For all you delegate-counters...

You can get Wisconsin results by congressional district here. Based on my crude delegate math, I'm coming up with an estimated total of Obama 42, Clinton 32. I explain in detail after the jump.

Anyway, I'm going to bed now, but Hawaii results will eventually be available here and here.

Oh, and that meaningless Washington beauty-contest primary? Those results are here -- though, annoyingly, you have to go to a different page to get the "percentage of precincts reporting" stat. Anyway, with 36% reporting, Hillary has an slight lead! She could move to 3-0 in meaningless primaries! Suggested victory speech: "First we're going to go to Michigan! And then we're going to go to Florida! And then we're going to lose the Washington caucuses, but win the meaningless primary! And then we're going to go to Denver and lose the nomination! YEAAARRH!!!"

About those Wisconsin delegates... according to the Green Papers, all the congressional districts have six delegates apiece, except for districts 5 and 6, which have five apiece, and district 2, which has eight. I explained the formulas for allocating delegates in five- and six-delegate districts here. As for the eight-delegate district, it's 4-4 unless the winner gets at least 1.29 times more votes than the loser (for 5-3), or 2.2 times more (for 6-2), or 4.33 times more (for 7-1). Looking only at the top two vote-getters, the percentages needed for each of those three scenarios are 56.25%, 68.75%, and 81.25%.

Anyway, based on what's been reported this far, it looks districts 1, 3, 7 and 8 will probably split 3-3; district 4 will probably go 4-2 for Obama; districts 5 and 6 will probably go 3-2 for Obama; and district 2 will probably go 5-3 for Obama. That would add up to a 27-21 Obama advantage in the district delegates, pending any changes as the remainder of the precincts report in.

And I think the current statewide tally of 55% to 44% would yield an at-large delegate margin of 15-11. So the overall totals would be Obama 42, Clinton 32.

Comments

[Joe Loy]

Re your provisional Delegate Allegations, well done, Dunn :}. You are hereby certified as an official Delegate Alligator ;>.

Yes & also in Washington state, Senator McCain (as Wolf Blitzer would put it :) Has Won, Has Won ~~ with (per CNN at 53% of precincts reporting) a stunning 49% (176,846) of the PV, to a negligible Combined 42% (151,330) for the irrepressible Huckabee (21 %, 76,886) AND the well-and-truly-Withdrawn newlyminted McCainiac & manuMitter-of-delegates, Romney (21%, 74,444). Yes, it surely appears that Governor Moroni's warm embrace :) plus the Establishmentarian benediction of the venerable Bush 41, have clearly Consolidated the party Footsoldiers of the Far Northwest behind their new Commander-in-chief, General John. :0

[David K.]

With 8% of the precincts reporting in Hawaii, Obama leads 77% to 23%, Obama has 2258 caucus voters, Hillary has an appropriate 666 :)

[MHiggo]

With 30 percent of statewide precincts reporting (40 percent urban Honolulu, 20 percent everyone else), it's:

Obama 5,436
Clinton 1,875

Edwards and Wee Dennis got votes, but nowhere near enough to get any delegates. There are reports of record turnout across the state, as much as 20 times normal levels.

[Joe Loy]

"Wee Dennis" ~ hee hee, MHiggo! :) Yes but surely there must have been some write-ins for Statuesque Elizabeth? :>

[yea]

there was some talk yesterday of tightening in the national polls. this national poll suggests movement in the other direction.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2032989820080220?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

[yea]

i realize this poll was taken before the plagiarism nonscense, but it also was taken before obama routes in hawaii and wisconsin. the fact that the movement was so strong is still significant.

[CD]

It's not plagiarism 'nonsense'. Talk to Mr. Biden about how he got kicked out of the arena for it.

[yea]

cd, the voters of wisconsin apparantly thought it was a non-story. they both have the same speech writer, and are friends, so its pretty easy to see how it happened. the story has no-traction with the mainstream media and is pretty much already dead. considering that obama has mccain and clinton attacking him non-stop now his continued gains in support and momentum are incredible.

more interestingly, i wonder if obama has actually overcome the bradley effect? the past few primaries have had obama do much better than the polls predicted. its cool pretty cool to watch a candidate transcend what had appeared to be a significant racial obstacle.

[CD]

This is hilarious:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-stein8feb08,0,3418234.column