Delegate math

Virginia has eleven congressional districts; Maryland has eight. There are six 4-delegate districts (VA-1, VA-2, VA-5, VA-6, VA-9, MD-6), five 5-delegate districts (VA-4, VA-7, VA-10, MD-1, MD-2), five 6-delegate districts (VA-3, VA-11, MD-3, MD-5, MD-7), and three 7-delegate districts (VA-8, MD-4, MD-8).

Virginia results by district are here. After the jump, I look at the delegate math for each type of district.

The 4-delegate districts will split 2-2 unless one candidate (presumably Obama) gets 1.667 times more than the other candidate, or 62.5% assuming no votes for anyone but the top two. If that happens, it'll be 3-1. It can't be 4-0 unless the loser is under 15%.

The 5-delegate districts will go 3-2 for the winner unless the winner gets 2.333 times more votes than the loser (or 70% of the top two's total), in which case they'll break 4-1. Again, it can't be 5-0 unless the loser is under 15%. The two municipal districts of Washington, D.C. also fall into this category.

The 6-delegate districts will split 3-3 unless the winner gets 1.4 times more votes than the loser (or 58.3% in a two-way race), in which case they'll break 4-2. If the winner gets 3 times more than the loser (or 75% in a two-way race), they'll break 5-1. Again, 6-0 is effectively impossible.

Finally, the 7-delegate districts will go 4-3 for the winner unless said winner gets 1.8 times more than the loser (or 64.3%), in which case they'll break 5-2 instead. A 6-1 split is very unlikely; the winer would need 3.667 times more than the loser (or 78.6%).

Comments

[B. Minich]

CNN is giving the delegate lead to Obama.

[Brendan Loy]

Yup. It's totally dumb, though, because they're including the superdelegates in the total. Obama is now way ahead among the pledged delegates, and that's the real story. As I keep saying, looking at the supers and the pledges as an undifferentiated mass is misleading and stupid.