"Floodgates open" after super-defection?

Very good news for Obama on two fronts tonight. First, it looks like he may be getting a huge union endorsement -- that of the national Service Employees International Union -- possibly at 1pm Friday.

Second, and even more importantly, a development that TPM's Eric Kleefeld says "may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy": a super-duper switcheroo! According to the New York Times:

Representative John Lewis, an elder statesman from the civil rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

[UPDATE, 12:52 AM: A late report suggests the Times may have jumped the gun; Lewis may not be switching after all. WTF? Is something fishy going on here?]

Mark Halperin calls Lewis's defection an "earthquake" and the "most serious symbolic threat to Clinton's nomination yet." He elaborates:

Lewis is a universally respected, historic figure who is the first prominent Democrat to go from squarely in Clinton’s camp to Obama’s. The rationale he gave to the New York Times strikes at the heart of the argument that has been circulating among many wavering, undecided superdelegates, and among those now in Clinton’s camp who are feeling pressure to switch. Floodgates could open. The timing could not be worse for Clinton. And those in the party and the press who want to write off her chances will be able to make a big deal about this development. Take whatever you thought Clinton’s chances of winning the nomination before Lewis’ decision and divide that number by as much as two — those are the odds of her winning now.

Michael Crowley says Halperin is exaggerating. "Obviously this is a nasty development for Hillary. ... It hurts. But an event that cuts her odds in half? That's how I would describe a big loss in Wisconsin. Not this."

Regarding Lewis's rationale, here's what the Times said:

“In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,” said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. “Something is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.”

Mr. Lewis, who carries great influence among other members of Congress, disclosed his decision in an interview in which he said that as a superdelegate he could “never, ever do anything to reverse the action” of the voters of his district, who overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama.

“I’ve been very impressed with the campaign of Senator Obama,” Mr. Lewis said. “He’s getting better and better every single day.”

And about those "floodgates"...

He also said he and other lawmakers would meet in the coming days to decide how they intended to weigh into the nominating fight. ...

“If I can be used as a mediator, a negotiator or a peacemaker, I’d be happy to step in,” Mr. Lewis said, adding that he intends to speak to both candidates in hopes of ending the race amicably in the next month. “I don’t want to see Mrs. Clinton damaged or Mr. Obama damaged.”

In fact, the floodgates may already be leaking. A slightly earlier AP article, written before Lewis made his switcheroo final, notes several other superdelegate defections -- either from Clinton to Obama, or from Clinton to undecided. Meanwhile, Obama is picking up endorsements. According to DemConWatch, his net superdelegate gain today was +4.

This could all lend further credence to the Wisconsin-as-mini-firewall theory. If Hillary is swept again next Tuesday (losing Wisconsin, Hawaii, and the non-binding Washington "beauty contest" primary), those floodgates might really open. It's two very long weeks between next Tuesday and March 4.

Comments

[Joe Loy]

Ah ha, me Boys.

SEIU is One thing. / A Big thing, yes. Union Boots on the Ground & So forth.

But John Lewis is quite Another. Yer man is an oldtime Party Loyalist if ever there was one. Hell, back in The '06, even whilst Things were falling Apart & the Center could not hold, he came to Connecticut and bravely plumped for old Civilrightsmarcher Joe Lieberman in the hostile heart of North Hartford. / Yeah, Lewis is significant.

On the Other hand ~

"If Hillary is swept again next Tuesday (losing Wisconsin, Hawaii, and the non-binding Washington 'beauty contest' primary), those floodgates might really open..."

Yeah: IF she is. / I'll Give the beauteous Barack the Nonbinding Beautycontest (unless of course Hil, as we like to Spell it on this here blog, "eeks" it out, in which case she'll democratically demand that Delegates be Seated pursuant thereto: Eke! :) but watchout for Wisconsin, I tellyez: for as that eminent Dimmycrat, Paddy J Buchanan :> put it the other day, "It isn't All Madison, y'know" & somesay that Bill IS the Beer that made M'waukee Famous ;}. Additionally, don't be Too quick to lay Claim to Hawaii. They've flown in Chelsea. Let's play Hardball. :>

[Derek]

"first prominent Democrat to go from squarely in Clinton's camp to Obama's"

I think that's important in two regards. First, it quells this "don't count the superdelegates" garbage, because, well, we know that the commitments so far have been pretty firm. Second, it reinforces the fact that we can count on the present, and where people stand today. Yesterday Clinton had this superdelegate; today, Obama has him. It's a nice way of showing the present state of the race.

[Angrier and Angrier]

It's still way too early to call the nomination for Obama. However, he is obviously getting his ducks in a row in an effort to avoid a fight at the convention. I think it is plausible Obama could lose both Texas and Ohio, but stay within a few percentage points, and still end up with the nomination based on his delegate strategy.

[Derek]

Also, I count three delegates who've switched this week (one to "uncommitted," then Obama; and two straight to Obama). I have no idea how prominent any are, though--one DNC and two Representatives. That's way too meta for me.

[JT]

Now John Lewis is saying the report is inaccurate. I live in John Lewis' district. I used to live in Newt's district. Only in a southern state can you move 10 miles and have such diametrically different representatives.

[Brendan]

JT, I've been trying to follow this story, and thus far all I've seen are statements from John Lewis's spokeswoman, nothing from the man himself. Have you seen an actual comment from Lewis?

The NYT reporter is standing by his story; he claims Lewis said "unequivocally" that he would cast his superdelegate vote for Obama. Lewis's spokeswoman says the article is "inaccurate" but doesn't say what would be "accurate." So it's not at all clear what's going on.

My best guess, trying to put 2 and 2 together, is that Lewis regards his superdelegate vote as something separate and apart from his "endorsement," and he didn't intend for his superdelegate vote commitment to Obama (which is based on his district voting overwhelmingly for Obama) to constitute a "defection" from Clinton's camp or an "endorsement" of Obama -- and when it got (inevitably) played that way in the media, he was taken aback because he didn't think that's the necessary implication of what he said.