Prediction contest scenarios

CNN just called Alaska for Romney. That clarifies things considerably in the Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contests. The only remaining variables are the New Mexico Democratic primary, the Democrats Abroad caucuses (whose results won't be known until next week), and the delegate counts in California, both Republican and Democratic.

Here are the contest scenarios, subject to revision if I realize I screwed something up. :)

Combined contest

It's a two-man battle between Joe Loy and Ben Brown. Loy wins if Clinton wins New Mexico or Obama wins the Democrats Abroad caucuses; Brown wins only if Obama wins New Mexico and Clinton wins the Democrats Abroad.

Republican contest

It's a four-way tie between Andrew Bottom, Marty West, Joe Loy, and Tim. The tiebreaker is who comes closest to correctly predicting John McCain's share of the 170 pledged California delegates. Bottom said McCain will get 87 delegates; West said 88; Loy said 98; and Tim said 110.

Democratic contest

If Clinton wins New Mexico, Sam Cialek and Joe Loy are tied for first place, and will stay that way. But if Clinton then wins the Democrats Abroad caucuses, which continue through next week, Ben Brown can join Cialek and Loy to finish in a three-way tie. The tie would be broken by calculating who is closer to Hillary Clinton's total number of pledged California delegates out 370 (Cialek said 170, Loy said 190, Brown said 191). If, on the other hand, Obama wins the Democrats Abroad caucus after Clinton wins NM, it'll just be a two-way tie between Cialek and Loy (to be settled by the same tiebreaker).

If Obama wins New Mexico, Brown will take sole possession of the lead, but will need Clinton to win the Democrats Abroad caucus in order to maintain sole possession. If Obama wins the Democrats Abroad caucus after Obama wins NM, then Brown falls back into a three-way tie with Cialek and Loy, to be settled by the aforementioned delegate tiebreaker.

Complete current standings after the jump.

Republican prediction results
1. Andrew Bottom - 17
1. Marty West - 17
1. Joe Loy - 17
1. Tim - 17
5. Hal Strickland - 16
5. Ben Brown - 16
5. Brendan Loy - 16
8. Ernst - 15
8. Clete Andrews - 15
8. Derek - 15
8. Brian Foster - 15
8. Kay Torg - 15
13. moepop - 14
13. Diane Lanning - 14
13. Sam Cialek - 14
13. John Norris Brown - 14
13. Jeff Morrison - 14
13. Uncle Larry - 14
19. Paul Wyostk - 13
19. Alec - 13
19. Dave Roberts - 13
19. tom - 13
19. tom - 13
24. Mike Dagen - 12
24. Mike Wiser - 12
24. JLR - 12
24. James Blunt - 12
24. Chris Carroll - 12
29. Doug Mataconis - 11
29. chazunga - 11
29. Andy Shiner - 11
29. BigSoph - 11
29. Evan Johnson - 11
29. thebeef - 11
35. Colin Pedicini - 10
35. Kat Palmore - 10
35. Becky Loy - 10
35. mculator - 10
39. Greg Beard - 9
39. Mark Gardner - 9
39. Jim_of_ToniAndJom - 9
39. reptile347 - 9
39. Randy Styles - 9
44. MT Swanson - 8
45. ALex - 7
45. Sam W - 7
(21 states in: AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA IL MA MN MO MT NJ NY ND OK TN UT WV)

Democratic prediction results
1. Sam Cialek - 20
1. Joe Loy - 20
1. Ben Brown - 20
4. Brendan Loy - 19
5. Hal Strickland - 18
5. Alec - 18
7. Derek - 17
7. Clete Andrews - 17
7. Andrew Bottom - 17
10. Kay Torg - 16
10. Ernst - 16
10. John Norris Brown - 16
10. Chris Carroll - 16
14. reptile347 - 15
14. Colin Pedicini - 15
14. tom - 15
14. Brian Foster - 15
14. Mike Wiser - 15
19. Dave Roberts - 14
19. BigSoph - 14
19. Mark Gardner - 14
19. Jeff Morrison - 14
23. Jim_of_ToniAndJom - 13
23. Mike Dagen - 13
23. Uncle Larry - 13
23. ALex - 13
27. moepop - 12
27. thebeef - 12
29. Tim - 11
29. tom - 11
29. Kat Palmore - 11
29. James Blunt - 11
29. mculator - 11
29. Evan Johnson - 11
29. Randy Styles - 11
36. chazunga - 10
36. Marty West - 10
36. Becky Loy - 10
36. Andy Shiner - 10
36. Doug Mataconis - 10
36. Sam W - 10
42. Greg Beard - 9
42. JLR - 9
42. MT Swanson - 9
42. Paul Wyostk - 9
46. Diane Lanning - 8
(22 states in: AL AK AS AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA ID IL KS MA MN MO NJ NY ND OK TN UT)

Combined prediction results
1. Joe Loy - 37
2. Ben Brown - 36
3. Brendan Loy - 35
4. Hal Strickland - 34
4. Sam Cialek - 34
4. Andrew Bottom - 34
7. Derek - 32
7. Clete Andrews - 32
9. Alec - 31
9. Ernst - 31
9. Kay Torg - 31
12. John Norris Brown - 30
12. Brian Foster - 30
14. Tim - 28
14. tom - 28
14. Jeff Morrison - 28
14. Chris Carroll - 28
18. Marty West - 27
18. Dave Roberts - 27
18. Mike Wiser - 27
18. Uncle Larry - 27
22. moepop - 26
23. Colin Pedicini - 25
23. Mike Dagen - 25
23. BigSoph - 25
26. reptile347 - 24
26. tom - 24
28. Mark Gardner - 23
28. thebeef - 23
28. James Blunt - 23
31. Diane Lanning - 22
31. Jim_of_ToniAndJom - 22
31. Paul Wyostk - 22
31. Evan Johnson - 22
35. JLR - 21
35. chazunga - 21
35. Andy Shiner - 21
35. Doug Mataconis - 21
35. Kat Palmore - 21
35. mculator - 21
41. Becky Loy - 20
41. Randy Styles - 20
41. ALex - 20
44. Greg Beard - 18
45. MT Swanson - 17
45. Sam W - 17
(43 states in)