Hillary "exceeding expectations" in unweighted exit-poll "first wave"

Via Right Pundits:

2.41pm - It really does appear that Hillary is exceeding expectations in the early data. As we always caution, take first waves as they are meant to be, which is a pile of data that has not been properly normalized for known demographics. More in a minute. ...

3.50 EST - Turnout is much higher than any previous primary, but turnout is LOWER than all the pundits were predicting. Most pundits and those in the know thought turnout would exceed 3 million, some even suggesting it would be closer to 3.5 million. Absent a huge surge this evening, the predictions seem to be off. Young African American turnout is 1/3 lower than expected, maybe they’ll show up in the final wave [of exit poll data]?? ...

4.30 EST - Mood in Obama camp shifting to subdued. They are lowering expectations this afternoon and talking about the next contests like Hillary did in past days. Obama: “We closed the gap, but you know whether it’s going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on turnout. We know there’s not going to be a huge shift in delegates one way or another — just given the math. Which means that either way we will go to Mississippi or Wyoming next week.”

Take it for what, if anything, it's worth. As always, remember the Seven-Hour Presidency of John Kerry.

P.S. Early Ohio data, when available, will be here.

Comments

[Jim]

Huge number of independents voting in the democratic primaries though, that has to be good for Obama.

[Marty West]

HILLDOG!!!

[DBrooks]

God help me,I voted for Hillary in the OH primary today, even though I am a lifelong Republican. I think it is in everyone's best interest that Obama continue to have opposition that forces him to reveal his intentions, and that pushes him to answer tough questions. Not to mention that I love the idea of Hillary attacking him rather than McCain having to do it.