Pitt: Elite Eight team, or first-round flameout?

As we enter the final hours of my annual ritual of bracket agonizing, I find myself fretting about the top right-hand corner of the bracket, the upper half of the South Region. I've got Pittsburgh penciled in as an Elite Eight team because -- with apologies to Jay -- I've felt ever since the Tennessee game that Memphis's inability to shoot free throws is going to knock them out of the tourney early, and Pitt seems like the logical team to do it.

Only one problem: I really don't feel comfortable picking Pitt to go that far. In fact, I'm not even convinced they'll make it out of the first round. Oral Roberts is good; indeed, after several years of unjustifiably low seedings, they're the classic "quality small-conference team with something to prove." They'll be ready to play. Pitt, meanwhile, is the Big East Tournament champion, which means they're a trendy pick that's probably overvalued. (Chatting with ESPN's Andy Glockner the other day, I said that the Big East tourney champ is "sometimes overvalued." He shot back, "I think you misspelled 'always.'" Heh.) More importantly, it's entirely possible they're overvalued in their own heads, in which case this could be a classic trap situation where ORU rises up and nips 'em.

The thing is, if I knock Pitt out in the first round, I have a #12 vs. #13 second-round game between Temple (which is going to beat Michigan State) and Oral Roberts, which in turn leaves me with nobody plausible to knock off Memphis before the regional final... unless I want to really double down on the South Region Chaos Theory, picking either Mississippi State or Oregon to knock off the Tigers in the second round, thus producing a Sweet Sixteen game between a #8 or #9 and a #12 or #13. Dare I predict that the bracket will blow up to such an extreme degree? Seems a little wacky, even for me.

I dunno. I think maybe I'll do the Oral Roberts/Temple thing, grudgingly advance Memphis to the Elite Eight without actually having to play anybody (cough cough, Bradley), and then have Texas knock 'em out in the regional final. (Argh, I can't believe I'm putting myself in the situation of having to root for Texas in order to preserve my bracket...)

Other things I'm fretting about: Gonzaga or Davidson? And can I really justify putting Drake into the Elite Eight? And can I really justify putting Xavier in the title game? And am I out of my mind with the Fullerton thing? And, Gonzaga or Davidson???

Comments

[B. Minich]

I would caution you against picking ORU. Of course, I'm a Pitt partisan . . . but one of the things the Big East tourney showed about Pitt is that they are playing good defense again, which was the concern going into the end of the season/Big East tourney. Plus, they are reassembling the team that beat Duke in MSG earlier in the year after being ravaged by injuries.

I've probably overrated them in my bracket here (in my pay brackets, I paid for two brackets, one with Pitt and one with Carolina winning, basically paying $5 to indulge my heart picks in the brackets), but I don't think they'll lose to ORU. I reasonably think they'll make the Sweet 16.

But then, I don't know much about college basketball really. I just read about Pitt, and they do seem to be gelling after getting Levance Fields back from injury toward the end of the season.

[Andrew]

I do not see how ORU is going to beat Pitt after having lost their two best players from last year's team. Yes they are still good, but not good enough to know off Pitt, methinks.

[Joe]

I honestly don't know where this Temple nonsense comes from. Seth Davis (who for some reason still has a job talking about college basketball) shoots his mouth off and all of a sudden the Spartans can't win? oh well, I guess if you want your bracket to implode on the first weekend...

[Russ]

I find it amazing that #5 Michigan State is the underdog against #12 Temple [at least in bracket world]. The Spartans have a four year starter on the point and a solid balance of talent. With the exception of a few bad losses during the Big Ten season, they are a solid team with good tourney prospects.

[Matt]

"I dunno. I think maybe I'll do the Oral Roberts/Temple thing, . . ."

Next time, you'll know.

[Brendan]

You'd think that, Matt. But no. :)