P.R. governor backs Obama

Last week, in a much-discussed article about the final stop on the Democratic election calendar -- the Puerto Rico caucuses, on June 7 -- Michael Barone argued that the island's 63 delegates (actually 55, plus 8 supers) will probably be distributed in an effectively winner-take-all manner, and thus could prove incredibly important if Clinton and Obama are still locked in a close delegate battle at that point. Barone argues that, although proportional allocation of pledged delegates is a universal requirement under national Democratic Party rules, such a concept is "alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics," and therefore, in past years, "the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory’s delegates."

I don't know anything about Puerto Rican politics, but as I stated yesterday in comments, I think Barone will probably be proven wrong about this. Precedent from prior years is relatively meaningless in the current context, as there hasn't been a down-to-the-wire delegate battle in many years, so there hasn't been a reason for anyone to challenge any Puerto Rican party shenanigans that may have occurred. Whatever the island's Democratic power-brokers might try to pull off, I can't imagine the national party allowing its presidential nomination to be decided -- over the loud, vociferous, and absolutely correct objections of the loser -- on the basis of blatant territorial rule-breaking. So I have to believe that any effort to manufactuer a 55-0 win for either candidate will be nipped in the bud. (The actual, official rules of Puerto Rican delegate selection can be found at The Green Papers. Needless to say, they are not winner-take-all.)

That said, whether Barone is right or wrong, even a proportional battle over 55 delegates at the very end of the calendar certainly could be important -- and, as such, today's Obama endorsement by Puerto Rico's governor strikes me as pretty significant.

And if, by chance, Barone is right, then it's really significant.

Comments

[Joe Loy]

"...I can't imagine the national party allowing its presidential nomination to be decided -- over the loud, vociferous, and absolutely correct objections of the loser -- on the basis of blatant territorial rule-breaking. So I have to believe that any effort to manufacture a 55-0 win for either candidate will be nipped in the bud. (The actual, official rules of Puerto Rican delegate selection... are not winner-take-all.)"

Right. / What they have to do is simply to Ensure (a) that everybody legally Entitled to attend, and Freely vote at, the Senatorial District caucuses is in Fact permitted & encouraged to Do so without any intimidation, reprisal, etc.; and (b) that all such Votes (cast in Public) are honestly tallied. Assuming (as I do) that this occurs, then there'll be no TakeAll Winner ~ UNLESS one of the 2 candidates is Truly so unpopular locally that she/he legitimately fails to attain the 15% Threshhold at Any of the caucuses.

[Andrew]

Don't you think the overwhelming love NYC Puelto Liquenos have for HRC means they will all call their hometowns on the island and tell their families and friends to vote for HRC instead of Obama?

[Julia]

When I read this news today, a Puerto Rican commented that the PR governor has about the same approval rating as Bush, so he didn't think the endorsement would really help Obama very much.

[Julia]

When I read this news today, a Puerto Rican commented that the PR governor has about the same approval rating as Bush, so he didn't think the endorsement would really help Obama very much.