Bubble Scoresheet preview

Sometime on Sunday afternoon, I'll publish this year's version of the Official BrendanLoy.com Bubble Scoresheet, which provides an easy tool for bubble-watchers to use while watching the Selection Show, to make sense of things as the regions are announced. I figured I'd briefly plug it now, to encourage y'all to come back Sunday afternoon. :)

By specifically keeping track of how many "probably in," "bubble" and "probably out" teams have been selected thus far, I find that it's much easier to figure out what the stakes are, and what the as-yet unselected teams' chances are, as the show proceeds.

For example, two years ago, during a commercial break 3/4 of the way through the Selection Show, I was able to write definitively that "either Northern Iowa or Cincinnati is NOT dancing. The bubble is tapped out." Thus, when Northern Iowa's name appeared in the final region, I knew that Cincy was doomed. And last year, again 3/4 of the way into the show, I noted that "unless either Syracuse or Xavier [both of whom I had listed in the 'probably in' column] is left out ... the rest of the bubble teams aren’t going to the tournament." As a result, when CBS announced the inclusion of Xavier and then of bubble-team Stanford, I knew immediately that Syracuse had been, stunningly, snubbed.

I always define the "bubble" broadly for Scoresheet purposes, since you never know what wacky, unexpected decisions the committee might make. For instance, most people didn't think Utah State or Air Force were anywhere near the bubble in '06, but I had included them on that year's Scoresheet, USU under "bubble" and AFA in the "probably out" column. Similarly, most bracketologists didn't think there was any chance Syracuse would get left out last year, but I had them in the "probably in" column, rather than as a lock. If there's even a smidgeon of a doubt that a team will get in, I put them in the "probably in" column, just in case; and if there's even a hint of a chance that they might be unexpectedly selected, I put them in the "probably out" column, so there are no surprises.

This year, if the Selection Show was today, the Scoresheet would look something like this:

PROBABLY IN (8)
___ Arkansas
___ Baylor
___ Kentucky
___ Miami
___ South Alabama
___ St. Mary's
___ Texas A&M
___ UNLV

BUBBLE (13)
(Assuming all "probably in" teams make it, and all "probably out" teams don't, 6 of these teams will be selected.)
___ Arizona
___ Arizona State
___ Dayton
___ Illinois State
___ Mississippi
___ New Mexico
___ Oregon
___ Ohio State
___ Saint Joe's
___ Temple
___ UMass
___ VCU
___ Villanova

PROBABLY OUT (7)
___ Charlotte
___ Florida
___ Florida State
___ Houston
___ Maryland
___ UAB
___ Virginia Tech

Frankly, I don't know why the major sports sites like ESPN and SI.com don't put together a similar "scoresheet." I, at least, find it to be an incredibly helpful tool while watching the Selection Show. I dunno if anyone else actually uses it, but I'll post it Sunday afternoon, as usual, since I'll be making it for myself regardless. :)