Bubble carnage!

Yesterday morning, Joe Lunardi said there were 25 teams on or near the bubble, competing for 11 spots. Of those 25 teams, 18 were in action yesterday -- and they went a whopping 6-12! (And that's not even including Baylor!)

But it gets worse. The ten teams closest to the "cut line" -- the "last five in" and "last five out" -- went an incredible 0-7, with only Ohio State, Illinois State and VCU managing not to lose (because they were idle; in the Redbirds' and Rams' cases, their seasons are already over).

Here's a graphical representation of yesterday's carnage, using Lunardi's Thursday-morning pecking order as a starting point. The teams are listed in S-curve order, from best to worst, as of yesterday morning. Green means they won yesterday, red means they lost, italics means their season was done before the day started. Here goes:

• IN: Miami, Texas A&M, Arizona, UNLV, Arkansas, South Alabama, Oregon, Massachusetts, Illinois State, New Mexico, Arizona State

• OUT: Ohio State, Florida, VCU, UAB, Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Villanova, Mississippi, Syracuse, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Temple, Houston

So, where does this leave us?

I think you have to consider Miami, Texas A&M and UNLV "locks" now, in light of their wins coupled with all the losses by their bubble competitors. But Baylor probably falls out of the "lock" category, at least nominally, to take their place up near the top of the bubble. I also think Houston, Maryland and Mississippi, who were very low on the bubble anyway, are now definitively done after bad tournament losses. (I'm tempted to put Florida and UAB in that category too, but Lunardi had them pretty close to the cut-line, so I won't.) So, that leaves us with 20 teams competing for 9 spots. Reshuffling the deck to account for yesterday's results, I come up with something like this:

• IN: Arkansas, Baylor, South Alabama, Arizona, Illinois State, Oregon, Ohio State, Saint Joseph's, VCU

• OUT: Arizona State, Massachusetts, Dayton, New Mexico, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Temple, Villanova, Florida, UAB, Syracuse

That's without any detailed analysis of the team's full profiles on my part; I'm trusting Lunardi's pecking order, and then roughly adjusting it based on yesterday's games, including consideration of "bad" vs. "okay" losses (hence, for example, Arizona State not suffering too badly for a loss to USC, while New Mexico gets killed for losing to a crappy Utah team).

I'll be very interested to see what Lunardi comes up with later this morning, and I'll defer to him, but that's approximately where I think things stand, assuming Lunardi was right about where they stood yesterday morning.

The upshot of yesterday's bubble carnage is that the remainder of Championship Week won't have much in the way of bubble implications. You can count today's big bubble games on one hand: Ohio State-Michigan State (though if the Buckeyes lose, it's no longer a no-brainer that they're out), Saint Joseph's-Xavier, Temple-Charlotte, Florida State-North Carolina and Miami-Virginia Tech. Technically you could include Vanderbilt-Arkansas, but I can't see the Razorbacks being left out, in light of what's happening around them.

I also wonder if all these losses by bubble teams opens the door for some previously off-the-radar teams to make a run, like Charlotte (if they beat Temple, then lose to Xavier for the title), Oklahoma State (suppose they upset Texas and Oklahoma to reach the Big 12 title game, then lose a close one to Kansas), or Stephen F. Austin (if they lose the Southland title game).

UPDATE: Lunardi's new Bracketology projections are up, and as usual, his "Bracket Math" column on ESPN Insider provides the full S-curve update. Like me, he moves Miami and Texas A&M into the "lock" category. Unlike me, he keeps UNLV nominally on the bubble, and holds Baylor as a "lock." Here are his 18 bubble teams competing for 9 spots, in their "S-curve" pecking order:

• IN: Arizona, UNLV, Arkansas, South Alabama, Illinois State, Oregon, Ohio State, Arizona State, Saint Joe's

• OUT: New Mexico, Massachusetts, VCU, Dayton, Mississippi, Villanova, Temple, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Charlotte

Pretty similar to mine, though I had VCU barely in and ASU barely out, and I punished New Mexico and Mississippi more than he did. As promised, I defer to the wisdom of the Bracketologist Extraordinaire. :)

Comments

[Brendan]

I hate basketball.

[Brendan Loy]

What is this, my evil basketball-hating twin?

Not having watched much regular-season basketball, I was shocked to see Florida as an "out" bubble team.

What in the world happened there?