Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Hillary: "battleground states" include AZ, AR, CA, NY, NJ, MA, OK, TN, RI

By Brendan Loy

I know I'm a broken record on this point, but I am absolutely mystified at how Hillary can count solid red states (Arizona, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee) and solid blue states (California, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island) -- two of which are her home states -- as among her triumphant "battleground state" victories, yet none of Obama's victories "count." How absolutely bizarre and ridiculous. Is she seriously contending that Obama would lose New York in November, or that she, Hillary, can win Oklahoma? Good grief. What a maddeningly, transparently bogus argument!

The thing is, I actually think recent events, including tonight's results, have opened up some legitimate lines of attack for the Clinton spinmeisters. They need to stick with those, and stop with this indefensible, self-serving nonsense about which states "count."

Ugh.

By Brendan Loy

Why must Hillary constantly talk about how her campaign proves to "little girls" that "anything is possible" -- thus repeatedly and explicitly injecting the gender card into the campaign -- while Obama never (that I've seen, anyway) feels the need to talk about how his candidacy proves to little black kids that "anything is possible"? His message of hope and change is universal, whereas hers seems so often to be gender-specific.

Of course, I fully support the gender equality message that she's advancing, particularly now that I myself am the father of a little girl. But I don't appreciate her constantly using that message for such blatantly self-interested reasons. I don't have to support Hillary Clinton in order to prove to my daughter that "anything is possible," thank you very much.

Identity politics sucks. Can we please decide this nomination based on issues, not genitalia or skin color?

Gov. Strickland: "Let us go to Michigan and Florida!"

By Brendan Loy

Ohio's governor and prominent Hillary Clinton supporter Ted Strickland came dangerously close to a Howard Dean moment just now, warming up the crowd for Hillary's victory speech in Columbus, as he listed the states that Hillary will now continue to "fight" in -- concluding, to loud cheers and applause, "And let us go to Michigan and Florida!"

Fox News's Brit Hume and Bill Kristol then proceeded to talk at length about a possible credentials/rules fight at the convention over those states' disputed delegate slates from the January primaries, but IMHO, they missed the point entirely. Strickland's comments appeared to pretty straightforwardly confirm Hillary's pivot to a new strategy on Michigan and Florida: pressing for a re-vote instead of (indefensibly) demanding that the earlier null-and-void primaries be honored.

This strategic shift, predicted several weeks ago by blogger FlyOnTheWall, is exactly what Team Clinton should be doing, and although Hillary might well win those states again, I would support a re-vote, as I explained yesterday and elaborated earlier today. If you're going to count those states, re-votes (actually the first real votes, since the previous primaries were intrinsically meaningless) are the way to do it.

On the other hand, Hillary herself just asserted in her victory speech that "we've won Florida... [and] Michigan." Hmm.

UPDATE: Here are Governor Strickland's comments, followed by an entertaining Fox News roundtable discussion of the issue:

Ron Paul wins!

By Brendan Loy

No, John McCain's lone remaining challenger didn't win any states tonight. But he did win the primary in his district to keep in House seat. Results here.

There's no word yet on Kucinich.

UPDATE: Looks like Kucinich won, too.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that Hillary Clinton will win the Ohio Democratic primary.

Fox: Hillary wins Ohio

By Brendan Loy

Brit Hume: "As you can see, the margin is now almost 200,000 votes. There are a lot of votes still out there, we concede, but Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, and wins it, possibly -- for all we know, she may win it comfortably."

Wolf Blitzer, Wolf Blitzer

By Brendan Loy

As I noted below, Wolf Blitzer was in full self-caricature mode when he announced that John McCain had clinched the GOP nomination: the rambling run-on sentences, the senseless repetition of people's names and other random words, the redundant recitation of the same facts over and over again, the odd choices of verbal emphasis, the constant talk about everything being "important" and "historic," the endless self-referential comments, the unnecessary references to "right now," "standing by," etc., etc.

I patched together a video of the carnage:

Fox > CNN?

By Brendan Loy

I've been mostly watching CNN throughout this primary season, and when I've occasionally flipped over to Fox News, I've found its coverage to be neither significantly better nor significantly worse than CNN's. But just now, flipping over to Fox, I find that they're interviewing one of their "decision desk" guys, who is actually explaining what the numbers mean, what to expect, what to watch for, etc. The analysis is much more helpful than CNN's flashy touch-screen map coupled with John King's relatively inane and obvious pseudo-analysis.

Clinton, Obama battle behind the scenes

By Brendan Loy

While the vote-counting in Ohio and Texas continues apace, a pair of pitched behind-the-scenes battles are also raging between the Clinton and Ohio camps. One involves superdelegates:

A behind-the-scenes battle broke out late Tuesday over superdelegates who had secretly committed to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), with Clinton campaign officials scrambling to “freeze” them before they announced support for him.

The battle reflects the trench warfare that both campaigns expect if the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination stretches on to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.

The second battle involves the still-ongoing Texas caucuses:

In an extraordinary Clinton conference call -- in which the campaign alleged irregularities in the Texas caucuses -- the top lawyer for the Obama campaign (Bob Bauer) jumped on the call during the Q&A session to rebut the Clinton camp's charges.

The Clinton campaign alleged (among other things) that Obama supporters were confiscating precinct chairman manuals at the caucuses, as well as locking out Clinton supporters from the precincts.

"What is happening tonight is an outrage," said Clinton Texas state director Ace Smith. "It's really disturbing and it's really undemocratic what is going on."

More here.

Regardless of whether the accusations of irregularities are correct, it sounds like absolute chaos at the caucuses, per CNN's reporting.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects: Clinton wins Rhode Island; Obama takes Vermont; Texas, Ohio still too close to call.

Interesting development on Fox News election coverage

By Jay Johnson

Maybe Steve Jobs has already gone apoplectic. (Maybe appleplectic?)

Karl Rove is rockin' a MacBook Air on Fox News.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Jim Hu has a photo, taken with an iPhone no less:

Hillary wins Rhode Island

By Brendan Loy

So says Fox and MSNBC.

No word yet from Wolf Blitzer, Wolf Blitzer.

UPDATE: CNN, CNN also calls Rhode Island for Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton.

The streak is over!

Huck-a-bye-bye

By Brendan Loy

Huckabee drops out.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Campaign manager: Mike Huckabee will drop out of GOP race.

Wolf Blitzer at his best

By Brendan Loy

"CNN projects John McCain wins the Republican presidential nomination. What a historic night for John McCain, given where he was only a few months ago. So many people had written off his candidacy, they thought he was virtually dead in the water, but John McCain never gave up, and John McCain, John McCain tonight in Texas, and earlier winning in Vermont, earlier winning in Ohio, and John McCain will now have enough delegates, 1,191, that's what you need to capture the Republican nomination, and he has managed to do it. What a night for John McCain."

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects John McCain will win the Texas GOP primary, giving him enough delegates to clinch nomination.

CNN projects McCain wins GOP nomination

By Brendan Loy

Texas puts him over the top.

The new firewall: Michigan and Florida?

By Brendan Loy

Team Clinton appears to be pivoting on its Michigan/Florida argument from the indefensible "just count the delegates" line to a far more respectable "hold new primaries" line. Good.

P.S. FlyOnTheWall predicted this several weeks ago.

Huckabee to drop out tomorrow?

By Brendan Loy

Hotline:

A Huckabee senior aide tells NBC/National Journal that Mike Huckabee tonight will congratulate John McCain and will be in touch with the McCain campaign tomorrow from Little Rock to coordinate a concession.

"The handwriting is on the wall," the aide said, and indicated that was the plan whether or not McCain officially reaches 1,191 delegates tonight.

The aide said that Huckabee wants to have contact with McCain tomorrow in Little Rock before deciding what next to do.

(Hat tip: TPM.)

UPDATE: CNN says Huck will bow out Thursday.

Kucinich & Paul

By Brendan Loy

Ron Paul has a very early lead in his primary fight to keep his House seat in Texas.

No results yet from Dennis Kucinich's district in Ohio, but they'll be posted here when they're available.

I've heard of high turnout...

By Brendan Loy

...but this is ridiculous! With 1 percent of the Texas precincts reporting, it's Obama 437,875, Clinton 306,092.

Damn -- those must be some big precincts. Either that, or Joe Kennedy lives, because if 1% of the vote equals 743,967 votes cast, that would mean a grand total of 74 million Democrats went to the polls in Texas, a 580% turnout. :)

UPDATE: I gather from the Texas Secretary of State that some counties have reported all of their "early votes" as a single "precinct." That would explain the oddly huge numbers.

Heh.

By Brendan Loy

Michael Crowley:

In the last couple of hours I've gotten allegedly reliable Ohio exit poll information showing

a) Narrow Obama lead

b) Narrow Hillary lead

c) Hillary blowout

d) Tie

I think from now on political journalists should turn off their BlackBerries from 5-8pm on election nights and, like, go do ESL tutoring or some other charitable work instead.

Further evidence of Crowley's point: Major Garrett says the Obama camp is optimistic about their Ohio prospects "for the first time today," while others talk about an "Obama freefall." Huh?

No Ohio results until 9:00 PM?

By Brendan Loy

Apparently there will be no real numbers from Ohio until 9:00 PM EST:

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner has ordered all 88 counties to hold results until after voting concludes in Sandusky County at 9 p.m. The county ran short of ballots, and Brunner went to court to keep the polls open in that county for an extra hour and a half.

And Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is seeking a court order to extend voting hours in Cuyahoga County, where bad weather hindered the ability of some voters to get to the polls.

UPDATE: On the other hand, here are some numbers. I guess some county missed the memo?

Anyway, with a fraction of a percent of the precincts reporting, Hillary leads, 56% to 42% (2,029 votes to 1,526). If no more results come out until 9:00 PM, that 14-point Clinton margin will be on CNN's crawl for quite a while.

P.S. CNN's exit-poll numbers from Ohio suggest a 51% to 48% lead for Clinton. (But, as Ben Smith notes, the exit-poll numbers "sometimes change as the night goes on and pollsters adjust for reality." And as Jonathan Chait points out, a three-point margin is "close enough that the result could easily be off.")

UPDATE 2: Some Cuyahoga County (i.e., Cleveland-area) polling places will indeed stay open late.

Wouldn't it be funny...

By Brendan Loy

...if, with Clinton in Ohio and Obama in Texas tonight for their respective "victory parties," Obama wins Ohio and Clinton wins Texas? Seems possible, based on the early exit-poll numbers.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that John McCain will win the Republican primary in Ohio; Clinton, Obama in competitive race.

YEARRRRHH!!! Obama takes Vermont

By Brendan Loy

Make it 12 in a row for Barack Obama, who has been declared the winner in Howard Dean's home state of Vermont. (Hollerin' Howard, you may recall, won Vermont's primary in 2004 despite having already dropped out of the race.)

Based on the leaked exit poll numbers, it sounds like that'll be the last Democratic primary tonight that the media will be able to "call" right as the polls close.

Exit-poll "second wave" more Obama-friendly: TX, OH, RI deadlocked?

By Brendan Loy

Contrary to earlier reports showing Hillary Clinton "exceeding expectations," the latest exit-poll data -- the so-called "second wave" -- shows Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island all looking like dead heats, "the latter two of which would be pretty substantial surprises," in a good way, from Obama's perspective. Specifically, according to Jim Geraghty:

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

Meanwhile, Right Pundits says, "CLINTON INTERNALS FOR OHIO . . . Clinton 49 Obama 46, Clinton expects to gain about 8 delegates overall."

Sounds like we won't be hearing any early media "calls," except for Vermont, tonight.

P.S. More numbers here: VT - Obama 67-33; OH - Obama 51-49; TX - Obama 51-49; RI - tied 49-49.

Also here: the same as above, except 50-49 Obama in TX.

On the other hand, Matthew Yslesias is "hearing big Hispanic turnout in Texas (good for Clinton) and a huge Clinton edge among late-deciders (obviously good for Clinton)."

Hillary "exceeding expectations" in unweighted exit-poll "first wave"

By Brendan Loy

Via Right Pundits:

2.41pm - It really does appear that Hillary is exceeding expectations in the early data. As we always caution, take first waves as they are meant to be, which is a pile of data that has not been properly normalized for known demographics. More in a minute. ...

3.50 EST - Turnout is much higher than any previous primary, but turnout is LOWER than all the pundits were predicting. Most pundits and those in the know thought turnout would exceed 3 million, some even suggesting it would be closer to 3.5 million. Absent a huge surge this evening, the predictions seem to be off. Young African American turnout is 1/3 lower than expected, maybe they’ll show up in the final wave [of exit poll data]?? ...

4.30 EST - Mood in Obama camp shifting to subdued. They are lowering expectations this afternoon and talking about the next contests like Hillary did in past days. Obama: “We closed the gap, but you know whether it’s going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on turnout. We know there’s not going to be a huge shift in delegates one way or another — just given the math. Which means that either way we will go to Mississippi or Wyoming next week.”

Take it for what, if anything, it's worth. As always, remember the Seven-Hour Presidency of John Kerry.

P.S. Early Ohio data, when available, will be here.

Ye Olde Super Tuesday open thread

By Brendan Loy

On this "original" Super Tuesday ("Super Tuesday Classic," perhaps? Nah, I think I prefer "Ye Olde Super Tuesday"), I'm going to do the same thing I did on "Super Duper Tuesday" last month: I'll keep an "open thread" on top of the homepage all night, so y'all can comment in one place and not have the conversation scroll rapidly down the page as new CNN alerts and other posts appear. Of course, you're free to comment on other posts as well.

Anyway, new posts will appear below.

Required reading for horse-race junkies

By Brendan Loy

Three must-read posts from The New Republic's blogs on tonight's Ye Olde Super Tuesday contests:

• Jonathan Chait's "The Number to Watch on Tuesday Night" 
• Noam Scheiber's "Where Today Will Leave Us"
• Michael Crowley's "The Day After"

Seriously, read 'em.

Also, something else to watch tonight: as MSNBC's First Read points out, two Congressmen you may have heard of -- Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and Ron Paul (R-TX) -- face potentially tough primary challenges to keep their House seats. Their districts are Ohio's 10th and Texas's 14th.

Popping the quiff in Texas

By Brendan Loy

Today's big vote in Texas is something of a quantum physics puzzle. The citizens of the Lone Star State will soon pop the quiff and learn whether or not they count!

If Clinton wins, Texas is another big, important state that proves Hillary's mass appeal and electability. If Obama wins, Texas is another meaningless, illegitimate, caucus-tainted sinkhole that's "not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee" anyway. It's Idaho writ large, if you will -- so who really cares about it? Ohio and Rhode Island are the states that matter! :)

(At the moment, of course, in accordance with the paradox of Schrödinger's cat, Texas both counts and doesn't count.)

Anyway, Josh Marshall sums up where things stand:

If the polls bear out, we seem set for a result that will lead to minor or major crowing from the Clinton camp, with a victory in Ohio seeming very likely and at a least a primary popular vote victory in Texas looking like a distinct possibility. The Obama camp will counter, and they'll be right, that judged by the standards of a few weeks ago, these results only amount to Clinton holding on by the skin of her teeth. But the expectations game isn't 'fair'. It's what it is, they're expectations. And there's simply no denying that such an aura of victory has grown up around Obama that losing one or both of these big states (at least the popular vote in Texas, which, remember, also has a caucus that seems likely to bag a lot of delegates for Obama) will be perceived as a very real turnaround.

And yet, look at the delegate counts, or what they seem likely to be. We've run the numbers, and even assuming a very big night for Clinton, she seems unlikely to make more than a small dent in Obama's lead of roughly 150 pledged delegates. Indeed, she could actually do quite well on the popular vote side and end up falling behind a bit further on pledged delegates.

The upshot is that the Clinton campaign may come out of tonight with a major shot in the arm and a round of good press and yet still be in no more realistic a position to win the nomination based on the stubborn tally of delegates.

Sounds about right. But let's wait and see what the voters decide.

It's Longhorn-Buckeye Tuesday!

By Brendan Loy

...or, to be more precise, Longhorn-Buckeye-Catamount-Ram Tuesday!

Really, though, all eyes are on Texas, the land of the Longhorns (and Aggies and Red Raiders and Bears, oh my!). I think we can pretty much assume that Hillary will win icy Ohio and Rhode Island, and Obama will win Vermont. The big question mark, and the state that will determine the day's "winner," is Texas.

And to think, everybody thought Teaxs was giving up its influence on the primary season by sticking with Ye Olde Super Tuesday instead of moving to Super Duper Tuesday like all the cool kids did. Quoth the AP:

AUSTIN — The failure of state legislation to switch the 2008 Texas primary to Feb. 5 from March 4 likely means the presidential primary contest will be decided in other states, some of which bumped up elections to have more clout in choosing the major parties’ nominees.

“There is no doubt that Texas is going to be less relevant and may be irrelevant,” said George Edwards, a political science professor at Texas A&M University.

Hahaha! Oh waiter, one order of crow for Professor Edwards! ;)

Anyway, Halperin has the scoop on tonight's poll-closing times. In EST, they are: Vermont: 7pm. Ohio: 7:30pm. Texas: 8pm, western counties at 9pm (caucuses to follow). Rhode Island: 9pm.

Clinton will be in Columbus, Ohio tonight. Obama will be in San Antonio, Texas. Will they both get to have victory parties? It's possible, although it seems all the late movement is in Hillary's direction, so she may get to declare victory in both states. We shall see.