Enter my Super Tuesday contest!
The first ever Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contest (or if you prefer, Super Duper Pooper Scooper Trooper Blooper Tuesday Prediction Contest) is now online and accepting entries!
Just follow the link and submit your predictions. PLEASE NOTE: You may want to print your entry page before submitting it, as you won't automatically get a copy of your picks sent to you.
The deadline to enter is noon Tuesday. Details after the jump.
The scoring is simple: one point per correct prediction of the winner* of each primary/caucus. After the results come in, I'll declare three winners: whoever did best predicting the Democratic winners, whoever did best on the GOP side, and a combined winner who did the best in predicting both parties' primaries combined. Tiebreakers are the predicted California delegate tallies for the front-runners, Hillary Clinton and John McCain; I'll use The Green Papers to get the numbers.
As usual with these contests, the prize is simply bragging rights and a little piece of Irish Trojan history. But really, ain't that enough? :)
Good luck!
*In determining the "winner" of each state, wherever there is a conflict between two different interpretations of the result, I will use whatever result most closely approximates the overall presidential preference of the individual voters. Thus, for instance, if one candidate wins the statewide popular vote while another wins more delegates, the popular-vote winner is what matters for purposes of this contest.
And presumably wherever there is a conflict between different interpretations of who is the statewide popular-vote winner :), you will Defenestrate the infamous News Media Returns and uncomplainingly Await the certified Official results from the relevant Officials, of the State or Party as the case-by-Case may Be ;}. Waw haw haw haw... Given the Plentitude of Opportunities for the dreaded Statistical Tie Event next Tuesday, it is Not Altogether Unlikely that One will occur. / And given that We Have no automatic close-vote Recount in Presidential Primaries, because we wisely recognize that statutorially They Have no "winners" nor "losers" :>, it is Entirely likely that The One will be: Dems, Connecticut.
Hee hee hee hee... "FRAUUUD! Con-neh-tuh-CUT! Con-neh-tuh-CUT!!! :)
Posted by: Joe Loy | Feb 2, 2008 10:01:07 AM
Dang. This is going to be a lot harder to predict than the November election. This time I don't have access to months worth of polling data from several different outfits when trying to predict the results.
Posted by: Mike | Feb 2, 2008 11:28:58 AM
No point-spread requirement?
:)
Posted by: Brian Foster | Feb 2, 2008 1:52:58 PM
Joe....I am wondering if the CT primary is sort of looking like the Senate Primary in 2006. It started off as fairly strong for the establishment war-mongering :) candidate (Lieberman/Clinton) and now the race has changed to a lead for the lefty anti-war candidate (Lamont/Obama). So if Obama wins CT and eventually the nomination is he likely to be in trouble in CT in the fall when he runs against the Lieberman supported McCain???
Posted by: Ken | Feb 2, 2008 2:09:25 PM
CNN reporting Edwards will NOT endorse before Super Tuesday . . .
Posted by: Brian Foster | Feb 2, 2008 2:50:11 PM
Arrgh.
Posted by: Jay Johnson | Feb 2, 2008 3:36:35 PM
Ken.... to pair Healthcaregiver Hillary with General Joe as the establishment war-mongering :) candidates is clearly an Insult both to Establishment Warmongering and to Old Blood & Guts Lieberman :). But That aside :}, yeah, yours is a Not Implausible analogical scenario ;>.
But No, I don't think CT would go for McCain over Obama in November. Possible but unlikely. / Saint Joe's Nov. '06 re-election (with Just Barely Shy of an absolute Majority in that 5-way race) came Despite his hawkishness, not Because of it. We just Like him, is all :}.
Posted by: Joe Loy | Feb 2, 2008 3:40:33 PM
Jay Johnson, you poor longsuffering issuesoriented
johnnyrebgood American citizen :}. Will the Oddsmakers never relent? Will the Horseracers never have the decency to find a Finish line? (And did you Ever see so many equine south-ends galloping North? :> Which somehow reminds me of the gallant cavalry gen'rul who declared "Mah headquarters is in th' Saddle", prompting the infantry private to mutter "Ah wonder whar his Hindquarters is." :) Aaaaand, DOWN the stretch they come! ;]Posted by: Joe Loy | Feb 2, 2008 6:46:20 PM
Not sure if this means anything, but my VERY Republican father said today that Obama is looking like the best choice. I never thought I'd hear that from him! Based on that alone, I think Obama has a good chance to take CT on Tuesday!
Posted by: Bonnie | Feb 2, 2008 7:46:22 PM
Alas, very Republican fathers can't vote in Connecticut's very Democratic closed primary. :) But I do think it means something. I have heard a lot of different rock-ribbed Republicans talking about how great Obama is. The more policy-oriented ones say it out of fear (because they worry that he will do for liberalism what Ronald Reagan did for conservatism), while the more personality-focused ones say it out of unbridled admiration. But they all agree that he's great. If he's the nominee, I believe we will see the phenomenon of "Obama Republicans" just as we saw "Reagan Democrats" back in the day. And wouldn't that be something?
If Democrats don't seize the opportunity to nominate such an awesome choice over such a divisive one, they deserve what they'll get.
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Feb 2, 2008 9:36:06 PM