerto Rico caucuses (55)
*June 12-14: Idaho state convention (6)
*June 14: Iowa state convention (16)
*June 15: Washington state convention (27)
*June 28: Nebraska state convention (8)

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