California dreaming spinning
I've been wondering whether California's vote tally distinguishes between absentee votes and in-person votes, such that it'll be possible to determine, based on actual numbers (not just polls), the "Election Day only" vote tally. Page 7 of the state's 2006 Statement of Vote indicates that the answer is yes. Assuming those numbers are available in real-time, if I were the Obama campaign, I would keep a running count of the "Election Day only" numbers, and be ready to quote the latest numbers from that count to media interviewers at every opportunity.
Polls suggest that Clinton will win among the early voters by a substantial margin, while Obama will win among those who go to the polls today. If that's true, Obama should be able to spin even a high-single-digits loss as a sign that he's got the momentum going forward into the post-Feb. 5 states. But he needs to get started with that spin immediately, before the "Comeback Kid" CW solidifies. Hence the need for a running tally, so they can say something like this:
Wolf, the final outcome in California may be too close to call at this point, but what's clear is that while Senator Clinton was favored by people who voted three weeks ago, Senator Obama won a clear majority of California voters who voted on Election Day. He is currently leading 54% to 43% among that group. Obama is currently the leading choice among Democratic voters, and we have the momentum going forward.
If California is close, the spin war tonight will be unbelievable.
That's what they'll be saying whether they have the running tally to support it or not. :)
Posted by: Brian Foster | Feb 5, 2008 1:09:44 PM
I think I found the real reason to vote for Obama: according to the NYT, Barack's a Mac and Hillary's a PC.
As fellow mac users...
Posted by: Jim Hu | Feb 5, 2008 2:24:41 PM