Irish Trojan in Tennessee

NCAA, NIT pools now online

By Brendan Loy

The 13th annual Living Room Times men's NCAA pool, presented by the UCLA Bruins, is now online and ready to accept your brackets! The deadline is Thursday at 12:20 PM EDT.

Also, the 4th annual Irish Trojan NIT Pool is online as well. Its deadline is Tuesday at 6:00 PM EDT.

Complete pool rules are here. As always with my basketball pools, I ask that contestants please use their real names, first and last. Anonymous, pseudonymous, first-name-only, and first-name-last-initial entries are NOT allowed. If this rule presents a problem for you, please e-mail me and we can hopefully work out some sort of compromise.

If you enter and then later decide to change your picks, simply re-enter from scratch. The last entry received before the deadline will be treated as your final entry.

The women's NCAA pool will begin Monday night.

P.S. One minor technical thing that's different from previous years: after you submit your picks, you'll be presented with a confirmation page displaying your bracket. At the top of this page, it will say, "To send these picks to your OfficePool Manager, select the button below," followed by a "Send Emails" button. Clicking this button is not required; your entry is already entered into the pool database by the time you see the screen I'm describing. However, although not required, clicking the "Send Emails" button is highly recommended, because otherwise you will not receive an e-mailed copy of your picks.

P.P.S. Earlier, I was planning to have a pool for the new CBI as well. However, I've changed my mind. It turns out they reseed their Final Four, which makes it way too difficult to have a pool, especially considering that no one cares about the CBI anyway. :)

David vs. David, Goliath vs. Goliath

By Brendan Loy

Ugh. The NCAA selection committee has once again bracketed the tournament in such a way as to prevent many potentially compelling matchups where mid-major and low-major teams would be able to test their mettle against big-conference teams.

Among the 8-9 games, two are Goliath vs. Goliath (Indiana-Arkansas, Mississippi State-Oregon) and one is David vs. David (UNLV-Kent State). Only one is sort of a David vs. Goliath (BYU vs. Texas A&M). Would it have killed them to flip a couple of those teams, producing, say, UNLV-Arkansas and Indiana-Kent State?

Among the 7-10 games, it's a similar story, as we get two David vs. Davids (Butler vs. South Alabama and Gonzaga vs. Davidson) and one Goliath vs. Goliath (West Virginia vs. Arizona), and only one David vs. Goliath, Miami vs. St. Mary's -- which isn't really that interesting anyway, as Miami is hardly a traditional basketball powerhouse. Again, would it have killed them to pit, say, Butler vs. Arizona and West Virginia vs. South Alabama?

I won't complain about the 6-11 games, since there really wasn't anything to work with there; all of those teams are from power conferences, except St. Joe's. But what about the 5-12 games? Again, we get Clemson vs. Villanova in one bracket, while Drake faces Western Kentucky in another. Why not flip them, so it's Clemson vs. Western Kentucky and Drake vs. Villanova? Much more compelling.

I realize the committee supposedly doesn't look at matchups, but this is the second consecutive year they've done this, and it really detracts from the drama of the tournament's opening weekend. Nobody tunes into the first round to watch David vs. David and Goliath vs. Goliath. We all want to see how the "little guys" stack up against the "big guys." Instead, the committee has created a situation where the mid-majors are inevitably going to cannibalize each other.

CBS's Seth Davis said during the Selection Show that "some of these non-power-conference teams need to step up and win some games." But this bracket denies them a ton of potential opportunities to do just that, against major-conference opponents at least. Is anyone in the mainstream sports media going to give proper credit to Western Kentucky if they upset Drake, or South Alabama if they upset Butler, or Davidson if they upset Gonzaga? Of course not. And that's a damn shame.

This unfortunate bracketing really takes away from one of the very best things about the NCAA Tournament. I don't know if the committee is doing this on purpose, or just by accident, but like I said, it has now happened two years in a row. They need to make an effort to prevent this from happening so commonly in future years if they want the tournament's early rounds to remain the most compelling four days in sports.

NCAA Pool coming shortly

By Brendan Loy

I'll get my pool entry form online as soon as possible. It may take a little longer than in past years because of Loyette. :) Stay tuned.

P.S. That would be the 13th annual Living Room Times men's basketball pool, presented by the UCLA Bruins. In case anyone was confused...

Selection Show! Wooo!

By Brendan Loy

No surprises in the #1 seeds. North Carolina is #1 overall, and the top seed in the East Region; Memphis is tops in the South; UCLA in the West; and Kansas in Midwest. Tennessee probably got knocked out of the spot now occupied by the Jayhawks when they lost to Arkansas yesterday.

Selections coming up!

UPDATE: #5 Notre Dame vs. #12 George Mason!

And a possible second-round rematch with #13 Winthrop!

UPDATE, 6:11 PM: How does Tennessee get stuck with North Carolina?? That's not fair. The Vols cannot have been the #8 overall seed. Lame.

UPDATE, 6:15 PM: South Alabama gets in! And as a #10 seed, matched up with Butler in Birmingham, Alabama. So it's another mid-major vs. mid-major matchup (ugh). I'm not too upset about Butler's #7 seed, though. They're overrated in the polls. But the matchup is annoying. Hopefully that's our only "David vs. David" matchup.

The other bubble team in so far is St. Joe's, as an #11 seed. One region down, three to go...

UPDATE, 6:25 PM: ARRRGGH!!!! More stupid mid-major vs. mid-major matchups!! #8 UNLV vs. #9 Kent State and #7 Gonzaga vs. #10 Davidson!

If Gonzaga can reach the second round, a possible Battle of the Jesuits looms against Georgetown... and if they can reach the Sweet Sixteen, they could face USC, the ultimate Brendan Loy dilemma. But I doubt that will happen; I will probably be picking Davidson. More likely, the Sweet Sixteen could pit USC vs. my dad's alma mater, #2 Georgetown. But only if the #6 Trojans can get past #11 Kansas State (Mayo vs. Beasley!) and then probably #3 Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Villanova gets in. Joe Lunardi is perfect on the bubble teams so far. The Wildcats were his "last team in."

It's now pretty much impossible for Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon to all make it, unless somebody from the "very likely in" list doesn't make it.

Two regions down, two to go.

UPDATE, 6:29 PM: A decent David vs. Goliath matchup, sort of, in #7 Miami vs. #10 St. Mary's.

Note also the Battle of the Brainiacs, #3 Stanford vs. #14 Cornell.

Oregon is a #9 seed. That suggests so much respect fpr the Pac-10 that you'd almost think Arizona and Arizona State will both get in. But that would require either Baylor or Texas A&M to not make it.

Glad to see Oral Roberts finally get a decent seed (#13).

UPDATE, 6:31 PM: With one region to go, here's where things stand on the bubble: four teams from the "true bubble" category have made it already, leaving only one spot left, unless one of the two remaining "very likely in" teams -- Baylor or A&M -- is left out.

Among the bubble teams still waiting to hear their names called: Arizona, Arizona State, Illinois State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, VCU. Again, only one of those teams can make it, unless Baylor and/or A&M doesn't.

Lunardi is still perfect. He has Arizona as the only unannounced team getting in.

UPDATE, 6:35 PM: Joe Lunardi PERFECT for (I believe) the first time ever!

Very interesting that Oregon gets a #9 and Arizona gets a #10, but ASU gets left out. Clearly the committee penalized them for the terrible non-conference strength of schedule.

"Some of these non-power conference teams need to step up and win some games," says Seth Davis. Well, it's a bit hard for them to prove anything when they're all matched up against each other... sigh...

UPDATE, 6:51 PM: Is Billy Packer a d**k or what? He keeps talking about how the Big East gets 8 teams in, versus the ACC's 4, without mentioning that the Big East has 16 teams to the ACC's 12.

Final Scoresheet Update

By Brendan Loy

I've updated the Official BrendanLoy.com Bubble Scoresheet to reflect the Georgia win and the Illinois loss. Here's the PDF version, and here's the Word version.

Selection Show liveblogging coming up!

UNBELIEVABLE!!!

By Brendan Loy

Georgia wins 3 games in 30 hours and earns an NCAA bid!! Absolutely incredible!! The most amazing story in the entire history of Championship Week, IMHO. And somebody's bubble just burst. Illinois lost, though. T minus 18 minutes till the selection show!

Selection committee puts political correctness ahead of basketball, again

By Brendan Loy

Whatever happens with the bubble teams, the NCAA Tournament selection committee has already made its most outrageous, indefensible, egregiously absurd decision of the year. According to ESPN's Andy Katz, Tuesday's play-in game will feature MEAC champion Coppin State against NEC champion Mount St. Mary's -- not SWAC champion Mississippi Valley State, which is, by any objective measure, one of the two worst teams in the NCAA Tournament.

There is no basketball-related explanation for this decision. None. The only reason they've done it is because of their reluctance to pit two historically black universities, the MEAC and SWAC champions, against one another. This kowtowing to political correctness, despite the MEAC and SWAC consistently producing the two worst teams in the field, has been a recurring theme since the play-in game was created in 2001. But never has the situation been so blatant as this year.

Mississippi Valley State is 15-15 against Division I competition, #229 in the RPI, and #318 (out of 341!) in the Pomeroy ratings. Mount St. Mary's is 18-14, #159, and #169, respectively. Mississippi Valley State won the worst conference in America, according to the conference RPI ratings. Mount St. Mary's won the ninth-worst conference.

Coppin State and Mississippi Valley State aren't just the two worst teams by far in this year's tournament, they're two of the worst teams ever to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. There is no possible justification, under the selection committee's own criteria, for putting any other two teams in the play-in game. Yet the committee has done exactly that -- because they care more about Jesse Jackson's approval, apparently, than about following their own rules and procedures and creating an intellectually honest bracket.

Jim Nantz and Billy Packer will probably focus their annual inquisition of the committee chairman on the alleged "snubs" of various mediocre major-conference teams. If so, they'll be missing the boat completely on the day's real scandal. They need to ask the chairman about this decision, because it is totally ridiculous, and it's about time someone held their feet to the fire for this egregious nonsense.

Baby's first Selection Sunday!

By Brendan Loy

Heh:

Actually, that photo was taken on Thursday during the Pac-10 tournament. But I have a feeling it will be a common scene both tonight and throughout the next few weeks. :)

(Just before the picture was taken, Loyette was actually staring straight at the TV screen for several minutes. It was really cute.)

Oh, and yes, we realize our entertainment center isn't remotely baby-proofed. But we should have a little while yet before she starts crawling around and that becomes an issue...

Cinderella's chance

By Brendan Loy

SEC East last-place team Georgia, trying to win its third game in 30 hours to win an automatic bid to the Big Dance, leads 28-9 (!) over Arkansas, the SEC West's second-place team, with 9:15 left in the first half. This is an ideal scenario for the Bulldogs; if they can build up a huge early lead, they might be able to hang on even if exhaustion takes hold in the second half.

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten title game, first-place Wisconsin has a 20-18 lead over 10th-place Illinois.

Also underway: the Big 12 title game between Kansas and Texas, which may be a play-in game for a #1 seed. Texas leads 46-45 at halftime.

Updated Bubble Scoresheet

By Brendan Loy

I've updated the Official BrendanLoy.com Bubble Scoresheet to mirror Joe Lunardi's final(?) "Bracket Math" column. Lunardi thinks there are only 12 "true bubble" teams, not 15 as in my earlier scoresheet, and I think he's probably right, so I've moved Kentucky into the "very likely in" column, and Dayton & Ole Miss into the "very likely out" column. I could see either the Flyers or Rebels getting in, or the Wildcats being left out, but it would certainly be a surprise.

The new version of the Scoresheet also displays Lunardi's S-curve rankings, from +6 to +1 (last six in) and from -1 to -6 (last six out). Here's the PDF version, and here's the Word version.

Joe Lunardi's S-curve

By Brendan Loy

His last six in, from safest to least safe: South Alabama, Saint Joseph's, Oregon, Arizona, Villanova, Virginia Tech.

His last six out, from closest to furthest from the cut line: Illinois State, Arizona State, Ohio State, New Mexico, VCU, UMass.

P.S. The experts are getting all keyed up to be outraged about Arizona State's possible exclusion. I'd love to see the Sun Devils make it, but I'd also love to see some intellectual honesty from those who object strenuously to their exclusion, if indeed they're excluded.

For example, it's fine to emphasize ASU's big wins (Xavier by 22 at home, Stanford in OT at home, USC by 14 at home), but you can't just ignore their bad losses (Illinois, Nebraska, Cal at home), nor their utterly horrible non-conference schedule (ranked #298, or 46th-worst in Division I), nor their 2-7 record against the Pac-10's top four teams. You need to make a case that takes into account all of the pertinent facts, not just the ones that are helpful to your argument.

Similarly, it's fine to point out ASU's head-to-head sweep of Arizona, but you shouldn't "double-count" those wins by saying, "They beat Arizona head-to-head and they finished ahead of them in the Pac-10 standings," as if those are two independently significant accomplishments. They're not; they're just two ways of saying the same thing. ASU finished one game ahead of Arizona in the Pac-10 standings because they beat 'em head-to-head. Outside of the head-to-head games, the Sun Devils were 7-9 in their other conference games, while the Wildcats were 8-8.

P.P.S. And as for Virginia Tech, I wonder if the experts who think they should definitely be included in the field of 65 -- or the head coach who believes that those who disagree with his fuzzy math are "certifiably insane" -- all because the Hokies almost beat #1 North Carolina yesterday, would have extended the same courtesy to Davidson (which almost beat North Carolina, Duke, UCLA and N.C. State) if the Wildcats hadn't won their automatic bid? For that matter, I wonder if they'll use the same logic vis a vis South Alabama (which almost beat Vanderbilt and Ole Miss)? Heck, if almost winning games is such a key factor for NCAA considering, Notre Dame should have been a freakin' #1 seed back in 2005-06...

I will see your Georgia, and I will raise you a Coppin State

By Brendan Loy

I e-mailed ESPN's Andy Glockner last night, asking him whether he agrees with me that a Georgia victory in today's SEC championship game would, in light of the bizarre circumstances that have caused the last-place Bulldogs to need three wins in 30 hours to reach the NCAA Tournament, be "the single most incredible story in the entire history of Championship Week."

He replied, "No, I think that's Coppin State, which won the MEAC tonight by winning four games in four days by a total of six points. They beat the top three seeds in the tournament on successive nights and closed by winning 12 of their last 13 games after starting the season 2-19 in D-I games. Unreal."

I still think Georgia is the better story, but there's no doubt Coppin State is an incredible one, too. Even with their torrid 8-out-of-9 finish to the regular season, the Eagles were the seventh-place team in the second-worst conference in America. They enter the NCAA Tournament with a 16-20 record (14-20 against D-I opponents) -- making them the first 20-loss team ever to go dancing -- and an RPI ranking of #217.

It'll be interesting to see whether the committee does the right thing and matches up Coppin State against Mississippi Valley State, the champion of the worst conference (the SWAC), in the play-in game. The selection committee has been reluctant to pit the SWAC champ against the MEAC champ in the play-in game, because those are the "historically black college" conferences, and it's seen as politically incorrect to put both of their champions in the play-in game, even though those conferences pretty consistently produce the two worst teams in the field. (Last year, the committee did Niagara a massive injustice by putting the MAAC champ Purple Eagles, RPI #136, who should have been a #14 or #15 seed, into the play-in game in place of the SWAC champ Jackson State, RPI #168.)

This season, though, I don't see how you can deny, with a straight face, that MEAC champ Coppin State (14-20 against D-I, RPI #227) and Mississippi Valley State (15-15 against D-I, RPI #229 are by far the two worst teams in the field. RPI-wise, the next-closest contender is #159 Mount St. Mary's, surprise champion of the NEC, which has an 18-14 record. That's 68 spots behind Coppin State -- equivalent to the difference between North Carolina and IUPUI. If there's ever going to be a year when the committee puts basketball ahead of politics, and puts the two worst teams in the play-in game regardless of what Jesse Jackson might think about it, this is that year.

Bubble Scoresheet

By Brendan Loy

It's Selection Sunday!!! Whee!!!!

With no bubble teams in action today, the bubble pecking order is now pretty well fixed, so I've gone ahead and created the Official BrendanLoy.com Bubble Scoresheet (Word format, PDF format).

Big win for Obama in Iowa (again!)

By Brendan Loy

Remember my posts about the forgotten election calendar, and how the multi-stage nature of the caucus process could result in changes to the delegate count?

Well, Iowa held its county conventions on Saturday, and it looks like Obama made a net gain of 10 delegates over Clinton (mostly at Edwards's expense), as compared with the originally estimated results from the precinct caucuses in January. To put it in perspective, that's a bigger gain than Clinton's 9-delegate edge in Ohio!

Of course, these new results are still estimates, since the county conventions only elected state and congressional-district delegates, not national delegates. Nevertheless, a good day for Obama.