Will Knox County's turmoil help Obama?

There's an article in today's New York Times about the recent shenanigans in Knox County government, which have caused a wholesale public uprising against the county commission. "A longing for reform, for fresh faces and new ideas, has overtaken Knox County," the Times writes, "so much so that many people here cannot wait to vote in the Super Tuesday primary. And it has nothing to do with who might be the next president."

I wonder, though, if it might affect the presidential race. Knox County is heavily Republican -- Bush got 62% of the vote in 2004 -- but there has been talk that Democrats might have a chance of getting elected to local offices that they normally don't have a prayer of winning, because of all the recent corruption and the resultant "kick the bums out" mentality. Tomorrow's election, of course, does not pit Republicans against Democrats, but it does give voters a choice of which party's ballot they want when they walk into their polling place. (Tennessee does not have party registration. Everyone is unaffiliated, and then you pick your party-for-a-day whenever there's a primary.)

With competitive Democratic primaries in four of the eight open County Commission seats -- itself an anomaly -- and the countywide Democratic primary for County Clerk (between an old-guard insider and a former deputy clerk who claims she was fired for announcing her candidacy) to boot, and with voters ticked off against the mostly-Republican ruling clique, I wonder if an unusual number of normally Republican-leaning voters will ask for Democratic ballots, motivated by the local races rather than the national ones, and then will find themselves confronted with the prospect of choosing between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. If so, I imagine it will help Obama; rock-ribbed East Tennessee Republicans are not going to vote for Hillary. And racial politics isn't that big of a deal in East Tennessee (we're more Appalachia than Deep South), so I don't foresee a big anti-Obama racist vote here.

Bottom line, I think the turmoil in Knox County politics might net Obama a handful of votes that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise. It probably won't make a difference in the delegate count -- the 2nd Congressional District has an even number of delegates, four, so it doesn't matter -- but a Knox-for-Obama surge could decrease Hillary's statewide popular-vote margin ever so slightly. That could sway an at-large delegate this way or that, and anyway, every little bit counts in the perceptions game, right?

Comments

[Joe Loy]

"...a Knox-for-Obama surge could decrease Hillary's statewide popular-vote margin ever so slightly. That could sway an at-large delegate this way or that, and anyway, every little bit counts in the perceptions game, right?"

Riiight ;} Of course you Know, you're a Fanatic :].

"Joe, come to the phone, Brendan's calling back with another political Detail he forgot to tell you." / "Oy. Well, he's Doing his Flips of course; it's Time." / "Yeahwell, he didn't lick That off the grass y'know, here, take the damn Phone." :}

Here's hoping Yer Man doesn't Flop tomorrow. Let the Flippings proceed. :>

[Joe Loy]

PS ~ a propos of the Knox County Turmoil: does anybody know the Results of the bigfat Florida Statewide Fiscal Referendum, which was the subterranean Driving Force behind the FLDems' demand (which was rejected) that the DNC bless the moving of their Primary date, contra national party rules, in order to Coincide with Same for purposes of Interestgroup Turnout? So as to Match the legislature-dominant FLRepubs' scheduling of (a) said Referendum and (b) their PresPrim on the selfsame January day, to maximize the turnout of their "The Flag, the Bible, and No Damn Taxes" constituency?

(Yeah, sure, I Could've looked up the Answer in a fraction of the time that it took to write the foregoing Query; but I Prefer to do it This way. :)

[Brian Foster]

Since when is Appalachia free from racism?