Oh really?

Time's Joe Klein says that Obama "should be very worried that this nomination is likely to be decided in the big working-class primary states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania."

Let's fact-check that assertion, shall we? As I mentioned yesterday, there are 1,428 pledged delegates still outstanding. Of those, 193 are from Texas, 158 from Pennsylvania, and 141 from Ohio. That's a total of 492 -- barely a third of the total.

Now, if it were possible for one candidate to sweep all of those delegates, that could certainly be decisive. But as we know, and presumably Klein has figured out by this point, the Democratic delegate allocation system is proportional, not winner-take-all, so the most Hillary can hope for is something like a 100-delegate edge in those states (that would be if she earns about 60% of the delegates), probably less.

Even in Clinton's best-case scenario, Obama has more than enough opportunity to make up that hypothetical 100-delegate edge in the various other states that make up two-thirds of the remaining pledged delegates -- including ones more favorable to him, like, oh, pretty much every state that votes this month (total delegates: 538). And of course, that all ignores the superdelegates, who, contra Klein, are truly the constituency in which "this nomination is likely to be decided."

Klein's (over)emphasis on Ohio and Texas is one of many examples that things are working out just as I predicted last week: "[If] Obama wins enough states that the commentariat continues to regard the race as legitimately close, . . . conventional wisdom will rapidly coalesce around the idea that March 4 is the new Big Important Day When Everything Will Be Decided. In other words, Old Super Tuesday is the new Super Tuesday!"

The media just can't help itself. They say it's a delegate race, they show us the numbers, they acknowledge that proportional allocation means nobody can gain a decisive edge... and then they proceed to wonder aloud who will gain the decisive edge in the next round of "big states." This logic is just as bogus as claiming that Hillary "won" Super Tuesday, despite losing most of the states and (apparently) most of the delegates, simply because she captured the "biggest prizes."

This isn't a reality show, people, it's a delegate fight.

The only way Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania are going to "decide" the nomination is if they create enough momentum for either candidate to convince the superdelegates that they ought to jump on the bandwagon in order to end the race more quickly. But the other states voting in between times will have something to say about that, too.

If, as seems likely, Obama wins a majority of the 538 delegates at stake between now and March 3, and then Clinton wins a majority of the 387 delegates at stake on March 4 (in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island), that'll leave the race in the same place on March 5 that it is now: hopelessly deadlocked. So how, exactly, is March 4 going to give Hillary enough momentum to bring the superdelegates off the fence en masse, which is the only way Texas and Ohio could actually be decisive?

Similarly, the 45 delegates selected between March 5 and April 21, and the 407 chosen after April 23, combine to almost triple the 158 delegates selected on April 22 (in Pennsylvania). So while Longhorn/Buckeye Tuesday and Keystone Tuesday are both important, neither of them is going to settle this race. As I wrote yesterday, that's up to the party elders and officeholders -- i.e., the superdelegates. Whether Howard Dean likes it or not, this nomination is now in the hands of the big-wigs; the voters, as I said, will play a "chiefly advisory" role from this point forward.

But don't tell that to Joe Klein or (most of) the rest of the media. They like their storylines clean and oversimplified, and consequently wrong. Don't confuse them with the truth! *sigh*

Comments

[I R A Darth Aggie]

So while Longhorn/Buckeye Tuesday and Keystone Tuesday are both important

Longhorn? *cough* Don't make me come over there.

[CD]

Klein is off, but so are you. This isn't just about numbers. It will come down to the supers and they are free to bend with the wind. Thus, it is about expectations and psychology. The supers also think traditionally for the most part (like the media)and there decisions will be based on a combination of everything they know and have experienced in politics up to this point, and clues they are picking up about momentum and popular support from the primary electorate. Will Obama pick up enough steam in the month of February to convince the supers he is inevitable... or does the fact that Hillary is still strong, particularly if she performs very well on the 4th, in spite of being very much outspent and out-media-ed, that she is cemented as the strongest candidate.

The 'cold hard numbers' are highly dependent on a group of people that are steeped in this traditional way of looking at things. Therefore, I think that what Klein says is apt... it could very well hinge on both candidates performance on 3/4.

[CD]

Anally correcting my 'there' to 'their' and my 'candidates' to 'candidates''

[Marty West]

I'm just excited my states primary means something!

[CD]

Me too! Me too! We are getting Hillary in town tonight and Obama tomorrow.

[Marty West]

Brendan,

Kudos by the way for you election coverage. Aside from your posts, I have been relying heavily on your politics blogroll and hyperlinks for the majority of my election coverage. It's a one top shop!

[Marty West]

*stop shop

[Ken]

Just received a recorded call from Clinton reminding me to vote Sunday in the Maine Caucuses. First time ever that we have gotten a call here in Maine during the primary season.

[Mad Max, Esquire]

Joe Klein is the worst. His editorial slant changes based on who is kissing his ass the most this week. The guy is a fraud and shouldn't be allowed to write for a publication like Time.