Satellite shoot-down set for Thursday Wednesday night during lunar eclipse, southwest of Hawaii

The Navy will try to shoot down the errant spy satellite on Thursday, assuming the Space Shuttle lands as planned on Wednesday.

UPDATE: According to SpaceWeather.com, the attempt will actually be Wednesday night here in North America, which is early Thursday morning Greenwich Mean Time. Here's what SpaceWeather says:

Rumor has it that the US Navy may make its first attempt to hit USA 193 this Wednesday evening as the satellite passes over the Pacific Ocean. An air traffic advisory warns pilots to avoid a patch of ocean near Maui from 4:30 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. Hawaii time on Feb. 20th (0230 - 0500 UT, Feb. 21st). This would center the missile strike on the darkness of Wednesday's lunar eclipse and possibly render reentering debris visible from the west coast of North America.

So there you go. From the linked map, it appears that the actual shoot-down attempt will originate a bit to the southwest of the Hawaiian islands, and will occur shortly before 5:30 PM Hawaii time (7:30 Pacific, 10:30 Eastern). If the satellite were to continue on its orbital path, its track would take it up over southern British Columbia a few minutes later, so assuming that any re-entering debris roughly follows the momentum of the satellite's track (which seems like it would be the case), the Pacific Northwest may have the best chance of seeing re-entering debris tomorrow night.

Incidentally, about that total lunar eclipse: mid-eclipse is at 10:26 PM EST. Here's a map showing the eclipse's visibility. Practically all of North America can see it.

Anyway, back to the spy satellite: according to this site, a second air-traffic advisory suggests the military has plans for a second shoot-down attempt Thursday night -- same time, same place -- if the Wednesday attempt fails.

CONCLUSION OF ORIGINAL POST:

In an attempt to be sure the Wednesday-morning Shuttle landing will happen as scheduled, NASA will have the backup landing site in California ready just in case there are weather problems in Florida. Usually, they don't consider a California touchdown until trying to land in Florida on at least two straight days.

But NASA wants the Shuttle out of orbit before the satellite shoot-down happens -- and the military wants to hurry things along with the shoot-down, so they can make a second attempt if the first one fails. The satellite is expected to re-enter the atmosphere around March 6 if it isn't shot down.

If you have a decently dark sky, it may be possible to see the satellite flying overhead in the evening or early morning in the next couple of days, before it's shot down. You can find out about any viewing opportunities at Heavens Above; enter your location and then click on the link to the "special information page" for "Decaying spy satellite USA 193." Then scroll down to the bottom and follow the link that says "Click here for predictions for your location."

Comments

[Joe Loy]

Now, it's my understanding (??) that this missile destroys its target (if at all) by means of Kinetic energy. / In other words its Warhead is like unto a verylargecaliber Slug :}, which carries no Explosives and thus to succeed, must Wallop the enemy bird Spot On. Hitting a bullet with a bullet. (I almost said "literally" but justbarely Caught myself, there :) / Is that correct? If So it seems a rather Remarkable task. / Good Shooting, Navy. Steady as she Goes & may the software's Aim be true. ;>

how do you enter your location?

[Brendan Loy]

Hmm... the homepage isn't appearing the way it normally does... odd. Well, if what you're seeing is a screen with a map of the Earth at right, and lots of links at left, look under "Configuration" and click "select from map" or "from database" or "edit manually." Those are the three ways to edit your location.

[isuquinndog]

So, will we be able to see an amazing explosion in the sky when this missile hits it?

[Brendan Loy]

I don't think so. If my Dad's understanding is correct -- and I think it is -- I would assume there won't be much of a visible "explosion" at all. I presume that, if you have a dark sky and the satellite happens to be passing over you when it's shot at (which seems unlikely, since I assume they'll do this while it's over the ocean), you'd see the dim sunlit dot either disappear or split into several smaller, dimmer sunlit dots. But I don't think the impact itself will generate sufficient additional light to be visible from the ground, beyond the illumination from sunlight that makes satellites visible in the first place.

But that's all speculation on my part; I could be entirely wrong.

[Brendan Loy]

P.S. For that matter, since there's no air up there, there wouldn't really be a visible explosion regardless of the shoot-down method, would there? Hollywood special effects notwithstanding...

[Brendan Loy]

P.P.S. But, as my update says, some re-entering debris may be visible from the West Coast as it re-enters the atmosphere. I hadn't thought of that. And given that it'll be evening, with the sun still illuminating the upper atmosphere over the Pacific, it could be quite spectacular.

[Anonymous Hoosier]

As I understand it, the kinetic strike may or may not cause a significant amount of debris to enter the atmosphere immediately. It all depends on how the energy is distributed among the pieces -- those pieces with a large energy reduction will reenter immediately. However, given the momentum from a ground-launched missile, those that receive an energy boost ought to enter a more-elongated orbit with a higher apogee and a lower perigee, and thus re-enter half an orbit after the strike (assuming the perigee is low enough). I believe many other pieces are likely to remain in the same orbit, reentering gradually over time, although their orbits should degrade faster than the satellite as a whole would have because of a lower mass/drag ratio.

Of course, the impact could send a large piece directly into the atmosphere, but I bet the exclusion zone is as much about: 1) ensuring protection from an errant missile, as well as any boosters it sheds; and 2) limiting the ability of interested parties to surveil the firing.