More delegate math

The New York Times has a fantastic delegate graphic today. Of particular interest to me are the stats for where the delegate count would be without proportional allocation: Obama 1,096-1,075 in a winner-take-all system by state, or Obama 1,138-1,033 in a WTA-by-district system. Fascinating.

UPDATE: It's a couple of days old, and it's long, but here's an interesting post about the delegate situation and the state of the race.

Comments

[Joe Loy]

"... the stats for where the delegate count would be without proportional allocation..."

So then, which abominably-undemocratic Process is a good liberal to decry the Louder: an Electoralcollege Election system which is undemocratically dominated by the odious state-by-state principle of popularvote-Winner-take-All; or, a "Democratic" Party Nomination mechanism that veryundemocratically lacks the verysame?

:}

[yea]

not sure which post this is most relevant to, but a new poll shows obama ahead in texas by 6.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[Derek]

Three other polls came out today showing Clinton +7, +8, and +16 in Texas.

ARG has been, by far, the worst polling company in history. Its median error for Super Tuesday was 8.5, placing it as the second worst "active" polling company (ahead of the L.A. Times). It's good for one thing: indicating who's most likely ready to lose a state.

Here was my pre-pre-Super Tuesday summary of ARG's atrocities.

IA-D ARG: Clinton 34, Obama 25, Edwards 21
IA-D Actual: Obama 38, Edwards 30, Clinton 29
[one of only two pre-IA polls to show Clinton up, and by a whopping +7, which was actually wrong by 15 points]

IA-R ARG: Huckabee 29, Romney 24, Thompson 13, McCain 11, Giuliani 8, Paul 6
IA-R Actual: Huckabee 34, Romney 25, Thompson 13, McCain 13, Paul 10, Giuliani 4
[smallest margin for Huckabee, lowest Paul, and highest Giuliani support among the last three pre-IA polls]

NH-D ARG: Obama 41, Clinton 30
NH-D Actual: Clinton 39, Obama 36
[while all polls showed an Obama lead, ARG has the second-highest margin, +9, wrong by 12 points]

NH-R ARG: McCain 31, Romney 24, Huckabee 14, Giuliani 13
NH-R Actual: McCain 37, Romney 32, Huckabee 11, Giuliani 8
[margin close, but second-highest McCain margin among most recent polls, highest Huckabee, and highest Giuliani]

MI-D ARG: Clinton +25 over uncommitted
MI-D Actual: Clinton +15.5 over uncommitted
[second-highest margin among latest polls]

MI-R ARG: McCain 31, Romney 30, Huckabee 19, Paul 9
MI-R Actual: Romney 39, McCain 30, Huckabee 16, Paul 6
[tied for worst margin, wrong by 10 points, highest Huckabee, highest Paul]

SC-R ARG: Huckabee 33, McCain 26, Thompson 21, Romney 9, Giuliani 3, Paul 2
SC-R Actual: McCain 33, Huckabee 30, Thompson 16, Romney 15, Paul 4, Giuliani 2
[only poll in last two weeks to show Huckabee up or Thompson over 16; off by a whopping +10 points]

[yea]

good stuff derek, thanks. this looks similar to the rogue california poll that had obama ahead. however, this survey did have a decent sample size, so maybe even if the numbers are wrong it is indicitive of substantial movement toward obama in texas.

those sc and iowa results are a big WTF. i wonder if they have adjusted their methodology since then. they need to nail this texas race to regain credibility. still, even if they are wrong by 10-12 points, which would be well within the range of the prior mistakes, it still shows serious movement toward obama. +7,+8 for clinton in texas at this point is good news for obama with 3 weeks still to go until the primary.

[Derek]

I totally agree that a single-digit lead for Clinton is not what she wants right now.