Tim McDonald wins GOP contest; Loy, Brown battle in Dem, combined contests

In light of my post below about California delegate allocations, in concert with my earlier post about Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contest scenarios, BrendanLoy.com can now make some projections regarding the contest winners. (Cue dramatic music, swooshing graphics, and Wolf Blitzer needlessly repeating every third word out of his mouth.)

Tim McDonald will win the Republican contest by virtue of the John McCain California delegate tiebreaker. McCain will get at least 155 of the Golden State's 170 delegates; McDonald predicted he'd get 110, the highest number among the four contestants who tied for first place with 17-for-21 prediction records. Joe Loy (who said McCain would get 98 delegates) finishes second; Marty West (88) finishes third; and Andrew Bottom (88) finishes fourth.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, it's a two-man race between Joe Loy and Ben Brown. Sam Cialek, who is tied with Loy and Brown with a 20-for-22 prediction record, is nevertheless eliminated from the Democratic contest because his prediction of Hillary Clinton's California delegate total (170) is lower than Loy's (190), which is in turn closer to Clinton's actual projected total of 207. However, in order to win the contest, Loy needs to avoid finishing tied for first place with Brown, who predicted that Clinton would get 191 delegates in the Golden State. Thus, Loy needs Clinton to win New Mexico and Obama to win Democrats Abroad. If both of those things happen, Loy wins; if either one doesn't happen, Brown wins.

The scenarios for the combined contest remain unchanged from my previous update. It is also a two-man race between Loy and Brown, like the Democratic contest, but the contestants' needs are different (because Brown got one more state wrong on the GOP side than Loy did). In the combined contest, Loy needs only one of the above-mentioned events (Clinton winning New Mexico, Obama winning Democrats Abroad) to happen; Brown needs them both to not happen.

Comments

[Bea]

Unrelated to this post but, my mom called me this morning to find out if the Loys were ok. She heard about tornadoes in TN, and everything sounded like somethingville, so she was worried about tornadoes in Knoxville. I told her I was sure you were all safe, since you'd been blogging all day and night :)

[Joe Loy]

Bea, everything IS Somethingville in Tennessee. Knoxv'll, Nashv'll, Murrv'll...this is why Mike Huckabee won, you see...hi, Jay Johnson... ;}.

"(Cue dramatic music, swooshing graphics, and Wolf Blitzer needlessly repeating every third word out of his mouth.)"

heeheehee lol WAW HAW HAW! Excellent :) Hearty congratulations to surnameless Tim on his hard-fought & well-earned Repub contest victory :). Sagely skeptical of the alleged California Romney Wildfire, he foresaw that the supposed Serpentine Surge would shed its fake snakeskin on Tuesday, and thus he Nailed us more-gullible competitors on the delegate-total Tiebreaker :>.

Now as to the other 2 contests, be Very afraid, Ben Brown :). I just got off the phone with the incomplete New Mexico precincts and the still-voting Expatriate Dems ;>. I asked 'em how much is our Plurality as of now. They replied, "How much do you need?" :)

[Angrier and Angrier]

Obama is officially ahead of Hillary in the delegate count...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html

Drudge is reporting that the Clintons are now having to dip into their personal funds to finance Hillary's campaign. If that is true, Super Tuesday was Hillary's best shot and it FAILED! This means Obama can outspend her in the next series of primaries and hopefully build on his lead!

[Joe Loy]

In any event, Joe Loy can now project that Joe Loy is the winner of the Joe Loy Contest to Predict the Results in Fairfield County, Connecticut :}.

Unofficial returns indicate that Joe Loy trounced Survey USA, whose poll had the "Fairfield Region" (presumably meaning the County, there Being no such Region otherwise :) favoring Hillary Clinton (scroll to far right of the linked chart). In the 7th comment to this post, Loy refuted it Thus ;} ~~

"Most (perhaps Only) counterintuitive finding: Fairfield County for Clinton. I Question that. Fairfield County Dems are essentially a grand coalition of the innercity Afro-Ams of Bridgeport plus the outerborough Euro-Am YuppityUps populating the affluent Remainder of the Panhandle and the woodsy-woods region Upcountry ;]. Now if these 2 Demographics don't combine to give the county to Obama, why, they're just not Following the Rules, is all :>..."

[Here follows some unimportant bet-hedging arse-covering fol-de-rol in which Loy blithers about what's On the Other hand & similar now-Moot matters, before pronouncing his boldly prescient Prediction / ~ ed. :]

...So yeah, there's Hillary Potential in our fair state's Gilded Southwest. / But I still say Barack takes the county :}.

Click on the little Map in the box at the right. In Fairfield County (whose boundaries are not Delineated in the map but Trust me on this :) Obama took 15 towns to Clinton's 8, including All of the Bigfat ones except Danbury up north & always-cranky Stratford at the east end, and featuring a solid Wall of Barackism running down the goldplated Panhandle, from Easton and Fairfield town itself, all the way to the legendary LimousineLiberal backcountry lanes of Greenwich :>.

Town-by-town totals, extracted & subtotaled for The Fairfield 23 :) produce the County result ~

Obama: 40,897 (53.1% of the 2-candidate-only total)
Clinton: 36,100 (46.9% of same)

(In recognition of my Big Win I plan to award myself a T-shirt emblazoned with grand-coalitional pictures of Bridgeport Dem State Senator Ed Gomes and Darien Dem [!] First Selectwoman Evonne Klein and the motto, "Don't Mess With Fairfield" :)

[Joe Loy]

And not to geek out Entirely or anythinglikethat :} but did anybody else review the Details of the Republican Returns from the USSR (Utah Soviet Socialist Republic :)?

I mean, I've little doubt that the the Borg Collective the Beehive State conducts free & fair quadrennial Swarms Elections but I gotta Tellya, I haven't seen so Frighteningly-near-unanimous a statewide Vote outcome since Mississippi's in that long-ago November of 1964 ~ and THAT one, notwithstanding that it was Neither free nor fair nor even remotely Constitutional by a Longshot, still attained a Mere 87.14% for the Official State Candidate, well short of the 90% rolled up for the Anointed One in This instance.

Look, I'm all for Favorite Sons (& nevermind about Michigan & Massachusetts, that's just Extra :) and I don'twannaSayanythingBut: maybe we should just leave the deployment of the monolithic Ecclesiastical blocvoting to the Eye-raynian Shiite Mullahs & the Brooklynite Lubavitch Rebbes, here, and remind Utah that she Was, after all, admitted to the Union only upon receipt of certain Assurances that she would Not function as, in effect, a Theocracy.

Rmmph.

:)

{Yeah, yeah, I'm a religious Bigot. I know I know. / In '64 when I was (in my teenage naïveté :) Pleased about those ridiculous Magnolia State results, They told me I was a Racial one. Which Also wasn't true. / So, Skip it. :)

[mehdi_anisnezhad]

339 days