Tennessee: center of the basketball world

With the state of Tennessee having such a great basketball year, I've been wondering how we stack up against other states in terms of our number of NCAA Tournament teams. Now, thanks to this nifty Wikipedia map, I have the answer.

If Middle Tennessee State knocks off Western Kentucky tonight in the Sun Belt title game, Tennessee will have six teams in the NCAA Tournament -- meaning exactly half of its 12 Division I schools would be dancing. (MTSU would join at-large locks Memphis, UT and Vanderbilt, and automatic bid winners Belmont and Austin Peay.) If that happens, Tennessee would probably finish tied with California for the largest number of teams in the Big Dance, and would either tie Indiana or finish first all by itself for the percentage of its Division I teams going dancing (among states with at least five Division I teams).

Indiana won't get six teams in unless two things happen, one plausible and one highly unlikely. First, #2-seed IUPUI would need to beat #1 Oral Roberts in tonight's Summit League final. That would bring the Hoosier State to five teams (including locks Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana and Butler). And in fairness, Indiana has ten Division I teams to Tennessee's twelve, so 5 out of 10 would be an equal percentage to a possible 6 out of 12 from Tennessee. But for Indiana to beat Tennessee on raw numbers (again, if MTSU wins tonight), #10-seed Ball State would then need to make an improbable run to win the MAC championship.

In all likelihood, if Tennessee gets six teams in, it would tie California for first place in the raw-number count, despite California having almost twice as many Division I teams (23 in all). Stanford, USC and UCLA are locks, St. Mary's is probably a lock, San Diego has an auto bid, and the Sunshine State is guaranteed an auto bid from the Big West conference, whose schools are all in Cali. That's six. California could reach seven or more if #9-seed Cal wins the Pac-10 tournament, #7 Fresno State or #8 San Jose State wins the WAC tournament, and/or #4 San Diego State wins the Mountain West. But those are all pretty unlikely.

As for percentages, the reason I limited the analysis to "states with at least five Division I teams" is that several western states -- specifically, Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, Kansas and Washington -- have a realistic shot at percentages of 50% or more just by getting one or two teams in. That seems like cheating.

Oh, and if you're wondering about North Carolina, that hoops-crazy state is probably stuck at three tournament teams: North Carolina, Duke and Davidson. The only way they get four or more is if #8-seed Wake Forest or #12 N.C. State wins the ACC tourney, #6 Charlotte wins the Atlantic 10, #5 North Carolina A&T wins the MEAC, and/or #10 East Carolina wins the Memphis Invitational Conference USA tournament. Barring any of those unlikely events, mighty North Carolina (which has 18 Division I teams total) may tie tiny Connecticut (which has 7) in the raw-number count, if Hartford and Sacred Heart win their respective conference title games. Heh!

(I added those numbers up myself, so please correct me if you spot any errors!)

Comments

[Fresh Girl]

I realize you're only looking at NCAA teams in declaring Tennessee the center of the basketball world right now, but there's another TN team who deserves recognition. Next week the Union University in Jackson, TN (yes, the same school so ravaged by an F4 tornado last month) Lady Bulldogs will play in the NAIA tournament for their FOURTH national title. The Lady Bulldogs are 32 - 0 this season, despite the upheaval they've been through the last month or so. ESPN.com did a really nice write-up on them for Page 2 -- http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=darcy/080215

[Jay Johnson]

And interestingly enough, they'll play for that title in their hometown, which is also my former home, and where I used to cover sports on the radio on WNWS.

Go Lady Bulldogs! The NAIA women's tournament is an absolute blast. Especially the first rounds. Basketball from the early morning all the way through the late night. In the same gym. Awesome.

[Fresh Girl]

Jay, I didn't know you were from Jackson. I loved the years I spent there. Union is my alma mater, and I'm proud as I can be of the Lady Bulldogs and the way the Union spirit has shone so brightly through the aftermath of the tornado. It's a special school...hope there's a championship in there as a reward.

[PatGLex]

A reminder that your neighbor to the north, Kentucky, will (likely, assuming UK is not on the bubble) have 3 of its 6 NCAA teams in the tournament. And Georgetown College (not to be confused with the NCAA D-1 team) is, I believe, undefeated, ranked #1, and heading for the NAIA tournament in Kansas City. (And on the Georgetown athletics page, it lists two Tennessee schools as #2 and #3 and likely also headed for KC.)

[Brendan Loy]

Hmm. Looks like I'll have to, in true Hillary Clinton-esque fashion, adjust the criteria in order to make Tennessee win. We've got the highest percentage among states with at least seven Division I schools! ;)