It's all about Cal State Fullerton, baby

College Hoops Journal tries the coin flip bracket. The result? Three of the four #1 seeds lose to #16 seeds, and the Final Four is Stanford, BYU, George Mason and Cal State Fullerton, with Mason winning the national championship.

Dane did a coin-flip bracket once, in 2004. I remember because he had me flip the coin for him, and enter his bracket accordingly. He finished 67th out of 76. That means he beat nine people! Well, okay, six people and three cats. :) And I'm pretty sure Craig Stern, in last place, was trying to get everything wrong. But the coin-flip bracket legitimately beat five human contestants who were trying to win -- including my wife. Sorry, Becky. But hey, she picked Hampton in 2001, so I really can't talk. (She'll hold that one over my head till the day I die, because it was the first pool she'd ever entered and, when I saw her bracket, I rather condescendingly informed her that it wasn't a good idea to pick #15 seeds. Heh.)

Anyway, speaking of Cal State Fullerton (and, more generally, of crazy upset picks that are utterly ridiculous on their face, but who knows?), I'm not predicting a Final Four run for the Titans, but I do have them penciled in over Wisconsin on my bracket. I have no logical basis for this whatsoever. (I don't think "it's Bea's alma mater, and I want to see the USC vs. Fullerton Long-Duque throwdown" counts as a logical basis.) Then again, I didn't have a logical basis the last time I picked a #14 to beat a #3, and that worked out okay. (And clearly, that's a good reason to hope for lightning to strike twice... is it any wonder I always lose my pools, usually spectacularly?)

P.S. The key to an effective coin-flip bracket, I think, is to stack the deck a little bit. Suppose heads is for the favorite and tails is for the underdog. For games involving a #16 or #15 seed, you should pick the favorite unless it comes up tails three straight times. For games involving a #14, #13 or #12 seed, you should pick the favorite unless it comes up trails twice in a row. For all other games, just do a straight coin flip. Under those modified rules, I bet you could get some intriguing, non-DOA brackets with the coin-flip method.

P.P.S. Hmm... maybe we can use the above-described, modified coin-flip method to make a bracket for Loyette! With one exception, though: she is definitely picking Kansas to win the national championship. She told me so. Well, to be more precise, I asked her on Selection Sunday who she thinks will win it all, in response to which she promptly gurgled something to the effect of: "Gaaa." Using my powers of babyspeak translation, I interpreted this as meaning "Kansas." So I asked her, "You think Kansas, huh?" She immediately smiled back, a super-cute, heart-melting smile. So clearly, Loyette is picking Kansas. But that only accounts for 6 of the 63 tournament games. Her other 57 picks could be determined by the modified coin-flip method...

Comments

[Andrew]

(I don't think "it's Bea's alma mater, and I want to see the USC vs. Fullerton Long-Duque throwdown" counts as a logical basis.)

Actually, that'd be the Long-Duque Long throwdown. ;-)

[Brendan]

True, but that doesn't have quite the same ring to it. :) Besides, she was a Duque when she went to Fullerton...

[Andrew]

Yeah well, I paid a lot of money to add those extra four letters to her last name. :-P

(Never mind the fact that, legally, she never changed her name, nor has she ever agreed to legally change her name.)

[Brendan]

LOL! So actually, I was right all along. :)

[Lisa]

I did a coin flip bracket last year (or maybe it was the year before). I didn't enter it in your pool Brendan, just in one on Facebook. I can't remember if I came in last or not, but I was at least pretty close to the bottom.

[Bea]

I always cheer for my Titans, and when I lived in Sacramento I did drive for an hour down to Stockton to see my Titans agaisnt the UoP Tigers, but I am not much of a basketball fan. But yeah, GO TITANS! Since I am assuming my Titans will get their ass kicked against USC unless Mayo breaks a leg bewteen now and then, I am not looking forward to the Long - Duque Long throwdown. But if that is a good enough reason to get you to cheer for my Titans, that works for me :)

And yeah, I am still legally Ms. Duque, Colombian girls don't drop the name, they add on the new name, and many don't even do that anymore (my mom and my aunt never did). So Andrew is lucky his name is on my checks :)

[dcl]

As I recall I went with the coin flip bracket because you really wanted more entries into the pool (something about breaking a record) and I was too lazy to actually bother thinking about it. But I do recall that the method I went with was it had to be two tails in a row to call an upset instead of a straight up match. I figured that would give me some chance of not coming in dead last...