Dobson to endorse Huckabee
That'll help in Kansas and Louisiana tomorrow...
What Huck needs is for some other unrelated major breaking-news event to happen tomorrow, distracting the media, so he can quietly win KS and LA, thus signaling to his attentive Virginia supporters that he's still viable, without getting the attention of McCain's Virginia supporters. Thus, the McCainiac independents/centrists in the Old Dominion State will vote for Obama on Tuesday (and perhaps a few McCainiac security/experience voters will vote for Hillary), and Huck's true believers will be able to drive a low-turnout, winner-take-all upset...
P.S. Halperin's schedule shows that Huck is in Kansas -- not Louisiana -- all day today. Does that mean he thinks Louisiana is in the bag, or that it's unwinnable? Or just that he's only one man, and can't be in two places at once? (This is one of those times where a super-superdelegate would come in handy.)
P.P.S. After the jump, I do my flips about Huck's chances in Washington state, which may be better than you think!
According to the Washington state Democratic Party's FAQ,
tomorrow's Dem precinct caucuses are open to all voters (although "when
you sign in you are asked to declare that you are a Democrat," a
declaration which is governed "by the honor system."). If I understand
correctly, Washington, like Tennessee, doesn't have official party
registration, so being "a Democrat" is purely a state of mind. Will the
Seattle area's squishy independents and even centrist Republicans --
i.e., McCain's base -- have caucus-day conversions, "declare"
themselves Democrats, and vote for Obama (who, BTW, is having one of
revivals rallies in Seattle today)... thus allowing Huckabee to potentially win Kansas, win Louisiana, and do better than expected in Washington?? (He'll be strong in the rural wasteland heartland of eastern Washington, yes?)
By the way, if it seems like I'm having too much fun spinning these Huckabee-surprises-everyone scenarios... well, I am. :) Just to be clear, I don't want Huck to win the nomination. But you know how I feel about chaos!
P.P.P.S. Before Romney dropped out, Survey USA had Washington at McCain 32%, Romney 31%, Huckabee 24%. That's much better for Huck than I would have anticipated!
Forget "better than expected"; Huckabee can win Washington if he beats McCain by slightly less than 2-to-1 among the former Mittheads. Sounds do-able!!
I suggest an eleventh-hour visit to Gonzaga and/or Wazzu this evening! ;) The Sunday-morning headline "Huckabee sweeps Louisiana, Kansas, Washington" would be a real game-changer, no? (Of course, it would also eliminate any chance of a "stealth" victory in Virginia. Unless that unrelated breaking-news event is really big.)
P.P.P.P.S. According to SurveyUSA, that 32-31-24 split came from a group of 221 self-identified Republicans, 63% of whom do not plan to vote in tomorrow's caucuses.
(A much larger percentage plans to vote in the meaningless
beauty-contest primary on the 19th. God bless America.) Hmm... I wonder
which group, the McCainiacs or the Hucksters, does better among the 32%
who do plan to vote. Survey USA doesn't say, but I have a guess!
SurveyUSA says they "will re-commence interviewing, without Romney, and will endeavor to have new WA opinion poll results for you within 24 hours." I, for one, eagerly await those results!
UPDATE/CORRECTION: Brian Foster comments:
Yes, SUSA does say [which candidate does better among likely voters], as shown here.
Among the 30% who said yes, they are planning to participate in the caucus, it's Romney at 30%, Huck and McCain tied at 28%.
Of course, 30% of 221 is not very many people -- actually, SUSA gives us the actual counts. It's 66 people, and it breaks down as follows:
Extrapolate from these small cell sizes at your peril. :)
Indeed. But the numbers match my preconceived notions, and therefore, I conclude that they are obviously correct! :)