The forgotten election calendar

Politico's Ben Smith has a post up about "chaos" at a Nevada county convention, an event that he says "was supposed to be something like a formality, ratifying the choices of caucusgoers last month."

Hmm... well, as a practical matter, that might be true. But procedurally speaking, it's not correct. Let's go to The Green Papers for an explanation of the actual process.

Back on January 19, when Nevada held its public caucuses, voters in each precinct chose not presidential candidates, nor national-convention delegates "pledged" to a particular candidate. Instead, they chose delegates to the very county conventions that were held yesterday. It's a bit like how, on "Election Day" in November, we're actually voting for presidential electors, not the candidates they're pledged to. Except in this case, the system is even more convoluted, and nobody's "pledged" to anybody. "While a non-binding Presidential Preference Poll is conducted during the caucuses, delegates at the Precinct Caucus level are not bound to their declared Presidential preference."

Next in the process are the county conventions, which choose the county's delegates to the Nevada State Democratic Convention. Again, "while a non-binding Presidential Preference Poll is conducted during the Conventions, delegates at the Precinct Caucus level are not bound to their declared Presidential preference."

Finally, the delegates selected by the county conventions meet at the state convention from April 18 to 20, and only then are the national convention delegates actually allocated and chosen.

Nevada is hardly unique in this regard. Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming will all be allocating national-convention delegates at little-noticed, low-profile events over the next few months. These events will be treated as rubber-stamp formalities by the media -- if they're even discussed at all -- but in a race this close, where every delegate counts, they could potentially be very important.

For instance, if you thought you knew the pledged-delegate count in Iowa (supposedly Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14), you may be in for a surprise when the county conventions convene on March 15. Will Edwards's county delegates stick with Johnny Boy, or will they vote for one of the other two candidates? Will any of Hillary's county delegates have changed their minds as Obama-mania has taken hold over the last month-and-a-half? Or, conversely, will any Obama supporters have switched to Hillary? As The Green Papers notes, there's nothing to stop them from doing so. And a switcheroo here or there could alter the delegate balance.

Iowa is particularly likely to see changes from the expected tally because of the Edwards effect, but the other states bear watching, too. The Obama and Clinton camps may have pledged not to "poach" national convention delegates once they're allocated, but that isn't the case yet in these states. And even without "poaching," we could see delegates individually changing their minds. So I think it's worth a closer look at this bit of potentially important procedural minutiae.

The bottom line is this: in many of the caucus states, the current "delegate counts" are really just estimates. The national-convention delegates are actually allocated through a multi-stage process that only began with the public caucuses. Different states have different procedures, but they generally go something like Nevada's: the only thing that's happened so far is that the voters have elected county or district delegates. Those delegates will soon convene at county or district conventions, at which they'll elect delegates to the state convention. The state delegates will then convene and elect the national delegates -- the ones who'll go to the convention in Denver. Only then will a firm, final "delegate count" be possible. In some states, this process doesn't conclude until May or June.

The states that allocate all of their delegates in a multi-stage process are Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, Washington and Wyoming. In addition, Nebraska and Texas both allocate one-third of their delegates in this way.

The rest of the states, if they've voted, have already allocated their delegates, meaning they have an official "pledged delegate count." But most of them don't yet have actual delegates -- individual human beings selected to fill those "allocated" numerical spots. The actual delegates who fill out the "allocations" are generally not selected until the spring. For the most part, though, surprises are highly unlikely in that process, since the candidates in such states aren't competing for the title of "delegate" (like they are in Iowa, Nevada, etc.), but rather for the title of "Clinton delegate" or "Obama delegate." In other words, it's a bunch of Obama supporters running against each other to fill their state's Obama slots, and a bunch of Clinton supporters running aganist each other to fill their state's Clinton slots. Since the candidates have the right to approve of disapprove of their own delegate candidates, disloyalty and shenanigans are unlikely. So we probably don't need to watch these "other" states very closely.

Except, of course, for Michigan. As I've detailed previously, there could definitely be some shenanigans in the Wolverine State when the congressional district conventions meet to determine the identities of 47 national Clinton delegates and, more to the point, 36 national "Uncommitted" delegates. If they honor the voters' intent, those Uncommitted delegates really ought to be Obama supporters, but there's nothing to stop Hillary's supporters from electing Clinton loyalists to fill those spots in districts where the majority of convention-goers are pro-Clinton. This could result in Michigan's ghost-delegation to the DNC being considerably more Clinton-dominated than we currently expect, which would only serve to fuel the fire of the controversy over those delegates. (About which, more here.)

Anyway, here's a calendar of the various delegate-selection events in the twelve aforementioned caucus states, plus Michigan. Information courtesy of -- who else? -- The Green Papers. Let me know if you spot any errors.

NOTE: I've put an asterisk next to those events at which national delegates will actually be allocated and/or elected. That includes the congressional-district-level events in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and Washington, which allocate and elect (or, in Michigan's case, merely elect) their district-based and at-large delegates separately -- the district-based delegates at the district conventions, the at-large delegates at the state convention. (Confused yet?) Anyway, without further ado...

February 19 - March 14: North Dakota legislative-district conventions
February 20 - March 17: Colorado county conventions
February 23: Nevada county conventions
March 15: Iowa county conventions
March 29: Texas county and legislative-district conventions
*March 29: Michigan congressional-district conventions
*April 4-6: North Dakota state convention
April 5: Washington legislative-district caucuses
*April 18-20: Nevada state convention
April 19: Washington county and legislative-district caucuses
*April 26: Iowa congressional-district conventions
*May 3-10: Colorado congressional-district conventions
*May 17: Colorado state convention
*May 17: Washington congressional-district caucuses
*May 17: Michigan state convention
*May 23-25: Hawaii state convention
*May 24: Alaska state convention
*May 24: Wyoming state convention
*May 31: Maine state convention
June 1-10: Nebraska county conventions
*June 6-7: Texas state convention
*June 12-14: Idaho state convention
*June 14: Iowa state convention
*June 15: Washington state convention
*June 28: Nebraska state convention

Comments

Not sure where else to post this comment, but check out the Huffington Post right now. A mocking attack on Obama's message of hope. This line of attack is irritating and sad at the same time.

[Joe Loy]

A superb post, Brendan. / Excellently Titled, too. Spot On.

(By God you do make your old daddy Proud, when you go all Proceduralistic Persnickety like this. Attsa muh Boy. :> Don't ever lose Track of da Fack that the ripest of Seeds can be found In The Weeds. :)

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"The states that allocate all of their delegates in a multi-stage process are Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, Washington and Wyoming. In addition, Nebraska and Texas both allocate one-third of their delegates in this way."

Yes & as you contemplate, with anticipatory worst-case-scenario Frustration, the not-implausible Possibility of narrow-but-still-O'mentum-slowing Hillary Winneries in the Popular Votes of both Ohio and Texas a week from Tuesday, remember that the Texas First Stage of that 67-megaton-delegate counterstrike gets Launched when [scroll down] ~

...precinct conventions are to be convened no earlier than 7:15 P.M. local time the day of the presidential primary (the polls will have closed in Texas at 7 P.M.) to begin the process of choosing the delegates to County and Senate District Conventions.

Saturday 29 March 2008: Tier 2. County and Senate District Conventions select delegates to State Convention.

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008: Tier 3. State Convention. The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates...

...67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.