Wednesday's CW today

If, as expected, Obama sweeps the Beltway states tomorrow -- particularly if he does it convincingly, with landslide numbers -- I suspect the growing media consensus that Hillary's in trouble and March 4 might not be able to save her, which has been percolating for a couple of days and will be solidified by tomorrow's NYT article, could lead the MSM, and perhaps (more importantly) some superdelegates, to essentially designate next Tuesday's Wisconsin primary as a pre-March 4 "firewall" for Hillary.

Maybe they won't demand that she win Wisconsin, but if she loses badly (again), it'll leave a very bad taste in her supporters' mouths heading into the two weeks off before Texas and Ohio, and I could see some superdelegates jumping ship early (super-jumpers?) rather than waiting till the 4th.

P.S. Of course, having said all that, the history of this campaign says that Hillary will win Virginia tonight. Anytime you start writing her political obituary, she comes back out of nowhere.

Comments

[Joe Loy]

"...designate next Tuesday's Wisconsin primary as a pre-March 4 'firewall,' a sort of mini-Waterloo for Hillary."

Yes & let us Never forget that Also next Tuesday is the mighty Washington State Republican Primary (scroll Considerably down, to where it says "Tuesday 19 February 2008: Primary"), to allocate to presidential candidates 19 delegate slots, these being in addition to the 18 the Process of whose Allocation Allegedly ;> was to have beenInitiated at Saturday's Caucuses, of whose "results" The Huckabuck now demands a Full Recount :). Woo woo :>.

Whether the local blowback from Saturday's Shenanigans will spark the Huckster's Revenge next week ~ or, perhaps, sound the Pastor's Retreat instead ~ remains to be Seen. :}

[David K.]

CW?

[Wobbly H]

Conventional wisdom, Davie.

[David K.]

I just figured he was talking about Charlie Weis for some reason :)

[Brendan Loy]

Heh. I'm pretty sure Wednesday's Charlie Weis will be the same as today's Charlie Weis. :)

[Joe Mama]

the history of this campaign says that Hillary will win Virginia tonight.

Not if the voters in my precinct in Arlington are any indication. Waited on line for an hour this morning next to more than a few vocal Obama supporters. I actually felt bad for the woman at the table holding the Republican's voter rolls -- I don't think I saw anyone in the 30 or so people ahead of me give her their name and get a Republican primary ballot card (the actual voting in Precinct 008 was electronic, however).

I myself voted for Obama -- not because I support him, but because after weighing the options, the chance to vote against Hillary was too good to pass up.

[Brian Foster]

I myself voted for Obama -- not because I support him, but because after weighing the options, the chance to vote against Hillary was too good to pass up.

You might have gotten that chance in November, you know.

[Joe Mama]

On a side note, my wife and I could spot the Hillary voters a mile away -- she has the ugly women's vote locked up tight.

(I kid, I kid)

[Joe Mama]

Yes, Brian, I may get the chance to vote against Hillary in November. And perhaps a more strategic Republican voter would have voted for Hillary since she appears to be the more vulnerable candidate against McCain in the general election. I obviously also could have voted for McCain, who I'll be voting for in November (although while he's currently polling closer to Huckabee in VA than Clinton is to Obama I think, McCain already has the nomination well in hand). But in the end, my fear that Hillary as the nominee could actually ride out the strong anti-Republican tide this election cycle and become president for the next 4 years was simply too much to bear. That, and I might very well have lost my breakfast voting for her. I'll confess, though, that I was this close to voting for either Guiliani or Thompson, whose names were obviously still on the ballot. But then reality set in, and I didn't want to waste my vote.

[dcl]

Well, From my Precinct in Arlington we had general election level turn out, with a very bored Republican poll worker and lots, and I mean LOTS of 20 somethings voting. There was also a massive cadre of Obama supports at the bar last night, with one really cute blond girl, but I digress... So at least in Northern Virginia the conventional wisdom would suggest that Hillary is on the ropes. The rest of the conventional wisdom is she has no chance at all in DC or MD... Honestly I think if she gets blown out (read the continuation of the 20 plus percent Obama margins) in all three states to make it 8 blow out losses in a row for Hillary this thing could well be over before the weekend. Forget March 4, the Giuliani strategy is a loser...

[Derek]

Curiously, while the "Huck turnout in VA" meme has been getting a lot of play, one thing I have heard far less about--the "GOP turnout for Hillary" meme. That is, without much at stake in the GOP race, how many Republican voters are showing up to the polls to pick Hillary-the-beatable? Virginia's an open primary. Heck, so's Wisconsin, and Ohio, and Texas. I've heard a couple of murmurrings about Republicans planning on playing in the Dem sandbox today, but I wonder if it'll have a non-negligible effect at the polls. Just something to keep in mind today.

[Brendan]

If it's going to have a non-negligible effect anywhere, you'd think it'd be in Virginia, which has to have the highest per-capita population of political junkies anywhere in the country.

[Joe Loy]

Yes & quite relatedly, if the abovereported voterless Boredom of the Republican pollworkers in McCainfriendly NOVA is indeed attributable to Presumptive Backers of the Nominee Presumptive presumptuously ;> crossing over to Demvote either strategically For, or impatiently Against, Hillary (the latter impulse perhaps manifesting The Fierce Urgency Of Now :) ~~ WELL then, maybe the prophesied Huckamiracle is Happening before our very eyes today :), to be Revealed tonight through Wolf Blitzer's very lips, by his very Lips, lips, revealed, tonight. :>

[Brian Foster]

Indeed. And the irony of it all will be that the GOPers playing in the Dems' sandbox may well cancel each other out, with some voting strategically and others voting impatiently.

The net result being not only the Huckamiracle that further weakens Republican prospects in November (either because it deepens McCain's wound of perception regarding his allegedly insufficient conservatism, or because it actually makes it incrementally more likely that Huckabee could win the nomination), but also an utter lack of having any impact on the Dem side, as strategerists and impatienters offset one another and the race remains decided by the Dem primary's natural participants.

Sigh.

[Joe Loy]

OK, Brendan, I commentposted my Above before reading your "Can Huckabee Do It?" post, which says the same thing, but Comprehensibly. :)

Right, Brian Foster. // "strategerists and impatienters" ~ LOL! :)