Fool me once...

Will Virginia be New Hampshire Redux?

It does feel a bit that way. Now, as then, everyone is assuming that the only question is what Obama's margin will be. Now, as then, there is talk of an "epic blowout."

Will the sense of inevitability surrounding his chances of victory -- and the assumption that "high turnout" equals "big Obama win" -- actually be justified this time?

We shall see. I'll believe it when I see it, this time. And I don't care if the leaked exit polls show Obama up 95% to 5%. I want real numbers, dammit. Or at least a media "call." :)

P.S. In other news, Ron Paul is facing reality.

P.P.S. Back on the Democratic side, a Texas blogger offers what TNR's Michael Crowley calls an "incredibly thorough, district-by-district, demographic-based analysis" of the March 4 Texas primary, which concludes that "even a 5-point Hillary win in the statewide vote could leave Obama with a slight delegate advantage (thanks in part to Texas's screwy primary-caucus hybrid system)."

Meanwhile, more evidence of the Cult of Obama: fainting in the aisles.

P.P.P.S. Here's a good roundup of developments and musings on the Democratic race.

And here's a good observation from Politico's Ben Smith: "It's still a long month, and things can change. Having succumbed to conventional wisdom and more or less written Clinton off already after Iowa, I think I'll hold the obit this time."

Smith also links to a pro-Obama site which "mak[es] a case that seems to be gaining acceptance: That the more important count is the count of pledged delegates," and that therefore, superdelegates shouldn't be included in the overall delegate totals. This is absolutely true, as I mentioned yesterday, and I'm not just saying that because I support Obama over Clinton. It's all well and good to keep track of the currently "committed" superdelegates, but the principal "scoreboard" ought to be the pledged-delegate-only count, because they're the only ones whose votes are actually, truly "committed" to anyone (for the first two ballots anyway). The common practice of combining supers and non-supers into an undifferentiated numerical mass serves only to confuse the issue.

Oh, and about those superdelegates, Smith notes that there are actually now 794 of 'em, not 796. (Apropos of which, R.I.P., Super-Superdelegate Lantos.)

Comments

[yea]

i think the primary system will be overhauled after this race regardless of who wins. one other thing to remember, ohio has early voting and i think voting has either started or will start soon. this likely helps clinton, similar to how is seemingly helped her in california.

[anon]

Ron Paul has also called for a March on Washington!

http://www.ronpaulmarch.com/

Looks like it will be June 7. He's not going ending his presidential run any time soon.

[Angrier and Angrier]

Everything I have heard out of Virginia involves large crowds of black and young voters.

[4-7]

Weekly consparanoia report

Rush L just offered the anecdote that "obama may win, but hillary is going to be the nominee" because the clintons will do ANYTHING to get the presidency again.

Let's just keep this in mind.

www.saveobama.org

(Not a real website)

[Doug Mataconis]

4-7,

I don't agree with Rush much, but he's right about the Clinton's doing anything to win.

We will see fights over the superdelegates and over those delegates from Michigan and Florida.

This could make the `68 convention look like a tea party.

[Alasdair]

So you don't think that Obama should put Clinton on his ticket in the VP spot ?

(grin)

[4-7]

I think obama should not turn his back on hillary

[Steve]

This is the song that Obama reminds me of.

http://www.hamienet.com/midi7595_Superstar.html

Barack Obama, Superstar.

Who are you, what kind of change are you are talking about?

Barack Obama, Superstar,

Who are you, what kind of change are you are talking about?

Barack Obama, Superstar

Who are you, what kind of change are you talking about?

Adoph Hitler could really rally those masses, and Olde Joe Stalin could make them walk barefoot through broken glasses, And Ho Chin Minn, he could bring the crowd in, and that Po Pot he know how his words could make them hot...

Now do you believe?

Now Marshall Applewhite made them think that they were going to go to Heaven on a comet, and David Koresh he sent his faithful on a path to Armageddon. And of course we all know about olde Jim Jones. His people did what he told em and that Kool-aid got overflowin...

Now do you believe? (the mesmerized crowd shouts back Yes we Believe) Now do you believe?(louder) Yes, we believe! Hallelujah now get that sister some water (the front row of women then faints).

Barack Obama, Superstar,

Who are you, what kind of change are you are talking about?

Barack Obama, Superstar

Who are you, what kind of change are you talking about?

Now do you see yourself as as Che's Second comin... Or maybe you set yourself up on a path even higher. Perhaps you do see yourself as the new Messiah, start a new religion with you as its idol.

Do you believe?

Cults of personalities well they very rarely end well and with yours it could set the earth a trembling... For when you come unglued as all cult leaders in the end do, you could push that nuclear button and set the earth afire..

Barack Obama, Superstar,

Who are you, what kind of change are you are talking about?

Barack Obama, Superstar!

Who are you, what kind of change are you talking about?

Barack Obama, Superstar!

Turing America into one big Manson Family

Barack Obama, Superstar!

Turning America into one big Manson Family