Big Ten upsets create bubble headache

The Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals yesterday saw a couple of big upsets: #10-seed Illinois over #2 Purdue, and #6-seed Minnesota over #3 Indiana on a miracle Christian Laettner-esque buzzer-beater:

These upsets mean that today's second semifinal will feature two teams with no shot whatsoever at an NCAA at-large berth: the 20-12, RPI #101 Gophers and the 15-18, RPI #125 Illini. (NIT-ology currently projects Minnesota as a #7-seed in the NIT, and Illinois as not being invited to either the NIT or the CBI.)

The winner of the 4:05 PM semifinal will advance to tomorrow's 3:30 PM title game against either #1 Wisconsin or #4 Michigan State, both of whom are safely in the field of 65. So it's guaranteed that the championship game will be between an at-large lock and at an-large non-contender.

This means the NCAA selection committee will have to create an either/or bracket, dependent on the outcome of the Big Ten title game, which won't be decided until mere minutes before the Selection Show. The "last team in," whoever it is, will instantly become the "last team out" if today's Illinois/Minnesota winner steals a berth tomorrow afternoon.

If that happens, it'll be interesting to see how the Big Ten's surprise winner gets seeded. By rights, based on their RPIs, the Gophers or Illini should be around a #13 or #14 seed (maybe even a #15, if it's Illinois). But in the interest of simplifying the bracketing process, given the timing issues, the committee might simply give them whatever seed the would be "last team in" was going to get, which would-be an #11 or #12.

It'll also be interesting to see whether Ohio State is the bubble team that gets left out if Illinois or Minnesota earns the auto bid. The committee always says it doesn't add up the number of teams per conference, but it's still hard to believe the Big Ten would get six teams (possibly the same as -- or more than?!? -- the Pac-10) -- and with Ohio State squarely on the bubble anyway, it would be awfully convenient for the committee to designate the Buckeyes as the team whose fate is dependent on whether the Illini/Gophers win tomorrow. Regardless, I daresay tOSU fans will be rooting awfully hard for either Wisconsin or Michigan State tomorrow, just in case.

The only other possible major-conference party-crasher still standing is Georgia (14-16, RPI #137), the last-place team in the SEC East, which is still alive in the SEC Tournament. But thanks to the severe weather problems in Atlanta, the Bulldogs would need to win three games in about 27 hours to earn the auto bid.